CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast

February 2024 SW Climate Podcast – El Niño’s Getting Late It’s the new year and Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back to give the lowdown on what’s happening in regards to the Southwest Climate in this month’s Podcast. They cover this past winter’s three-month pattern and overall conditions. Then they get global with the current state of El Niño and its influence on atmospheric rivers and other precip events seen in the first half of February. There’s a quick look at the resulting snowpack - which is an important feature of the west’s water supply. And finally they round it out with a look to the rest of the month which may or may not be the rally we need for a typical wet El Niño before La Niña comes back around. Mentions: ENSO Blog: “February 2024 ENSO Outlook: All along the La Niña WATCH-tower” https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-tower Paper: “Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde River Basins of Arizona, United States” https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020778 National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: Snow and Water Interactive Map https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water-interactive-map National Interagency Coordination Center: Fire Outlook https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks CLIMAS Member(s): Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

December 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Special MailBag Episode Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins sharpened their pencils, hit the library, and did their homework to bring you a very special MailBag episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast for this month. Thank you to all the listeners for sending in your questions and for trying to stump our hosts. This episode is not to be missed - so grab a cup of coffee and get ready to be schooled before heading off for the end of semester break. And have a Happy Holidays from the Southwest Climate Podcast crew! Mentions: Question 1: We are based in Northeast New Mexico in the I-25 corridor. What is the predominant drivers of summer weather and precipitation. Are we full-on monsoonal, more influenced by plains state weather patterns, or somewhere in between? Dan The climate of the US Southwest, Sheppard et. al. 2002 Question 2: There seemed to be an abundance of DCAPE this season, which is perhaps related to all the strong winds and hail we had this monsoon. what is DCAPE? Sarah Question 3: It seems that an albedo effect after a good snowpack tends to influence/add to a poor monsoon, to some degree, through delayed surface heating… Does that hold any water or stick to the wall? Mark Observed Influence of Soil Moisture on the North American Monsoon: An Assessment Using the Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment Method, Wang et. al. 2021 Question 4: I’m wondering whether there’s a clear “global warming” signal yet in the monsoon? Sarah Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network, Demaria et. al. 2019 Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming, Pascale et. al. 2017 Increasing Future Precipitation in the Southwestern US in the Summer and Its Contrasting Mechanism With Decreasing Precipitation in the Spring, Liang et. al. 2022 The North American Monsoon precipitation response to climate warming at convection-permitting scales, Wallace et. al. 2023 Future Land Precipitation Changes Over the North American Monsoon Region Using CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulations, Hernandez et. al. 2022 Question 5: We're wondering if anyone is studying whether climate change could eliminate the North American Monsoon as we know it and leave Arizona high and dry during the annual monsoon. Bruce & Joanna Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation, Tierney (2nd) et. al. 2017 Question 6: Like many people in the Tucson area I'm engaged in a lot of outdoor activities, and during monsoon these activities get pushed further up the mountains for temperature reasons. One thing that is always a complicating factor is trying to read the weather pattern to determine whether we're going to get dumped on or caught in a storm. Some clouds pass right over without a peep, others seem to become a problem quite suddenly. Are there a few tips you can share for how to read the different monsoon clouds? Neal in Tucson CLIMAS Member(s): Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

November 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Winter is Coming In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back from Thanksgiving to give a recap of November, which was not much to write home about. They start gearing us up for the next few months by taking a look back at previous winters and give a glimpse into this coming season as far as impacts, synoptic features, and large-scale drivers. The team rounds it out with a deep dive into El Niño and the complex forecasting that may or may not bring us some needed winter precipitation. Also - the monsoon is gone but not forgotten! Last Call! The Southwest Climate Podcast is looking to do a special MailBag episode for the end of 2023! We are asking for listeners to send in their questions - Can be anything Southwest Climate related or try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com. Mentions: U.S. Drought Monitor: Current Map - West National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlook National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: North American Multi-Model Ensemble USDA - NRCS: Map - Snow Water Equivalent “Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries” Climate.gov - ENSO Blog: “S(no)w pain, S(no)w gain: How does El Niño affect snowfall over North America?” CLIMAS Member(s): Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

