Power Problems

David Sterman, senior policy analyst at New America’s Future Security Program, tracks U.S. counter-terrorism airstrikes, particularly with drones. He discusses the history of drone strikes in post-9/11 U.S. counter-terrorism policy from Bush to Biden, the issue of civilian casualties, Biden’s quiet use of drone strikes in Yemen and Somalia, the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force, the problems of threat inflation and secrecy in covert strikes, defining endless war, and reform proposals for how to rein in America’s unachievable objectives and make U.S. counter-terrorism operations more transparent. Show Notes How Many People Does the US Assess it Killed in Somalia in 2023The United States Should Provide a Detailed Accounting of its Operations in YemenEndless War Challenges Analysis of Drone Strike EffectivenessJournal of National Security Law and Policy Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

James Bosworth, founder of Hxagon and columnist at World Politics Review, discusses the various "push factors" throughout Latin America and the Caribbean driving the recent upsurge in migration to the US-Mexico border. He covers US-Mexico relations as well as gang violence, poor governance problems, and other instability in Haiti, Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, and beyond. Bosworth also discusses the transnational network dynamics of criminal organizations throughout the region, including their involvement in human trafficking, and argues that only an internationally coordinated approach within the hemisphere can mitigate such problems. Finally, he explains why the US's drug war approach to the region is misguided and provides recommendations for how DC can better approach this hemisphere's problems. Show Notes James Bosworth at World Politics Review Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jon Hoffman, foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute and adjunct professor at George Mason University, argues for a fundamental reevaluation of the U.S.'s "special relationship" with Israel. He discusses the dire scale of Israel's siege of Gaza and why it qualifies as collective punishment, Israel's lack of clear military objectives in Gaza and plans to attack Rafah, and the widespread regional ramifications of the conflict. He also talks about the negative consequences of unwavering US support for Israel, the military-heavy US approach to the Middle East, the Abraham Accords and Biden's prospective normalization deal with Israel and Saudi Arabia, and explains what having a "normalized" U.S.-Israel relationship would look like. Show Notes Jon Hoffman bio Jon Hoffman, "Israel is a Strategic Liability for the United States," ForeignPolicy.com, March 22, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dale Copeland, professor of international relations at the University of Virginia and author of the new book A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy From the Revolution to the Rise of China, talks about his "dynamic realism" theory of great power war and peace, emphasizing the critical causal role of future trade expectations. Copeland discusses case studies from the American Revolutionary War to the Spanish-American War and the beginnings of the Cold War and then applies his theory to U.S.-China relations across a range of policy areas, with important insights into how to avert a catastrophic war. Show Notes bioA World Safe for CommerceEconomic Interdependence and WarThe Origins of Major War Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the lack of strategic focus in the Biden administration's foreign policy and argues that genuine prioritization requires retrenchment. The U.S. should draw down from Europe and the Middle East, he argues, and step away from formal security commitments there in order to avoid getting entangled in conflicts where U.S. interests are not vital. He also discusses Biden's maladroit approach to East Asian security, particularly Taiwan, the failure of his "democracy vs autocracy" rhetoric, and the prospects for a negotiated resolution to the war in Ukraine, among other topics. Show Notes Stephen Wertheim bioWhy America Can't Have it AllForeign AffairsBiden's Democracy-Defense Credo Does Not Serve U.S. InterestsThe Atlantic Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Paul Poast, associate professor of political science at University of Chicago, discusses the concept of hegemony in international relations and puts forth several models to explain a state's willingness to take on the global responsibilities of a hegemon. He also explains hegemonic stability theory, analyzes the Biden administration's democracy vs autocracy rhetoric, and suggests the United States may be a hegemon in decline. Show Notes Paul Poast bioDon't Blame Lack of Will for the United States' Waning Hegemony,World Politics ReviewBiden's 'Defending Democracy' Agenda is All Talk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Elite politics shape and constrain democratic leaders in decisions about the use of force and tend to induce a hawkish bias into war-time foreign policy. So says Columbia University professor Elizabeth N. Saunders in her forthcoming book The Insider's Game: How Elites Make War and Peace. She explores how elite politics influenced presidential decisions in U.S. wars including Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and beyond. She also discusses the problems