The Briefing Room

It's less than a week since the start of the US-Israel war with Iran. And it's already spread across the Gulf region as Iran retaliates. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader for 36 years, was killed in US and Israeli airstrikes on Saturday. The question now is who is in control in Iran and whether the regime in its current form will remain or if this will trigger major change. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss how the US-Israel war with Iran started and what comes next. Guests: Anshel Pfeffer, Israel Correspondent, The Economist Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at St Andrews University Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute Laurel Rapp, Director of the US and North America Programme at Chatham House. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Nathan Gower Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

It’s four years this week since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. And by this summer the conflict will have gone on for longer than the First World War. Casualties run into the hundreds of thousands. Peace talks brokered by the US have been off and on for the past few months, with President Putin demanding that Ukraine gives Russia full control of the eastern Donbas region, including the part it does not occupy. President Zelensky refuses. Meanwhile, Ukraine has experiened one of its harshest winters as its cities and energy infrastructure have been pounded by Russian drones and missiles. Still both sides fight on in a war which has become dominated by advanced drone technology. David Aaronovitch asks his guests whether anyone is winning and when and how this war might end. Guests: Mark Galeotti, head of Mayak Intelligence and author of "Forged in War: a military history of Russia from its beginnings to today." Dr Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute and author of "The Arms of the Future: Technology and Close Combat in the Twenty First Century." Rebecca Lissner, Senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations and lecturer at the Jackson School of Global Affairs, Yale University. Christopher Miller, Chief Ukraine Correspondent, The Financial Times and author of "The war came to us: life and death in Ukraine." Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley and Kirsteen Knight Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Pressure is building in the UK for a ban on social media use for young people as countries across the world watch Australia, which introduced its own ban for under 16s last December. Meanwhile, the government here is launching a public consultation on children’s use of social media which will look at a range of options, including a ban. It also said this week that it wants to create new legal powers so it can take action quickly. David Aaronovitch asks what the evidence so far tells us about social media and harm to young people and what else could be done about it short of an outright ban. Guests: Katy Watson, Sydney Correspondent Luke Tryl, Director More in Common Professor Amy Orben, Programme Leader at the MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit, University of Cambridge Professor Sonia Livingstone, Department of Media and Communications, London School of Economics Pete Etchells, Professor of Psychology and Science Communication, Bath Spa University Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley and Kirsteen Knight Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

In early January street protests in Iran turned deadly - thousands were killed by Iranian forces. What started as a demonstration about economic conditions had turned into demands for regime change. President Trump said he would come to the aid of protesters. But so far he hasn’t. He’s amassed a US armada in the Gulf. And last Friday talks were held in Oman between American and Iranian officials about reducing Iran’s nuclear capacity. There’s been no agreement yet but more talks are expected. David Aaronovitch asks his guests what could happen next ? And how vulnerable the Iranian regime is, both inside the country and to a potential US attack? Guests: Kasra Naji,Special Correspondent, BBC Persian Arash Azizi, Writer and lecturer, Yale University Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute Dr Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East programme, Chatham House Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Emma Close Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Following the dramatic capture of the President of Venezuela and his wife by US special forces on January 3rd, The Briefing Room asks what’s next for Venezuela? Nicolas Maduro and Cilia Flores have been indicted on drug trafficking and weapons charges in a New York court while in Venezuela the deputy president, Delcy Rodriguez has been sworn in as the country’s interim president. Meanwhile Donald Trump says he is in charge of Venezuela. David Aaronovitch and a panel of Latin American experts discuss who will actually govern Venezuela, what’s going to happen with the oil industry and what the implications are for the rest of the region. GUESTS Hal Hodson, Americas editor, The Economist Christopher Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America at Chatham House Vanda Felbab-Brown Senior Fellow Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley and Kirsteen Knight Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

As both the year and the current series of The Briefing Room draw to a close, Europe and much of the world have been digesting a lengthy document outlining the Trump administration’s view of foreign policy. The National Security Strategy covers much of the globe but extra special vitriol was reserved for Europe with dire warnings that the continent is facing “civilisational erasure” partly due to immigration. At the same time the growing influence of “patriotic European parties” (those on the far right) is welcomed. But there’s more - the US wants to dominate the “Western Hemisphere” - the Americas and countries on its doorstep. It wants more trade with Asia and China, as well as the Middle East. But there are notable absences -there's no talk of a significant threat from either Russia or China. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss what all this means and ask how worried we, in Europe, should be about the current US view of the world? Guests: Frank Gardner, BBC Security Correspondent Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor, The Economist Rebecca Lissner, Senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations and lecturer, Jackson School of Global Affair, Yale University. Dr Christoph Heusgen, Former Chairman Munich Security Conference and former German Ambassador to United Nations Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight, Cordelia Hemming Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill Editor Richard Vadon

In a few days time resident doctors -who used to be known as junior doctors - were meant to be going on strike. This would be the 14th strike by the doctors’ union since March 2023. The ostensible reason was pay but now the dispute may be over without more increases to salary levels. The Government has instead made an offer to do something about the other big issue for early career doctors - working conditions and specialist training places. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss what's going on and ask what the problem is with the way we in Britain train our doctors? Guests: Hugh Pym, BBC Health Editor Sir Andrew Goddard, Consultant Gastroenterologist Professor Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Mark Dayan, Policy Analyst, Nuffield Trust. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight, Cordelia Hemming Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineers: Michael Regaard, Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

