ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS

Bank earnings season is well underway with DICK BOVE, the dean of bank analysts, concluding the sector’s outlook is bleak. Four of Wall Street’s premier league banks — JP Morgan, Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America — reported on Friday. A multitude of write offs and some $2.9 billion in charges linked to the rescue of regional banks weighed heavily on results. Citigroup reported a quarterly loss of $1.8 billion and announced it would eliminate 20,000 jobs worldwide, or 10 percent of its workforce. BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, says a fundamental shift is underway in US banking as new rules and regulations are forcing banks to offload assets and become more risk averse. “The US government does not want the banks to grow,” says BOVE. In this changed environment, there will be winners and losers, he says. Why has the US economy defied Wall Street expectations and skirted recession? By some measures, the economy should already have been in sharp contraction as rising interest rates, borrowing costs and inflation pinch consumers. BOVE traces the surprising resiliency of the US economy to the massive stimulus spending during the Covid lockdowns. That spending saw consumer net worth grow by $41 trillion from the start to the official end of the Covid lockdowns from early 2020 to the middle of 2023, according to BOVE. Still, MAT VAN ALSTYNE, says polling shows American consumers are feeling downbeat on the economy in sharp contrast to the upbeat message of the official data. “People don’t feel good,” adds VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. “We have rents rising, high rates, the world seems to be chaotic and things are falling apart.” Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION examines the SEC voting to expand investors' ability to buy cryptocurrency in the form of ETS and mutual funds. And there’s more. Joining the CONVERSATION is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE Questions & Comments: podcast@odeoncap.com

Lies, damn lies and statistics? DICK BOVE, once again, challenges the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), this time attacking its announcement that the US economy generated 216,000 jobs in December as the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent. Using government data on hirings, layoffs, people quitting jobs and hourly wages, BOVE concludes December’s BLS report is widely off the mark. “We lost 150,000 jobs last month,” says BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. “It’s an outrageous misstatement of these numbers by the press that creates major losses in the hands of investors,” he adds. In fact, BOVE sees weaker signs in the labor markets than is acknowledged by other analysts. Are we therefore, inching ever closer to that long anticipated recession? The CONVERSATION examines the US money supply which BOVE has been tracking for months. The latest data shows the M2 money supply continues to shrink with the first significant drop in M2 since the Great Depression. Some analyst see that as a harbinger of recession. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says BOVE’S analysis of the US Money Supply is on target. Meanwhile, bank earnings season is upon us. BOVE, a veteran bank analyst, expects dismal results and explains why. Will we see a sharp decline in 2024 in management fund fees for ETF mutual funds and other funds? One report hints at fee reductions. The CONVERSATION also looks at the lessons of history – how many nations supposedly neutral, reportedly profiteered by quietly working with the Third Reich. What might this suggest about the stance of “non-aligned” nations today as the brutal war in Ukraine grinds on, asks our host JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

All eyes are on the US Fed and Central bankers worldwide at the start of 2024. Investors are increasingly convinced this year will see a pivot to lower interest rates and the end of money tightening that saw the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate reach the current 5.25% to 5.50% range. Federal Reserve posts suggest that there is a possibility the Fed could cut interest rates as much as six times in 2024, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. BOVE believes the Fed’s approach will be measured and may not begin until the middle of 2024. However, the real question is whether companies will benefit more from interest rate cuts than from a diminution of inflation. Thus opens a lively exchange on conflicting reports on company pricing policies at the peak of our recent inflation. BOVE cites various studies and reports, and identifies the term ‘greedflation,’ coined by former Labor Secretary, ROBERT REICH. The claim is that many companies were able to significantly expand profit margins with no consumer push back as prices escalated. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE presents a study showing how companies grew margins by a median of 49 percent. BOVE concludes that if indeed companies were engaged in ‘greedflation’ then the path to profitability in 2024 will be through expanded unit sales. The CONVERSATION looks at some upsides of falling interest rates. BOVE notes that the Federal government debt could plunge to a level below 2022 fiscal total with a fall in interest rates. Declining rates should be a boost for consumers. Still, BOVE believes the US economy is really slowing down despite increased holiday spending. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

