Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work

Today, we welcome back Feargal Sharkey, who visited Bubble Trouble last summer and dropped a (water) bomb on our privatized utilities. He’s fought the noble fight to expose Thames Water as profiteering polluters. Nine months later we have a massive credit bubble bursting, dumping toxic sewage in both debt laden shell companies and the real shit floating in our rivers and seas, while private equity owners took out £78bn of dividends since privatization kicked in. A warning: this conversation should make everyone angry, whether you draw a drink, go for a wild swim, or just watch your rising water bill - asking how this utility privatization bubble caused so much trouble. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) This episode of Bubble Trouble features hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page, with return guest Fergal Sharkey, discussing the failing state of privatized water companies in England. Highlighted are the issues of excessive dividends extracted by private equity owners, the massive debt incurred by water companies, regulatory failures, and the environmental costs of pollution. Sharkie shares his firsthand experiences with water pollution and regulatory battles. The episode delves into the implications of privatization on public resources, the potential for nationalization, and the urgent need for systemic reform in water management amidst mounting public outrage and the looming crisis of water scarcity in London. The conversation encapsulates the complexities of privatization, the financial engineering driving the water industry's woes, and the palpable need for political and regulatory intervention. 00:00 Introduction 00:55 Introducing Repeat Guest Fergal Sharkey: A Deep Dive into Water Industry Woes 00:59 Part One 01:28 Fergal Sharkey's Journey: From Fly Fishing to Fighting Water Privatization 03:27 The Alarming State of England's Privatized Water Industry 06:47 Investigative Journalism and the Mainstream Media's Role 07:44 Exploring the Nationalization Debate and Its Complexities 11:06 Regulatory Failures and the Environmental Catastrophe 14:27 The Financial Quagmire: Debt, Dividends, and the Dire State of Infrastructure 22:00 Addressing the Bondholders: A Call for Accountability 27:12 Part Two 27:12 Looking Ahead: Solutions and the Future of Water Privatization 31:49 The Inefficiency of Global Success 32:11 System-Level Solutions for Water Management 33:14 The Looming Water Crisis in London 34:01 Government's Role in Managing the Water Industry 34:42 The Financial Challenge of Securing London's Water Supply 35:27 Reforming the Water Industry: A Shift in Earnings and Management 35:59 Empathy for the Regulator and the Need for Investment 41:10 Nationalizing the Water Companies: A Strategic Move 47:04 Political Pressure and Regulatory Challenges 49:42 Privatization's Failures and Future Directions 55:20 Concluding Thoughts and the Public's Role 57:34 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we turn our attention back to private markets where Richard’s prior smoke signals may be bearing fruit. That is, we’re getting reports that private equity is playing pass the parcel: selling assets to themselves that they can’t exit and doing so at their own valuations. Marking your own homework? Delaying a bubble that’s sure to burst? Or is it simply remortgaging from one bank to another. [Repeat from October, 2023.] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we have a distinguished guest with an estimable track record at calling out the machinations and malfeasance behind the numbers: Stephen Clapham, the driving force of Behind the Balance Sheet, a podcast of the same name and education company. Stephen helps teach fund managers and others the tricks of financial chicanery and magical massaging of the numbers. (Repeat from July, 2024.) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our recent episode on Reddit was a surprise hit, as was the stock - temporarily - so we’ll be diving into that and much more. This week, a look at the volatile nature of financial markets with discussions around recent events, critiquing the creator economy, speculative frenzy in cryptocurrencies, and tech market overvaluation. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer dive into discussions about financial market volatility and the phenomenon of market bubbles, touching on topics like the recent Reddit IPO and the cryptocurrency crisis exemplified by FTX’s fallout. They critically assess the risk and reality of investments, using illustrative examples to underline the often speculative nature of today’s financial markets. They also segue into discussions on the creator economy, the disruptive potential of AI and chips in the movie industry, and concerns around the instability of personal debt amidst rising interest rates. The episode concludes with recommendations for insightful reads, exploring themes from technological impacts on society to the resilience needed in today's challenging world. 