Goodbye, adios, sayonara - In this month’s podcast, the crew is ready to put the 2023 monsoon in the rearview mirror. Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins give this year’s monsoon season recap and the only good thing to say is that ‘at least it was not 2020’ :( They cover what happened in September, review temperature and precipitation as well as the tropical storm season that prevented a full out non-soon. We also get to hear the results of the Monsoon Madness game winners and take a look forward to a strong-leaning El Niño coming this winter. Attention! For the first time for the Southwest Climate Podcast we are requesting listeners to send in their questions for a special MailBag episode in December. Try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com. Mentions: RainLog Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) CLIMAS Member(s): Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

In wrapping up a double-punch storm here in August ‘23, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to deconstruct the current monsoon season. They discuss various analogs to this year, cover Hurricane Hilary that made its way up through the western U.S. as well as the potential for additional tropical storms to bring more precipitation to the Southwest. Lastly they end on their predictions for September and into winter. Good luck to all the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts participants out there! Mentions: Pima County Regional Flood Control District - Rainfall Map RainLog Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping National Weather Service - Tucson: Monsoon Climate Perspectives @NWSPhoenix - Outflow Radar Paper: “The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest United States” CPC: 1 Month Outlook - Sept {"Generational" Count = 1} CLIMAS Member(s): Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins bring you the July '23 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast to tease out what the heck is happening with this year's monsoon. They cover some of the record-breaking heat in July, look back at the historical record of past monsoons to find an analog to this year, weigh in on whether any or all can be attributed to the El Niño flex, and lay out their predictions for the Monsoon Fantasy game. They may not have any definitive answers, but at least you'll get an insightful look at this summer's puzzling monsoon. Mentions: Arizona Station-based Drought Tracker Climate Perspectives Eric Webb on Twitter @webberweather North American Multi-Model Ensemble Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Forecast CLIMAS Member(s): Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

If you aren't thinking about the 2023 Monsoon Season, this Kick Off episode for the June 2023 Southwest Climate Podcast is just what you need. Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to dive into the May / June review, a look at the current wildfire season, a brief chat about drought, then get into the recent Tex-Mex Heat Dome and dive right into the nitty gritty of the upcoming '23 Monsoon Season. They follow it up with an overview of the flex of El Niño, some hurricane looks - and last but not least - Monsoon Predictions. If you haven't signed up for the Monsoon Fantasy game yet - This is your alarm clock! Forecasts for July must be cast by June 30 at 11:59 PM! Sign up today to play! Mentions: RainLog Southwest Coordination Center (SWCC) 'Wavy' Jet Stream - Twitter Monsoon Fantasy ["Generational" Count = 7] CLIMAS Member(s): Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back in the May 2023 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast where they are asking the real questions: Has it been a quiet spring? What was with that Monsoon-y Too Soon Maysoon? Why is it so hot in the Southwest? What are the models showing for the upcoming Monsoon season? And how come those models are throwing shade? Join the crew as they do a deep dive into the data to give their answers, explainers as well as a bit of the usual banter. Mentions: CoCoRaHS RainLog NOAA Blog: "May 2023 ENSO update: El Niño knocking on the door" WMO: "Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years" James Hansen: "Global Temperature in 2022" CLIMAS Member(s): Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

For this special edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast Gigi Owen sits down with the CLIMAS exiting 2022 Environment & Society Fellows for a recap of their projects during their year as well as some words of wisdom for the incoming Fellows. Host: Gigi Owen 2022 Environment & Society Fellows: Julia Davies Barriers to urban agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa Governance of traditional markets and rural-urban food systems in sub-Saharan Africa Jake Dean Rachel Zollinger Being for Somebody: Museum Inclusion During COVID-19 Community Ecology: Museum Education and the Digital Divide During and After COVID-19 "Science from the Past and for the Future: Learning from Indigenous Knowledge for Climate Change Adaptation" Explora: https://www.explora.us/ CLIMAS Member(s): Gigi Owen