of the public's rational ignorance of foreign policy and the tensions between an elite-centric foreign policy and democratic values, among other topics. Elizabeth N. Saunders bioThe Insider’s Game: How Elites Make War and PeaceElites in the Making and Breaking of Foreign PolicyThreat Inflation and the Failure of the Marketplace of Ideas: The Selling of the Iraq WarInternational Security Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Robert Manning, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, discusses the increasing instability in the Middle East stemming from the ongoing Israel-Gaza war, Russia's war in Ukraine and the implications for the US role in the world, and rising US-China tensions over Taiwan. He also talks about the risks of emerging economic nationalism, middle powers, the US addiction to primacy and American exceptionalism, and the problems of trying to manage global politics from Washington. Show Notes Robert Manning bioThe ‘New’ New Middle East and Its ConsequencesRed Cell: The Fallacy of Perpetual US PrimacyIs the US Getting Multilateralism Wrong?Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan the Most Likely Scenario?” Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

William Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft explains the problem of retired military brass working for the arms industry and how this revolving door tends to militarize U.S. foreign policy. He also discusses China's military buildup and why it shouldn't automatically translate to bigger U.S. defense budgets. Other topics include the military industrial complex, Eisenhower's Farewell Address, the Pentagon's inability to pass an audit, and threat inflation, among others. Show Notes March of the Four-Stars: The Role of Retired Generals and Admirals in the Arms IndustryReality Check: Chinese Military Spending in ContextGood Times for the Military Industrial Complex Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Renewed conflict in the Middle East increases the costs and risks of America's entanglement in the region, and despite the strategic case for retrenchment, there is no sign of a substantial change to U.S. foreign policy there. Jennifer Kavanaugh of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discusses America's costly, security-first approach to the Middle East, the Biden administration's support for Israel, policy inertia and the reluctance to change posture, the risks of escalation, backlash, and overstretch, and why the use of force in U.S. foreign policy is increasingly ineffective. Show Notes Jennifer Kavanaugh bioWashington's Looming Middle Eastern QuagmireForeign AffairsWhy Force FailsForeign Affairs Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Renewed conflict in the Middle East increases the costs and risks of America's entanglement in the region, and despite the strategic case for retrenchment, there is no sign of a substantial change to U.S. foreign policy there. Jennifer Kavanagh of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discusses America's costly, security-first approach to the Middle East, the Biden administration's support for Israel, policy inertia and the reluctance to change posture, the risks of escalation, backlash, and overstretch, and why the use of force in U.S. foreign policy is increasingly ineffective. Show Notes Jennifer Kavanagh bioWashington's Looming Middle Eastern QuagmireForeign AffairsWhy Force FailsForeign Affairs Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Weaponizing global supply chains is self-defeating and alters supply chain networks in ways that accelerate, rather than slow China’s rise. University of Connecticut assistant professor Miles Evers discusses how business-state relationships affect international relations. He also describes how economic coercion drives away potential allies and business, which allows China to innovate and increase its share of global trade despite US sanctions. Show Notes Miles Evers bio’Wars without Gun Smoke’: Global Supply Chains, Power Transitions, and Economic StatecraftInternational SecurityDiscovering the Prize: Information, Lobbying, and the Origins of US–Saudi Security RelationsEuropean Journal of International RelationsJust the Facts: Why Norms Remain Relevant in an Age of PracticeInternational TheoryGeoeconomic Competition: Will State Capitalism Win?The Washington Quarterly Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Common but unsound conceptions of credibility and reputation in international politics have persistently promoted unnecessary militarism and prevented the United States from shedding even unnecessary security commitments abroad. Boston College assistant professor Joshua Byun explains the concepts of reputation and credibility in international politics and uses survey data to undermine the conventional wisdom that a reputation for resolve is necessary for a country’s credibility. He also discusses the implications of situational resolve and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan on allies’ opinions of US credibility. Show Notes Joshua Byun bio“U.S. Alliance Credibility after the 2021 Afghanistan Withdrawal,”Contemporary Security Policy “The Case against Nuclear Sharing in East Asia,” The Washington Quarterly“Remember Kabul? Reputation, Strategic Contexts, and American Credibility after the Afghanistan Withdrawal,”Contemporary Security Policy Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Christopher