Moody's Talks - Focus on Finance

As the regulatory environment continues to evolve, US and European banks have sought regulatory capital relief by offloading the credit risk of loans they make via special types of transactions. Guests: Warren Kornfeld, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings; Nick Monzillo, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Ratings; Frank Cerveny, VP-Senior Research Analyst at Moody's Ratings Host: Aaron Johnson, VP-Senior Research Writer at Moody's Ratings Related reports: Auto ABS - US: Credit-linked notes include risks not seen in typical auto ABS; issuance is risingBanks and Structured Finance – US: Risk transfer gives banks protection, but more capital is better; ABS implications varyBanks and Structured Finance – Europe: Output floor proposal could erode benefits of SRT for regulatory capital and risk management purposes

We talk to Joe Lyons of Bitsight about the growing risk from deepfakes in the age of GenAI. Speakers: Joe Lyons, VP, Cyber Risk & Ratings Research, Bitsight; Abhi Srivastava, AVP-Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: Digital Economy – Cross Region: GenAI-powered deepfakes introduce new and transformed credit risks

Shortening the settlement cycle is a complex undertaking for a clearing house and its members, but once the transition is complete, it will reduce counterparty risk. Speakers: Peter Nerby, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: Exchanges & Clearing Houses – North America: Shift to T+1 settlement has near-term risks for securities firms but will benefit financial markets

Alternative asset managers seek removal of barriers to private markets for individual investors. Regulators are supportive but also wary of potential dangers. Speakers: Alexandra Aspioti, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: As individual investors drive growth in private markets, risks also rise

Companies have responded to weather-related losses and higher reconstruction costs with sharp increases in premiums and tighter policy terms, and some have exited high-risk regions. Speakers: Evelyn Ocas Salazar, AVP Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: Property & Casualty Insurance – US: Homeowners insurers aim to boost profits as weather-related losses, inflation take tollFor more, listen to our Muniland episode: Insurance crisis poses credit risks for hurricane-prone Florida and Louisiana

Anthony Moro, CEO of Provenance Blockchain Foundation, joins us to talk about the technology and infrastructure developments shaping the future of financial asset tokenization. Speakers: Rajeev Bamra, SVP and Head of Strategy, Moody’s Ratings; Anthony Moro, CEO, Provenance Blockchain Foundation Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: As popularity of tokenization platforms grows, so do risks to investorsMAS initiatives will advance asset tokenization, digital money transactions

Moody’s analysts explore green finance, discussing greenwashing risk, the EU green loan market, and how clear standards and rules – and blockchain technology – could play a positive role. Speakers: Michael Dion, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Alberto Postigo, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Abhi Srivastava, AVP Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: Asset Managers – Global: Despite growing regulation, greenwashing is a persistent riskBanking – Europe: Proposed green loan definition to support banks' alignment with climate targetsDigital Finance – Cross Region: Blockchain can bring rigor and efficiency to ESG management, data and reporting

Basel 3.1 reforms will lead banks to apply high haircuts to unsustainably high property values and adjust mortgage risk weights to better differentiate between low-risk and high-risk loans. Speakers: Alexander Zeidler, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings; Guillaume Lucien-Baugas, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Ratings Hosts: Aaron Johnson, VP-Senior Research Writer at Moody's Ratings; Danielle Reed, VP-Senior Research Writer at Moody's Ratings Related Research: Basel 3.1 will reduce risk of boom and bust property cycles, boost private credit marketRising interest rates will weaken commercial property values and raise refinancing riskExplanatory comment – Haircuts smooth CRE values through the property market cycle

As cyberattacks rise and AI poses new dangers, Moody’s analysts discuss banks’ own views of their cybersecurity defenses and explain the EU’s plan to rein in risks from third-party tech providers. Speakers: Lucas Viegas, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Brandon O’Halloran, AVP-Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: Financial Institutions – Europe: Stringent new tech rules for banks and their IT providers will improve cybersecurityFinancial Institutions – Global: 2023 Cyber Survey - Escalating cyberthreats drive up budgets as banks fortify defensesCybersecurity – Cross Region: Generative AI may increase cyber risk rather than lessen itFinancial Institutions – Global: Ransomware attack on ICBC FS highlights cyber risks to the financial system

