Conversations on Strategy Podcast

If leaders of terrorist organizations can recruit, indoctrinate, plan, and operate using AR with little drop-off in effectiveness while staying safely in hiding, the challenges faced by national security and law-enforcement organizations will increase exponentially. Keywords: animaia, augmented realty, AR, virtual reality, terrorism E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis chapter.

This episode explores the intersection of food insecurity and precision agriculture in the United States with author Michael W. Parrott, an expert in Special Operations Forces counterintelligence. Drawing from his experience in combat zones and research, Parrott discusses the vulnerabilities of the agricultural industry and the potential nexus with violent extremist organizations globally. He delves into the evolving tactics of these groups, the role of precision agriculture in modern farming, and the importance of enhancing security measures to protect against cyber and physical threats. Parrott emphasizes the imperative of studying the impact of nation-states and non-state actors on agriculture and calls for proactive measures to fortify the industry against emerging risks. Keywords: food insecurity, VEOs, violent extremist organizations, China, DJI Agriculture E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.

Dr. Sarah Lohmann discusses the use of AI in terrorism, emphasizing its potential for both good and malicious intent. She highlights terrorists’ utilization of AI tools for recruitment and accessing sensitive data, posing cybersecurity risks. Lohmann also touches on AI regulation efforts, disparities between regions, and the importance of innovation and transparency in AI governance. Global cooperation is crucial in mitigating security risks in the digital age. Keywords: artificial intelligence, AI, ChatGPT, Perplexity, terrorism E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.

Colonel Eric Hartunian and Lieutenant Colonel Paul Milas, co-editors with Susan Sims of Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective, discuss their newly published collaborative study from the US Army War College Press. The publication focuses on how terrorists may exploit emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, augmented reality, biotechnology, and nanotechnology from an American and Western Hemisphere perspective over the next 5–10 years. They highlight the pace of technological development and the need to safeguard against terrorist exploitation of these innovations. E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the collaborative study. Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, AI, drones, nanotechnology, agriculture, augmented reality

Lieutenant Colonel Zachary Griffiths and Sergeant First Class Leyton Summerlin of the Harding Project discuss military discourse and why it matters, the impact of professional writing, tips for aspiring writers, and more. Named after Major General Edwin Forrest Harding, the Harding project focuses on US Army professional publications with the intent to renew and revive them. Keywords: Harding Project, professional discourse, US Army journals, writing, publishing E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.

Contesting Paul Scharre’s influential vision of “centaur warfighting” and the idea that autonomous weapon systems will replace human warfighters, this podcast proposes that the manned-unmanned teams of the future are more likely to be minotaurs, teams of humans under the control, supervision, or command of artificial intelligence. It examines the likely composition of the future force and prompts a necessary conversation about the ethical issues raised by minotaur warfighting. The guests also explore culture and trust in relation to AI and the military. Keywords: manned-unmanned teaming, centaur warfighting, artificial intelligence, future force, ethics, trust

Indirect-Fire Innovation, and Brigadier General Shane P. Morgan, 56th Field Artillery commandant at Fort Sill, Oklahoma, discuss Deveraux’s book, military professional discourse, and the future of the Field Artillery branch. Keywords: military innovation and adaptation, indirect fire, combat lessons, professional discourse, Field Artillery Journal, Field Artillery Professional Bulletin, future military capabilities E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or Major Deveraux’s book, the genesis of the conversation.

Contesting Paul Scharre’s influential vision of “centaur warfighting” and the idea that autonomous weapon systems will replace human warfighters, this podcast proposes that the manned-unmanned teams of the future are more likely to be minotaurs, teams of humans under the control, supervision, or command of artificial intelligence. It examines the likely composition of the future force and prompts a necessary conversation about the ethical issues raised by minotaur warfighting. The guests also explore culture and trust in relation to AI and the military. Keywords: manned-unmanned teaming, centaur warfighting, artificial intelligence, future force, ethics, trust E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war. In this episode, Dr. Jared M. McKinney, Dr. Peter Harris, Col. Rich D. Butler, and Josh Arostegui discuss Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait and the possible trajectories for China and Taiwan over the coming decades. Keywords: China, Taiwan, deterrence, One China, Chinese Communist Party, Silicon Shield, deterrence theory E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war. In this episode, Dr. Jared M. McKinney, Dr. Peter Harris, Col. Rich D. Butler, and Josh Arostegui discuss Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Straight and the possible trajectories for China and Taiwan over the coming decades. Keywords: China, Taiwan, deterrence, One China, Chinese Communist Party, Silicon Shield, deterrence theory E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.