All eyes are on the US Fed and Central bankers worldwide at the start of 2024. Investors are increasingly convinced this year will see a pivot to lower interest rates, and the end of money tightening. This same money tightening saw the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate reach the current 5.25% to 5.50% range. Federal Reserve posts suggest a possibility the Fed could cut interest rates as much as six times in 2024, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. BOVE believes the Fed’s approach will be measured and rate cuts may not begin until the middle of 2024. However, the real question is whether companies will benefit more from interest rate cuts than from a diminution of inflation. Thus opens a lively exchange on conflicting reports on company pricing policies at the peak of our recent inflation. BOVE cites various studies and reports, and identifies the term ‘greedflation,’ coined by former Labor Secretary, ROBERT REICH. The claim is that many companies were able to significantly expand profit margins with no consumer push back as prices escalated. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE presents a study showing how companies grew margins by a median of 49 percent. BOVE concludes that if indeed companies were engaged in ‘greedflation’ then the path to profitability in 2024 will be through expanded unit sales. The CONVERSATION looks at some upsides of falling interest rates. BOVE notes that the Federal government debt could plunge to a level below 2022 fiscal total with a fall in interest rates. Declining rates should be a boost for consumers. Still, BOVE believes the US economy is really slowing down despite increased holiday spending. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

In our final episode of 2023, DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, explains his rationale for his upgrade of five bank stocks, from Hold to Buy: Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB), PNC Financial Services (NYSE:PNC), and Truist Financial Corp. (NYSE:TFC). It could arguably be the handiwork of the Federal Reserve, which has sent clear signals that the war against inflation is over. After a massive series of rate hikes, the next step is the other direction, rate cuts, a move which factors into BOVE'S latest outlook for bank stocks. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

Is America now in recession, or within striking distance? DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, thinks so. As the US stock market skyrockets in anticipation of a series of interest rate cuts in 2024, BOVE sees huge trouble in sections of the US economy. Forget about the standard textbook definition of recession—two consecutive quarters of declining GDP—the cracks are already appearing. Negative equity on automobiles in America, for instance, is at the highest level in three years. (Two consecutive quarters of declines are not always applied in the designation of recessions today, according to MAT VAN ALSTYNE, recalling the most recent bouts of recession.) While investors anticipate rate cuts, BOVE says the Fed has muddied the waters with conflicting communications from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and separate comments by Fed governors. "Investors don't care, they see inflation has come down and they see rates coming down," he added. BOVE is out with a new report. Who Owns the US Federal Debt? Who Will Pay For It? With the US National Debt at over $33 trillion and rising, deficit spending could hit some $2.2 trillion in fiscal 2023. Now foreign buyers of US Treasuries are scaling back, raising questions on who will step in. Meanwhile, the brutual war in Ukraine continues to grind on. "My view is that Russia is winning, " says BOVE, "not so much as in Ukraine but in the global financial system." Joining the CONVERSATION, our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, outlines Putin's strategy for leveraging the exit of foreign companies from Russia to his advantange, a tax that has contributed to his nation's coffers. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

The Annual Senate hearing on US banking was different this year, turning most of the attention to a single topic—the proposed new banking regulations that would radically reshape the industry. In years past, the committee grilled the assembled CEOs of America’s top banks on a wide range of topics, from assisting underserved communities to community development. Not this year as the leaders of eight banks, among them Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan and Bryan Moynihan of Bank of America, gathered in DC. As DICK BOVE recalls, there was widespread criticism of the new rules on both sides of the aisles and among the bankers. BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, said the industry view is that the rules would reduce bank lending as well as hurt the US economy. “This raises the question as to why are these regulations being discussed when everyone is against them,” according to BOVE. “The reason is that the government cannot meet its obligations.” In an interesting twist, as banks' capital requirements increase, and as they scale back in a range of money making activities, US banks may become larger buyers of US Treasuries. The CONVERSATIONS assesses one strategy— stock buybacks — many US banks and other public companies have used to shore up their stock price. “I believe in the free markets but this is disgusting,” says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. Meanwhile, BOVE is out with his latest measure of the US Money Supply. He explains the methodology and why this is substantially larger than the Fed's official count of the US Money Supply. The CONVERSATION also parses the latest data on inflation and labor as the Fed deliberates this week on the trajectory of US interest rates. While inflation continues to cool, there may be some evidence of “a little bit more heat” in the inflation numbers than is immediately evident, according to VAN ALSTYNE. BOVE reports on wage data based on college and non-college educated workers. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, our host, quotes the opinion of one commentator: US universities are pursuing political agendas instead of excellence. Elsewhere, we look at significant global events. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

