Top Traders Unplugged

Cem Karsan sits down with Neil Howe to examine what a true regime shift means for markets and society. Howe argues that we are deep into a Fourth Turning, a generational winter that historically brings institutional fracture, geopolitical strain, and inflation that reshapes debts, assets, and political power. Cem ties that arc to today’s realities: the exhaustion of the 40 year tailwind from falling rates, record valuations meeting refinancing risk, and the uncomfortable truth that 60/40 has failed for long stretches before. They explore the growing divide between capital and labor, the pivot from globalization to industrial policy, and the rising appeal of commodities, cash, and convex hedges in a world where outcomes are less linear. Howe also details how his Fourth Turning ETF reflects that view, pairing thematic equities with real assets and disciplined tail protection. This is a conversation about preparing, not predicting, when history starts to rhyme a little louder. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:28 - Introducing Neil Howe and why this conversation matters now 03:37 - What the Fourth Turning is and how the cycle works 10:26 - “The Fourth Turning Is Here” and the practical question: what do we do? 16:42 - Rates, inequality, and why the last 40 years may not repeat 20:17 - Inflation as a crisis tool, not a forecasting error 26:43 - Options, convexity, and non-linear portfolios in regime change 33:31 - The surge into “non-correlated” assets and what it signals 39:39 - Market closures, devaluation, and the limits of buy-the-dip history 45:28 - Commodities as a missing portfolio leg and the volatility debate 48:12 - Howe’s ETF framework: themes, commodities, cash, and tail hedges 52:43 - Timing the crisis, geopolitics, and the authoritarianism question Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

In this episode, Alan Dunne and Cem Karsan explore a market that appears calm on the surface yet increasingly unstable underneath. As indices move sideways, they discuss how options flows and structured products are reshaping market behavior, driving rotation rather than direction. From the weakening of former leaders to the rise of defensives, the conversation turns to what these shifts may signal about a broader topping process. They also examine the growing influence of AI narratives, political incentives, and global tensions, not as isolated shocks but as forces building pressure within the system. The result is a discussion about how markets evolve when structure, policy, and sentiment begin to move out of sync. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Cem on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 Intro to the Systematic Investor Series 00:23 Performance check: CTAs strong, trend tailwinds 03:13 Range-bound indices, but big dispersion and rotation 03:45 Why options pin the index: dealer flows and vol compression 05:42 Dispersion mechanics: idiosyncratic risk, falling correlation 07:32 Rotation as a topping process: leaders fade, defensives rise 09:54 OPEX and quarterly expiries: why timing windows matter 11:56 The March support effect, then weaker flows into April 17:02 AI narrative shock: anxiety, backlash, and policy consequences 22:32 Populism versus deflation stories: why inflation returns 32:43 Gold outlook: secular bull, but expect two-sided volatility 45:45 Rates as “tectonic plates”: vol compressed now, release later 50:23 Midterms, incentives, and the fight for control 57:42 Liquidity loop: markets stop rising, collateral stops expanding Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

In today’s episode we talk to Mark Roberts, founder of Off Wall Street, a legendary provider of short selling research to hedge funds. Seven months before Enron became the biggest bankruptcy in US corporate history, Off Wall Street published a report recommending the shares be sold. The success of this call made Mark and Off Wall Street synonymous with original and rigorous research. We talk to Mark about his unusual personal background, how being a hippie in Berkeley in the 1960s prepared him for identifying overvalued companies two decades later. He explains why questionable accounting and high valuations are the “symptoms, not the disease” and compares today’s markets with those of the Dotcom era. His new book, Off Wall Street How To Win At Short Selling By Betting Against The Crowd was just released in February 2026. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Mark on LinkedIn and read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 01:41 - Introducing Mark Roberts, Off Wall Street, Enron, and the book 03:35 - An unconventional path: French literature, skepticism, and early life choices 07:40 - The first “short sale”: selling a failing steel business and learning risk firsthand 11:10...

Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold’s steady rise and a surprising divergence between US and emerging market inflation, the conversation centers on rotation, uncertainty, and shifting assumptions about safety. They explore whether Treasuries still anchor portfolios the way they once did, how fiscal pressures could reshape monetary policy, and why regime thinking matters for systematic investors. Beneath it all is a reminder that correlations change, narratives evolve, and adaptability remains the most durable edge in uncertain markets. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Mark on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Introduction & market check-in 02:52 – February performance: CTAs, trend following & commodities 04:53 – Peak bubble? AI, metals & speculative excess 07:10 – Gold demand, central banks & safe-haven flows 10:40 – The AI narrative shift & tech repricing 13:22 – Global rotation: US vs Europe & emerging markets 15:22 – EM inflation now lower than US — why it matters 21:48 – Why macro still matters (regime thinking vs stock picking) 31:49 – Fiscal vs monetary dominance explained 41:59 – $700B in Treasury issuance — scale of the debt...

