China Global

Today’s episode is the second in a three-part series that examines the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. In each of these episodes, we’re speaking with authors of a recently published German Marshall Fund study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs. Our podcast today focuses on the potential costs for domestic social stability. To recap, the study considered two scenarios occurring in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalated into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military were killed, US intervention eventually forced China to de-escalate. In the second scenario, a conflict escalated into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also US forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces were degraded and eventually withdrew after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties. Joining us today are Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Jake Rinaldi. Sheena is an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin and visiting research faculty at the US Army War College. Jake is an associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation. Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [02:11] Why This Matters to US Policymakers [04:37] Managing Social Stability During Conflict with Taiwan [08:01] How the CCP Identifies and Suppresses Sources of Instability [10:44] Social Stability Organizations and Institutions [15:06] Domestic Pressures & Potential Party Responses [19:00] Estimating Public Support for Reunification [23:09] Scenario 3: Protracted Conventional Conflict [26:55] Lessons Learned from COVID Lockdowns [31:28] Long-Term Implications for Stability Post-Conflict

Concern about the possibility of a Chinese attack against Taiwan has surged in recent years. Wargames and research studies have focused primarily on identifying gaps in US and allied capabilities with the goal of strengthening deterrence. A relatively understudied question, however, is the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. To address this gap, the German Marshall Fund led a study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs. GMF commissioned four papers on these key areas. We considered two scenarios that could realistically take place in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalated into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military were killed, US intervention eventually forced China to de-escalate. In the second scenario, a conflict escalated into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces were degraded and eventually withdrew after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties. The authors found that the costs to China of a failed military action against Taiwan would likely be considerable. We believe their findings are important and warrant wide dissemination. In this podcast, we’ll discuss the report’s major conclusions and implications. Then we’ll talk about the potential impact of a failed Chinese attempt to take Taiwan on China’s military capabilities and the possible international costs that Beijing could face. Our next two China Global podcasts will examine the implications of a failed military operation against Taiwan for China’s economy and social stability. Our guests today are Zack Cooper and Joel Wuthnow. Zack is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and lecturer at Princeton University. Joel is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU. Joel’s paper and this interview reflect only his personal views and not those of the National Defense University, the Department of War, or the US government. Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [03:22] Implications for China, the United States, and Taiwan [06:31] Actions to Strengthen Deterrence [08:50] Evaluating Costs and Risks for Chinese Decisionmakers [11:46] Lessons Learned for the PLA [14:05] Steps to Avoid Another Attack [17:14] Intensifying Frictions between Party and Military? [19:53] Anticipating US Intervention as a Military Variable [22:49] Countries and Organizations Likely to Respond to China [25:55] Potential Diplomatic Actions and Costs [31:50] A Treaty Alliance with Taiwan [34:44] Why International Costs Matter to China

Although geographically distant from Chinese shores, Latin America and the Caribbean occupy an important place in Chinese foreign policy. In the past decade, China has significantly expanded its influence in the region. The main vector of Chinese involvement has been economic, including securing access to commodities such as soybeans, copper, oil, and lithium, creating markets for Chinese companies, and deepening financial ties through trade, lending, and infrastructure investment. On December 10, China released a new white paper on its relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean, the third such document following earlier editions in 2008 and 2016. The White Paper characterizes the region as “an essential force in the process toward a multipolar world and economic globalization.” Its release came on the heels of the Trump Administration’s release of its National Security Strategy, which places unprecedented emphasis on the Western Hemisphere and asserts that the US seeks a region “free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets,” highlighting the growing strategic salience of Latin America and the Caribbean in US-China competition. To discuss the new White Paper and the implications of China’s policies in the LAC for the United States and US-China relations, we are joined by Dr. Evan Ellis. Dr. Ellis is a research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. He previously served on the Secretary of State’s policy planning staff with responsibility for Latin America and the Caribbean as well as international narcotics and law enforcement issues. Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [02:07] US and China on a Collision Course? [04:50] Chinese Priorities in Latin America [08:33] U.S. Security Risks from Chinese Port Investments [11:45] How China Uses CELAC to Advance Its Agenda [14:27] How Latin Americans View China’s Growing Presence [17:22] Honduras and the Republic of China [21:22] How Beijing Might Address U.S. Concerns [25:09] China's Reaction to US and Venezuela

