AEA Research Highlights

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of vaccines, but it also underscored the reservations and low take-up rates among US citizens. In a paper in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, authors Marcella Alsan and Sarah Eichmeyer tested several approaches to improving messages aimed at boosting vaccine demand. Their main finding was that messages delivered by laypersons were more effective than those delivered by persons perceived to be doctors. Eichmeyer says that video messages delivered by experts who were of the same race or were perceived as empathetic can be effective for some types of viewers, but for the most hesitant, ordinary citizens may be the best positioned to dispel myths about vaccines. She recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the design of her and Alsan’s experiment and what their results imply about vaccine messaging.

In the middle of the day on Friday, March 10, 2023, bank regulators swiftly shut down Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), arguably averting a wider panic. Compared to past financial crises, it was not especially economically significant, but it stands out as an important, illustrative example of the economics of banking. In a paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, author Andrew Metrick explains the causes behind SVB’s failure and how the government responded. He says that understanding the collapse of SVB is a stepping stone to making sense of more complicated financial crises such as the Global Financial Crisis. Metrick recently spoke with Tyler Smith about why Silicon Valley Bank failed and what policymakers can do to prevent financial crises.

Before Silicon Valley became a byword for innovation, Route 128, outside of Boston, was America's technology highway, connecting the country’s premier technology companies and research facilities. However, this first American high-tech cluster likely would not have developed as it did without one of the biggest shocks to federal R&D funding in US economic history. In a paper in the American Economic Review, authors Daniel P. Gross and Bhaven N. Sampat explain how a World War II research effort jump-started innovation hubs like Route 128 across the United States. Gross and Sampat recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the history of R&D funding in the United States, and the lessons policymakers can take from it.

Numerous studies have highlighted the importance of effective teachers for student achievement. But new research suggests that school counselors may be just as critical as teaching staff for some students. In a paper in the American Economic Review, author Christine Mulhern found that effective high school counselors can significantly improve the chance that students graduate from high school and attend a four-year college. She says that although it is challenging to predict which counselors will have these large positive impacts, the effects are comparable to many popular education interventions. Mulhern recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the role that counselors play in students' choices, which students benefit the most from counseling, and the lessons administrators and parents can take away from her findings.

Some social scientists have postulated that governments are designed for the purpose of helping the powerful take resources from the less powerful. But while there have been many exploitative governments throughout history, states may have actually started to form as a means of facilitating cooperation. In a paper in the American Economic Review, authors Robert C. Allen, Mattia C. Bertazzini, and Leander Heldring found that in ancient Mesopotamia, states were more likely to form when large-scale irrigation projects were needed after losing access to a river. They argue that the pattern observed in the archeological records is best explained by small settlements banding together to cooperate through new institutions. Heldring recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the economic origins of government, the nature of archaeological evidence for ancient state formation, and parallels to modern-day institutions.

Seven years before the 1954 Brown v. Board of Education decision ended the legal segregation of Black schoolchildren, California ended the legal segregation of Mexican American schoolchildren. That decision, known as Mendez v. Westminster, had a rapid impact across the state and led to significant educational benefits, according to a paper in the Journal Economic Literature. Authors Francisca M. Antman and Kalena E. Cortes found that in areas more likely to practice segregation, the Mendez decision caused Mexican American children to significantly increase their years of schooling. Antman recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the history of Mexican American school desegregation and the lessons the authors’ work provides for policymakers.

The bulk of education research focuses on the benefits of the traditional K–12 and higher education systems, while non-traditional programs are relatively understudied. But economists are starting to shine a light on the large returns to investing in adult education. In a paper in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, authors Blake H. Heller and Kirsten Slungaard Mummafound large earnings gains and more civic engagement among immigrants who participated in an adult program teaching English as a second language (ESL). The benefits of these programs also led to a sizable return for taxpayers. Heller suggests that, in spite of the polarized space of immigration politics, ESL programs are likely to find traction on both sides of the political aisle because they combine the appeal of people working hard to improve themselves with a social safety net appeal. He recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the need for more research on adult education and the benefits of English language programs.

The United States spends over a billion dollars a year on housing programs that give recently released prisoners a place to stay and modest support before reintegration into society. Yet there is little causal evidence that these programs work. In a paper in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, author Logan M. Lee estimated whether residential housing programs in Iowa kept prisoners from returning to prison. He found that instead of reducing recidivism, prisoners assigned to halfway houses appeared to have higher rates of reincarceration than those who were paroled. Lee recently spoke with Tyler Smith about how he arrived at his estimates and whether or not residential housing programs should be scaled back in the United States.

The costs of Alzheimer’s disease are significant. In 2021, it affected nearly 6 million Americans and accounted for an estimated 8 percent of total US health-care spending—about as much as cancer and heart disease combined. And those numbers are only expected to increase as the population ages. In a paper in the Journal of Economic Literature, authors Amitabh Chandra, Courtney Coile, and Corina Mommaerts explain how economists can help provide insights into the numerous policy issues that Alzheimer’s disease raises. However, Mommaerts says that the disease also challenges core assumptions in the standard economics tool kit. She recently spoke with Tyler Smith about cognitive constraints, incentives for providers, and encouraging more innovative treatments for Alzheimer’s disease.

For decades US policymakers have tried to achieve the universal health insurance coverage that many other developed countries enjoy. But despite incremental reforms, based on tweaking health insurance markets, America's uninsured population has remained stubbornly high. In a paper in the Journal of Economic Perspective, authors Katherine Baicker, Amitabh Chandra, and Mark Shepard argue that economists should move away from the paradigm that has inspired these past reforms and toward an approach that encourages wholesale change. They say that proposals should start from a basic, mandatory health insurance package, which can then be supplemented in markets for health insurance. Shepard recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the success of health care systems using this framework in other developed countries and why economists need to rethink their approach to health insurance reform in the United States.

Around the world, female entrepreneurs borrow less than their male counterparts. Many people suggest that the reason for this gap comes down to the fact that women select into less capital-intensive industries. But in a paper in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, authors J. Michelle Brock and Ralph De Haas show that implicit bias against women leads to more onerous ​​guarantor requirements on loans. The findings come from a lab-in-the-field experiment conducted with over three hundred Turkish loan officers and real-life loan applications. Brock says that the additional collateral requirements placed on female entrepreneurs could be a significant barrier to women running businesses. But there may be steps that banks can take to mitigate the problem. Brock recently spoke with Tyler Smith about her and De Haas’s experiment in Turkey and what lessons policymakers should take away from the results.

A wave of political demonstrations in recent years has grabbed headlines and helped to reshape the political landscape. But it’s an open question as to whether these protest movements actually change opinions in the long run. In a paper in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, authors Daniel Hungerman and Vivek Moorthy found that activism can have a lasting impact on local communities. In particular, they found that areas with unusually bad weather on the original Earth Day in 1970, which would have presumably lowered the participation rate, saw weaker support for the environment and worse newborn health outcomes 10 to 20 years later. Hungerman says that while climate change is a global phenomenon, their work is a reminder that bringing people together still makes a difference at the local level. He recently spoke with Tyler Smith about how the first Earth Day shaped communities’ views about the environment and what his research contributes to the broader conversation around climate change.

Fans have frequently experienced the frustration of event tickets selling out in a matter of minutes and then being resold for twice as much or more. This combination of underpriced tickets in the primary market and rent-seeking speculation in the secondary market has long puzzled economists. In a paper in the American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, authors Eric Budish and Aditya Bhave show that auctions are an easy way to fix broken ticket markets by looking at changes Ticketmaster made in 2003. However, the benefits of using auctions in primary markets are unlikely to be felt by consumers. Budish says that other reforms, such as preventing resales, could be a way for artists and sports teams to reward their die-hard followers. Budish recently spoke with Tyler Smith about Ticketmaster’s efforts to curb secondary markets with auctions, and how reforming the primary market for tickets benefits sellers as well as society.

Graduate school should be about learning how to push the frontiers of knowledge. Many students, however, also learn that getting a PhD can push them into emotional and psychological trouble. In a paper in the Journal of Economic Literature, authors Valentin Bolotnyy, Matthew Basilico, and Paul Barreira surveyed eight top-ranked economics PhD programs across the country and found high levels of significant depression and anxiety symptoms among students. Their survey indicates that some norms in the field, such as working alone and downplaying emotional distress, may be exacerbating the profession’s mental health issues. Bolotnyy recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the prevalence of mental distress among economics PhD students and what universities can do to remedy the situation, such as encouraging a more collaborative research environment.

Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) is a form of counseling designed to change unhelpful patterns of thinking. A strong, evidence-based track record has led to its widespread use in high-income countries. But it may also be an important tool for helping people in some of the poorest countries in the world. In a paper in the American Economic Review: Insights, authors Nathan Barker, Gharad Bryan, Dean Karlan, Angela Ofori-Atta, and Christopher Udry found that group-based CBT in rural Ghana significantly improved mental and perceived physical health, as well as cognitive and socioemotional skills—even for individuals who did not report mental distress. The findings may be paired with more traditional economic assistance to get the most out of anti-poverty programs, says Nathan Barker. Barker recently spoke with Tyler Smith about his experiment in Ghana and why CBT can be beneficial for everyone, not just people suffering poor mental health.

When most Americans look for financial advice, they don't turn to academic journals for guidance. Instead, they’re likely to get information from financial personalities like Dave Ramsey or Robert Kiyosaki, whose books have sold millions of copies. But how good is that advice? In a paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, author James J. Choi looked through 50 of the most popular personal finance books on the market and found that they sometimes deviate from the advice of economists. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean the popular authors are wrong. Choi says that while popular finance books may occasionally give bad advice, economists may learn something deeper about how people make financial decisions and the constraints they operate under if they take the popular authors’ prescriptions more seriously. Choi recently spoke with Tyler Smith about popular financial advice on a range of issues, such as savings rules and mortgage types, and how closely this advice matches modern economic theory.

Religion is a deep source of tradition and meaning for many people around the world, especially those in developing countries. But religious practices can sometimes stand in the way of long-term economic growth, according to a paper in the American Economic Review. Authors Eduardo Montero and Dean Yang found that ill-timed patron saint day festivals in Mexico lead to lower levels of development. In particular, celebrations coinciding with important agricultural seasons lowered household incomes, over the course of centuries, by roughly 20 percent. But that doesn’t necessarily mean these festivals made people worse off overall. Montero and Yang say that it’s up to communities and their leaders to decide what the right balance is between cultural traditions and economic growth. The authors recently spoke with Tyler Smith about patron saint day festivals and why they hampered long-run economic development in Mexico.

Major charity appeals can bring in hundreds of millions of dollars. But many worry that these efforts shift money away from other charities or merely move donations forward in time. In a paper in the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, authors Kimberley Scharf, Sarah Smith, and Mark Ottoni-Wilhelm found that charity fundraisers do in fact lift donations without being offset elsewhere. The findings show that fundraisers can increase the size of the overall charitable pie. However, major appeals still have some spillover effects on the timing of donations to other charities. As a result, Smith says that organizations should focus on sustaining fundraising efforts in order to ensure that funds don't disappear in the longer term. Sarah Smith recently spoke with Tyler Smith about how donors respond to major charity appeals in the United Kingdom and what fundraisers should take away from the results.

The pandemic has taken a toll on the education system. School enrollment has decreased, teacher turnover has ticked up, and students have experienced substantial learning losses. But there is at least one silver lining, according to a paper in the American Economic Review: Insights. Authors Andrew Bacher-Hicks, Joshua Goodman, Jennifer Greif Green, and Melissa K. Holt found that school bullying and cyberbullying dropped by more than 30 percent as schools shifted to remote learning in the spring of 2020. Their results are based on real-time tracking of internet searches, which they show contain useful information about actual bullying behavior. Bacher-Hicks and Goodman recently spoke with Tyler Smith about their approach to studying bullying trends and the degree to which bullying originates in schools and then migrates online.

Every year, hundreds of thousands of kids enter the US foster care system. And yet, improving their welfare remains an understudied topic among economists, according to a paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives. Authors Anthony Bald, Joseph J. Doyle Jr., Max Gross, and Brian A. Jacob lay out an economic framework for understanding the US foster care system. They detail what economists have learned about both the demand side and supply side of foster care, such as the causes of child maltreatment and the incentives to provide high-quality care. Doyle recently spoke with Tyler Smith about the history and impact of foster care in the United States, as well as opportunities for future research.