Monday Match Analysis

On Monday Match Analysis, Gill Gross previews the 2024 French Open men's singles draw with dark horses, upset alerts, popcorn matchups, quarterfinal and final weekend predictions. Novak Djokovic is the number one seed looking for his first title of the year. 2-seed Jannik Sinner has battled a hip injury but arrives with sparkling results in 2024. 3-seeded Carlos Alcaraz also brings injury concerns into the tournament. Fourth seed Alexander Zverev comes in off a triumph in Rome. The unpredictable lead-in to Roland Garros has many wondering if a first-time slam champion could emerge such as Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas or Andrey Rublev. 00:00 Intro 00:50 Overview 03:55 Djokovic Q 10:25 Zverev Q 18:08 Alcaraz Q 28:32 Sinner Q 34:23 Final Weekend Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

It is being called the most wide open Roland Garros men's singles events in two decades, and it surely is. Enter, the power rankings! This system is meant to rank title contenders based on past performance only: I look at 2024 clay results, the season as a whole, past attempts on the Paris clay, best-of-five resume and more. These rankings are more objective than predictions: my personal opinion of what could happen in the future is left out of it, although I will share those opinions at the end. Once the draw comes out, strength of opponent and stylistic matchups will influence predictions, in addition to subjective observation; this is why there is often a discrepancy in Power Rankings and Predictions. This edition of the Power Rankings come with plenty of intrigue: where will Alexander Zverev land after winning Rome? What is to be made of a struggling Novak Djokovic or an injured duo of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner? How about Monte Carlo champion Stefanos Tsitsipas and back-to-back RG finalist Casper Ruud? 00:00 Intro 02:37 Honorable Mentions 05:33 Next Out 13:10 No. 10 15:00 No. 9 16:45 No. 8 19:08 No. 7 22:19 No. 6 25:18 No. 5 28:03 No. 4 32:00 No. 3 34:48 No. 2 37:35 No. 1 43:50 Conclusions Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On Monday Match Analysis, Gill Gross delves into the Rome final between Alexander Zverev and Nicolas Jarry. We'll talk about why the match wasn't as close as the scoreline, why it was a bad matchup for Jarry and how Zverev serves a higher 1st serve percentage than anyone else. We'll also evaluate Zverev's Roland Garros title chances and take stock of Jarry as a player. Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On the Mailbag, Gill Gross is joined by Jimmy Arias to discuss Danielle Collins' incredible surge, the ATP landscape shifting and Novak Djokovic's comments on motivation, before delving into viewer questions, including: is Rafael Nadal actually going to retire in 2024, should Roland Garros have given Dominic Thiem a wildcard, which Roland Garros title contender can take advantage of uncertainty within the top-4 (Tsitsipas? Zverev? Ruud?), is there too much Jack Draper hype, what is the future of technique, is there more complaining on tour these days, how can Taylor Fritz level up his game, Andy Murray has switched to a Yonex EZONE 100 and why might Alexander Zverev have such a poor record against Stefanos Tsitsipas? Jimmy Arias is a former world #5, the director of player development at the IMG Academy, and an analysts for Tennis Channel and other outlets. 00:00 Intro 02:26 Danielle Collins 16:37 ATP Generation Shift 21:16 Djokovic Motivation 25:33 Will Nadal Retire 30:19 Thiem Wildcard Snub 35:14 RG Title Contenders 41:54 Jack Draper Hype 46:06 Future of Technique 51:40 Complaining on Tour 52:25 Fritz-Rublev Comp 54:14 Murray to Yonex 56:08 Tsitsipas vs. Zverev H2H Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On Monday Match Analysis, Gill breaks down blowout wins over Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal by Alejandro Tabilo and Hubert Hurkacz respectively, at the 2024 Rome Masters. We'll analyze both matches, plus address the water bottle incident and Roland Garros prospects. Lastly, we'll take a fresh look at the Rome draw with the Round of 16 stage ahead. 