The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow grind reshaping productivity, debt, currencies, and political stability. From dollar regime risk to state capitalism, from market concentration to commodity repricing, the discussion moves beyond headlines to structural fault lines. Is gold signaling debasement? Can the U.S. sustain its debt path? Does AI lift productivity or hollow it out? Rather than predict collapse, Jakobsen outlines a drawn-out transition where capital reallocates, volatility hides beneath the surface, and political systems are tested long before markets finally react. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Steen on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 01:38 - Introducing Steen Jakobsen 03:45 - From trading floors to outrageous predictions 06:32 - Dollar hedging and regime shift signals 08:06 - Davos as a macro...

Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a deeper debate about model design, short versus long horizon signals, and whether innovation in liquid alternatives serves investors or sales desks. From AI disruption to product engineering and allocator behavior, this episode explores where systematic strategies truly create value and where structural incentives distort outcomes. In a changing macro regime, clarity of purpose may matter more than ever. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introducing the Systematic Investor series 01:17 - AI disruption and systematic investing 06:52 - The shifting perception of US risk 09:21 - Winter Olympics and market metaphors 12:59 - Hedge funds versus private equity 19:23 - 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation 22:17 - Why CTAs did not fully capture gold 29:48 - Short term versus long term trend models 35:27 - Letting risk run versus investor palatability 44:43 - The problem with liquid alternatives 51:21 - Product design versus fiduciary duty 59:06 - QIS, innovation and investor sophistication 01:04:41 - Model risk and the myth of risk premia 01:10:51 - Hopes for a trending year ahead Copyright © 2025 – CMC

A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capital becomes a policy tool. The conversation moves from China’s exported deflation to Europe’s structural constraints, then into America’s strategy of attracting investment with tariff leverage. Beneath it all sits a political question: what happens if the governing coalition fractures ahead of the midterms. Harnett argues that is the moment the dollar turns from anchor to risk. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Ian on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - The gray swan: political fracture and the point to sell the dollar 00:37 - Show intro and risk disclaimer 01:33 - Setting the frame: global macro, geopolitics, and regime change 04:34 - The new regime: inflation risk and the stock-bond relationship breaking 06:39 - Structural inflation drivers: deglobalization, trade weaponization, China’s deflation export 09:14 - Capital as a battleground: surcharges, controls, and Europe’s capital markets problem 12:02 - Europe’s catalyst problem: why it may take a crisis to build a true safe asset 14:44 - America’s playbook: inbound capital, tariff bargaining, and “neo-royalism” 18:32...

Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals 04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework 10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction 12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets 16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver’s collapse 22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals 24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions 31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making 34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update 37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL 41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability 45:13 - MAN Group paper...

Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge funds, and applied AI, Ben explains why stories, not data, increasingly drive outcomes in modern markets. The conversation spans unstructured data, inference, common knowledge, and the mechanics of narrative momentum. Together, they examine consumer expectations, inflation silence, geopolitical signaling, and the slow shift away from US dominance. What emerges is a framework for understanding markets as reflexive systems, where perception often matters more than reality. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to U Got Options and the trading floor setting 02:18 - Ben Hunt’s background and Epsilon Theory origins 04:11 - Markets as the ultimate multiplayer game 06:15 - Inference, unstructured data, and narrative analysis 08:18 - Why sentiment and word counts miss the real signal 11:16 - Mapping meaning and truthy stories 15:00 - LLMs as operating systems, not oracles 18:01 - Giving money back and when models stop working 21:16 - Applying narrative tools beyond markets 24:10 - Consumer weakness versus bullish expectations 30:43 - Inflation, recession, and why markets do not care 33:29 - Dormant stories and volatility discovery 34:26 -

Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification across markets and speeds matters more than ever. Drawing on new research, they examine dispersion within the CTA universe, the limits of replication, and how volatility targeting quietly determines outcomes. From precious metals to currencies, from crisis alpha to geopolitical risk, this episode offers a grounded look at why trend following thrives during disruption and why regime change remains its natural habitat. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 00:39 - Weather disruptions and market perspective 02:31 - Precious metals and extreme commodity moves 04:28 - Gold, central banks, and monetary regime shifts 07:43 - Replication versus full CTA diversification 09:47 - Liquidity differences across metals 12:03 - Metals leading trend performance in 2026 15:01 - Multi-sector trends and diversification benefits 20:13 - Media attention and the return of trend following 23:29 - Research insights on speed and dispersion 31:44 - Trend speed and timing tradeoffs 40:59 - Market concentration and narrow universes 43:19 - Volatility estimation as a hidden...