00:02 Introduction 00:38 Part One 06:17 The Reality of Stock Market Manias and Personal Debt 08:25 Exploring the Trump SPAC and the Fate of Cameo 12:45 The Crypto Conundrum: Skepticism Meets Reality 16:52 Part Two 16:52 Navigating the Creator Economy and Tech Innovations at SXSW 22:19 The Economic Impact of Data Centers 22:46 AMD's Influence in the Film Industry 23:31 The Challenges of AI in Hollywood 24:38 Chip Makers: The New Brand Ambassadors 25:31 Rethinking the Creator Economy 26:46 The Long Tail Dilemma in the Creator Economy 27:48 The Misconception of Loyalty in the Digital Age 31:49 Music Industry's Paradox: Growth vs. Sustainability 33:43 Inflation's Impact on the Music Industry 36:43 Easter Reading Recommendations 41:28 Closing Thoughts and Future Episodes Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in a deep dive conversation with guest Bill Raduchel, exploring his extensive 60-year career transitioning from chemical engineering to economics, and eventually into the tech and media industries. Raduchel discusses his views on conventional wisdom, the evolution of technology, and its implications on economics, suggesting that technology has outpaced neoclassical economic theories due to its scaling properties and the significance of information. He shares insights from his book and experiences, addressing issues like tech debt, government staffing challenges in the face of rapid technological advancements, and the potential impact of AI on the future of software development. The episode covers the dynamic between big tech companies, government regulation, and the inevitable challenges posed by significant shifts towards AI and increased power demands. Raduchel also presents intriguing ideas on innovating government structures and discusses the practicalities of managing a rapidly evolving tech landscape. 00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation 00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics 06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics 08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book 11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges 17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing 19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization 25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics 25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two 25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword 25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity 26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation 27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges 29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization 30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation 31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation 34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech 40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation 42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce 44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation 50:06 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy… Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5Z For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society. 00:00 Introduction 00:46 Part One 00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights 01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity 02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue 04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society 07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector 11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance 13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency 16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge 22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen 23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation 23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth 25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands 26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag 27:22 Part Two 27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity 28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity 32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities 36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality 43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark 47:28 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

So let's look forward and prepare you for the next big sexy blockbuster tech IPO, you’ve read all about it - that’s right. Reddit is going to ring the bell. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Reddit's IPO Adventure: A Deep Dive into Valuations, Trends, and Future Prospects In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dissect Reddit's impending IPO, examining its valuation, user base, and revenue streams. The podcast begins with a discussion on the evolution of Reddit and its business model, focusing on the challenges it faces as a business primarily driven by advertising revenue in a competitive digital advertising landscape. Kramer and Page delve into the nuances of Reddit's user engagement and its niche position in the internet culture, juxtaposing it against giants like Meta and Google. They critically analyze the hype surrounding tech IPOs, emphasizing Reddit's $800 million revenue and its struggle to become profitable amidst a sprawling digital advertising world. The episode also covers the broader implications of down rounds and the valuation bubbles that tech companies often face. Through expert insights and a candid conversation, the episode offers a comprehensive view on Reddit's IPO, the tech industry's valuation practices, and what the future holds for user-generated content platforms. 