The Annual Senate hearing on US banking was different this year, turning most of the attention to a single topic—the proposed new banking regulations that would radically reshape the industry. In years past, the committee grilled the assembled CEOs of America’s top banks on a wide range of topics, from assisting underserved communities to community development. Not this year as the leaders of eight banks, among them Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan and Bryan Moynihan of Bank of America, gathered in DC. As DICK BOVE recalls, there was widespread criticism of the new rules on both sides of the aisles and among the bankers. BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, said the industry view is that the rules would reduce bank lending as well as hurt the US economy. “This raises the question as to why are these regulations being discussed when everyone is against them,” according to BOVE. “The reason is that the government cannot meet its obligations.” In an interesting twist, as banks' capital requirements increase, and as they scale back in a range of money making activities, US banks may become larger buyers of US Treasuries. The CONVERSATION assesses one strategy— stock buybacks — many US banks and other public companies have used to shore up their stock price. “I believe in the free markets but this is disgusting,” says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. Meanwhile, BOVE is out with his latest measure of the US Money Supply. He explains the methodology and why this is substantially larger than the Fed's official count of the US Money Supply. The CONVERSATION also parses the latest data on inflation and labor as the Fed deliberates this week on the trajectory of US interest rates. While inflation continues to cool, there may be some evidence of “a little bit more heat” in the inflation numbers than is immediately evident, according to VAN ALSTYNE. BOVE reports on wage data based on college and non-college educated workers. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, our host, quotes the opinion of one commentator: US universities are pursuing political agendas instead of excellence. Elsewhere, we look at significant global events. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

With the US economy still perked up with trillions of dollars created during the Covid-19 pandemic to stimulate the financial system, with inflation easing, and expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024 cheering up investors, the markets are responding in kind. The S&P 500 is hot, rising 8.9% in November, investment banking is booming, and there's a feel-good nationwide ripple effect. Homeowners too, are enjoying a surge in home equity values. Still, it is a tale of two economies. "The rich are really getting richer now, and the poor are up against significant issues," says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "Are the consumers with the most money going to continue to drive the game? Or, is it now the consumets who are unable to pay their loans? Will they drive this game?" Meanwhile, interest rates cuts are the buzz of Wall Street. Many investors see a series of rate cuts by the US Fed in 2024. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says it may not be that straightforward. "The Idea that the Fed commences an easing cycle voluntarily," he says, "by preemptively cutting rates because they think they have gone far enough [and] now want to engineer a soft landing - that is phenomenal news." But it warns it may not be that simple. Elsewhere, BOVE doubles down on his research on US housing trends, repeating his expectations for a housing bust based on demographic and census trends. BOVE is highly critical of new research on housing by the Harvard University Joint Center for Housing. "The university should be ashamed of itself for producing this dribble," he says. JOHN AIDAN, our host, questions BOVE on his basic assumptions from regional trends to evidence of vast tracks of ghost towns across America. Questions & Comments: podcast@odeoncap.com