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Dario on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and context 02:25 - Global uncertainty and growth expectations 05:00 - The K-shaped economy under scrutiny 08:12 - Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects 11:07 - Fed independence and political pressure 17:06 - The race to appoint the next Fed chair 26:35 - Productivity data and the AI narrative 35:51 - Labor market stall speed debate 39:56 - Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk 46:03 - Japan’s normalization and demographic...

In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent research and market behavior, the conversation examines why traditional bond allocations struggle during inflationary regimes and how commodity trend strategies may offer structural resilience. The discussion spans geopolitics, deglobalization, energy markets, fixed income autocorrelation, and the limits of forecasting macro outcomes. Rather than predicting inflation’s path, the episode focuses on portfolio construction that can endure multiple regimes. What emerges is a disciplined argument for robustness over precision in an increasingly unstable global system. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and series context 01:08 - Inflation back on the radar 02:38 - Recent podcast influences and inflation narratives 06:56 - Geopolitics, trust, and market fragmentation 08:52 - Commodities, volatility, and supply driven moves 10:48 - Trend performance and early 2026 conditions 11:30 - Fixed income, FX, and emerging market trends 17:26 - The all weather portfolio problem 18:18 - Bonds, inflation regimes, and correlation breakdowns 22:39 - Commodity trend as a defensive building block 27:01 - Are markets signaling higher inflation ahead 30:04 - What...

Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner’s Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are joined by co-author Alex Imas who wrote the new edition alongside Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler. When are we likely to spend a windfall and when are we likely to save it? When is it most dangerous to bid for business against competitors? And are ‘arbitrage’ opportunities in markets really a free lunch? ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Alex on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and framing the law of one price 01:42 - Introducing the Ideas Lab series and Alex Imas 03:44 - From pre med to behavioral economics 08:15 - Mental accounting and how people really treat money 10:45 - Housing wealth, illiquidity, and self control 15:39 - Savings behavior, capital gains, and inequality 17:11 - Attention, salience, and why nudges work or fail 22:07 - Nudges versus incentives and policy confusion 25:18 - The winner’s curse and common value auctions 30:01 - Auctions, IPOs, and competitive overbidding 33:44 - The law of one price and market mispricing 36:50...

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and information digestion to a sober review of what truly drove dispersion in 2025. We explore why speed and universe choice mattered more than expected, why recent outcomes may be misleading, and why reacting to performance is often a mistake. The discussion then turns technical, unpacking new academic research on nonlinear momentum, signal construction, and the deeper mechanics behind trend following’s defensive behavior during stress. The episode closes with a reminder that discipline, not prediction, remains the strategy’s core advantage. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and welcome 01:05 - A disrupted start to 2026 03:10 - Narratives, information, and price formation 07:06 - Why stories often fail to move markets 09:31 - Recurring themes and market attention 10:59 - Strong early conditions for trend following 12:01 - Dispersion across strategies in 2025 15:06 - Familiar patterns in an unfamiliar year 18:42 - Speed versus universe in trend design 23:17 - Why recent outperformance can mislead 31:08 - Institutional views on trend following 40:21 - Nonlinear time series momentum research 50:30 - Autonomy of trend and crisis...

As the long era of neoliberal certainty frays, Mark Blyth argues that we are drifting back toward a 19th century world of rival blocs, imperial habits and dangerous illusions. In this conversation, he traces how repeated “software crashes” of capitalism produced inflation, austerity, populism and now a return to industrial policy and great power confrontation. He connects deficits, demographics, migration, and housing with the lived reality of stagnant wages and rising prices. Along the way, he questions central bank mythology, challenges deficit obsession, and asks whether politics can adapt before events force a far harsher reset. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Cold open and warning on a return to 19th century style imperialism 00:23 - Niels and Alan introduce Mark Blyth and set the macro context 02:24 - From Scottish childhood to monetarism and the politics of macro ideas 08:33 - Capitalism as hardware and software and the recurring crashes of each regime 15:32 - The slow death of neoliberalism and the rise of populist reactions 18:57 - Deficits, austerity, bond vigilantes and why the house is on fire anyway 23:49 - Affordability, grocery prices, housing and the disconnect in elite dashboards 29:02 - Generational conflict, asset concentration and the missing left...