00:00 Intro 02:53 Water Bottle Incident 05:20 Djokovic Concern Meter 08:40 Tabilo Match Analysis 18:40 Nadal-Hurkacz Analysis 25:55 Nadal Shortcomings 34:15 Rome Draw Notes Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On the Mailbag, Gill Gross unpacks Dominic Thiem's legacy and why the reaction to his retirement should be celebration, not regret. Then, we get to your comments: is Thiem quitting too soon, would Thiem have returned to peak form if the wrist injury never happened, are the injuries on tour a result of a poor calendar, who would be the Roland Garros Frankenstein, thoughts on Diego Schwartzman and Camilla Giorgi retirement developments, should excessive grunting be outlawed, what explains the decline in Daniil Medvedev's serve, why were top players so inconsistent at Roland Garros in the late 90s early 2000s? At the end of this podcast, we review the Challengers Movie. 00:00 Intro 00:55 Thiem's Legacy 16:30 Thiem's Decision 19:05 Imagine No Wrist Injury 26:14 Calendar and Injuries 34:20 RG Frankenstein 37:40 Schwartzman & Giorgi Retirements 42:10 Excessive Grunting 48:16 Medvedev Serve Decline 54:36 Early 2000s Inconsistency 1:03:35 Challengers Review Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On Monday Match Analysis, Gill Gross previews the 2024 Italian Open in Rome with dark horses, upset alerts, popcorn matchups and predictions. 6-time champion Novak Djokovic is the top-seed, followed by defending champion Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, and Madrid champion Andrey Rublev. 00:00 Intro 03:20 Djokovic Q 9:00 Zverev Q 18:50 Rublev Q 26:10 Medvedev Q 36:27 Final Weekend Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On Monday Match Analysis, Gill Gross breaks down Andrey Rublev's triumphant comeback win over Felix Auger-Aliassime in the 2024 Mutua Madrid Masters final. We'll talk about why Rublev called it the "most proud" title he's ever won. We'll discuss the key dynamic in the match: FAA's serve against Rublev's return. We'll cover the chances that Felix is primed to make another push towards the top-10. Lastly, we'll do the 2nd edition of the French Open Power Rankings which spoiler alert includes Rafael Nadal. 00:00 Intro 01:03 Proud Rublev 04:35 Felix Wins 1st 10:25 Rublev Returning 22:35 Felix Physical 25:45 Rublev's Baseline Edge 29:08 Felix Back? 32:20 Foot Faults 36:18 FO Power Rankings Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On the Mailbag, Gill Gross overviews Madrid men's singles storylines such as the avalanche of injuries, Rafael Nadal's best run since 2022, Jiri Lehecka's breakthrough and an Andrey Rublev vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime final. Then, he answers your comments, including: has Andrey Rublev peaked, how do players qualify for the 2024 Paris Olympics, how do I rank the top teenagers such as Joao Fonseca and Jakub Mensik, is play quality down in Madrid, how should Nadal increase his fitness, what are the new expectations for Casper Ruud, is Jannik Sinner ready to break through on clay and is Corentin Moutet entitled to coffee? 00:00 Intro 03:35 Madrid Overview 14:37 Rublev Peak 20:43 Olympic Qualification 25:55 Youngster Rankings 30:55 Showing Injuries 34:22 Madrid Play Quality 35:50 Rafa Fitness Plan 37:15 Ruud's Goals 44:50 Sinner Clay 46:25 Etcheverry Progress 48:43 Country Stereotypes 51:42 Moutet Denied Coffee Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