With the US economy still perked up with trillions of dollars created during the Covid-19 pandemic to stimulate the financial system, with inflation easing, and expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024, the markets are responding in kind. The S&P 500 is hot, rising 8.9% in November, investment banking is booming, and there's a feel-good nationwide ripple effect. Homeowners too, are enjoying a surge in home equity values, an average of $95,900 in the past three years. That's on top of earlier gains fuelled in part by stimulus payments, and outlays during the Covid-19 pandemic Still, it is a tale of two economies. "The rich are really getting richer now, and the poor are up against significant issues," says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "Are the consumers with the most money going to continue to drive the game? Or, is it now the consumers who are unable to pay their loans? Will they drive this game?" Meanwhile, interest rates cuts are the buzz of Wall Street. Many investors see a series of rate cuts by the US Fed in 2024. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says it may not be that straightforward. "The Idea that the Fed commences an easing cycle voluntarily," he says, "by preemptively cutting rates because they think they have gone far enough [and] now want to engineer a soft landing - that is phenomenal news." But Van Alstyne warns it may not be that simple. Elsewhere, BOVE doubles down on his research on US housing trends, repeating his expectations for a housing bust based on demographic and census trends. BOVE is highly critical of new research on housing by the Harvard University Joint Center for Housing. "The university should be ashamed of itself for producing this dribble," he says. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, our host, questions BOVE on his basic assumptions from regional trends to evidence of vast tracks of ghost towns across America. Questions & Comments: podcast@odeoncap.com

US banks are staring at rising loan losses among clients in the private equity markets. These customers, operating conglomerates and other businesses, are struggling on debt repayments as higher interest rates take a toll, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, in a new report. “You’d be amazed if you subtracted the net increase in debt from the cash flow statements of American companies, at how many are not generating enough cash,” he says. BOVE is forecasting multiple billions of dollars in bank loan losses in this sector in the coming months. “These losses are going to bankrupt a lot of companies,” he adds. Meanwhile, BOVE says it’s premature to suggest the Fed is ready to call it done in its so far successful campaign to tamp down inflation. In good part, that’s because of the Fed’s tight monetary policy, a policy which has a direct influence on interest rates. Total assets at the Fed have been in steady decline for months. BOVE says the Fed may also raise the Fed Funds rate at least one more time, meaning a hike of 25-basis-points. Higher rates have inflicted financial pain all around, including in debt financing costs of the US government. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says the government has, nonetheless, taken its eye off the financial ball, as political dysfunction rages in Congress. Elsewhere, we look what it takes to be regarded as “rich and affluent” in America today as the ranks of millionaires swell to record levels. JOHN AIDAN BYRNE presents historical data of how being a millionaire about a century ago in America had a different financial meaning than today. We also look at global events. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

In an in-depth new report, DICK BOVE sees the makings of a US housing bust. The latest data from the National Association of Realtors shows the pace of home sales plunged to its lowest level in more than 13 years in October, with an uptick in the median home prices. High mortgage rates are cited for the tightening conditions, falling home sales and reduced inventory. BOVE looks beyond the latest malaise. Housing unit growth now exceeds the growth in the US population, he says. Moreover, the money supply that funded growth is now declining. "I think we're headed for a peak in housing activity," according to BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "You'll see a decline in housing activity; you'll see a decline in production, housing prices are going to come down. There's going to be loan losses." Meanwhile, the pace of inflation is slowing with a range of commodity prices in sharp decline. Some retailers see a period of deflation. US government data shows, nonetheless, steady if not strong consumer purchasing activity. Consumers are enjoying the "wealth effect" of a rising stock market, with growing home equity fuelling a feel good spending climate, according to MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. BOVE also discusses developments in the bank sector, from layoffs at Citi to the constraints of new banking regulations. Joining the CONVERSATIONS is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

Inflation eased in October with consumer prices up 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday November 14. That's a smaller annual increase in the consumer price index (CPI) than the month before when inflation came in at 3.7%. Inflation was flat on a monthly basis. "The markets have taken off like a rocket today under the assumption that inflation has been beaten," said DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. The Fed, which embarked on an aggressive interest rate hike campaign, is credited for the sharp fall in inflation from its peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022. "The Fed is now in a very strong place," says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. Meanwhile, BOVE is out with a comprehensive new report on the unprecedented rise in the net worth of American households and non-profit institutions. "Americans are filthy rich. Thousands are becoming millionaires every year," he says. Still, VAN ALSTYNE says as many as 40 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. Our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, reminds us of the Gini index, or Gini co-efficient of income inequality, frequently referenced by BOVE and VAN ALSTYNE, which paints a dark picture of America's income distribution. Meanwhile, there's inflation and then deflation. Inflation is finally emerging in Japan after years of falling prices. China, on the other hand, is battling deflationary pressures. China has many challenges to overcome in its economy, according to BOVE. Questions & Comments: podcast@odeoncap.com

US job growth cooled in October as the Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed the unemployment rate rising to 3.9%, the highest since January 2022, up from 3.8% in September. Employers added 150,000 jobs, half the September gains, and the smallest increase in jobs since June, according to the Bureau's establishment numbers. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, calls the Bureau's reporting 'specious.' Still, BOVE says the evidence points to a deterioration in the labor markets. The economy on the jobs front is 'slowing meaningfully,' he adds. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, says the Bureau's report shows a massive number of the jobs created were in part time employment. Many Americans are now holding multiple, part-time jobs to make ends meet, VAN ALSTYNE says. "This report is a disaster," he adds. Meanwhile, another sign of stress in the US economy comes from the latest data on auto loan sales and delinquencies. Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION looks at the explosion in assets under management (AUM) in the wealth management industry. Some of the largest asset managers have seen a surge in money inflows. BOVE cites Bank of America which estimates industry AUM has soared $40 trillion in the past decade to a staggering $65 trillion. Where is this money coming from, BOVE asks. Joining the CONVERSATION is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE.

With wars and uncertainty across the globe—and the US mired in political polarization and economic fear—the CONVERSATION casts a wide net from the US to China. China, the world's second largest economy, is showing fresh signs of weakening. The CONVERSATION asks pointed questions on the latest US economic growth numbers. US gross domestic product, surged at a 4.9% annualized pace in the third quarter, eclipsing the 4.7% estimate. Was it too good to be true? DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, explains why the headline number is a misreading of the true state of growth this past summer. Growth was milder than blockbuster. In part, that's because GDP for the third quarter is padded with inventory building. Meanwhile, as American consumers pile on more debt, Capital One reports a rise in its customer delinquency rates. The CONVERSATION plays an electronic program that provides self-directed scenarios for hypothetically reducing America's balooning deficits, and national debt. "You have a revenue problem, where the US is going to run out of money. You have a spending problem where the US is going to run out of money," says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, co-founder and managing partner at ODEON, explaining the various options for bolstering America's fiscal health. "So, you can either cut spending, or increasing revenue, or do a combination of both." Our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, urges restraint on reform of America's much cherished Social Security program. Elsewhere, BOVE offers more insight on his recent Open Letter to JP Morgan. BOVE also questions the official reason JP Morgan's CEO, JAMIE DIMON, is planning to sell one million shares of the company stock. Questions & Comments: podcast@odeoncap.com

The U.S. government posted a $1.7 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2023, a significant 23% jump from the prior year. Revenues declined and outlays for Social Security, Medicare and record-high interest costs on the federal debt raced ahead. "Nobody in Washington is interested in controlling spending," warns DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. The Treasury Department said the deficit came in as the largest since a $2.78 trillion gap in 2021 padded by COVID spending. ODEON co-founder, MAT VAN ALSTYNE, expressed shock at the plunge in individual income tax collections in the current fiscal year. Meanwhile, US car loan delinquencies are at a near three decade high, and consumers are defaulting on credit car loans at the highest pace in 10 years. Once again, some market experts are sounding the alarm for the long anticipated recession. Abroad, there is trouble in the Middle East, Ukraine and domestic tension in America. Still, the lessons of history may offer us some relief and positive hope for the future, says BOVE. Joining the CONVERSATION is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

It's bank earnings seasons with the four big US banks and one investment bank having so far reported. The picture is positive as measured by earnings. But the underlying picture shows challenges for the banks from pressure to increase their equity to proposed new rules condemned by the industry. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, brings us his analysis on bank earnings and the latest challenges. Consumer spending exceeded expectation in September. Still, BOVE says the American consumer is showing signs of stress, laying out his case why spending is near a new tipping point. Meanwhile, the war between Israel and Hamas has shifted global dynamics, according to the Wall Street Journal. DICK and MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner share their views as investors wrestle with a changed and volatile environment. Elsewhere, there's the costly Green New Deal. Is it as clean as it may sound? We'll discuss. Joining the Conversation is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

The CONVERSATION shares some frank and timely commentary on the shocking tragedy in Israel as the world watched the deadly horror unfold. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP offers his thoughts. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, shares some personal history, and raises concerns about American leadership. "We need leaders who have a world vision, " he says. "What is America's role in Ukraine? Nobody could tell us! What is our goal in Israel? What is our goal in Taiwan?" The CONVERSATION opens with a detailed examination of the latest US jobs numbers for September. With job gains wildly exceeding expectations, BOVE nevertheless explains why he is unimpressed. "I don't believe these jobs are creating any surge for the economy," he says. Our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, presents some signs of green shoots in the manufacturing sector. Are these a positive start to a revival in the largely moribund US manufacturing sector? BOVE presents his outlook and analysis on US banks. "Bank stocks have been horrible performers," he says. What comes next for the unremarkable bank sector? Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, offers his case for what has driven the 10-year treasury yield to its highest level in 16 years. Borrowing costs are soaring. BOVE identifies the sharp reduction, over $1 trillion, in the US Money Supply for the rise in the 10-year yield. The US Treasury is feeling the ripple effects. “The Treasury is paying money to the Fed as it is losing money on its operations,” says BOVE. The CONVERSATION also discusses two opposite sides of the Fed’s latest challenges. Professor Jason Furman of Harvard says losses at the Fed Reserve don’t matter. Alex J Pollack, writing in The Hill, disagrees, describing the Fed’s accumulated operating losses “a landmark event.” BOVE explains why the losses impact the financial system in far-reaching and negative ways. “I feel the Fed is shrinking the money supply on purpose to drive up interest rates because they want the economy to slow,” says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. Meanwhile, our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, opens up a CONVERSATION on the phenomena of celebrity TAYLOR SWIFT as sales for her concerts and appearances have sold out. BOVE shares some personal family stories on the SWIFT monetary bandwagon. US consumers have been splurging on experiences, travel and personal indulgences as housing prices soar, and as stark signs of consumer stress emerge. Elsewhere, we discuss the realities and concerns of the Green New Deal. BOVE presents his latest research on US banks amidst the continuing crisis in the sector. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

The US economy is at a pivotal moment as the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheeting, shrinking it by 10.5 percent, of $940 billion in the past 18 months. Banks are losing deposits, money market funds are seeing outflows. This is a turning point, says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP as the economy faces heightened risks of recession. Many analysts were puzzled as to why the US economy has dodged a recession thus far. BOVE says one explanation is that the government propped up the economy with trillions of dollars in stimulus spending. But the game has now changed. The money supply is shrinking. “There are bright spots in the economy,” says MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner. “That is the present reality. But where are we going? That is the real question. The subjective realities are extraordinary negative on feelings about the US economy.” The CONVERSATION looks at the impact of higher interest rates on consumers struggling on repayments and debt servicing, and shifting more of their consumption to necessities. The manufacturing sector is weak. Is Made in America the way forward? Meanwhile, there is world disorder. Is it spreading fast? Our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE, poses the question, citing one analyst who paints a grim view of the so-called rules based international order. The politics and implications of a US government shutdown is examined. DICK BOVE has the latest on US banks. “The banks are in trouble in the US,” he says, reprising his analysis of government plans to effective shrink the banking sector. Elsewhere, volatile China is in the spotlight once again. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com