Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom

To quote Aerosmith’s Steven Tyler, “There’s something wrong with the world today.” Wealth and income inequality have soared to levels not seen in a century; housing affordability has hit the worst levels on record; consumer sentiment has plunged even though the unemployment rate hovers around 4%; the federal debt is growing exponentially even while inflation still simmers above the Fed’s target leading many to point to the growing risk of a debt crisis. Meanwhile, retail investors speculate in meme stocks and crypto projects employing leverage in a way we have rarely if ever seen before. But the underlying problem common to all of these issues has largely been misdiagnosed. In his latest book, Ruchir Sharma makes a compelling case for What Went Wrong With Capitalism in the United States over the past forty years that has led to many of the challenges we face today. In this conversation, he shares some of the high level themes of the book, including what it will take to rehabilitate capitalism, bringing much needed balance to the economy, and what that process will mean for investors. As the chair of Rockefeller International, he also has a clear vested interest in the outcomes. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

There is no greater contrarian on Wall Street today than Peter Berezin. But being out-of-consensus in one of the most competitive fields on the planet and being right is certainly not an easy feat to pull off. In this conversation, Peter discusses how his macroquant model, the product of years of work at places like the IMF and Goldman Sachs, has lead him to the most bearish of all strategist price targets on the S&P 500 Index and why he has the confidence in it to take such a maverick position today. He also reveals what he believes investors are missing about the AI trade and why they would be well served to step away from their screens from time-to-time, take a walk and do some good old-fashioned deep thinking. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

You could say that natural resources run in Leigh Goehring’s blood. The son of two oil and gas engineers, Leigh has spent nearly his entire life studying markets and investments related to commodities. Over the past 30 years, he has become one of the most brilliant and passionate analysts and money managers in the industry. In this conversation, Leigh discusses in detail his case for a major commodities boom dead ahead as part of broader revolution in the asset markets. For notes and links related to this episode, including Leigh's latest reports, visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

More than anyone else I have read, Vincent Deluard has accurately and consistently described in real time the paradigm shift that has taken place in markets in recent years and how it affects the major asset classes that matter most to investors. His macro calls on things like the trends in inflation and the economy have not only been out of consensus, they've been unusually accurate. In this discussion, Vincent shares the fundamentals of his unique approach to macro analysis and how he is putting it to best use today to make sense of the rapidly changing economic environment. For notes and links related to this episode, including Vincent's latest research report, visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

There are very few truly unique thinkers in the world and almost none of them regularly train their gaze on Wall Street. Peter Atwater is one of those rare few. Whenever a major news story hits the tape, it’s Peter’s opinion I look to to begin to understand what it means for markets and the world because of the grounded and clear-headed insight he brings to the table. Recently, Peter published a new book (The Confidence Map) that does a far better job of making sense of the world today than anything else I have read. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com/podcast.

This episode is long overdue. I've been following the work of Asif Suria for over a decade now and it has proven to be one the best sources of investment ideas I have come across. Asif tracks and writes about everything from predictive insider trading patterns to "ubercannibals," or companies that consistently use excess free cash flow to buyback significant amounts of stock over long periods of time. Profit opportunities created by corporate actions such as risk arbitrage and spinoffs are also featured prominently in his work. Essentially, Asif is a classic value investor in search of a catalyst and, as he consistently demonstrates at his website InsideArbitrage.com, event-driven catalysts can be some of the most effective means to realizing hidden value in the stock market. So it is my true pleasure to finally introduce you to my friend, Asif Suria. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

My guest for this episode is Joseph Wang. Joseph is one of the most knowledgeable people I’ve come across when it comes to the world of central banking and how it intersects with markets. His experience on the open markets desk at the New York Fed gives him unique insight into the inner workings of the financial system and how it has evolved in recent years. In this episode we discuss the shift in both monetary and fiscal policy over the past decade and how it has crucial implications for investors in coming years. For notes and links related to this conversation visit TheFelderReport.com.

My guest for this episode is Ben Hunt. This is Ben’s second appearance on the podcast. I had the pleasure of first interviewing him a few years ago and if you are not familiar with his work, I encourage you to go listen to that episode in which he discusses his background and the key concepts he utilizes in analyzing markets. It’s not at all necessary but his framework is truly fascinating and will give you a deeper understanding of what we discuss here. Today, Ben sees a pattern of rapacious behavior in the markets that extends well beyond the world of finance and impacts each one of our lives in very important ways. He also sees a glimmer of hope in how we can overcome it. For links and notes related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Variant Perception is an investment research firm founded on the idea that man plus machine beats machine (or man) alone. In an era dominated by passive investing and other purely quantitative strategies with relatively short look back periods on the one hand and rampant speculation in meme stocks and other moon shots on the other, nothing could be more contrarian and perhaps more valuable than taking a more thoughtful approach grounded in historical context and driven by tactical tools that have proven valuable through many market cycles. This is precisely the focus of Variant Perception and its CEO, Tian Yang. In this episode, Tian discusses the details of the firm's unique investment analysis framework and, given the apparent paradigm shifts already underway, how it is especially valuable in assessing markets and the economy today. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

Known as "one of the greatest financial historians alive," Edward Chancellor has been working in the markets for three decades now; his study of finance theory, speculative bubbles and economics goes back even further. 'The Price of Time,' Edward's latest book, is clear evidence of his passion for the subject of financial history and his ability to convey the key concepts in an effective and uniquely entertaining way. The book does a masterful job of chronicling the modern history of easy money and explaining its many "secondary consequences," including, "the collapse of productivity growth, unaffordable housing, rising inequality, the loss of market competition and financial fragility." More than that, it takes the reader on a journey from the beginnings of modern central banking in John Law's Mississippi Company to today's fight against rapidly rising inflation pressures, imploring the reader to think critically about what it all means for the future of the economy and markets. In this episode, Edward shares his inspiration for writing it and his thoughts on what history suggests may lie ahead. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

For over 35 years now, Fred Hickey has consistently performed in-depth research into a wide variety of individual stocks and what drives them over the full market cycle. What's more, during that entire span he's distilled his findings into concise and actionable research for subscribers to his newsletter, The High Tech Strategist. In the process, he's earned a reputation among loyal readers for being both a beacon of true value at times of market opportunity and a voice of reason during periods of overzealous speculation. In this conversation, Fred discusses the recent mania in the markets, how it compares to similar episodes of the past and what those have to teach us about how the current decline in stock prices might unfold in the months ahead. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

This is the third conversation with Diego Parrilla I have published as a podcast but the fourth time I have actually recorded a discussion of ours. The first time Diego was kind of enough to share many of the facets of his investment process, I found only afterwards that, due to a technology issue, the audio recording was sadly unusable. So I was very glad to prevent the possibility of another such mishap by having this conversation in person. Though it was the holy week of Semana Santa in Spain and Madrid was relatively quiet as a result, I found Diego and his team toiling away in their top floor offices at Quadriga Funds. Considering Diego's views have been so prescient of late and his framework for approaching markets so relevant to the current environment, I was especially glad to have the chance to talk with him again. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

For long-time Superinvestors listeners, Kiril Sokoloff needs no introduction. Last summer, he was kind enough to host me at his home in Sun Valley, Idaho where we discussed much of the framework that makes up the foundation of Kiril's research and investment process. In this conversation, he shares how he applies this framework to the inflation debate and the most meaningful conclusions he has reached as a result of this process. Moreover, Kiril explains what it all means for the economy, markets and individual investors. For notes and links related to this conversation visit TheFelderReport.com.

Todd Harrison is truly one of the good guys on Wall Street. After a career that took him from the Morgan Stanley options trading desk to running a major hedge fund and then starting a financial media business, Todd founded CB1 Capital several years ago. The firm, an investment adviser and manager, was born out of Todd's belief in cannabis as a relatively untapped source of wellness and as an investment opportunity. After a 9-month bear market that has seen stock prices in the sector fall, in many cases, over 50%, Todd sees what he now calls a, "generational opportunity" and, "the trade of a lifetime." In this conversation, and in typical Toddo fashion, he candidly shares his work and discusses his thesis behind the trade. For notes and links related to our conversation visit TheFelderReport.com.

Jim Stack has been assiduously studying markets in an effort to develop and hone a full-cycle investment discipline since he was first introduced to stock market risk back in the 1973-74 bear market. That experience instilled in him the modicum of skepticism needed to successfully navigate major market turning points, both tops and bottoms, as well as an infectious enthusiasm for investment research that still drives him today. It also set him on a journey that would eventually see him founding InvesTech Research, one of the most successful investment newsletters in the industry, and later Stack Financial Management, an SEC-registered advisory firm with billions under management. In this episode (recorded in Whitefish, Montana), Jim shares the key stories that shaped him as an investor and the lessons learned along the way. He also discusses how he developed some of the major indicators that drive his investment process and how they currently influence his approach to the market. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.

David Hay has been managing money for over 40 years using a tried and true approach steeped in classic value investing paired with an appreciation for technical analysis that can only be developed through vast experience in the markets. What's more, David also has a unique ability to balance a healthy respect for risk management with an openness to opportunities that arise. This has allowed him and his firm, Evergreen Gavekal, to thrive even in the most precarious of market environments. In this episode (recorded in Coeur D'Alene, Idaho), David discusses how he developed his investment methodology over the course of his career, sharing some of the key tactics and techniques he has come to employ and how he is putting them to use today. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com

For over half a century now, Kiril Sokoloff has not only identified in advance the most significant trends and innovations driving the markets and economy, he has also pinpointed the most attractive investment opportunities afforded by them. As a result, his firm, 13D Research, has become one of the most respected and influential services among institutional investors around the world. In this conversation (recorded in Sun Valley, Idaho), Kiril discusses how he developed and honed his investment approach over the course of his extensive and illustrious career and how he is using it today to isolate the most valuable macro signals in the markets. For notes and links related to this conversation visit TheFelderReport.com.

One thing I try to do with this podcast, is to find people who are taking a truly unique approach to analyzing the markets, those taking the "financial road less traveled," as I like to call it. Well, Michael Oliver is surely one of those. There is traditional technical analysis, the study of charts which has been around for as long as markets, and then there is Michael's, "momentum structural analysis," which is an entirely original way of studying price patterns and trends. It was almost exactly two years ago, I first got the chance to interview Michael about his methods. In this conversation (recorded in Fort Collins, Colorado), Michael goes into even more depth about his analytical techniques and what they are saying about the markets today. For notes, links and charts related to this episode, visit TheFelderReport.com.

Julian Brigden is a master of models. In putting together his macro theses, which have presciently called major moves in everything from inflation and the dollar to the most popular manias in the stock market, he carefully studies inter-market relationships and correlations to come up with a framework grounded in real data rather than arcane theories and formulas. This practical and highly-refined approach has served him well for the ten years he has been running MI2 Partners and for years prior to that. In this episode, (recorded in Breckenridge, Colorado), Julian discusses how he developed this uniquely insightful methodology and how he uses it today to inform his own trading and that of his many institutional and retail clients.

It was just over two years ago Diego Parrilla first joined me on the podcast to discuss his framework for analyzing financial bubbles and what he calls, "antibubbles." You may have noticed that the topic of bubbles and antibubbles has come up in both of my recent interviews with James Davolos, on the topic of inflation, and Adam Rozencwaig, on the mania in green energy stocks. Considering how relevant Diego's framework is to the current market environment and how dramatically the macro backdrop has changed since we last spoke, I thought it would be an opportune time to have him back for a follow up conversation. In this episode, Diego shares his views on the misconceptions underpinning all sorts of asset bubbles at present and how a paradigm shift in inflation threatens to play the role of pin to each of them. He also discusses why he believes cryptocurrencies are, in fact, a bubble and how they have created another opportunity in what he sees as one of the oldest and most enduring of antibubbles: gold. For links and notes related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com