37-year old Rafael Nadal drew 16-year old Darwin Blanch in the first round of the Mutua Madrid Open. Gill Gross breakdown and analysis... Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On Monday Match Analysis, Gill Gross previews the 2024 Mutua Madrid Open ATP 1000. The top-seed is Jannik Sinner looking for his first big clay title, Carlos Alcaraz is the back-to-back defending champion opposite the draw, Daniil Medvedev and two-time Madrid champion Alexander Zverev round off the top seeds. Rafael Nadal opens against Darwin Blanch. Novak Djokovic withdrew from the event. Gill gives his quarter-by-quarter preview with dark horses, upset alerts, popcorn matchups and predictions. 00:00 Intro 03:21 Sinner's Quarter 08:45 Medvedev's Quarter 16:20 Zverev's Quarter 21:30 Alcaraz's Quarter 29:20 Final Weekend Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On Monday Match Analysis, Gill covers Casper Ruud's breakthrough victory at the ATP 500 in Barcelona, where he reversed his previous result against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final. We'll then move to Munich, where Jan-Lennard Struff beat Taylor Fritz for his first career title. Then, we'll take on Rafael Nadal's comeback effort in Barcelona, where he lost in the 2nd round to Alex De Minaur. Finally, Gill delivers the first intsallment of the 2024 French Open Power Rankings. 00:00 Intro 00:55 Ruud d. Tsitsipas 03:40 Ruud Aggression 12:10 Ruud Passing 16:13 Ruud Returning 18:26 Tsitsipas Performance 21:06 Struff d. Fritz Munich 27:30 Nadal in Barcelona 31:18 French Open Power Rankings Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On the Coach' Mailbag, Thread of Order author Hugh Clark joins Gill Gross to answer your questions about professional technique and various tennis topics. We'll start by discussing Stefanos Tsitsipas's one-handed backhand in response to the recent video by Intuitive Tennis claiming it's "not bad." Comments include: an argument that Casper Ruud's big match struggles are technical not mental, is it true peaking Carlos Alcaraz better than peaking Jannik Sinner while average Sinner is better than average Alcaraz, should coaches and players focus on strengths instead of fixing weaknesses, why do Americans serve bigger on average, what are the changes Alcaraz is making to his serve technique, what we would do if we were tasked with coaching Novak Djokovic, and much much more. 00:00 Intro 03:56 Tsitsipas Backhand 10:40 Ruud Mental vs. Skill 18:28 Peak Alcaraz & Sinner 21:45 Sinner Easy Power 24:30 Focusing on Strengths 30:25 American Serves 33:05 Alcaraz Serve Technique 37:10 Weird ATP Forehands 40:09 Stop Double Faulting 43:38 Footwork Importance 46:41 Coaching Djokovic

On Monday Match Analysis, Gill Gross dissects Stefanos Tsitsipas’s commanding win over Casper Ruud in the 2024 Monte Carlo final. We’ll talk about how the event has shaped the narrative of Tsitsipas’s career, why Ruud should be upset with his performance, who’s forehand is better between the two, what to make of the Norwegian’s finals record and why, although it’s uncomfortable to acknowledge, a poor lines call possibly cost Jannik Sinner a spot in this championship match. 00:00 Intro 00:30 Tsitsipas Monte Carlo 04:22 2nd Serve Domination 13:10 8/8 Break Points 20:25 Tsitsipas Backhand 21:38 Forehand Comparison 24:18 Tsitsipas Patterns 26:16 Ruud Finals Record 30:45 Sinner Controversy Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

Gill Gross breaks down two high-billing quarterfinals from Friday's action at the Monte Carlo country club. Jannik Sinner faced Holger Rune in a rematch from last year's semifinal at the event. Plus, Novak Djokovic took on Alex De Minaur looking to reverse the result from this year's United Cup. At the end, we'll preview the semifinal lineup of Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic vs. Casper Ruud.