Chivvis, director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the work of renowned realist thinker Reinhold Niebuhr. He explores Niebuhr’s views on war, politics, and American Exceptionalism, and argues that Niebuhr's restraint-oriented ideas are just what is needed in contemporary debates about U.S. foreign and national security policy, particularly with respect to the rivalry with China. Show Notes Christopher Chivvis bioThe Humility of Restraint: Niebuhr’s Insights for a More Grounded Twenty-First-Century American Foreign PolicySome Politicians Seem Comfortable with the Idea of a New Cold War. They Shouldn’tThe Guardian Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Justin Logan, Cato’s director of defense and foreign policy studies, and Jon Hoffman, a foreign policy analyst at Cato, discuss the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas and the imperative of avoiding further U.S. entanglement in the Middle East. They talk about the deep problems with the Abraham Accords, Biden's misguided bid for a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal, how client states employ "reverse leverage" on their U.S. patron, whether Israel can avoid America's post-9/11 mistakes, and the prospects for a genuine change in U.S. policy towards this region, among other issues. Show Notes Justin Logan bioJon Hoffman bioTime to Change Course in the Middle EastNational InterestThe Hamas-Israel WarPariah or Partner? Reevaluating the U.S.-Saudi RelationshipA Shaky FoundationThe Case for Withdrawing from the Middle East Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The U.S.'s frequent use of force abroad erodes the international order's most fundamental principles of sovereignty and non-intervention. Yale Law School professor Oona Hathaway discusses the erosion of domestic constraints on presidential war powers and the increasing official resort to untenable self-defense doctrines to justify its military actions under international law. She also explains why chipping away at the prohibition on the use of force undermines international order, among other topics. Show Notes Oona Hathaway bioHow the Expansion of ‘Self-Defense’ Has Undermined Constraints on the Use of ForceJust SecurityThe Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the WorldYemen: Is the U.S. Breaking the Law?Harvard National Security JournalNational Security Lawyering in the Post-War Era: Can Law Constrain Power?UCLA Law Review Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rose McDermott, Professor of International Relations at Brown University, argues that dominant theories of nuclear brinkmanship lack a nuanced understanding of the crucial factor of human psychology. She discusses the psychology of political leaders, the rational actor model, Thomas Schelling's notion of "threats that leave something to chance," the psychology of revenge, the coercive utility of nuclear weapons, and why nuclear deterrence may not be as stable as many people think, among other topics. Show NotesRose McDermott bioThe Psychology of Nuclear BrinkmanshipInternational SecurityThe Past, Present, and Future of Behavioral IRInternational Organization’Blunt Not the Heart, Enrage It’: The Psychology of Revenge and DeterrenceTexas National Security Review Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Many countries in the Global South would like a more advantageous position in the international order. Sarang Shidore, director of Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft’s Global South Program, discusses why these countries are dissatisfied, what changes they would like to see, and how Washington can respond. He also discusses China strategy in light of the Global South and the role of BRICS and the seemingly tepid response from the Global South in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Show Notes Sarang Shidore bioAmerican Power Just Took a Big HitNew York TimesThe Return of the Global SouthForeign AffairsThe Global South’s BRICS Play Should Not Be DismissedThe NationThe G20 Is in a Precarious State, but Global Problems Don’t Take a BreatherThe Diplomat Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Texas A&M associate professor John Schuessler discusses the different ideological pathways to a grand strategy of restraint. He examines realist, conservative, and progressive restrainers and speculates that the rise of great power competition will be a stress test for the survival of this coalition on foreign policy. He also discusses the foreign policy changes in the GOP and restraint differences over China policy, among other topics. Show Notes John Schuessler bioBuilding Foreign Militaries and Learning the Right Lessons from AfghanistanRevisiting Insularity and Expansion: A Theory NotePerspectives on Politics Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

“Tripwire” forces are deployed overseas to bolster the credibility of America’s threats and promises. New research shows this key feature of U.S. foreign policy is misguided. Professors Paul Musgrave of University of Massachusetts Amherst and Steven Ward of University of Cambridge explain the logic of tripwires as a deterrent and showcase public opinion surveys that undermine that logic. Show Notes Paul Musgrave bioSteven Ward bioThe Tripwire Effect: Experimental Evidence Regarding U.S. Public OpinionForeign Policy AnalysisTesting Tripwire Theories Using Survey ExperimentsTripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.