Tensions between China and Japan have spiked since November 7 when Japan’s newly elected prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, said in the Japanese parliament that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a situation threatening Japan’s survival. Under Japan's 2015 security laws, that suggests Japan's self-defense forces could be activated to respond. The following day, the Chinese consul general in Osaka, Xue Jian, posted that China had no choice but to cut off the prime minister’s head. China-Japan relations have since plummeted. China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, stated that Takaichi had “crossed a red line that should not have been touched.” China has taken retaliatory actions, restricting tourism to Japan and banning imports of Japanese seafood, among other actions. Why has Beijing reacted so strongly and how far are China-Japan relations likely to deteriorate? Joining us today to discuss the latest episode in China-Japan relations is Professor Akio Takahara. Professor Takahara is a Distinguished Visiting Professor at Tokyo Woman’s Christian University and an Emeritus Professor at the University of Tokyo. He is also an Honorary Senior Fellow on Chinese Politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [02:07] The State of China-Japan Relations Pre-Dispute [02:49] Beijing’s Reaction and Intended Audience [05:42] Continuity in Takaichi’s Stance [10:31] Why a Chinese Takeover of Taiwan is Existential to Japan [13:03] China’s Signals and Restraint [16:30] Recommendations for De-escalation [19:18] Senkaku Islands Dispute in Connection to Taiwan Dispute [22:04] Beijing’s Potential Claims on Okinawa [24:23] View in Japan of the US Reaction [26:36] Takaichi’s Support in Japan

The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission has just released its 2025 annual report to Congress. The annual report’s analysis and recommendations are a crucial source of information for Congress, the executive branch, and observers of US-China relations. This year’s report includes 28 key recommendations for Congress. On this episode of China Global, we have two Commissioners joining us to discuss the report, Commissioner Aaron Friedberg and Commissioner Mike Kuiken. Commissioner Friedberg is Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and co-director of its Center for International Security Studies. He is also a non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, counselor to the National Bureau of Asian Research, and previously served as Vice President Dick Cheney’s Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs. Commissioner Kuiken is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution and advisor to the Special Competitive Studies Project. He has over 20 years of experience shaping US national security policy, including 12 years on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Timestamps: [00:00] Intro [1:47] China’s Role in the Axis of Autocracy [03:22] Best Response from US and Allies? [05:23] The Interlocking Innovation Flywheels Effect [07:47] Made in China 2025 Plan: 10 Years Later [10:25] Why Does Chinese Dominance Matter? [12:39] Policy Prescriptions for the US [16:24] Lessons Learned from China Shock 1.0 and Preparing for 2.0 [21:09] Bipartisan Political Will on China Policy [24:06] Taiwan as a Vital Interest to the US [28:06] Assuaging Taiwanese Doubts in Congress [30:17] Taiwan’s Defense Spending Debate

On October 30, US President Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea. It was their first face-to-face meeting in 6 years. There was a lot at stake in this meeting for the US and China, as well as for the rest of the world. In my view, the outcome is best described as a fragile truce. The path forward for US-China relations remains uncertain – greater stability and predictability is possible, but not assured. Intense competition across several domains, especially technology, is likely. Today’s episode focuses on the Trump-Xi summit and the future of US-China relations, featuring Mr. Dennis Wilder. Dennis is a senior fellow for the Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues at Georgetown University, where he previously served as the managing director, and assistant professor of the practice in Asian studies in the School of Foreign Service. He served on President George W. Bush’s NSC first as director for China and then as senior director for Asian Affairs. He also had a distinguished career in the CIA, where he held many positions, the last of which was senior editor of the Presidential Daily Brief. Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [1:57] Trump-Xi Summit: A Win for China? [09:03] Fact Sheet Discrepancies [14:37] Trump Administration’s China Strategy [16:47] Achieving Chinese Exceptionalism [19:20] China’s Confidence and Potential Instability [21:26] Why No Taiwan Mention? [24:48] An Inflection Point for Greater Stability? [27:50] Indo-Pacific View of the US-China Relationship