In her budget the Chancellor increased the state pension by 4.8 % in line with the government's triple lock formula. It was good news for pensioners but is it good news for the young? A constant background to spending and economic decisions for well over a decade now has been an argument about generational injustice. That the young are getting poorer. David Aaronovitch and guests look at the facts and ask whether the old are robbing the young and if so what should be done about it? Guests: Bobby Duffy, Professor of Public Policy at King’s College, London Sophie Hale, Principal Economist, Resolution Foundation Xiaowei Xu, Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Jane Falkingham Professor of Demography, Southampton University Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Cordelia Hemming, Kirsteen Knight Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

President Trump wants an end to the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainians want peace too - but not at any cost. The past week saw the emergence of a leaked US 28 - point- plan which was wholly unacceptable to President Zelensky and European leaders. But how it originated and why it looked like a Russian wish list has led to intense debate. ( It included Ukraine giving up territory it still holds in the east, as well as the area already occupied by Russia, a cap on the Ukrainian army of 600 thousand, a permanent ban on NATO membership for Ukraine and an amnesty on all war crimes. ) Talks hastily took place in Europe and Abu Dhabi and there’s now a revised version still to be agreed with Russia. President Zelensky wants to meet President Trump to agree the most sensitive issues.. So why did this latest attempt at peace in Ukraine emerge through a leaked document which many assumed had come straight from Russia? How has Europe and Ukraine responded and could it really mean an end to nearly four years of war? Guests: Angela Stent, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia. Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College, London Christopher Miller, Financial Times’ Chief Ukraine Correspondent Sir Laurie Bristow, former UK Ambassador to Russia and President of Hughes Hall, Cambridge. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Cordelia Hemming, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

This week the government announced an overhaul of the UK’s asylum system with the stated aim of making Britain look a lot less attractive to those planning to make their way across the Channel on a small boat or outstay their visa if already here. A raft of proposals include ending a refugee’s effective right to stay in the country indefinitely, a quicker way of deporting those who fail in their asylum applications and a less sympathetic approach to refugee families. Denmark has been held up in recent days as an example of a country with much tougher asylum policies. So are we in the UK now part of a wider European trend of clamping down on asylum seekers? And what can we learn from the success or failure of other asylum policies across the continent. Guests: Dr Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University Professor Andrew Geddes, Director of the Migration Policy Centre at the European University Institute in Florence. Susi Dennison, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight, Cordelia Hemming Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has been widely trailing this month’s budget and the difficult decisions she’ll have to make in just under two weeks time. This is being taken as code for tax rises and a possible break in Labour’s manifesto pledge with a rise in income tax. She’s said one of the key reasons for this is that the government's official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility or OBR, is going to lower its UK productivity growth forecast for the coming years. So why is UK productivity a problem and what can be done to improve it? Guests: Chris Giles, Economics Commentator, The Financial Times Helen Miller, Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies Duncan Weldon, economist and author Greg Thwaites, Research Director, Resolution Foundation. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Cordelia Hemming, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineers: Rod Farguhar and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Something is going in the southern Caribbean. The world’s largest aircraft carrier - the American USS Gerald R Ford- is on its way to the region. Small boats said to belong to Venezuelan drug smugglers are being blown up by the US military. Old US bases are being de-mothballed. And there’s media talk of Trump-induced regime change in Caracas, with Venezuela’s authoritarian, leftist president Nicolas Maduro in the crosshairs. In this week's Briefing Room, David Aaronovitch and guests ask what this military show of strength is really about and what it mean for the region? Guests: Will Grant, BBC Mexico, Central America and Cuba Correspondent. Jeremy McDermott, co-founder and co-director of InSight Crime, a Colombia-based think tank that studies organised crime in the Americas. Dr Christopher Sabatini, Senior Fellow for Latin America at Chatham House Dr Annette Idler, Associate Professor in Global Security at the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Cordelia Hemming Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

When a disaster or serious event happens, such as the Grenfell Tower fire, the Manchester Arena terrorist attack or the Covid pandemic, you can be pretty sure that a public inquiry will follow. They’re popular with the public as a means of investigating serious state failure. And for Governments they can be a good way of kicking a difficult issue into the long grass, as usually by the time the inquiry is finished a different set of politicians will have to deal with the report. There are currently 25 public inquiries in progress in the UK today - the most ever, with six announced so far this year. They range from one into Scottish child abuse, which is the longest current inquiry, to another into a police restraint death which has just lost its chair and the lawyers working for the inquiry, to Covid 19 - the largest currently underway. And which by the end of June this year had cost 177 million pounds. David Aaronovitch and guests discuss how these public inquiries work, what they achieve and who, if anyone, benefits from them? Guests: Judith Moritz: BBC Special Correspondent Deborah Coles, Executive Director, INQUEST Emma Norris, Director of Policy and Politics at IPPR think tank, Professor Lucy Easthope, emergency planner and responder and visiting Professor at the Centre for Death and Society, University of Bath. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight, Cordelia Hemming. Sound engineer: Duncan Hannant Editor: Richard Vadon.

