Oil Ground Up

Dr. Anas Alhajji, Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, discusses various topics related to the oil market and energy industry. He provides insights into the driving forces and prognosis for the oil market, highlighting factors such as geopolitical tensions and the impact of voluntary cuts by OPEC Plus. Dr. Alhajji also discusses the Houthi rebels and their impact on the Gulf of Aden, as well as the significance of the Red Sea for oil trade. He shares his views on the equities market, non-fossil fuel energy, and the trading of commodities in non-dollar currencies. The conversation concludes with a review of the European energy situation and the importance of understanding the macroeconomic factors influencing the industry. You can follow Dr. Alhajji on X at @anasalhajji His EOA newsletter for Energy Outlook Advisors can be found HERE The Daily Energy Report can be found HERE

In this episode we step away from the energy industry's market dynamics and get a better glimpse of a niche part of the oil sector. Tony's guest today is Dirk Heseman. Dirk is a Well Plug and Abandonment Engineer currently working in the oil fields of Asia Pacific. In this conversation, we get a glimpse into the business of closing and plugging off-shore oil wells. The engineering of this endeavour is both calculated and simplistic by many means. But with a push to clamp down on the fossil fuel energy, many of these wells will be removed from the production funnel. Does that mean a boom in services specific to abandonment?

In this episode of OGU, Tony reconnects with Rory Johnston of Commodity Context to talk about some of the bigger headlines out of the oil sector the past few weeks. Not only has the Biden Administration reconnected with Venezuela to tap their crude supply, but the sector has also seen a pair of major merger and acquisition deals hit the market. This is all taking place with is a large supply-side tightness in the energy space. Rory shares his thoughts and analysis of these major headlines.

Tony connects with Robert Mullin, General Partner at Marathon Resource Advisor. The two discuss the escalations in the Middle East and their potential effects on the oil market. Robert also shares some thoughts on the intense moves in the crack spread and why the potential for an "echo boom" in the oil markets could present itself in the coming year.

Robert Meyer is a seasoned energy trader with LPS Capital. Through his experience in the sector, he's see the high and the lows of the oil markets. With the recent big moves in the price of a barrel of oil, Rob provides some insights into where the opportunities currently live. He also adds some thoughts on supply which listeners may find concerning.

Tony connects with his old friend, Doomberg, in this latest episode of OGU. TG and Doomberg hash out the recent outperformance of the oil market compared to the general markets this week. What the two see is a line of resistance coming up in oil, but a move past that would have the central banks concerned about another rise in inflation. The two talk about the SPR head fake and how inflationary forces could be coming back with the help of the energy market.

Tony Greer connect with Judd Arnold of Lake Cornelia Research Management, a firm which manages in excess of $100 million of outside capital. Judd talks about his unique approach to the energy, oil and natural gas trade, one which is quite different from that of Tony. The discussion first focuses on upside potential of oil/gas equities weighted to the S&P currently and where the upside potential of that ratio can go when/if value becomes a norm. Judd talks about off shore energy production in-depth and why he sees refiners more of a trade opportunity than an investment.

Tony's guest today is Josh Young, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Bison Interests. Josh has over 15 years of experience in investment management, 10 of which were focused on publicly-traded oil and gas securities. The two spend quite a bit of time in this conversation talking about the early stages of what, they believe, is a bull market in fossil fuel energy. Josh highlights a number of demand-side data and also shares his thoughts on why he is of little concern regarding oil trade settlements in Chinese Yuan.

In our second episode of Oil Ground Up, host Tony Greer joins a life-long friend in Dave Williams. Dave's career has spanned the energy sector, including a previous career in environmental services which then turned into a career in a smaller, independent oil company. Dave and Tony talk about the current price in oil and what it means for all sorts of companies. Dave also discusses why the major oil producers need smaller, independent firms and why often times a smaller nimble producers are in a much better position than the majors. The two also tackle the energy transition and the physics behind energy outputs, and demand, between traditional fossil fuels and the new sustainable energy options

Welcome to the first full episode of Oil Ground Up with Tony Greer. In this episode, TG welcomes in Rory Johnston of Commodity Context for a deep dive into a new year of oil markets and trading. Rory and TG discuss the crazy volatility in the 2022 market and why 2023 might see similar volatility but for different reasons. The narrative moves from the refiners to production. TG and Rory also spend a lot of time discussing the politicized SPR depletion and the circumstances of which the administration will look to increase the stockpile. Rory is a data-first, visualization-forward commodity market researcher specializing in the oil & gas industry. His newsletter can be found at https://www.commoditycontext.com/

Today Clear Commodity Network launches a new podcast series on the global oil and gas markets. "The Oil Ground Up" is hosted by TG Macro Founder and The Morning Navigator financial newsletter author, Tony Greer. Tony founded TG Macro in August of 2016 to create an independent research firm where he could combine 25 years in trading and 15 years writing a daily newsletter into one analytical platform. The Oil Ground Up podcast is Tony's way of expanding his insights into the global energy markets. Listeners will take a glimpse into the ecosystem of oil and gas, one which expands beyond the price movements of the resource, and into the everyday lives of the consumer. Today, we begin the journey.