00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: DeepFakes and Bubbles 01:02 Part One 01:06 The Fascinating Shift from Hong Kong to Singapore 02:52 Reddit's Upcoming IPO: A Deep Dive 03:25 Exploring Reddit's Niche and Financials 06:04 The Cultural Impact and Controversies of Reddit 08:58 Reddit IPO Strategies and User Dynamics 10:43 Inside Reddit: Culture, Compliance, and Future Prospects 16:00 Part Two 16:00 South by Southwest Festival Insights 20:04 Back to Reddit: IPO Details and Expectations 21:22 Technical Difficulties and Starting Off 21:24 Exploring Down Rounds: A Deep Dive 23:48 The Reality of Valuations and Market Corrections 24:42 Tech Companies' Valuations Post-Pandemic 25:41 Reddit's Revenue Diversification and Data Deals 27:15 The Creator Economy: Expectations vs. Reality 29:48 Reddit's IPO: A Case Study in Market Dynamics 34:49 Smoke Signals for Future IPOs 38:21 Reflecting on Reddit and the IPO Landscape 40:20 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

When looking at today's issues of privacy, social media, and AI, we can draw a lot from the battles of the browsers over the past 30 years. To explore this, we welcome a close friend onto the show, the father of JavaScript and a Silicon Valley legend, Brendan Eich. Brendan left the CTO role of Mozilla firefox years ago and embarked on a journey to scale up a privacy-first browser and search business that would reward the sites you visit with a token reflecting your attention and value. (Repeat from July, 2023) For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Navigating the AI Hype: Lessons from a Tech Visionary In this episode of Bubble Trouble, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist-author Will Page engage in a rich conversation with Brendan Eich, the creator of JavaScript and a Silicon Valley legend. They delve into the intricacies of the tech industry, exploring AI developments, privacy issues, and the history of browser wars. Eich discusses his journey from Netscape to founding Brave, a privacy-first browser and search business, sharing insights on big tech’s strategies, the pitfalls of surveillance capitalism, and the nuances of rewarding creators in the digital age. Furthermore, the trio critiques current AI hype, discussing its implications for the tech ecosystem and underlining the interplay between technological innovation and user empowerment. 00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble 00:59 Part One 03:03 Tackling Surveillance Capitalism and the Creator Economy 06:24 Privacy, Policy, and the Power of User-First Philosophy 12:29 The Evolution of Browser Wars and the Role of Regulation 24:06 Part Two 24:10 AI's Potential to Disrupt Big Tech's Dominance 25:28 AI Models and Data Quality Challenges 26:24 The Impact of AI on Content Creation and Privacy 27:06 Economic Foundations and the Strategy Tax in Tech 30:55 The Power of Defaults and Consumer Choices 36:33 Regulating AI: Industry Perspectives and Challenges 39:07 The Future of Translation and AI's Role 44:00 Navigating the Hype: AI Investments and the Reality 47:10 Closing Thoughts on AI, Privacy, and the Future of Tech 47:48 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we talk with Linda Yueh, author of the book The Great Crashes. Since America's Wall Street Crash of 1929, the global economy has weathered the most tumultuous century in financial history. From the currency crises of the 1980s, to Japan's housing meltdown, the dot com boom and bust, the global financial crash and the COVID pandemic, crash after crash has sent shockwaves through our world. The Great Crashes tells the stories of ten of these historic financial events. They serve as a series of cautionary tales, each with their own lessons to be learnt. With clear-eyed analysis, renowned economist Professor Linda Yueh uses these meltdowns to extract a critical three-step framework to help recognise the early signs of a crash, mitigate the effects and even prevent them in the future. There is very little that is certain in economics, except for this: there will be another financial crisis. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Understanding Economic Bubbles and Crises: Insights from Linda Yu This episode of Bubble Trouble features Richard Kramer and Will Page in conversation with Linda Yu, the author of 'The Great Crashes', discussing lessons from historical economic downturns and ways to prevent future crises. Yu shares her unique perspectives drawn from her experiences in journalism, academia, and having been a witness to several economic crashes. The conversation covers the dynamics of bubbles, the role of banks and debt in triggering financial crises, regulatory challenges, the impact of policy decisions on economic inequality, and the specific case of China's impending financial instability. Throughout, the importance of understanding human nature's role in financial markets and the necessity for credible crisis management strategies are underscored. 