In the March 2023 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido still have plenty to talk about! The pod starts out with a recap of the month of March’s precipitation and temperature followed by a discussion of whether ENSO played a role. Then they plow (pun intended) into the ‘Big Winter Stories’ covering historical snowpack, atmospheric rivers, extremes and drought. Stick around for the streamflow conversation as well as what Mike and Zack are looking forward to. Mentions: Southeast Regional Climate Center - Climate Perspectives Tool – Western Region NOAA ENSO Blog: “Did La Niña drench the Southwest United States in early winter 2022/23?” SCRIPPS Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) - Atmospheric River Tally NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Photo from Mammoth Mountain Rutz et. al. "Climatological Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Inland Penetration over the Western United States" U.S. Drought Monitor ("Generational" Count = 7) CLIMAS Member(s): Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In the February 2023 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido return after a bit of a hiatus, and have a lot to talk about (buckle up!). Across the pod, they recap the winter conditions in the Southwest, talk about how this did/did-not live up to expectations for a La Niña winter, the effect some really widespread winter storm activity had across the western US, and what this means for snowpack and water supply going into spring. CLIMAS Member(s): Michael Crimmins Zack Guido Ben McMahan

In the November episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido check in with some extended weather/transition events over the last few months, and how this relates to monsoon-like vs. fall and winter events. They work through a set of possible scenarios for winter, and what we might expect with the current (triple dip!) La Nina event already underway, but with a likely transition to ENSO-neutral by early 2023. They bring back the 'hazard report' to talk through the kinds of weather events and hazards we might see over winter, and wrap with a discussion of the winter forecasts and what we'll be watching over winter to track how the season progresses. They also chat briefly about Ben McMahan (that's me!) changing jobs and having left UA in October (I'll keep helping with the podcast for who knows how long, but it's too much fun each month to let go easily, so we're exploring our options!). CLIMAS Member(s): Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

A note on the podcast, especially to those in our UA community that are grieving. We mourn the loss of our friend and colleague, Tom Meixner, who was killed on the University of Arizona campus on October 5th, 2022. We recorded the podcast the day before, and our tone reflects our joyful enthusiasm for weather and climate in the Southwest, something that Tom certainly shared. We wanted to acknowledge this tragic event and express our heartfelt condolences to his family, friends, and colleagues. We’ll miss you, Tom. In the October 2022 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss where 2022 stands in relation to other years, landing on 2022 as a sneaky candidate for one of the best SW-regional monsoons, ever. They talk through the various ways one might assess monsoon performance, what happened in September, and how to make sense of all the lingering storm activity in early October, despite the monsoon being officially over. They wrap with a quick nod to winter and the incoming triple-dip La Niña, and what this might mean for the Southwest this winter.

In the September episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido catch up on where the monsoon ranks through August, and what September might bring (and how that might affect those rankings). After a tour of regional stats and how various parts of the Southwest are faring with the monsoon, Zack and Mike take a deeper dive into some comparisons with previous monsoon years, to see where 2022 stacks up, and how one might go about identifying the top 3-4 monsoons, based on coverage, intensity, and how sustained the precipitation was in that year. They wrap with a quick discussion of monsoon fantasy and what the forecasts hint at for the rest of September and into Fall. If you want to play along and rank your top 3-4 monsoons, Mike's maps of past monsoon years and the NWS Tucson Monsoon Tracker are great resources to take a closer look at spatial coverage and station records and ranks. New UA Coop Extension Bulletin "Guide to Southwest US Station Climate Summaries" and find the summaries here

In this episode of The Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to talk through the last month of monsoon activity, how the monsoon is performing around the region (and at their houses). They follow up with some discussions of MCV/MCS dynamics based on a listener question and try to make the case whether this is a good monsoon or a bad monsoon. Finally, they dive back into the monsoon fantasy game to see how the first month looks with a few days to go. Two notes: Monsoon Fantasy Game: If you are reading this (or listening) before Aug 1, you still have time to log your August guesses for the Monsoon Fantasy Game: monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/ Listener Survey: We have a short (5 min) survey for our listeners (or prospective listeners) and would very much appreciate some brief and anonymous info that will let us know how folks use the podcast, and what we can do to improve it. Find the survey at: tinyurl.com/swclimatepod

