Commodities Focus

The expansion in the Indian steel manufacturing capacity comes at an opportune moment for the industry as the country has witnessed massive infrastructure projects like construction of national highways over the past few years. Now, with the general elections underway in the country and if the incumbent government comes back to power, the thrust on infrastructure would likely receive continued boost on account of policy continuity. Even though India has unseated Japan as the second largest producer of steel in the world over the past few years, steel production is quite a capital-intensive business, and a large chunk of production costs is driven by prices of raw materials. In such a scenario, the question arises if the Indian steel sector is comfortably placed in terms of having access to conventional and non-conventional raw materials going ahead. In this discussion, Anirudh Iyer, steel and raw materials is joined byKeith Tan, associate regional pricing director for Asia metals, Rohan Somwanshi, managing editor for global agriculture and metals news and Paul Barthomolew, lead analyst for metals and mining, to share their views on what lies ahead for the Indian steel sector.

The rice markets in Asia have seen new trends emerging with Indonesia importing rice, and India putting restrictions on their rice exports. Ripple effects have been felt in other major growing rice growing countries such as Pakistan and Thailand. In this Commodities Focus episode, Elizabeth Thang, Managing Editor for Food and Agriculture is joined by three rice experts from S&P Global Commodity Insights, Tanya Rana and Elvis John, associate editors with the agriculture markets and Mugunthan Kesavan, Engagement lead for food and agriculture to discuss some key questions—how the markets are reacting to Indonesia’s return to the market as an importer, what the industry is anticipating about the rice export ban in India ahead of elections in the country, and more.

As a UK general election looms, energy security and the transition to net-zero are high on the agenda. In this episode of the Commodities Focus podcast, our experts sift through the policy options, from windfall taxes to licensing bans, and discuss why they matter, not just for the UK, but for Europe and beyond. Nick Coleman, senior editor for oil news, is joined by Gethin Baker, senior technical research analyst specialising in the North Sea, and Stuart Elliott, news reporter focusing on the UK and European gas markets. Related Price Assessments: PCAAS00 Dated Brent GTFTX00 Dutch TTF Eur/MWh Day Ahead

Pressured by sub-$2/MMBtu prices, many US producers have decided to cut spending on gas-directed drilling and completion activity and to scale back production in 2024. But there are signs of price improvement along the futures curve in late 2024 and thereafter, due in part to the arrival of new LNG facilities, giving operators reason for optimism. In this episode, Jeremy Beaman, natural gas news editor, talks with Bryan Mcnamara and Imre Kugler, directors of upstream research about how natural gas producers are approaching a difficult price environment and what their plans are for 2024 and 2025. Register for Global Power Markets

Red sea crisis has forced carriers and shippers alike to adjust strategies. Container freight rates not only reached yearly high after receding throughout 2023 but carriers also seized a profit making opportunity they were looking for after the post pandemic lull. The change in this dynamic has forced shippers to again look for alternatives in the hopes of making their supply chain more agile. S&P Global Commodity Insights containers editor Tanya Kalra speaks with Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain and Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Greg Knowler, Senior Editor, Journal of Commerce and Mohammed Al Ansare, Associate Editor, EMEA Containers, S&P Global Commodity Insights about the changing dynamics in the containers market and how carriers and shippers are navigating through them.

Lithium producers are pushing timelines out for project development in North America as global lithium prices sit near a three-year low after plunging from record levels in 2022. The change in sentiment has cooled off a red-hot market and cast doubt on the future of domestic lithium supply for North America’s electric vehicles and other energy transition applications. S&P Global Commodity Insights metals editor Nick Lazzaro speaks with Viral Shah, managing editor for low carbon and base metals in EMEA, and Adriana Carvalho, senior managing editor for Americas metals markets, about the changing dynamics in global lithium markets this year, new pricing trends in the US, and the future prospects for North American lithium supply. Register for Global Power Markets Conference S&P Global Commodity Insights events

Wheat prices have been on a largely downward trend since the start of 2024 despite lower production in key exporters, Canada and Australia, and continued logistics concerns due to the wars in the Black Sea and the Red Sea. Does this imply the weight of a larger global supply in the year ahead and that the markets have adapted to a new normal amidst geopolitical tensions? Or are there choppier waves to come? In this podcast, Vivien Tang, associate grains editor, grains, Victoria Sinitsyna, associate director, Grains Analytics and Nikolaos Aidinis Antonopoulos, senior freight pricing specialist discuss the potential challenges faced by the wheat markets and provide an outlook on global wheat production and freight markets in 2024.

The Asian copper market saw CIF China copper concentrate TC/RC fall by 65% in just three months’ time, while smelters were still not able to find enough feedstocks to meet their production needs. As copper concentrate market changed from surplus to deficit and copper price is still hovering at $8100-$8500/mt level, our experts discuss what happened behind the price, share the outlook for copper concentrate and copper cathodes. S&P Global Commodity Insights senior managing editor Mok Cheng speaks with senior copper analyst Wang Ruilin and senior price editor Han Lu about the factors driving copper concentrate TC/RCs movement, implications for copper cathodes and copper price, and what we would expect in 2024.