In this episode, Dr. Luke P. Bellocchi, Major Jamie Critelli, and Captain Gustavo Ferreira address strategic concerns the United States should consider when evaluating the current Asia-Pacific environment, including Taiwan’s potential food insecurity should China invade or blockade Taiwan, China’s supply of rare-earth elements and how a conflict with China might affect the US technology and defense sectors, and ramifications for the global economy if a Chinese blockade around Taiwan is successful. E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: China, Taiwan, food insecurity, rare-earth elements, global economy

Jody Prescott and Brenda Oppermann discuss conflict-related sexual violence and the role of leadership vis-à-vis sexual and gender-based violence. While progress has been made in recent years, including United Nations resolutions in 1983 and 2000 and the US Women, Peace, and Security Act in 2017 [with its most recent iteration published in 2023], there is still much to do to address conflict-related sexual violence worldwide. Keywords: conflict-related sexual violence; Women, Peace, and Security Act; human rights; leadership; United Nations E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.

How are the Middle East and South America connected, and what does it mean for the United States and other countries in the Western Hemisphere? From geopolitics to economic repercussions, diplomatic relations, security concerns, global energy markets, humanitarian efforts, and more, R. Evan Ellis discusses the far-reaching impact of events in the Middle East. Keywords: Israel, Gaza, South America, Brazil, energy E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article.

In this episode, Colonel Paul Lushenko, PhD, discusses drones and their use in Gaza and Ukraine. Lushenko is a faculty instructor, and director of special operations in the Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations at the US Army War College. His most recent book, The Legitimacy of Drone Warfare: Evaluating Public Perceptions, was published by Routledge in January 2024. Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: drones, artificial intelligence, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, Russia

Integrating artificially intelligent technologies for military purposes poses a special challenge. In previous arms races, such as the race to atomic bomb technology during World War II, expertise resided within the Department of Defense. But in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race, expertise dwells mostly within industry and academia. Effective employment of AI technology cannot be relegated to a few specialists. Not everyone needs to know how to fly a plane to have an effective air force, but nearly all members of the military at every level will have to develop some level of AI and data literacy if the US military is to realize the full potential of AI technologies. Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial wisdom, ChatGPT, large language model E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on the monograph or the podcast.

The 16th annual Kingston Consortium on International Security conference, “International Competition in the High North,” took place on October 11–13, 2022, in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. The conference examined the Arctic region in the context of ongoing climate change and against the backdrop of war in Ukraine. Over the past several years, the United States has acknowledged the growing importance of the Arctic as a strategic region, and the Department of Defense and each of the US military services have published Arctic policies or strategies. In addition, the Department of Defense has created a new regional studies center, the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies in Alaska. Canada and the other Arctic Council nations have also acknowledged the growing importance of the Arctic region, revised strategic frameworks, and changed institutional approaches to ensure Arctic security challenges arising from great-power competition and other threats, like those to the environment, are addressed. This volume captures these ideas for the United States and its allies so all can benefit from this experience. E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: Arctic, Arctic Council, China, climate change, indigenous peoples, Russia

Taiwan has become increasingly important to the United States and its allies as the Russia-Ukraine War has united democracies against authoritarian expansionism and has developed an international democracy-authoritarianism dynamic in global affairs. Part one of this article clearly outlined the geopolitical, economic, and soft-power reasons why Taiwan is strategically important. Part two reviewed the development of US and allied policy statements on Taiwan and provides policymakers and military strategists with incremental but realistic recommendations for understanding the current dynamic of the region and fashioning responses to deter further authoritarian aggression. E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: Taiwan, China, Russia, Ukraine, National Security Strategy, Biden Read the transcript: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jan/23/2003379988/-1/-1/0/20240122COS-PODCAST-TRANSCRIPT-BELLOCCHI_BUTLER_AROSTGUI.PDF