In the June 2022 episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido apologize for the extended (and unintentional) break from podcasting, before diving into to a wide ranging "catch-up" episode that recaps winter and spring conditions, discusses regional hazards we see in spring into summer, and touches on the forecast and outlook for the summer...and the monsoon! They wrap with a discussion of the monsoon, whether this year could ever live up to last year and what led to last year's conditions, before addressing the excitement that a few outlooks have caused, and the early storms that have been building to the south. They also discuss the return of the Monsoon Fantasy Game and talk about how you can play and test your forecast skills against the "experts". Happy Monsoon! For more information on the monsoon, be sure to check out the updated Monsoon Tracker from NWS Tucson: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/monsoon_tracker.php. Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game The monsoon fantasy forecast game is back! The game is largely the same. You make rainfall forecasts at five cities each month. You score points based on the accuracy and riskiness of your forecasts. Here’s what is new this year: You can make your forecasts for the month until midnight the final day of the previous month. For example, you have until June 30 at 11:59 PM to make your forecasts for July. Same goes for August and September. There are Amazon gift card prizes for the top 3 finishers at values of $400, $300, and $200, courtesy of the Arizona Institutes for Resilient Environments and Societies. Mike, Zack, and Ben will be talking about the monsoon and the leaderboard each month on the Southwest Climate Podcast. For more details or to play: https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/home Calling last year’s monsoon fantasy players - Can you spare 2 minutes to help? If you played last year, the game team would be grateful for two minutes of your time to answer five simple questions. Responses are anonymous. They will help them publish a description of the game. https://uarizona.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_bd88HC6pAoWjGwS

This episode is a break from the Southwest Climate Podcast, but Zack and Mike will be back in April to talk all things Southwest Climate. In this special episode, Gigi Owen sits down for one on one conversations with Moriah Bailey Stephenson, Simone Williams, and Lea Schram von Haupt (the 2021 CLIMAS E&S Grad Fellows) to chat with each of them about their reflections and perspectives and their fellowship experience. You can also find more information about their projects in blog posts at climas.arizona.edu/blog. CLIMAS Member(s): Bailey Stephenson Ben McMahan Gigi Owen Lea Schram von Haupt Simone A. Williams

In the Mar 2022 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into a recap of winter (so far) in the Southwest. First, recap winter to date, and put it in the context of a double-dip La Niña, including precipitation totals, temperature, and snowpack. Then they take a closer look at the phases of the PNA (Pacific/North American pattern) and how this links to ENSO/La Niña and the weather conditions this winter. Finally, they revisit temperature to consider just how "cold" it has actually been, and preview a closer look at fire outlooks, snowpack, and water supply in upcoming podcasts. CLIMAS Member(s): Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In the January 2022 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into the winter weather so far, tracking how this lines up with expectations in a La Niña year, and what to track this winter to look for La Nina effects - temperature, snow water equivalent, streamflow forecasts, etc. They also take a closer look at the jetstream and the role this plays in winter weather in the Southwest, and where these recent events (and the monsoon) leave us in terms of drought. They wrap with some discussion of the outlooks for the next month/season, as well as some obligatory pining for the monsoon. Discussed in this episode: The Climatology of Synoptic-Scale Ascent over Western North America: A Perspective on Storm Tracks (Loreau & Horel, 2012) https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00203.1

In the December/Holiday edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down for a quick look at the weather of the last month or so, some recent events bringing winter storms to the region, and what a La Nina might bring in the rest of 2021 and through the rest of winter 2022. They also reflect on 2021 and memorable events in the Southwest, and not surprisingly, this brings them both back to monsoon 2021. Thanks again to everyone who listens and supports the podcast, we hope everyone has a happy, restful, and safe holiday. See you in 2022!