Our 2024 Banking System Outlooks show more European systems joining the US on negative as economies slow and loan performance weakens. China stays negative, while India is positive. Speakers: Warren Kornfeld, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings; Effie Tsotsani, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Juwon Lee, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Hosts: Carolyn Henson, VP – Senior Research Writer, Myles Neligan, VP- Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

Swedish lender Klarna’s AI assistant is driving material credit improvement this year. In the US, disclosures from Wells Fargo point to what’s ahead for banks’ commercial real estate loan performance. Speakers: Stephen Tu, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Allen Tischler, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings

Over the next several years private credit in Europe will grow, largely because of companies’ substantial refinancing needs. But banks are already fighting to gain back market share. Speakers: Guillaume Lucien-Baugas, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Jeanine Arnold, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service Related Research: Private Credit – Europe: Europe's private credit market will accelerate, along with competition and risk

We discuss the severe thunderstorms' rising insured costs. Plus: Earnings weakness in the Medicare Advantage business and US commercial real estate exposure of German banks. Speakers: Bernhard Held, VP-Sr Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Dean Ungar, VP-Sr Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Evelyn Ocas Salazar, AVP-Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Juergen Grieser, Sr Dir Mgr-Analytics & Modeling, Moody’s RMS Hosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service Related Research: Property & Casualty Insurance – US: Battered by convective storms, carriers seek higher prices, advanced modelsHealth Insurance – US: Medicare Advantage continues to grow, but its profitability is weakeningBanks – Europe: Most EU banks have limited direct exposure to US CRE, German banks are more exposed

Steve Tu, Farooq Khan and Petr Paklin of Moody's, with Joe Lyons of Bitsight, on how AI will change banks; On Fast Finance, we discuss Evergrande's liquidation and upcoming FHLBank reforms. Speakers: David Yin, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Allen Tischler, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service; Stephen Tu, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Farooq Khan, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Petr Paklin, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Joe Lyons, Senior Director Cyber Risk Quantification & Ratings Research, Bitsight Hosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Carolyn Henson, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service Related Research: Property – China: Court order to liquidate China Evergrande will weaken fragile market sentimentBanks – US: FAQ: Initial impact of FHFA reforms of FHLBanks will be less emergency liquidity for troubled banksBanks – Global: Banks are well-placed for substantial efficiency gains with deep AI adoption

Cristiano Ventricelli explains how recent improvements to digital finance systems could help them gain scale. Plus, we discuss BlackRock’s recent acquisition and the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Speakers: Abhi Srivastava, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Neal Epstein, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Cristiano Ventricelli, VP-Senior Analyst Hosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service Related Research: Decentralized Finance and Digital Assets – Cross Region: SEC approves spot Bitcoin ETFs, advancing cryptocurrency institutionalizationBlackRock, Inc.: Acquisition of Global Infrastructure Partners is credit positiveDecentralized Finance and Digital Assets – Global - 2024 Outlook: Digital finance slowly, steadily moves toward interoperability, standardization

Our global outlook for the sector remains negative for 2024, but the picture for non-bank finance companies is more varied than a year ago, with easing conditions in some markets and businesses. Speakers: Bruno Baretta, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Michael Porta, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service

Weak results in personal lines drive the negative outlook for property and casualty insurance, while life insurance benefits from higher interest rates. Speakers: Bruce Ballentine, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Christian Badorff, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Hosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service

James Eck and Brandan Holmes explain how rising physical climate-related claims complicate insurers' risk management; Olivier Panis discusses benefits for banks of enhanced climate change reporting. Speakers: Olivier Panis, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service; James Eck, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Brandan Holmes, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Hosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service Related Research: Insurance – Global: Rising physical climate risk generates uncertainty, complicates risk managementP&C Insurance and State Government — US: Sharp pricing hikes draw reinsurers to Florida; insurance market strains continueEnhanced climate change reporting will help banks manage risks

The boost banks have enjoyed for the last two years will start to fade as high rates translate into higher funding costs and lower growth. But the outlook for banks is not so gloomy everywhere. Speaker: Felipe Carvallo, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Erin McDermott, AVP – Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service

Reduced economic growth could lower financial institutions’ profitability, but there are also opportunities to sell retirement products and new forms of insurance. Speakers: Qian Zhu, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Kelvin Kwok, AVP-Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Hosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service Related Research: Demographics – China: Aging population, smaller workforce will have broad implications across sectorsLife Insurance – China: Aging population offers growth opportunities, with risks and competitionInsurance – China: Latest policies for health insurance improve diversification but raise underwriting risks