REDD Talks - Cancelling out the Noise

In this edition of REDD Talks, we discuss the distressed and private credit opportunities in the Middle East and Turkey with Berkay Oncel, Head of Investments for the Middle East at SC Lowy. We talk about the lessons learned from Europe’s private credit market, and explore the recent regulatory developments in the region, alongside the expectations from the market for the near future. Available on Spotify, RSS and Apple Podcasts

Get ready for an insightful REDD Talks episode featuring Yulianna Vilkos, Managing Editor of REDD CEEMEA, and Gausia Shaikh, Legal Analyst at REDD CEEMEA. They dive deep into na exclusive in-house research project, The REDD Intelligence CAC Strength Index! Join us as we explore this groundbreaking index that categorizes collective action clauses (CACs) in sovereign bond documentation as Strong or Weak. The index evaluates a sovereign's ability to aggregate bonds for debt restructuring purposes, shedding light on potential risks of holdouts in future sovereign debt restructurings. In this episode, we focus on the legal peculiarities of bonds issued by Pakistan, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and more. Gain fascinating insights into CACs in selected sukuk issuances and understand the nuances of these markets.

REDD Intelligence Asia Managing Editor Eveline Danubrata discusses the trends in China, Southeast Asia and India with three distinguished speakers: Tiffany Wong, Managing Director at Alvarez & Marsal; Jacqueline Chan, Partner at Milbank; and Suharsh Sinha, Partner at AZB & Partners.

In this REDD Talks podcast, Moody's senior VP Nymia Almeida shares her thoughts on Latam's national oil companies as oil prices decrease from 2022 highs. Pemex's debt burden and coming bond maturities put pressure on the company, and also on Mexico to show its full support. AMLO's energy policy hasn't improved Pemex finances, despite copious cash transfers. Meanwhile, peers Petrobras and Ecopetrol are in better shape and making efforts to improve environmental standards. But 2023 also brings challenges to operators, mainly due to new federal administrations.

In this edition of REDD Talks, we delve into the outlook for Turkey ahead of next year’s highly anticipated elections. In a wide-ranging discussion with KPMG Turkiye’s senior restructuring partner Orhan Turan, we explore how the state of the real economy, monetary policy and lending conditions are all affecting Turkish companies and banks, and what opportunities are available for international investors.

In this REDD Talks - Cancelling the Noise episode, REDD’s Latam Managing Editor Maria Fernanda Blaser and Head of Mexico Xochitl Herrera take a deep dive into the rise and fall of Mexican non-bank lenders. Once some of the favourites of foreign investors with billions of dollars in bonds, those companies were financing the growth of their portfolios but showing very little concern to accounting requirements. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, accounting issues were exacerbated, and investors were then asking what was the real liquidity position of the non-bank lenders. The downfall of those companies started when Alpha Credit announced it was reinstating results of three years. Shortly after, it filed for Chapter 11 in the US and for concurso mercantil in Mexico. Alpha was followed by Credito Real, which couldn’t refinance a CHF 170m bond and then Unifin, which blamed its default on the lack of financing for the sector. Unifin and Credito Real are restructuring and this saga is still far away from ending.

Very few voices from Beijing are contributing to a current debate on China’s role in developing nations’ sovereign debt restructurings. Which is why we are so excited to have secured a top Beijing-based lawyer working on debt workouts as a guest for our CEEMEA Season. In this REDD Talks episode, Kanyi Lui, Head of China Practice at law firm Pinsent Masons, speaks to REDD Intelligence’s Yulianna Vilkos about some of the existing misconceptions that media and Western stakeholders make when talking about the role of China in sovereign debt workouts. He also shares his thoughts on some of the potential workarounds to move the negotiations along.

In this edition of REDD Talks - Cancelling the Noise, our reporter Xochitl Herrera talks to former Economy Ministry official and international trade consultant Aristeo Lopez about how the US and Canada's consultation requests under USMCA over Mexico's energy policies can play out, and what are the potential consequences if the consultations proceed to a panel.

In this edition of REDD Talks, senior REDD Intelligence research analyst Mark Bohlund and independent political analyst Charles Hornsby unpick Kenya’s still contested election outcome, the latest fiscal figures and upcoming governance scores and discuss the implications on the new administration’s ability to keep the IMF program on track, avoid rating downgrades and bring down elevated Eurobond yields.

In this episode, REDD Intelligence’s CEEMEA team looks at Ghana’s increasingly troubling debt situation. As Ghana reportedly seeks as much as USD 3bn in financing from the IMF, we ask if a restructuring is now an inevitability, how the country ended up here, what investors' views on the credit are, and look at Ghana’s Eurobond documentation for clues as to how the sovereign might approach any potential liability management exercise.

In an exclusive interview with Yuliana Vilkos, REDD Intelligence's CEEMEA Chief Editor, the head of CEEMEA debt capital markets at JPMorgan Stefan Weiler, reveals the thought process behind Ukraine's recent request to defer payments on its Eurobonds and GDP warrants, and the various factors that influenced the July timing of the consent. This episode marks REDD CEEMEA’s inaugural podcast!

Head of Indonesia Coverage Eveline Danubrata and Legal Analyst Urmika Tripathi discuss the restructurings of both airlines with Shukor Yusof, Founder of Endau Analytics. They talk about the key differences between Garuda and Lion Air, negotiations with creditors, the legal and commercial aspects of claims filed by lessors and how creditors will likely be treated.

Asia ESG Reporter Siya Kulkarni and Legal Analyst Urmika Tripathi discuss sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) with Pallavi Gopinath Aney, Partner in the International Capital Markets practice and Joint Chair of Allen & Overy’s India Group. This podcast focuses on SLB issuances out of India and the behavioural trends that have driven these issuances out of the region. Pallavi provides critical inputs and insights on regulatory drivers, the transaction process, potential innovations in SLB structures and the future of the SLB market in the region.

Asia ESG Reporter Siya Kulkarni and Legal Analyst Urmika Tripathi discuss sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) with DBS Bank’s MD and Global Head of Fixed Income Clifford Lee. The discussion provides an opportunity to learn more about SLBs issued out of Southeast Asia this year. As part of this Asia focused ESG session, ​Clifford provides critical, accurate analysis on the structuring of SLBs and the regulatory framework driving issuance in the region.

Join Eveline Danubrata, REDD Intelligence’s Head of Indonesia Coverage, and Senior Analyst GD Agarwal as they discuss the airline’s predicament with Robert Schmitz, Managing Director at Fulcrum Advisory Asia. Mr. Schmitz was the financial adviser for Garuda Indonesia in its 2006 - 2010 debt restructuring and will compare his experiences with what the airline is currently facing.