00:02 Introduction 00:47 Part One 00:47 Introducing Linda Yu: From BBC to Authorship 01:34 Linda Yu's Journey: Academia, Books, and Economic Crashes 02:06 The Making of 'The Great Crashes': A Deep Dive into Economic Meltdowns 06:04 Understanding Crises: The Three Phases of Economic Downturns 08:47 The Role of Banks in Economic Crises: A Critical Examination 15:12 Regulatory Challenges and the Shadow Banking System 22:06 Educational Insights: The Importance of Economic History 26:52 The Eurocrisis and Bail-Ins: A New Approach to Banking Failures 29:58 Part Two 30:10 Preview of Part Two: Further Explorations into Economic Crises 31:16 Exploring Economic Festivals and the Humor in Economics 32:06 The Serious Side of Economic Crime in China 32:14 Navigating the Iceberg: China's Economic Challenges 33:07 The Next Great Crush: Predicting China's Economic Future 33:39 The Intricacies of China's Banking System and Property Bubble 34:56 China's Influence on Global Markets and Emerging Economies 35:30 China's Unique Approach to Big Tech Regulation 39:25 The Consequences of Financial Penalties on Banks 41:03 Preventing the Next Great Crash: Policy Levers and Their Effectiveness 46:13 The Unintended Consequences of Economic Policies 55:10 Crisis Management and the Importance of Credibility 59:19 Final Thoughts and the Future of Economic Crises 01:00:30 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Will is just back from Brussels after addressing the European parliament on media and technology and, well, he’s doesn't see too impressed with his first visit since Brexit. And given we’ve discussed super stocks last week, this week we want to explore if any of those super stocks are going to come from the European Union, and equally, dig into whether the stereotypes about the Old World still ring true. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the current state of the European tech industry. Will, fresh from a visit to Brussels, shares his experiences and perspectives on the bureaucracy, inefficiencies, and regulatory struggles prevalent in the European Union and its tech scene. Addressing the European Parliament on media and technology, Will discusses the vast gap in entrepreneurship and tech innovation between the U.S and Europe, with the latter lagging significantly. He criticizes Europe's over-protectionism towards their tech industry, arguing that this approach does more harm than good. Furthermore, they discuss the digital markets act passed in Europe, labor markets, grandstanding politics, and tech nationalism. This episode concludes with the hosts scrutinizing the desperate need for productive economic reforms and forward-thinking policies in Europe's institutional systems and tech sector. 00:00 Introduction and Overview 00:48 Part One 02:39 Comparison of American and European Entrepreneurship 10:39 Insights on Tech Companies' Lifespan and Exit Strategies 18:22 Part Two 18:47 Addressing the European Parliament and Tech Concerns 21:14 The Digital Markets Act and its Implications 22:48 The Problem with Big Tech 23:52 The Impact of Regulations on Startups 24:41 The First Mover Advantage and Regulatory Catch Up 24:49 The Debate on In-App Purchases 25:18 The Frustration with Dysfunctional Systems 26:06 The Paralysis of Legislators 26:43 The Role of Regulation in Business 27:38 The Dilemma of Intellectual Property and AI 28:16 The Risk of Monopolizing AI Wealth 28:37 The Misguided Efforts in AI Legislation 33:30 The Issue with Job Security in Public Sector 38:33 The Problem with Regulatory Nationalism 40:04 The Struggles of Brussels 40:45 Closing Remarks and Future Plans 41:29 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Richard puts Will on the hot seat, and review all his amazing work on the economics of the music industry, something that is a lot smaller than everyone imagines, even if it touches all of us deeply. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Super Fans and Music: The Shape of the Music Industry In this episode of Bubble Trouble, super skeptical analysts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the concept of 'super fans' in the music industry. They critique the idea that fans' increasing ability to interact directly with artists is reshaping the music industry. They draw a parallel between their industry and finance, highlighting the importance of algorithmic methods in both. They also delve into the thriving local music scenes in various countries due to streaming and direct artist-to-fan communication. Furthermore, they analyze the potential impacts of AI on the music industry, noting that AI-created music doesn't compete with human-made music and that major music platforms are making staff cuts due to market saturation and reduced growth. In Brussels, they signal plans to discuss policies against 'bad actors' on platforms, responsible AI, fair remuneration for authors, and transparency of algorithms. The episode wraps up emphasizing the value of user comments as a metric of audience engagement. 00:00 Introduction 00:36 Part One 01:06 The Super Fan Phenomenon 03:41 Understanding the Super Fan Economy 04:27 The Impact of User-Centric Models 08:39 The Power of Direct Communication with Fans 10:21 The Rise of Glocalization 17:25 The Influence of Algorithms in Music 19:23 Part Two 21:30 The Economics of Emerging Markets in the Music Industry 22:24 Understanding the Impact of Data Costs and Conversion Models 23:20 The Challenges of Operating in India's Media Market 24:08 The Music Industry's Growth Bubble and the Role of AI 25:17 The Limitations of Algorithms in Music Curation 26:21 The Impact of AI on Music Consumption and Creation 26:57 The Value of Human Curation in Music 28:03 The Role of Algorithms in Global Music Trends 28:54 The Intersection of Music and Finance 32:56 The EU's Approach to Music and Media Markets 36:14 The Power of Super Fans and the Resistance Factor 39:10 The Significance of Comments in Measuring Engagement 40:37 