On Monday Match analysis, Gill Gross talks Ben Shelton’s title in Houston, Matteo Berrettini’s win in Marrakech and previews the 2024 Monte Carlo Masters quarter-by-quarter. First, we’ll discuss how Berrettini breaks the conventional wisdom of needing matches to play well, and we’ll analyze why he has three titles on grass and clay, but none on hard court. Then, we’ll cover how Shelton is the closest thing there currently is to Rafael Nadal (forehand!) and talk about the improvements he is quickly making. We’ll get a quick word in on Estoril and Hubert Hurkacz before going to the Monte Carlo preview. Novak Djokovic is the top seed, followed by Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev. 00:00 Intro 01:00 Berrettini Marrakech 08:56 Shelton Houston 24:15 Hurkacz Estoril 26:25 Monte Carlo 27:23 Djokovic Q 34:47 Alcaraz Q 40:03 Medvedev Q 43:45 Sinner Q 48:50 Final Weekend Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On the Mailbag, Gill Gross unpacks Novak Djokovic’s split with Goran Ivanisevic, including the media coverage, the reasons for the breakup, who might be next and what value that person should bring to the 24-time major champion. We’ll answer your comments, including: how do we rank events in order of court speed, why Nuno Borges got robbed in Estoril, why Iga Swiatek can struggle against relentless power aggression, how Jannik Sinner will fare on clay, will Medvedev overcome his limitations, has Stefanos Tsitsipas’s forehand declined, what are the ideal surface speeds, can stats help explain errors, what to make of Dominic Thiem’s admission that his wrist still limits his power? 00:00 Intro 00:30 Djokovic x Ivanisevic 10:30 Novak’s Next Coach 18:09 Court Speed Tiers 22:33 Borges Robbery 28:50 Swiatek vs. Power 43:37 Sinner on Clay 38:40 Medvedev’s Limitations 45:08 Sinner vs. Alcaraz Movement 48:35 Tsitsipas Struggles 51:50 Ideal Surfaces 55:58 Explaining Errors 1:00:13 Thiem’s Quote Things I forgot to say… Regarding punishment for umpire mistakes; their performance is constantly being evaluated, so the punishment generally comes in the form of doing smaller matches. Regarding Tsitsipas’s first serve percentage; I am still perplexed by his desire to experiment with the pinpoint footwork given the effectiveness of his serve relative to other areas of his game. Subscribe to The Draw: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

Note to audio listeners: 6:25 to 19:29 is pretty heavy on visuals; I try to describe what I'm showing as much as possible, but if you wish to skip that part my analysis shifts away from film study thereafter. On Monday Match Analysis, Gill breaks down Jannik Sinner's dominant 2024 Miami Open performance. The Italian took over the #2 ranking with a 6-3 6-1 win over Grigor Dimitrov in the final. We'll cover why Sinner is on a path to number one, how his defense left Dimitrov without answers and what his strategy was in baseline rallies and on serve. We'll also both finalists performance as a whole. 00:00 Intro 03:05 The Draw 04:05 Dimitrov's Chance 6:25 Sinner's Defense = Breaks 19:29 Finding Dimitrov's Backhand 21:35 Sinner Serve Strategy 24:40 Performance Conclusions Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

Top-seed Carlos Alcaraz looked to keep his Sunshine Double chances alive facing Grigor Dimitrov in the 2024 Miami Open quarterfinals. Gill Gross breaks down that result, and previews the semifinals featuring Alexander Zverev and a AO Final rematch of Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner. 00:00 Intro 00:25 Alcaraz vs. Dimitrov 17:40 ? vs. Zverev 22:50 Sinner vs. Medvedev

On The Mailbag, Gill Gross answers your comments, including: rating the WTA's one-slam winners of the last decade, my favorite matchups on tour, what could separate Carlos Alcaraz from Jannik Sinner long-term, why is Serena Williams considered the GOAT when Steffi Graf has statistical advantages, what improvements has Daniil Medvedev made this year, how do Alcaraz and Sinner stack up on clay, what is the potential of TopSpin SK25 the video game, how players manage themselves during rain delays, why my old videos are deleted, why is Dominic Thiem still struggling, how will the proposed Super Tour effect lower ranked players, should catching tosses be legal, why am I wearing a hat? 00:00 Intro 1:15 WTA 1-Slam Winners 8:15 Favorite Matchups 13:35 Alcaraz Advantages vs. Sinner 21:00 Serena vs. Steffi 25:25 Medvedev Adjustments 29:05 Alcaraz vs. Sinner Clay 33:35 TopSpin SK25 38:17 Rain Delay Management 41:40 Old Videos 43:45 Dominic Thiem 49:31 SuperTour Effects 54:45 Catching Tosses 57:15 The Hat