Following on from heavy winter storms in recent years that disrupted power supply across US regions, power markets managed a mid-January 2024 winter storm with elevated prices and a few demand records, but no large-scale power outages. S&P Global Commodity Insights reporters Mark Watson, Jared Anderson, Kassia Micek and Tom Tiernan discuss how grid operators are applying lessons learned from past winter storms and benefitting from policy directives on winterization of equipment. World Petrochemical Conference

Over the past 20 years, Brazil’s growth in the production of feedstuffs like soybeans and corn has been remarkable. In the process, it has become a powerhouse exporter. To accomplish this, it took the convergence of Brazil modernizing its agricultural production and transportation systems along with the equally meteoric demand growth of a willing buyer, China. S&P Global Commodity Insights' chief agricultural economist Paul Hughes speaks with feed and grains senior analyst Anamaria Martins and grains and oilseeds pricing manager Rafael Savoia about the factors behind this astounding transformation, the implications for world trade, the beneficiaries, and what is likely ahead. White paper: How China’s aging demographics will affect food and agricultural commodities (subscriber content)

Asian aluminum markets continue to see lackluster demand and ample stocks pressuring premiums, though the sporadic reopening of the Chinese import arbitrage window is providing support across the region. Further upstream in the alumina markets, flat demand remains a drag on prices globally, but cost pressures and output curtailments are keeping significant declines at bay. As the market looks at what’s ahead for 2024, YuenCheng Mok, Senior Managing Editor of Asia nonferrous metals at S&P Global Commodity Insights discusses the key developments in the Asian alumina and aluminum markets with Jenson Ong and Germaine Lee from the Asia nonferrous metals team, and Lucy Tang, market specialist for Metals. In this podcast, find out what’s in-store in the near term for these markets.

Chinese copper markets are showing signs of recovering from the slump that hit the industry in the second quarter pf this year. The clean concentrate spot TCs are declining on increased demand for cargoes and cathode import interest are improving on tighter spot supplies. As the market heads into negotiation season, YuenCheng Mok, Senior Managing Editor of nonferrous metals at S&P global Commodity Insights discusses the key trends in the Chinese copper concentrate and cathode markets with Jesline Tang, Editor with the nonferrous metals team and Han Lu, senior editor with the team. Find out what’s in-store in the near term for these markets and the expectations for 2024 benchmark levels. More listening options:

With bearish fundamentals characterizing the global LNG market, what role will US exporters play for Europe this winter? Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and subsequent decoupling between LNG and natural gas in Europe, the US has played an even larger role in the region’s energy security. Global LNG markets have changed dramatically over the past year, with the record prices and extreme volatility of 2022 giving way to more bearish fundamentals ahead of the coming winter. Under those circumstances, what role will US exporters play for Europe this winter? Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and subsequent decoupling between LNG and natural gas in Europe, the US has played an even larger role in the region’s energy security. In this podcast, S&P Global Commodity Insights' Americas and Atlantic LNG experts Corey Paul and Margaret Rogers examine how well the US is placed as a supplier this winter as Europe navigates another peak demand season following the loss of Russian pipeline gas. Related prices: LNG FOB US Gulf Coast Cargo (LGCSM01) LNG DES Northwest Europe Marker (AASXU00) LNG DES JKM Spot Cargo (AAOVQ00)

High density polyethylene product consumption and market behavior are key indicators for consumer spending. The US and major export outlet Asia are climbing out of a price slump created by HDPE oversupply, attractive cost margins and slow-to-recover demand. With about 1.5 million mt/year of North American ethane-advantaged capacity starting between September and Q1 2024, run rate discipline will be crucial, especially as low prices encourage virgin resin substitution for recyclers despite impending sustainability targets in the US. Global polymers pricing lead Kristen Hays leads a discussion with global sustainable chemicals lead Heng Hui, US polyethylene editor Colleen Ferguson and US recycled polymers senior editor Antoinette Smith about the main drivers behind HDPE prices and what market participants expect in the short-term as the supply and demand dynamic struggles to find equilibrium. Related prices: HDPE Blowmolding FAS Houston (AAWCZ00) Recycled HDPE Natural Pellets FOB Chicago (ARNPA00) DON'T MISS: Chemical Week’s Billion-Dollar Club: Ranking the world's top chemical producers

Draft reduction at the Neopanamax locks and limitations on daily transits at the Panamax lock system have resulted in longer wait times to transit the Panama Canal. Shipowners have been raising freight costs to seek reimbursement for higher transit and demurrage fees; lightering ships by offloading cargo before crossing; or rerouting ships via alternative but longer routes. S&P Global Commodity Insights' Barbara Troner, Americas freight senior managing editor, discusses these impacts with Americas tankers reporter Catherine Rogers, containers reporter Laura Robb, and dry bulk reporter Nikolaos Aidinis Antonopoulos. The group discusses how shipping markets have been impacted by the El Niño-induced water conservation measures responding to the extended dry season in the Panama Canal watershed, and what remedial steps shipowners can take to navigate the logistical bottleneck potentially continuing well into 2024. Prices in this episode: PCR0500 – North Asia-EC North America $/FEU freight (containers) GRNOQ00 - DBF Grain New Orleans Louisiana US Gulf Coast-Qingdao China 66kt $/mt Panamax (dry bulk) GRNOJ00 - DBF Grain New Orleans Louisiana US Gulf Coast-Kashima Japan 50kt $/mt Supramax (dry bulk) TCAUX00 – Medium Range 38kt USGC-Chile Lumpsum freight (tankers) Subscribe to Platts Dimensions Pro