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This podcast introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the podcast provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war. E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: Taiwan, China, deterrence, cross-strait relations, Indo-Pacific, East Asia, US foreign policy, international security Download the transcript: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Jan/16/2003376954/-1/-1/0/COS-PODCAST-TRANSCRIPT-MCKINNEY_HARRIS.PDF

Dr. Conrad C. Crane and Dr. Brian McAllister Linn address the Army’s recruiting crisis—especially for combat arms. Talent management was identified as an issue for the Army in 1907 in a General Staff report and continues to be a challenge. The results of the President’s Commission on an All-Volunteer Force in 1970 may have complicated matters further. Read Dr. Crane’s article: https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/01/28/does_the_all-volunteer_force_have_an_expiration_date_878344.html Read Dr. Linn’s article: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol53/iss3/3/ E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: US Army history, personnel policy, talent management, Army People Strategy, all-volunteer force

This podcast analyzes the cutting-edge understandings of deterrence with empirical evidence of Chinese strategic thinking and culture to build such a strategy and explores the counter-arguments from Part 1 of this series. Read the original article: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol51/iss4/4/ Keywords: China, Taiwan, CCP, PRC, Broken Nest, USA Episode Transcript: Stephanie Crider (Host) (Prerecorded Conversations on Strategy intro) Decisive Point introduces Conversations on Strategy, a US Army War College Press production featuring distinguished authors and contributors who explore timely issues in national security affairs. The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the podcast’s guest and are not necessarily those of the Department of the Army, the US Army War College, or any other agency of the US government. The guests in speaking order on this episode are: (Guest 1 Dr. Roger Cliff) (Cliff) Conversations on Strategy welcomes Dr. Roger Cliff. Dr. Cliff is a research professor of Indo-Pacific Affairs in the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College. His research focuses on China’s military strategy and capabilities and their implications for US strategy and policy. He’s previously worked for the Center for Naval Analyses, the Atlantic Council, the Project 2049 Institute, the RAND Corporation, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. (Host) The Parameters 2021-22 Winter Issue included an article titled, “Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan.” Authors Dr. Jared M. McKinney and Dr. Peter Harris laid out an unconventional approach to the China-Taiwan conundrum. Shortly after the article was published, Parameters heard from Eric Chan, who disagreed with them on many fronts. We’ve invited you here today, Roger, to provide some additional insight on the topic. Let’s jump right in and talk about “Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan. What is the essence of Jared McKinney and Peter Harris’s article “Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan?” (Cliff) So this article is an attempt to find an innovative solution to the Taiwan problem that has bedeviled the United States since 1950. In this particular case, the author’s goal is not to find a long-term, permanent solution of the problem, but simply to find a way to deter China from using force against Taiwan in the near term. Specifically, a way that doesn’t entail risking a military conflict between two nuclear-armed superpowers. Their proposed solution is a strategy of deterrence by punishment, whereby even a successful conquest of Taiwan would result in unacceptable economic, political, and strategic costs for Beijing. The premise of the article is that China’s military is now capable enough that it could conquer Taiwan, even if the United States intervened in Taiwan’s defense. The result, they argue, is that the long-standing US deterrence-by-denial strategy for deterring a Chinese use of force against Taiwan—in other words, by threating Beijing with the risk that a use of force against Taiwan would fail—is no longer credible. Unlike most strategies of deterrence by punishment, the strategy that McKinney and Harris proposed does not primarily rely on military attacks on China. Instead, the punishment comes in the form of imposing other costs on China for a successful use of force against Taiwan. This has several elements. One is the United States selling to Taiwan weapon systems that will be most cost-effective and defending against a Chinese invasion. This would make a successful invasion of Taiwan more difficult and, therefore, more costly for China. Related to this, they also recommend that Taiwan’s leaders prepare the island to fight a protracted insurgency, even after Taiwan’s conventional military forces have been defeated. The most important element of their strategy, however, consists of the United States and Taiwan laying plans for what they call “a targeted, scorched-earth strategy” that...