Cannon Stats - The Analytics Podcast

I am happy to bring you a special edition of the Cannon Stats podcast talking to a returning guest. He is here to talk about his new newsletter Expecting goals, which looks to take a break from the week-to-week view and dedicate time to studying a particular question that is underappreciated or is something that we “know” or “assume” to be true but don’t have a good data to say how much or to what degree or when these things from maybe nothing to something. We have a wide-ranging discussion but the later part talks about the first study that has been published looking at substitute effects. This is something I think is very interesting and something that on a player basis we discount but aren’t really sure how much (now we will have a better idea and I will absolutley be borrowing this). This also leads to further questions about what teams do in the face of these substitution effects and is that actually optimal. I have done a little bit of looking at this but like after everytime I talk with Mike, I always feel like there is so much more to try and uncover. Have a listen, consider subscribing, and let us know what you think. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

Scott and Adam are back after too long of a break to talk about the big topics in the Arsenal world. The attack, the disappointments of playing well but not winning, and basically December. Then it is time to switch focus to the transfermarket where Arenal have still not signed anyone. Come on Edu! But more seriously we give our expectations, the sales that could happen, and the state of the squad going into January. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

Lots of news to talk about here on an international break. The discussion starts with the biggest news of the day, Everton getting a 10-point deduction for breaking the profit and sustainability rules (FFP). This comes as a bit of a shock because they are the first big Premier League team to come to the punishment phase. After the news broke they published the following statement: What instantly draws attention is the second to last paragraph and I think we are all right there with them. This great and all, and be all accounts Everton have been spending will above their revenues but they are not the only ones. We talk about this and what could and should be done for this situation. Then the discussion turns to Brazil with all the news coming out of that national team, Martinelli scores, Gabriel is blamed, Jesus injury drama. Last everyone’s favorite topic transfers. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

Adam and Scott are back to talk about Arsenal. They give the League Cup the right amount of coverage and really just wonder what is it for and why it even exists as a competition. Then, they talk about injuries and if Arsenal players are injury-prone and how much we should worry and look to ensure there is coverage or a replacement for those players. After the break, it is on to DUELS and what value they have for us. Lastly a look ahead to a big match against Newcastle United. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.cannonstats.com Are Arsenal worse? Probably not but certainly different Scott is joined by Jon Mackenzie of Tfio to talk further about his last video, answering the question ‘is Arsenal worse’.

24% of the season has been completed and that is a good time to take stock of where things stand with Arsenal. In this episode Adam and Scott go through the biggest surprises, the biggest disappointments, how the expectations have changed, the rating of the manager, and the main takeaway. Later there is a discussion of the Sevilla match midweek and a look ahead to how Arsenal should cope with the busy schedule of Sheffield United, West Ham, and Newcastle. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

The Cannon Stats podcast is back with a full slate of things to cover. Chelsea Preview * Chelsea are still dealing with quite a few injuries. Looks like James is a doubt, Borja a doubt, Chilwell out. How will that effect the lineups for both teams? * What to make of their metrics. Good numbers, bad results, easy schedule * They are 4th in expected points, and ranked as the 5th best team in the Premier League in projection model ratings, looking at only this season’s data they are tied with Tottenham as the 6th best team. * Adjusted for the strength of the schedule they have played they are 7th. * How should Arsenal line up? Eddie and Toney This topic feels a bit never-ending but I did add to it with a look into this on the newsletter. Arteta was also asked about the striker situation and if he would like an out and out ‘Number Nine’ with Arsenal. "I think having players with different qualities gives you different options and it is always related to the opponent, what behaviors they have, and what other players you have around that number nine. If you have midfielders as wingers wanting the ball to feet, a nine that wants to come to feet, and attacking midfielders that are more holding midfielders, you don't have any threat. If you have a nine that wants to come forward, attacking midfielders are constantly threatening the last line, proper wingers - then it becomes a different threat. You have players in the last line that can progress the play, do you have players in the last line that can link those pockets and make the runs that attract central defenders? It depends a lot on the qualities of all the players - you can’t just isolate the nine, you have to see the whole thing; how he connects and what kind of threats and things that you do. Surely if you don't have a big nine inside the box, you lose something. If you're going to start crossing with your full-backs you're going to probably have an issue. But there are many ways to attack and depending on the opponent, maybe that option is better than another one." Last if you are in the area, you should look to join the Midwest Meet Up in the Twin Cities. Adam will look to be there, along with Elliot and Paul from the Arsenal Vision Podcast. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

The CannonStats Podcast is back after a couple of weeks off to look at a slate of topics that is full considering that we are entering an international break. Things that we can learn from the Manchester City match. How the attack is functioning, is it too much control and not enough jazz, is the trade-off tilted too far towards defense over the attack, how much should we be worried? Next, it is looking at Martin Odegaard and how his production is changing this season. Last it is a look at the striker situation and the always evergreen topic of who Arsenal might be targeting in January. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