Wrapping Up: The Future of Music and Finance 41:33 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we get into portfolio theory, or lack of, as for many the rush to big tech and wilful ignorance of everything else Wall Street has to offer seems to be the rule as opposed to the exception. Why is that, and is it sustainable? For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) The Magnificent Seven: Unpacking the Impact of Big US Tech Stocks In this episode, Richard Kramer and Will Page, analysts specializing in financial markets, discuss the 'Magnificent Seven', a term referring to the big US tech companies and their significant market impact. Kramer eloquently illustrates the concentration of wealth within these tech giants and their extensive media coverage, which contributes to their continual growth. They discuss the concept of long tail distributions and how it correlates with a constraint in attention leading to invested interest in just a few companies. They scrutinize the implications of concentrated wealth and potential future industry shifts, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies, despite the allure of being swept up in booming tech sectors. 00:01 Introduction 00:48 Part One 00:48 The Role of Big US Tech in Portfolio Theory 03:30 The Magnificent Seven: Who Are They? 07:28 The Long Tail Effect in Financial Markets 22:56 The Investment Thesis: Backing Big Tech 23:13 Part Two 23:25 The Geographic Disparity in Big Tech 38:09 Smoke Signals: Indicators of Market Shifts 41:41 Conclusion: The Future of Big Tech Investments 41:54 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we’re going to keep on pricking bubbles with a fellow cynic of the sycophants and stenographers. Here to help us is David Trainer of New Constructs, whose company makes “robo-adjustments” to the reported accounts of 1000s of listed companies and tries to unearth the real financials behind the content marketing from company investor relations teams. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this episode of Bubble Trouble, guest David Trainor, the founder of New Constructs, delves into his background in economics and statistics, his time at Credit Suisse, and his perspective on market bubbles and financial accountability. The discussion ranges from the detrimental effects of rapid, superficial analysis and reporting pervasive in today's investment industry, to the importance of rigorous fundamental analysis in discerning true business value. The conversation also touches on companies' strategic overstatement of profits, the ill-effects of unchecked capital allocation, and the role of artificial intelligence in future financial analytics. As the founder of New Constructs, David highlights how his company is helping investors uncover the real financial situation behind companies' reported accounts. 00:00 Introduction 00:57 Part One 01:02 Guest Introduction: David Trainor 01:26 Understanding New Constructs 02:22 The Cynicism in Wall Street 03:02 David's Backstory and the Tech Bubble 04:11 The Role of Accounting in Business 05:37 The Reality of Wall Street 07:42 The Boy Who Cried Wolf: A Market Perspective 08:27 The Intentionality of Market Bubbles 15:44 The Impact of Algorithmic Trading 18:28 The Difference Between Investing and Speculating 23:49 The Challenge of Limited Company Disclosure 26:12 Part Two 27:34 Discussing the Spectrum of Corporate Ethics 27:42 Highlighting Notorious Corporate Scandals 28:05 Elon Musk: Genius or Snake Oil Salesman? 28:46 The Reality of Earnings Distortion 29:09 The Unsettling Truth About CFOs and Wall Street Analysts 29:40 The Role of Investor Relations Firms 30:37 The Problem with Superficial Analysis 33:43 The Art of Investing: A Touchy Feely Approach 35:55 The Role of AI in the Future of Financial Analysis 47:18 The Dangers of Overstating Profits and Zombie Stocks 50:57 Closing Thoughts and Future Predictions 50:59 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our guest this week is Hugh Hendry, a man who found fortunes walking the tightropes as booms turned to busts. Founder and CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, London, a Global Macro Hedge Fund, from 2002 to 2017, where its “high water mark” events were the early and successful identification of the gold bull market in 2003 and the housing debacle in the US in 2008. [Repeat from June, 2023.] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our guest this week is Hugh Hendry, a man who found fortunes walking the tightropes as booms turned to busts. Founder and CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, London, a Global Macro Hedge Fund, from 2002 to 2017, where its “high water mark” events were the early and successful identification of the gold bull market in 2003 and the housing debacle in the US in 2008. [Repeat from June, 2023.] Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