Some of the biggest figures in finance, from the CEO of JPMorganChase to the Governor of the Bank of England, have been warning of potential shocks to the global economy. As excitement continues to build about the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence, the US stock market has boomed, potentially forming a fragile bubble. Meanwhile, recent bankruptcies in America have raised worries that a rapid growth in lending by private companies (so-called shadow banks) might be built on shaky ground - and have invoked memories of the subprime mortgage debacle that kicked off the Great Financial Crisis in 2007. And if that wasn’t enough, the threat that Donald Trump might reignite his tariff-driven trade war still looms over the global economy. So how worried should we be? David Aaronovitch speaks to the top experts to find out. Guests: Katie Martin, markets columnist at the Financial Times Duncan Weldon, economist and author of Blood and Treasure Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at investment company Panmure Liberum Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: Duncan Hannant

As Rachel Reeves approaches a tricky budget, her job has got that much harder. Some of our most fundamental economic data, statistics that policymakers are used to accepting at face value, suddenly have major question marks over their accuracy. The UK’s top stats agency, the Office for National Statistics, finds itself under considerable pressure as falling response rates to its surveys leave politicians flying blind. David Aaronovitch asks what this means for government decisions and how the ONS can rebuild confidence in its most vital statistics. Guests: Georgina Sturge, research affiliate at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford Professor Denise Lievesley, former Principal of Green Templeton College, Oxford Chris Giles, economics commentator at the Financial Times. Peter Lynn, Professor of Survey Methodology at the University of Essex Presenter: David Aaronovitch Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Producers: Nathan Gower, Kirsteen Knight, Cordelia Hemming Studio engineer: Duncan Hannant Editor: Richard Vadon

There have been in celebrations in Israel and Gaza at the announcement of a ceasefire and the beginning of a longer term plan for peace and reconstruction in Gaza. There have been ceasefires and hostage releases before, but then the death and destruction has resumed, so why is so much more hope being invested in the current plan? And what’s actually in it? Guests: Rushdi Abu-a-loaf, BBC Gaza Correspondent Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London David Makovsky, Director of the Program on Arab-Israel Relations at the Washington Institute of Near East Policy Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. Presenter: David Aaronovitch Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Kirsteen Knight, Cordelia Hemming Studio engineer: Dave O’Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

Five years ago we in the UK were in the false lull between the first wave of covid and the second, between the first variant and the second, between the first peak of covid deaths and the second, higher peak. There wasn’t a vaccine and we didn’t know when we might get one. Now it’s a memory. But another deadly pathogen might pop up in fifty years or it might be manifesting its early stages right now. In the final part of our three-part mini-series looking at how the resilient the UK might be in dealing with potential future crises, we’re asking…..how prepared are we to deal with the next pandemic? Guests: Dame Sarah Gilbert, Professor of Vaccinology at the Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford; Sir Peter Horby, Professor of Emerging Infections and Global Health, and Director of the Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford; Malik Peiris, Emeritus Professor of Virology in the School of Public Health at The University of Hong Kong Presenter: David Aaronovitch Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Producers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight, Sally Abrahams Studio engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

From councils disrupted by ransomware, leaked defence data or individuals duped by deep fakes, the UK faces increasing cyber threats. David Aaronovitch asks his guests how prepared we are - whether as government defending critical infrastructure or as individuals guarding our digital identities. Guests: Sadie Creese, Professor of Cyber Security in the department of computer science, Oxford University Dr Aybars Tuncdogan, Associate Professor in digital innovation and information security, Kings College, London Emily Taylor, CEO of Oxford Information Labs and Associate Fellow, Chatham House Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Ben Carter, Sally Abrahams and Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Rosie Strawbridge Sound Engineers: Dave O’Neill and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The UK is getting hotter. And wetter. Extreme weather events in the UK are happening more often. And that trend won’t stop any time soon. It all means more flooding and fire risk. Enter the R word - resilience - how well are we coping with what’s going on now, and how advanced is our planning for what’s coming? In the first of our three part mini series looking at how the resilient the UK might be in dealing with potential future crises we ask how prepared are we to deal with the changing climate? Guests: Mark Maslin, professor of Climatology at University College London Richard Dawson, professor of Engineering at Newcastle University Jess Neumann, Associate professor of hydrology at the University of Reading Producers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Productions co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

In a time of sluggish economic growth, the favourite way of squaring the circle of spending more but not increasing taxes is to borrow - and we have. Keeping everybody’s lights on during the pandemic and homes heated after the Russian invasion of Ukraine has helped send our national debt up from £1.8 trillion to £2.8 trillion in recent years. But the question for the chancellor Rachel Reeves is how much more debt we can afford - and how much more debt do the markets think we can afford? So what’s the answer to that? Guests: Duncan Weldon, economist and author of 'Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through' Mehreen Khan, economics editor of The Times Chris Giles, economics editor of The Financial Times Producers: Ben Carter, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Productions co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith