The Living Market Podcast

Both Wall Street and the White House are keen to see interest rate cuts this year, at the very least before the November election, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Recent weak consumer spending might force the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) hand, leading to rate cuts sooner rather than later. However, as Philip explains, while earlier rate cuts could be good news for the markets, they could bring about higher inflation. And is the Fed willing to risk that?

Contrarian indicators can often play a crucial role in forecasting market trends, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Last year, during peak economic pessimism, markets anticipated up to six interest rate cuts for this year, and those forecasts bolstered the markets. Now that we’re in a period of greater economic optimism, will that have a negative impact on the markets?

This summer, the price of crude oil could reach its highest level in almost two years, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. While this could be good for Canadian equities (which typically benefit from rising oil prices), it could have a negative effect on the markets in general. Philip explains how expensive oil drives up inflation, which could delay central bank interest rate cuts, which in turn could cause a drop in bond and equity markets.

In the first quarter of 2024 alone, the S&P 500 Index (containing the biggest U.S. companies) had 24 all-time highs. While some economic commentators believe that this rally is due a correction, simply because of the pace of its growth, IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson says don’t believe the hype. While volatility may pop up again, history and current economic data suggest that this rally still has legs.

In the first quarter of the year the economic landscape in Canada wasn't particularly stirring, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. He says, however, that equity markets pretty much everywhere are booming. This week Philip takes a closer look and highlights market action over the past three months.

Strong language and buzzwords can have a significant impact on Wall Street, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Just two or three impactful words per 1,000 in earnings calls can boost stock volume by almost 7%, while using more cautious language typically results in just a 2.3% uptick. However, Philip wonders, can tracking these buzzwords give us clues into future trends?

Canada faces a wall of economic disparities that have widened over time when compared to the United States, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. In 1981, per capita GDP in Canada was 91% of what it was in the U.S. Last year, it was down to 73%. Philip says one step towards bridging that gap is to lower interest rates: lower inflation has given the Bank of Canada some breathing room on the path toward those interest rate cuts.

Maintaining the right balance in an investment portfolio is very much like adding the right ingredients to a batch of cookies, says Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management. It’s essential to maintain the right allocations, and too much of a good thing can spoil the whole batch. Ashish provides an update on where the opportunities lie in U.S., Canadian, international and emerging market equities, and why it’s essential to avoid the temptation to go all-in on the current big hitters.

Gold reached an all-time high this week, making it more valuable than ever says Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy. This week he asks if that makes gold a good investment choice. He dives into what makes it so valuable and considers the future for this treasured metal.

lG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson reviews Canada’s fourth quarter economic growth and says it’s a modest surprise to the upside. He looks at the flat domestic GDP growth and says the economy has stalled out, and questions when the Bank of Canada might react and start cutting its overnight interest rates.

Are we witnessing a new tech bubble, asks IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. Stock prices for the Magnificent Seven (Amazon, Google, Apple, Meta, Tesla, Microsoft and Nvidia) are already up by 10% for the year. However, unlike the tech bubble of the 2000s, when stock prices soared on hopes and dreams, this time it’s rooted in substantial profits. Philip explains why you should beware of being caught up in the euphoria and instead be cautious about going all-in on tech stocks

Milestones are important symbols of progress and achievement, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. With the S&P 500 recently having broken through the 5,000 mark, Philip takes us through the S&P 500’s other notable landmarks since it broke 1,000 points in 1998, describing the index as being like a champion marathon runner who stops for coffee breaks every few miles, just to mess with us.

This Sunday marks the pinnacle of the NFL season as the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers face each other in the Super Bowl, says Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management. He says, as both football teams get ready to go head-to-head, his team was curious about the numbers surrounding the Super Bowl and so decided to break down the surprising stats on jersey superstitions, ad spends and betting trends, and answer the question: is there a stock market ripple effect?

The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) recent decision to hold its overnight interest rate firm came as no surprise, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. However, given that rate hikes have succeeded in lowering inflation, and that increased mortgage costs are now causing inflation to be higher, the time has come to start lowering interest rates. Philip reveals how he anticipates inflation to trend over the next six months and when he expects the BoC to start lowering interest rates.

The oil market is a microcosm of the global economy. It's not just a commodity; it's a barometer for economic health, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. He says by understanding oil, we gain a window into the economic forces shaping our world – including future inflation trends, global demand and geopolitical risks.

The Red Sea is a crucial artery for around 15% of global maritime trade, says Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management. He says the attacks by the Houthi movement on commercial and navigational ships has already detoured 2,000 vessels and led to significant shipping delays. He examines whether this is a bump in the road or if it could have a lasting impact on the markets.

December’s big increase in U.S. jobs initially brought about a negative reaction from the markets, says IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson. After all, a hot jobs report means a strong economy and therefore less pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, once details emerged beyond the headline numbers (meaning weaker data than initially thought), the markets responded positively. Philip explains that, when it comes to jobs data and the markets, the devil is in the details.

We ended 2023 with plenty to encourage investors, says Ashish Utarid, Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy at IG Wealth Management: a robust U.S. consumer, inflation under control and a pause in interest rate hikes (with expectations for rate cuts in the new year). This optimism brought about strong gains for equities and bonds at the end of last year. However, Ashish warns, we may see some volatility in early 2024, given that much of those price increases were due to what was expected to happen in the new year, rather than what had already happened.

Despite some skeptics still predicting a recession in the U.S., IG Wealth Management’s Assistant Vice-President, Investment Strategy, Ashish Utarid believes that we’re in for a soft landing. He outlines the reasons why he’s confident that the new year will bring rewards for investors, including key economic indicators, such as manufacturing, exports, housing and earnings all heading in the right direction, and recent central bank statements pointing towards interest rate cuts in 2024.

In recent weeks, the forgotten 493 (the S&P 500 companies that aren’t the seven big tech companies) have jumped by almost 5%, while the Magnificent Seven have remained flat. IG Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Philip Petursson analyzes the market conditions that have helped the S&P 500’s less well-known companies perform so well and explains why he’s optimistic that this performance will continue into 2024.