From October 20-23, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party held its Fourth Plenum in Beijing, marking an important moment as the Party sets the direction for China’s development for the next five years. The session adopted recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, endorsing Xi Jinping’s goals of high-quality development, scientific and technological self-reliance, and strengthening national security in response to rising global instabilities. The Central Committee also announced the replacement of 11 members, the highest personnel turnover since 2017 amid an ongoing anti-corruption purge in the military. To discuss the plenum’s outcomes, we are joined by Jonathan Czin. Jonathan is a leading expert on Chinese politics and foreign policy. He holds the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and is a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. He previously led the intelligence community’s analysis of Chinese politics and policy making at the CIA and also spent two years as director for China at the National Security Council during the Biden administration. Timestamps: [00:00] Start [01:36] Why the Fourth Plenum Matters [03:37] Key Takeaways: Policy Continuity and Political Purges [05:07] Zhang Shengmin and Xi Jinping’s Military Ambitions [09:23] Signals and Adjustments in Economic Planning [11:56] Previewing the 15th Five-Year Plan [13:33] Xi Jinping’s Growing Confidence [17:42] Political Messaging and Choreography [20:21] Language in the Communique: “Strategic Resolve” [22:28] What to Expect from the Xi-Trump Summit [26:38] Is Beijing Worried the Summit Could Backfire?

China’s ties with Southeast Asia states are increasingly consequential for regional stability and global geopolitics. Over the past two decades, China has become the region’s largest trading partner and a major source of investment and infrastructure financing. At the same time, China growing military presence and aggressive behavior in the South China Sea have caused anxiety and have prompted a number of Southeast Asian nations to seek closer security ties with the United States and other partners. The Trump administration’s policies of imposing tariffs, reducing foreign assistance, and implementing stricter immigration regulations have begun to erode US influence across the region, further encouraging Southeast Asian countries to rely on each other and to diversify their relationships with external partners. To discuss Beijing’s evolving approach to Southeast Asia and the efficacy of its policies, we are joined on the podcast today by Dr. Chong Ja Ian. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore and a nonresident fellow at Carnegie China. Ian’s research focuses on Chinese politics, foreign policy, and US-China relations. Timestamps [00:00] Intro [01:50] China’s Tools and Objectives in SEA [03:02] Economic Relations with SEA [05:52] Success and Failures of Beijing’s SEA Strategy [07:47] Regional Media and Influence [11:40] SEA Views on China: Consensus and Discord [14:55] Regional Strategy Post-Trump [18:22] SEA Reactions to China Taking Taiwan by Force [22:40] Crisis Planning and How it Could Change [24:10] Long-Term Outlooks for China-SEA Relations

In mid-September, while many China watchers were focused on the Xiangshan Forum, the Chinese military’s annual high-level security and defense convening in Beijing, another major annual meeting was being held by the Ministry of Public Security in the Chinese city of Lianyungang (2-2-3). The Lianyungang Forum dates to 2015 but was upgraded and renamed the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum in 2022 following Xi Jinping’s launch of the Global Security Initiative. This year it was attended by 2,000 participants from 120 countries, regions and international organizations. The theme was “Shaping Global Public Security Together: United Action to Tackle Diverse Threats.” As Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong made clear in his opening speech, China is advancing an alternative to the western-led security order. Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens is a leading expert on Beijing’s push to reshape the global security order and promote China as a model and global security provider to developing countries. Sheena is an associate professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin where she directs UT’s Asia Policy Program and serves as editor-in-chief of the Texas National Security Review. She is also a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace, and a visiting associate professor of research in Indo-Pacific security at the China Landpower Studies Center of the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. Relevant to this episode’s discussion, Sheena recently published a co-authored report for the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace Carnegie titled “A New World Cop.” Timestamps: [00:00] Start [02:30] The Global Security Initiative and Xi Jinping’s Grand Strategy [05:22] Outcomes of the Global Public Security Cooperation Forum [08:50] What Do Participant Countries Gain? [12:23] How Do Recipient Countries Use Chinese Technologies? [16:12] Countries Rejecting China's Surveillance Technologies [21:49] China’s Rewriting of Global Norms [28:18] Potential Policy Responses to the GSI

Since 1951, when Tibet was formally annexed into the People’s Republic of China, Tibet has been a battleground between China’s efforts to assert control and the Tibetan people’s struggle to preserve their cultural and religious identity. This past August, Xi Jinping made a surprise visit to Tibet, his second since becoming China’s top leader in 2012. Less than two months earlier, the Dalai Lama, now 90 years old, announced that his office, not China, would choose his successor when he passes. A few months before that, the Dalai Lama revealed in a memoir that he would reincarnate outside of China. The PRC insists that the next incarnation – the 15th Dalai Lama – will be born inside PRC territory and approved by the Chinese government. What are Beijing’s interests in Tibet and how has Xi Jinping pursued them since coming to power? What is likely to occur after the Dalai Lama’s passing? I’m delighted to have as my guest today Tendor Dorjee. Tendor is an adjunct assistant professor of political science at Columbia University, a senior researcher at the Tibet Action Institute, and the inaugural Stephanie G Neuman Fellow at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. He recently co-authored an article in Foreign Affairs titled Beijing’s Dangerous Game in Tibet”. Timestamps [00:00] Start [02:08] Beijing’s Key Interests in Tibet [04:06] Xi Jinping’s Approach to Tibet [07:00] Internal and External Drivers of Tibet Policy [08:08] Xi’s Recent Visit to Tibet [11:34] Infrastructure Developments and Expansionism [15:27] Beijing’s Succession Plans and Tibetan Reactions to a Future Dalai Lama [20:27] Risk of Unrest and Crackdowns [25:43] Implications for Neighboring States

The United States and China are locked in a race for dominance in artificial intelligence, including its applications and diffusion. American and Chinese AI firms like OpenAI and DeepSeek respectively have captured global attention and major companies like Google and Microsoft have been actively investing in AI development. While the US currently boasts world-leading AI models, China is ahead in some areas of AI research and application. With the release of US and Chinese AI action plans in July, we may be on the cusp of a new phase in US-China AI competition. Why is AI so important for a country’s global influence? What are the strengths of China’s AI strategy? And what does China’s new AI action plan tell us about its AI ambitions? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Owen Daniels. Owen is the Associate Director of Analysis at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. His recently published article in Foreign Affairs co-authored with Hanna Dohmen -- titled China’s Overlooked AI Strategy -- provides insights into how Beijing is utilizing AI to gain global dominance and what the US can and should do to sustain and bolster its lead. Timestamps [00:00] Start [02:05] US Policy Risks to Chinese AI Leadership [05:28] Deepseek and Kimi’s Newest Models [07:54] US vs. China’s Approach to AI [10:42] Limitations to China’s AI Strategy [13:08] Using AI as a Soft Power Tool [16:10] AI Action Plans [19:34] Trump’s Approach to AI Competition [22:30] Can China Lead Global AI Governance? [25:10] Evolving US Policy for Open Models

The United States and China wrapped up the third round of high-level trade negotiations earlier this week. American and Chinese negotiators met in Stockholm on July 28 and 29. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the talks as constructive and wide ranging. He acknowledged that an extension of the 90-day tariff pause was discussed but said that the final decision was up to President Trump. As of today – August 1 – Trump has remained mum. The Chinese side’s readout was devoid of details, although China’s vice minister of commerce said that both countries would continue to push for an extension of the reciprocal tariffs and Chinese countermeasures. How should we assess the dynamics in the trade talks, including the balance of leverage between Washington and Beijing? And how might the trade negotiations shape the future of the US-China relationship? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Dr. Scott Kennedy. Scott is senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Timestamps [00:00] Start [02:06] Lessons Learned from Trump’s First Administration [05:20] Chinese Outlook on Future Economic Policy [09:28] Who’s Winning the Trade War? [14:30] China’s Reactions to Transshipment Provisions [18:18] Bessent's Rebalancing Plans [24:14] Challenges to Chinese Investment in the US [29:15] China's Trade Deal Goals

South Korea and China have a complex relationship characterized by economic interdependence, strategic competition, and regional security concerns. Navigating this delicate balance has been a defining challenge for every South Korean president. Newly elected President Lee Jae Myung has assumed power at a time of increasing US-China strategic competition as well as uncertain global supply chains and growing threat from North Korea. Could this new administration mark a shift in Seoul’s approach to Beijing? Or will President Lee maintain strategies similar to that of President Yoon? To discuss ROK-China relations, and President Lee’s approach to this intricate issue, we are joined on the podcast today by Dr. Ramon Pacheco-Pardo. He is a professor of international relations at King’s College London and the KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Center for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy in the Brussels School of Governance. He is also an adjunct fellow with the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the author of several books on the domestic affairs and foreign policy of South and North Korea. Timestamps [00:00] Start [01:44] “[P]ragmatic diplomacy centered on national interests” [05:06] State of Play for Sino-South Korean Relations [09:56] Balancing Between the United States and China [14:47] China Taking Advantage of US-ROK Frictions [19:03] Economic Interdependence as a Leverage [25:39] Xi Jinping Attending APEC South Korea 2025 [31:11] American Pressure on Allies to Protect Taiwan