Arsenal and the Champions League were synonymous with each other for a long time and the years in the wilderness were hard to handle so having the chance to be back has not been taken for granted. Adam and Scott talk about the night: * The lineup * PSV attacking Arsenal * Arsenal’s attack is back * Raya solidifying his grasp on the number 1 spot Next, it is a discussion on Saka’s start of the year and how he can help deliver the big dreams that we have for Arsenal. Last it is a look ahead to the North London Derby this weekend. All that and more on the latest CannonStats Podcast. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.cannonstats.com On the latest bonus episode of the CannonStats Podcast, I am joined by Michael Caley (@MC_of_A on Twitter) of the Double Pivot Podcast to preview the North London Derby coming up on Sunday. We start off lightly talking about how he got into soccer and how he settled on supporting the fighting chickens of Tottenham (don’t blame him too much). We then go i…

The CannonStats Podcast is back looking at the news on Bukayo Saka that he might nursing an Achilles injury. Unsurprisingly Mikel Areta has downplayed the severity but that doesn’t mean people still aren’t worried about it. Here is what he said in his press conference: He’s fine. He trained normally today so nothing to report there. Every player has pains or issues. That’s normal in elite sports, but nothing to worry about. With the news coming out Adam took a look at what that means for his minute’s load, and how other teams have dealt with playing time for their young talisman. That transitions into how much rotation should Arsenal look to do with the Champions League coming back starting next week and a run of 7 matches in 22 days. It is a big run for Arsenal to keep the goals for the season within reach and will tell us quite a bit on how much Arteta plans on using his squad. Last a look ahead to Arsenal’s trip to Everton, where things have not gone well for Arsenal going winless in over half a decade. All that and more on the latest CannonStats podcast. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

Tim from 7amkickoff is back again to talk about the first month of the season. We go through how our perspective on Arsenal and the other top teams have changed from the start of the season with the teams set, and the first four matches in the books. We also take your questions to wrap things up. Hope you enjoy! This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.cannonstats.com Ever wondered what stats mean and when the right time was to use them was? Well, this is the podcast/video for you! In this bonus episode, I am joined by Clive Palmer to talk about advanced stats, and how they help us to understand the game. Learn how the stats work, what the limitations are, and what context is needed for the stats. Below is the very detailed notes and explanations I wrote to prepare for this podcast. At the very bottom for premium subscribers is the video recording that we made as well. (if you subscribe to the Arsenal Vision Podcast Patreon this should also be available to you on that channel) Expected Goals (xG): This is probably the advanced stat one that people are most familiar with but it is probably still a bit understood. I think the resistance to the idea behind rating chances has broken down. We all naturally have an intuitive sense of when a chance is high or low-quality. For example the Gabriel Jesus goal against Manchester United. We KNOW this is a clear chance and that there is a high probability of scoring here. But what is the estimate of scoring here? For this shot in my expected goals model, it is rated as 67% chance of being converted, which is going to be on the higher side for what chances will end up being rated. The largest factors for a shot’s rating is the distance from goal, the angle of the goal for the player to aim at, and if it was taken with feet, head or other. The information for this comes from event data that gives the time and location of every on-ball action on the field. From this, we can infer information about the chance and use that to compare it to how those factors of applied to shots with similar characteristics. This shot is from a fast break situation, which helps tell that the defense is not going to be set and it a more dangerous situation. The speed of this move is 7.3 yards per second making this a very direct attack with is another positive indicator that the defense has been unsuccessful in slowing the attack down. Jesus completes a dribble before he shoots this is a major positive for his chance as it is a clear indicator that he has opened up space for a shot. This is also given the “big chance” indicator by Opta and that is a bit of a cheat that helps that this is not pressured and a one-on-one. One of the major limits of doing this with the regular event data is that the model is blind to where the other players are and information needs to be inferred from other characteristics. We see this when he takes the shot: The model from the event data only knows this and has to guess as to everything else from the proceeding events and the characteristics of the shot: This is an obvious shortcoming and why when you see the xG for a shot, especially from ones that don’t have tracking elements (for example Statsbomb uses freeze frames to also show where all the players are in the frame for the events that they capture. The newer Opta data also uses something similar to get around this) it should come with pretty large error bars for the estimate of the “true” probability for the shot. With this shot we can make some decent assumptions, it’s a direct/fast break so minimal defenders back. Jesus made a dribble before he shot which probably means he isn’t under pressure when he shoots but it is still a bit of guesswork on to just how open it might be. When to Use xG You will see xG used in a number of different places and ways. One of the more popular is after a match; I post a couple of different illustrations of the xG for a match that I think are helpful for describing the game. The first is the xG shot map, which plots all of the shots and goals for each team and the size of the dot corresponds to the xG value. This gives a nice picture of where the shots took place and how dangerous those shots were. There are a number of different ways that a team can...