One of the giant iceberg industries - it's all around us but we don’t really see it - is advertising. Frequently touted as the first to suffer, first to recover on the economic cycle, but also counter cyclical, since you need to sell harder in tougher times. Now we are seeing wobbles in economic data, some serious haircuts in tech exits and layoffs from the great and the good, it seems only right that we double down on a massive global ads market this week to see if it is suffering and if it is - might there be troubles ahead? For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Bubble Trouble: Navigating the World of Digital Advertising In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the state of digital advertising, its potential growth, the impact of technological trends, and the challenges it faces in terms of fraud and wasteful spending. They discuss the influence of AI in advertising, the philosophy behind programmatic advertising, and how economic cycles affect advertising spend. They also delve into the strategies employed by big companies like Google, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram in the face of fraudulent activities. Richard points out marketers' inherent conflicts of interest and the ways AI could enhance ad targeting and testing. The hosts end with an insight into how poor economic periods could push companies to advertise harder to maintain their market presence. 00:00 Introduction 00:53 Part One 01:41 Understanding the Imperfections of the Advertising Market 01:57 The Size and Giants of the Advertising Market 02:36 The Impact of Social Media and Retail Media on Advertising 05:32 The Journey of Advertising: From Brand to Direct 21:43 The Influence of AI on Advertising 25:22 Addressing Ad Fraud in the Advertising Industry 25:48 Part Two 26:21 The Problem with Stream Fraud 26:39 Understanding the Different Types of Ad Fraud 27:20 The Impact of Fraud on the Music Industry 28:25 The Role of Bots in Ad Fraud 28:28 The Rise of Made-for-Advertising Sites 29:16 The Challenges of Programmatic Advertising 30:58 The Dangers of Malvertising 32:33 The Fear of Outing Fraudsters 37:49 The Future of Advertising on WhatsApp 43:16 The Impact of Elections on Advertising 47:26 The Role of AI in Improving Ad Targeting 48:12 The Influence of Advertising on Economic Cycles 48:27 Conclusion: The Imperfections and Opportunities in Advertising 50:01 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With 340-odd days ahead, what are the smoke signals - good and bad - that you need to be aware of? Today we look forward, and make sense of the madness ahead of us in 2024. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Bubble Trouble: A Look at 2024's Economic Pitfalls and Opportunities In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer discuss their outlook for 2024, examining potential economic headwinds and tailwinds. They predict turbulence ahead, citing macroeconomic swings, cutbacks in sectors like luxury goods, upcoming global elections, and changes in the tech landscape. They consider the potential impact of AI, particularly in the public sector, with potential benefits in education, health, and law. The hosts also discuss the uptake of Duolingo, reflecting on the broader success of apps that can maintain usage frequency. 00:00 Introduction 01:01 Part One 01:26 The Impact of Economic Headwinds 03:01 The Role of AI and Technology in the Economy 04:23 The Impact of Job Cuts and Unemployment 05:01 The Influence of Tech Companies on the Economy 08:43 The Impact of Macro Swings and Uncertainties 14:12 The Influence of Political Cycles on Economic Cycles 20:25 Part Two 20:25 The Potential of AI in Transforming Public Services 31:31 The Role of Drama in Influencing Public Opinion Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we’re in conversation with a special guest, someone who The Independent argued that he may be “the most influential man in British television.” Sir Peter Bazalegette. The man who brought Big Brother to our screens during his tenure at Endemol, steered the Arts Council England through a period of austerity and was recently chairman of the board of ITV. No one is better placed to make sense of the creative industries and the bubbles they perennially produce. (Repeat from March, 2023) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, we turn our attention to a massive credit bubble that burst and dumped toxic sewage in the form of shell companies and endless debt on public utilities. A scandal is unfolding at Thames Water - London’s waterworks that’s frankly been drowned in debt by the private equity owners. To twist this up a notch, we’re joined by the Northern Irish former punk singer Feargal Sharkey has turned his legendary energy to a cause that's deeply dear to his fly fishing heart - that of England’s beleaguered and abused rivers and streams. It's a great reminder of how these financial bubbles impact all our lives, and Feargal's dogged pursuit of justice on behalf of all of us who like to swim, fish or just enjoy the sight of the UKs precious rivers. (Repeat from July, 2023) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, we turn our attention to a massive credit bubble that burst and dumped toxic sewage in the form of shell companies and endless debt on public utilities. A scandal is unfolding at Thames Water - London’s waterworks that’s frankly been drowned in debt by the private equity owners. To twist this up a notch, we’re joined by the Northern Irish former punk singer Feargal Sharkey has turned his legendary energy to a cause that's deeply dear to his fly fishing heart - that of England’s beleaguered and abused rivers and streams. It's a great reminder of how these financial bubbles impact all our lives, and Feargal's dogged pursuit of justice on behalf of all of us who like to swim, fish or just enjoy the sight of the UKs precious rivers. (Repeat from July, 2023) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.