A sluggish start to the peak summer demand season has disrupted the global recycled PET markets, with subpar demand from beverage bottling in North America, squeezed margins, stiff competition from virgin resin and pessimism running rampant. S&P Global Commodity Insights' Heng Hui, global market lead for sustainable chemicals, Lee Joon lei, associate editor for petrochemicals, Charlie Wright also an associate editor and Antoinette Smith, senior editor, Americas chemicals discuss the current RPET conditions and provide a look ahead at the rest of the year and early 2024. DON'T MISS: Chemical Week’s Billion-Dollar Club: Ranking the world's top chemical producers UPCOMING: APPEC 2023 -- register yourself today! We want to hear about your podcast preferences so we can keep improving our shows. Take our podcast survey here and share your thoughts: https://www.surveylegend.com/s/4xyz More listening options:

US Henry Hub natural gas prices have averaged just $2.43/MMBtu this year, pushing many producers close to, or even below, their breakeven price. Mild weather and weak gas demand this past winter were largely to blame, triggering a selloff that dropped gas prices from historic highs. US gas producers were slow to respond to the selloff, however, and only recently cut rigs, slowed new well starts and dialed back completions. At over 102 Bcf/d, though, US gas production remains near record highs this summer. Will recent capex cuts be enough to balance the market? S&P Global Commodity Insights' J. Robinson, editorial lead for the Americas natural gas news team, sits down with Reed Olmstead, executive director of research and analysis for upstream, and Jeremy Beaman, editor for the American natural gas team, to discuss the outlook for US output as domestic operators readjust to leaner margins. We want to hear about your podcast preferences so we can keep improving our shows. Take our podcast survey here and share your thoughts: https://www.surveylegend.com/s/4xyz

It's been a rough couple of years for US corn and soybeans. 2022 brought drought, record-low Mississippi River water levels, and ultimately sky-high grains and oilseeds prices. The 2023 planting season was initially met with dry weather, causing concern of low yields come harvest time, but have conditions turned around since then and if not, what would that mean for prices and for domestic and export demand? S&P Global Commodity Insights' Jennifer Pedrick, Pete Meyer, Paul Hughes and Luke Lundgren examine the progress of these crops so far in the crop year, and look toward the possible outcomes of the upcoming harvest on the US market and trade flows in South America and around the globe. We want to hear about your podcast preferences so we can keep improving our shows. Take our podcast survey here and share your thoughts: https://www.surveylegend.com/s/4xyz

A year after a historic short squeeze sent LME nickel metal prices soaring above $100,000/mt, industry players remain divided over their pricing preferences in the nickel market with some still referencing the LME, while Chinese market participants have largely moved to other alternatives such as sulfate-basis pricing and SHFE nickel. Following the Indonesian government's announcement of its plan to develop a nickel index, as well as proposed changes from the LME to strengthen its legacy position, what are the potential implications for the nickel market, and how could near-term supply-demand fundamentals influence this? Leah Chen, editor of the S&P Global Commodity Insights non-ferrous team discusses the impact of the black swan event as well as recent developments in the nickel industry with Jesline Tang, editor of battery metals pricing team, and Charles Thompson, editor of EMEA nickel, aluminum and secondary alloys. Related price assessments: Nickel sulfate DDP China BATNS04 MHP CIF NA basis LME BATMC00 MHP CIF NA basis NS BATMB00 (percentage) MHP CIF NA basis NS BATMA00 MHP CIF NA basis NSME00 MHP CIF NA basis LME BATMD00 (percentage) We want to hear about your podcast preferences so we can keep improving our shows. Take our podcast survey here and share your thoughts: https://www.surveylegend.com/s/4xyz

Up to two-thirds of North America is at an elevated risk of electricity shortfalls this summer in extreme conditions with a high load and high outages, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. Conventional plants are retiring faster than the needed transmission and generation can be built, and there are questions about whether the natural gas system is up to the task of supplying fuel to gas-fired generators needed for reliability. S&P Global Commodity Insights' Kate Winston, a senior editor for Americas power news, discussed reliability with John Moura, the director of reliability assessment at NERC. Joining the discussion were Mason Lester, a senior research analyst with SPGCI, and Daryna Kotenko, the team lead for North American power pricing at SPGCI. We want to hear about your podcast preferences so we can keep improving our shows. Take our podcast survey here and share your thoughts: https://www.surveylegend.com/s/4xyz Subscribe to Platts Dimensions Pro