The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shift that favors trend following. In this episode, he challenges the illusion of control baked into most trading systems: why backtests offer comfort, not readiness; why precision breeds fragility; and why the future isn’t something to predict, but something being built in real time. This is a conversation about trading with humility, designing for persistence, and letting go of the need to know. The signal is now. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and the start of 2026 03:21 - A fragmented global order and what it means for trend following 08:55 - Why coordination fades and imbalances persist 12:41 - Early market signals and unusual positioning 14:34 - 2025 in review, concentration and recovery 17:36 - Familiar pain and familiar payoffs in trend following 23:00 - Timeframes, diversification, and ensemble thinking 28:37 - Brakes and acceleration, trading the now 40:58 - The future as unfinished, not hidden 49:54 - Prediction versus participation 53:53 - Optimization, comfort, and hidden fragility 01:02:49 - Predetermined response and process control 01:05:30 - Closing reflections and looking ahead Copyright © 2025

William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal of the forces that once kept inflation low and debt manageable. From de-globalization and demographic decline to energy constraints and fragile supply chains, the conversation traces how rising costs collide with record public and private leverage. White warns that policy makers are trapped between inflationary pressures and debt sustainability, with no clean exit in sight. The discussion closes on AI, currency fragmentation, and the uncomfortable possibility that today’s stability masks a far more dangerous future. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow William on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why unchecked booms become more dangerous over time 01:37 - Setting the stage for a new global macro regime 03:53 - From disinflation to persistent inflation pressure 07:10 - Supply side forces reversing after decades of support 12:07 - Debt accumulation and unintended policy consequences 13:03 - Why higher rates did not trigger an immediate crisis 18:53 - Debt dynamics and the problem of sustainability 19:57 - Tipping points and the psychology of market breaks 26:40 - What happens when...

In part two of our year-end roundtable, the Systematic Investor team goes beyond performance to ask harder questions about the path forward. Are today’s drawdowns a signal of structural change? - or just the cost of staying disciplined in a low-volatility regime? As allocators repackage old ideas under new acronyms and model drift tempts even seasoned managers, the conversation turns to what still holds. From AI and capital efficiency to the quiet value of doing less, this is about defending process when the payoff isn’t obvious - and knowing what not to change when pressure mounts. We close off with out 2026 Outrages Predictions... don't miss them! ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on LinkedIn. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn. Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn. Follow Richard on Twitter. Follow Mark on

In this Ideas Lab episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with venture capitalist and former founder Aubrie Pagano about what stands between today’s AI hype and a truly transformative AGI economy. Rather than treating AI as destiny, Aubrie maps the frictions that hold it back: hard power limits, fragile industrial data, and agents that still cannot coordinate with humans or each other. She explains why we may be a full capital cycle or two away from real AGI and why that delay is precisely where the best opportunities lie. The conversation then widens into the “Aquarius Economy,” a possible future in which human agency, not algorithms, becomes the scarcest and most valuable asset. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Aubrie on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why agent coordination is still clunky and unreliable 00:38 - Intro to Top Traders Unplugged and performance risk framing 01:34 - Kevin sets up the Ideas Lab and today’s focus on AGI 02:59 - Aubrie’s background as founder, researcher and VC shaping her lens 06:04 - Why she wrote about AGI and the Aquarius Economy 07:21 - AGI as the last cycle built on labor scarcity 10:41 - The blockers framework and why AGI may be a cycle or two away 12:58 - Blocker...

Niels is joined by all 9 amazing co-hosts, to discuss a year that refused to behave. In part one of the annual "roundtable", Niels and the group map why 2025 produced such striking dispersion across trend followers. They revisit the Liberation Day shock and the uncomfortable truth it exposed: results often came down to unglamorous choices like market selection, time horizon, and how quickly risk is resized after clustered volatility and sharp reversals. The conversation then widens to a structural theme: the rapid growth of strategies investors hope will sit outside stocks and bonds, from managed futures and multi strats to structured products, gold, and crypto, plus the liquidity, reflexivity, and selection challenges that follow when everyone reaches for the same diversifier. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on LinkedIn. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn. Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn. Follow Richard on