It’s an international break but that doesn’t mean that the coverage of Arsenal needs to stop. In the latest episode, Adam and Scott talk about the Ramsdale vs Raya debate and when we might see David Raya make his first appearance for Arsenal. There is a report in the Daily Mail (YMMV here on believability) that Raya might be due for a run in the first team: "Mail Sport understands Gunners head coach Mikel Arteta is giving serious consideration to giving Raya, a loan arrival from Brentford, a prolonged first-team opportunity in the coming weeks." There is also discussion about the early goal-keeping stats that are floating around about Ramsdale and how much stock to put into that. Later is the discussion of the Ballon d’Or nominations for three Arsenal players. This is the first time in a long time (going back to Alexis Sanchez) that an Arsenal player has had the honor. To wrap up part one is a look back on Nicolas Pepe and his time at Arsenal coming to an end. Should Arsenal have done better with the scouting and recruitment? How does this look in hindsight and what do we learn from this transfer. Last is a discussion of the PGMOL releasing select audio between the referee and the video assistant referee for contentious calls. One of those was the penalty decision for Kai Havertz. Here is what Howard Webb said about the incident. Howard Webb: “And I was watching this game and thought to myself, that looks like a penalty kick. At full speed as Kai Havertz goes between Wan-Bissaka and Casemiro. The penalty was given and we know that the VAR will always check every penalty situation. “It was a good use of VAR. The referee believed that Wan-Bissaka had tripped Havertz, but the video shows something quite different that there's no actual contact initially. “Another step by Havertz, his leg goes into Wan-Bissaka. The VAR, really calm and concise, recognises all of that, thinks it's a clear and obvious error. I agree. Recommends a review. We get to the right decision.” It is positive to hear the process but it still needs to probably be refined more. Thanks for listening, If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the podcast, please subscribe and consider leaving a rating and review. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

TRANSFERS! Or more precisely the lack thereof. That is how the end of the transfer window has gone for Arsenal and has caused people to go into a tizzy with the overall squad. So that seems like a job for the stats guys to take the cold hard rational look at things and grade how the window went for Arsenal. After the break things switch to looking at the draw for the Champions League. Arsenal drew what looks to be a group on the easier side with Sevilla, PSV, and RC Lens. Adam breaks things down and gives us his thoughts on all the teams. All that and more on the latest edition of the Cannon Stats Podcast. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

On a special bonus pod, Scott is joined by of the Substack Kwest Thoughts. They chat about the state of Manchester United, how they are still struggling so far this season with an identity that has not evolved and still looks like it doesn’t quite fit with the team. In the second half of the show, they talk about the article written looking at the idea that fans like to dwell on that certain players got away or could have come cheap years previously if only [insert excuse] hadn’t happened. Last the conversation takes a turn towards the Super League and the general state of the game. All this and more on the latest edition of the Cannon Stats Podcast. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

The first version cut off the ending of the podcast, this version should have the full audio. There is a week left in the transfer market and Arsenal are still looking at a squad that is over-stocked with players. The start of trying to get sales, loans, and departures of all kinds are in full swing and the main focus of part 1. Adam and Scott talk about the pending sale of Folarin Balogun to AS Monaco, going into if this was it good business and if the club could have or should have done anything different with him. They also look at the other players in Departure lounge, in Kieran Tierney, Nicolas Pepe, Sambi Lokonga, and Rob Holding. For the last section of Part 1, there is a look at the newest link Perr Schuurs, a centerback from Torino. FCA Voting is Open Nominations for the Football Content Awards is open. We are still a relatively small website (but I think pretty mighty) and it would be pretty cool to see if we can get a nomination. We are looking to see if you can support us in the “New Content Creator” category. You can do so through the FCA Website or through a tweet that includes the following: I am voting in @The_FCAs for @CannonStats in the category: best new content creator. I have also this shortcut that should automatically work: Click to Tweet Support Thank you for your support and we will cross our fingers. Part 2 In the second half of the show the attention turns towards the actual results on the field with a look back at Crystal Palace and the overall formation with Thomas Partey at right back. Finally a look ahead to Fulham and the Champions League draw. All that and more on the latest addition of the Cannon Stats Podcast. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.cannonstats.com On this latest Cannon Stats/Arsenal Vision crossover podcast I was happy to have the chance and privilege to talk to Jon Mackenzie. Jon is one of the hosts of the very entertaining YouTube Channel TifoIRL where several times a week they break down topics from around the Premier League and World Soccer. The video blow is a great example of the type of stu…

The big topic today in Arsenal land is dealing with the Jurriën Timber injury. Mikel Arteta was asked about and had this to say: "I am more thinking about the resources that we have within the team to keep doing what we want to do. It’s true that he was giving us very different things in terms of what we could do on both sides, but again, these things happen, and we have to be prepared for that." On the podcast Adam and Scott go through the internal options and then look at some of the external choices that might be possible. Adam did a look at this earlier this week: Then there is the news that Folarin Balogun is a potential target for Chelsea and Spurs. This leads to an interesting conversation about selling and the two-tiered economy for sales that is developing. Lastly, looking at how to deal with the selection headache that Arsenal will be facing for the match against Crystal Palace. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe

I am happy to have been joined by Tim from the website 7amkickoff.com. We go through some season predictions, the first weekend of matches, and how the rivals have strengthened in the window. This will probably become a monthly feature to check on how things are going with the OG of Arsenal stats. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.cannonstats.com/subscribe