On June 13th, Israel launched attacks on several military and nuclear facilities in Iran, marking the beginning of a 12-day war between the two countries. The United States followed with targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power and posing a threat to regional and global stability. China’s involvement in the conflict was limited to condemning the Israeli and US use of military force and calling for de-escalation. Beijing offered only rhetorical support for Tehran. To discuss what the Israel-Iran war reveals about China’s relationship with Iran, its evolving strategy in the Middle East, and the broader implications for US-China competition, we are joined by Yun Sun on the podcast today. Yun is a Senior Fellow, co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. Her recent piece in The Wire China entitled “How China Sees Iran’s Future” offers provides a nuanced take on Beijing’s calculus during and after the war. Timestamps [00:00] Start [01:34] China’s Diplomatic Strategy Toward the Middle East [05:00] A Limited Chinese Response and China’s Regional Role [08:19] Chinese Perceptions of Iran’s External Strategic Blunders [15:00] Trickling Chinese Investment into Iran [20:10] Chinese Concerns About a Nuclearized Iran [25:09] Implications of the Israel-Iran War for China’s Energy Security [32:04] Trump’s Response Shaping Chinese Views of the United States

In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. China has never condemned the invasion, and its government and media have carefully avoided using term “Ukraine War,” opting instead to refer to the war as the “Ukraine crisis,” the “Russia-Ukraine conflict,” or the “special military operation,” a term that echoes Moscow’s language. Beijing’s approach to the Ukraine War has included support for Russia, a commitment China’s own principles, including respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a professed desire for peace. This episode’s discussion will focus on China’s evolving posture toward the war and China’s relationship with Ukraine. Joining the podcast this episode is Dr. Vita Golod, who is a Junior Research Fellow at the A. Yu Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy Sciences of Ukraine, and a Visiting Adjunct Instructor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.She is also the co-founder of the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China and a board member of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists. Timestamps [00:00] Start [01:35] China’s Relationship with Ukraine Prior to Russia’s Invasion [05:06] President Zelenskyy’s Accusations Against China [08:20] Contemporary Ukrainian Perceptions of Relations with China [12:14] Ukrainian Perceptions of Sino-Russian Relations [16:25] China as a Mediator and Peacemaker [19:06] China’s Interests in the Outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian War [21:21] What concrete steps could China take to facilitate peace? [23:14] China’s Role in the Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine [28:08] The Future of Sino-Ukrainian Relations

On April 22, 2025, gunmen in the town of Pahalgam, located in the disputed region of Kashmir, killed 26 people—mostly Indian tourists. A four-day military clash between India and Pakistan ensued, bringing both countries to the brink of a full-blown war, before a ceasefire was reached on May 10, 2025. During the India-Pakistan clashes, Beijing urged both sides to deescalate and called for a “political settlement through peaceful means.” But China did not play a neutral role in the conflict. Consistent with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s purported statement to his Pakistani counterpart that “China fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests,” China reportedly provided intelligence, satellite equipment, and other forms of support to Pakistan before and during the clashes. To analyze China’s role in the conflict, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Andrew Small. Andrew is a senior transatlantic fellow with GMF’s Indo-Pacific program, and author of two books on China, including “The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics,” which is now ten years old, but remains an insightful and relevant study. Timestamps [00:00] Start [01:46] China’s Diplomatic Response to the India-Pakistan Clashes [05:58] Beijing’s Offer of Playing a “Constructive Role” [10:56] A Testing Ground for Chinese Weaponry and Equipment [14:03] China’s Cautious Approach to Sino-Indian Relations [18:10] Military Support and the Sino-Pakistan Relationship [23:44] Implications for Chinese Arms Exports [26:27] Indian and Pakistani Assessments of Chinese Involvement [30:06] Influence of US-China Rivalry on India-Pakistan Relations

The United States and China reached a 90-day truce in the trade war when their representatives met in Geneva in early May. Both sides agreed to temporarily roll back tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers. President Trump announced that a “total reset” in US-China relations had been achieved. Beyond the hyperbole, the two sides agreed to establish a mechanism on economics and trade and launch negotiations to address trade imbalances and other problems. Whether a deal is reached, what it might look like, and what it might include, remains to be seen. The future trajectory of US-China relations, overall, is still unclear. This episode highlights a Chinese perspective on the US-China bilateral relationship, including on the recent trade talks and the factors that will influence US-China relations going forward. Sun Chenghao, a fellow and head of the U.S.-Europe program at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS), and council member of the Chinese Association of American Studies joins host Bonnie Glaser for this episode. Timestamps [00:00] Start [01:39] What does Trump want from China? [04:29] What view does Dr. Sun hold? [05:00] Assessing the US-China Geneva Talks [09:21] Feasibility of a Broad US-China Trade Deal [13:23] Implications of Trump’s “Unification” Comment [16:46] Importance of the Strategic Channel [20:47] Declining America, Rising China [23:27] Shift in US Policy Toward Alliances [27:49] The Future of US-China Relations

Critical minerals are required for the manufacturing of electronics, aerospace equipment, medical devices, and renewable energy technologies, making them essential for a country’s economic and national security. These materials have been at the center of China’s domestic and foreign policy for many decades, and China’s ability to integrate internal industrial policies with foreign trade and investment policies has allowed them to gain dominance in the market. Meanwhile, the US has lagged behind China in terms of both access to and processing technology of critical minerals. The country has been heavily dependent on China for its critical minerals and struggles to find an alternative supplier. China’s announcement to impose export restrictions on seven rare earth elements on April 4th has opened many conversations surrounding critical minerals, especially regarding the US and its supply chain vulnerabilities. What has China done to achieve their global dominance in the critical minerals sector, and what can the US do to address the overdependence issue they are facing today? To answer these questions and more, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Gracelin Baskaran, the director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She is a mining economist whose area of expertise is critical minerals and trade. Timestamps [00:00] Start [02:13] US Dependencies on Rare Earths and Critical Minerals [03:51] Sourcing from Latin America, Africa, and Asia [06:28] Environmental Harm from Mining and Processing [08:11] Deliberate Suppression of the Price of Rare Earths in the Market [11:06] Chinese Exports Restrictions on Seven Rare Earth Elements [14:08] US Administrations’ Approaches to Critical Minerals Vulnerability [20:02] 2010 Fishing Boat Accident and Japan’s Response [24:00] What might China do moving forward? [27:42] Timeframe for the US to Catch Up to China

This episode of the China Global podcast discusses evolving disputes between China and South Korea, specifically regarding their unresolved maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea. There is a long history of fishing disputes between the two countries in the Provisional Measures Zone (or PMZ) of the Yellow Sea, which is where their exclusive economic zones overlap. Although China and South Korea have engaged in negotiations over the years, they have yet to come to an agreement on their boundaries in the Yellow Sea. Taking advantage of the persisting disagreement on delimitation of maritime borders, China has employed gray zone tactics in the Yellow Sea to expand its territorial presence in the region. In the most recent dispute, China installed a new steel structure in the PMZ, causing a maritime standoff between Chinese and Korean coast guards. To discuss recent developments in the Yellow Sea and China’s broader gray zone tactics in the maritime realm, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Ray Powell, the Director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation. Ray is also the co-host of the Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific podcast, and a 35-year veteran of the US Air Force. Timestamps [00:00] Start [01:43] Strategic Significance of the Yellow Sea [03:12] Expanding Chinese Control in the Region [04:08] Chinese Maritime Installations [05:20] Are these installations found in other regions? [06:00] Gray Zone Tactics in the South China Sea [08:20] Maritime Militia Activity in the Yellow Sea [09:02] 2001 Korea-China Fisheries Agreement [10:34] Testing the Waters with South Korea [12:09] Navigating South Korean Policy Dilemmas [13:48] Rehabilitating China’s Imagine in Korea [15:14] Environmental Issues in Disputed Waters [17:18] Countering Chinese Activities in the Yellow Sea [19:40] SeaLight Tracking and Deciphering Chinese Actions

As China’s military capabilities expand, US-China frictions intensify, and regional tensions increase, concern is on the rise that a potential crisis, either accidental or deliberate, could take place that could spiral out of control. If a crisis arises with China, leaders may want to de-escalate and prevent a wider conflict. To do so, they will need to understand how China thinks about crisis management and escalation. The guest for this episode has dug into the writings of PLA strategists and authoritative PRC sources as well as Western scholarship to assess how China views military escalation and how the US and other countries can accurately predict and interpret PRC signal in crisis scenarios. Lyle Morris is a Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security at the Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute. His recently published paper is titled “China’s Views on Escalation and Crisis Management and Implications for the United States.” Timestamps [00:00] Start [01:37] Methodology and Authoritative Chinese Sources [04:17] PLA Theories and Concepts of Managing Escalation [06:00] Controlling All Facets of Military Escalation [10:28] Doctrine of Seizing the Initiative [15:21] First Use of Force and a Reluctance to Use Force [19:37] American and Chinese Considerations of Misperception [25:46] Utility of US-China Tabletop Exercises [28:33] Predicting a Taiwan Contingency