The Global Insight

The Ukraine war is receiving less attention now, but the implications continue to reverberate. The Ukraine war will define a generation's understanding of European identity, the future of Russia's relationship with NATO, US engagement in Europe, and the cohesion of the Western alliance. It will also shape Russia's influence in the Global South and that of its allies, impacting businesses worldwide. Join Claudine Fry for a conversation with two of Control Risks’ senior experts in geopolitics: Sorana Parvulescu, Partner and head of our geopolitical risk business in EMEA based in Dubai, and Jonathan Wood, a Principal Washington, DC. Visit controlrisks.com to learn more about how we make the difference in a changing world.

Critical minerals are a hot topic right now, but most people don’t realise how truly critical they are until there is a restriction on their use. Critical minerals drive AI, the cloud, the energy transition – but they also power our phones, keep the lights on, the dishwasher running. The US defines critical minerals as those which serve an essential function in one or more energy technology, and which are at high risk of supply chain disruption. Securing access to them is existential. Claudine Fry, Director of Control Risks’ Global Issues team, chats with Stephen Norris, a Partner in Control Risks’ Tokyo office, to discuss the current critical minerals down-cycle, geopolitical dynamics, and how he anticipates regulation and investment in the sector will evolve. Find out how we can support your organisation.

Just as the shipping industry was recovering from years of pandemic disruption, its vulnerability has been laid bare yet again. This time the extra costs, delays and clogged berths are compounded by destroyers, drones and a higher-octane geopolitical tension. Growing insecurity in the Red Sea is a reminder that geopolitics underpins global trade and can threaten it as easily as it can uphold it. Join Control Risks Partner Claudine Fry for a conversation with Control Risks' experts Cormac Mc Garry and Arran Kennedy about why businesses need to be paying attention what’s happening in the Red Sea -- and not just to the near-term risk -- and not just to the near-term risk.

2023 felt like an uneven, transitional year. Global inflation has fallen sharply, and supply chains have recovered without a major economic crisis. But overwhelming geopolitical volatility, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Europe and the Sahel, as well as a looming swathe of elections worldwide haunts any attempt to paint an overly rosy picture. 2023 also saw the emergence of a new multipolar world order as Middle Powers flexed their muscles and leaps in AI supercharged just about everything. Businesses must be ready to monitor and adapt. What’s next? Join Control Risks Partner, Claudine Fry, for a conversation with Control Risks experts Jonathan Wood, a Principal in our Global Risk Analysis team based in the US, and Andrew Gilholm, a Principal in our Global Risk Analysis team based in South Korea, as they examine the key events and trends from 2023 and what these mean for the year ahead. For more on what businesses need to watch in 2024, check out RiskMap, Control Risks’ annual forecast of business risks, compiled by Control Risks experts worldwide. With risk ratings and in-depth analysis, RiskMap is your essential guide to mitigating risk and seizing opportunity in the year ahead. Find out more about how we can support your business.

Geopolitical turbulence is shaping trends in ESG regulation and enforcement globally. Indeed, the significant role geopolitics is playing in driving business risk and determining commercial success for companies has prompted some discussion about whether the “G” in ESG should be focused on “geopolitics” rather than “governance”. Join Claudine Fry as she sits down with Control Risks experts Gabriel Brasil and Shikha Kher to explore how a better understanding of the interplay between geopolitics and ESG is key to proactively managing compliance and taking advantage of emerging, associated opportunities. Find out more about how we're helping organisations mitigate risk and seize opportunity in the ESG space.

The Middle East is changing rapidly, with consequences for sport, culture, politics, energy and economics. This is particularly true for the Gulf states. Join Control Risks Partner Claudine Fry for conversation with Control Risks Senior Analyst Niamh McBurney about the evolving power dynamics, global influence and business landscape of the Middle East. Visit controlrisks.com to find out how we help businesses mitigate risk and seize opportunity.

In the new world order, middle power countries like Brazil, Turkey, India, and Egypt, are poised to be a significant force. These are countries capable of playing key strategic roles internationally or regionally, with natural resources, demographic advantages or historic links at their disposal. Join Claudine Fry for a conversation with Control Risks experts Gabriel Brasil and Patricia Rodrigues for a conversation about what makes a country a middle powers, what makes them a force on the geopolitical stage, and why understanding them matters for business. Find out more about how we can support your business.

Artificial Intelligence has been on the minds of governments for many years. But with the sudden advent of widespread public access to generative AI like ChatGPT, governments are now on the back foot. Join Control Risks Partner, Claudine Fry, for a conversation with Control Risks Principal, Jonathan Wood, for a conversation about how the real threat to geopolitics from AI might lie in its ability to reinforce current dynamics rather than upending them. Find out how our global team of political and country risk experts can support your organisation by visiting our website. And stay up to date with our cyber team at our cyber hub.

Demographics are routinely cited as a factor influencing unrest, elections, economic fortunes, politics. Join Claudine Fry and Serena Pilkington as they unpack current global demographic trends, how these drive everything from economic vitality to unrest, and the implications for business now and into the future.

The message from Western developed economies, but particularly from the United States, is to stop making things so far away from home. Is this the end of globalisation? Join Charles Hecker and Claudine Fry for a conversation with Control Risks experts Alejandra Soto and Aryaman Bhatnagar about what the outlook for two nearshoring hotspots, Mexico and India, tells us about where supply chains, manufacturing and the global economy are headed. Visit controlrisks.com to find out how we can help you navigate changing world.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia was designed to decapitate the Ukrainian administration in just a matter of days. The war has now ground on for a year. What does the long-term really look like? Join Charles Hecker and Claudine Fry for a conversation with Control Risks expert Anna Walker to discuss the near-term uncertainty for the conflict on the ground, the potential end goals for both Russia and Ukraine, and the wider geopolitical implications as the war continues.

There has been much discussion recently about the erosion of democracy worldwide. As always, the picture is more nuanced than it seems at first glance. In 2023, where does democracy stand? Join Charles Hecker and Claudine Fry for a conversation with Control Risks' expert Achmad Sukarsono and Elisabeth Braw, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, about how businesses should be approaching threats to democracies, best practice for operating and investing in maturing democracies, and why the notion of democratic erosion is perhaps a Western-centric idea that isn’t always a helpful starting point.

How will China project itself on the world stage in 2023? Join Charles Hecker and Claudine Fry for a conversation with Control Risks' lead China Analyst, Andrew Gilholm, about the foreign policy implications of the recent National Chinese Communist Party Congress, the outlook for business critical issues like supply chain, and China’s relationship with the US and Russia. Find out more about how Control Risks can help your organisation succeed.

Which factors are driving inflation and, in turn, how is the rising cost of living driving social unrest worldwide? What do businesses need to know when evaluating the efficacy of government policies and moves by central banks? Join Claudine Fry and Jonathan Wood for a conversation with Ben May, Director of Global Macroeconomic Research at Oxford Economics about the impacts of inflation on global economic performance, on social and political stability, and on the business environment right around the world. Find out more about how Control Risks can help your organisation succeed.

Cryptocurrency, bitcoin, blockchain, distributed ledgers, CBDCs – the flood of new terms and concepts surrounding digital currency can make your head spin. How should companies be approaching this fundamental shift to the way the world transacts, and why are central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) a key development to watch? Join Charles Hecker and Claudine Fry for a conversation with Josh Lipsky, Senior Director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, as he demystifies digital currencies and the risks they pose for business. Dive deeper with the Atlantic Council’s Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Tracker, which takes you inside the rapid evolution of money all over the world. Learn more about cybersecurity risks around digital currency in this report from the Atlantic Council. Find out more about how Control Risks can help your organisation succeed.

The energy crisis spurred by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the weaponisation of energy by governments and blocs on all sides to protect their energy security. Join Charles Hecker and Claudine Fry for conversation with Control Risks experts Oksana Antonenko and Patrick Osgood about how energy weaponisation is manifesting differently around the world, the implications for energy transition, and what steps businesses can take to adapt and even thrive amid energy instability and fragmentation. Find out more about how we can help your organisation succeed.

Against a backdrop of overwhelming humanitarian and an economic strife, an extraordinary election cycle has been playing out this year across Latin America. Join Charles Hecker and Claudine Fry for conversation with Control Risks experts Gavin Strong and Silvana Amaya about how organisations should understand the candidates, policies and populations in a region ready for change. Learn more about how we can support your organisation.

Kenya’s general elections will be held on 9 August, 2022, and the outcome is far from certain. Join Charles Hecker and Claudine Fry for conversation with Control Risks experts Patricia Rodrigues and Rose Mumanya about the roll ethnicity, inflation, misinformation and the Ukraine-Russia conflict are playing in the elections and what businesses need to watch. Learn more about how we can support your organisation.

One of the broad implications of the Ukraine-Russia conflict is the acceleration of a trend already in motion: the pressure on companies to engage with geopolitics and take clear stances. Join Charles Hecker and Claudine Fry for a conversation with Control Risks expert Maria Knapp about what organisations need to keep front of mind when engaging with thorny issues and why staying silent is no longer an option. Learn more about how we can support your organisation. Subscribe to our twice-weekly Russia-Ukraine Monitor straight to your email, including dashboard summary, likely scenarios, scenario triggers and implications, and summaries of key developments.

Emmanuel Macron may have won the 2022 presidential election, but he still has a lot on his plate. Join Charles Hecker and Claudine Fry for a conversation with Control Risks expert Alexandra Kellert about the challenges France and the EU will face in the coming years, from rising energy and living costs to security concerns. Find out more about how we're helping organisations here.