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Market Watch with Tom Waitt-logo

Market Watch with Tom Waitt

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The Market Watch podcast and blog provide you with the benefit of my 30+ years experience as a stock market trader.

The Market Watch podcast and blog provide you with the benefit of my 30+ years experience as a stock market trader.
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Location:

United States

Description:

The Market Watch podcast and blog provide you with the benefit of my 30+ years experience as a stock market trader.

Language:

English


Episodes

ECONOMY SHANGHAIED

10/10/2012
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October_10th_2012.mp3 Economy Shanghaied Global economic activity is the key to shift pessimistic forecasts to a more optimistic outlook. Shanghai Composite Index (Click For Larger Picture) The European crisis has toned down but is a long way from producing impressive economic results for some time. The U.S. economy is stuck in a political shoot out that will drag out to the last second of the Presidential election and whoever wins is still likely to have little improvement for the balance...

Duration: 00:01:55


DEBATABLE OUTCOME

10/3/2012
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October_3rd_2012.mp3 Debatable Outcome U.S. Presidential debates begin tonight, television news reporters have pulled out all the same old supposed zingers from past U.S. presidential debates to warm up the audience for the imminent round of face-offs and gaffes. General Election:Romney vs. Obama (Click For Larger Picture) With 24 hour round the clock media reports highlighting differences between Republicans and Democrats often at polar opposites. The diverse polar split in the U.S....

Duration: 00:01:54


EMOTIONS

9/26/2012
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September_26th_2012.mp3 Emotions Despite recent strength in equities the "Mood" has been negative and most funds have extremely high cash reserves. MarketEmotion Cycle (Click For Larger Picture) Markets have always moved on emotion, which has caused extreme levels both up and down. Usually FEAR GREED drives the market but over the last 3 years it has been desperation, panic, despondency, depression, disgust and doubt. Pundits suggest we have turned generations of investors away with lack...

Duration: 00:01:59


HOME SWEET HOME

9/19/2012
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September_19th_2012.mp3 HomeSweet Home A root cause of the economic upheaval was the housing market. Today both new housing starts and existing home sales were released for August with impressive results. HousingStarts (Click For Larger Picture) Home sales have recovered after being a root cause of economic collapse. Existing home sales rose strongly for a second straight month, up 7.8 percent in August to an annual unit rate of 4.82 million. This is the largest monthly percentage gain...

Duration: 00:02:03


CHINA ENTERS THE 21ST CENTURY

9/12/2012
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September_12th_2012.mp3 China Enters the 21stCentury Improvement in European and North American equity markets in the last few weeks is encouraging. The naysayers have now shifted their pessimism toward China. Total Electricity Consumption (Click For Larger Picture) Industrial Production (Click For Larger Picture) Despite positive news in Europe and better than expected U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States which rose 1.7% in the second quarter of 2012 backing up a series...

Duration: 00:02:12


ECONOMIC GROWTH

8/29/2012
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August_29th_2012.mp3 Economic Growth Pessimism runs rampant despite improving economic data. U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2012 stronger than earlier report of 1.5%. U.S.GDPGrowth Rate (Click For Larger Picture) Despite an improving U.S. job and housing markets, consumer confidence fell to the lowest level it's been in several months. The results are the latest swing in the index, which has been on a rollercoaster....

Duration: 00:02:09


A GOOD THING

8/24/2012
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August_24th_2012.mp3 A Good Thing Commodity prices have been steadily rising over the last two months. Is this a good thing, or bad? CRBIndex (Click For Larger Picture) Rising commodity prices have the media and market pundits warning of soaring inflation. Many analysts warn that the current easy money policy by global central banks will devalue currency and push commodities including food stock to levels unaffordable by many already unemployed. However bleak things seem, there is often...

Duration: 00:02:00


GOLD CONSOLIDATION

8/15/2012
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August_15th_2012.mp3 Gold Consolidation What goes up goes up must come down. I will be back after these messages with a discussion. Gold (Click For Larger Picture) Media and market participants often get caught up in the mood of the moment and excite emotions to a fever pitch. Markets feed on these emotions and take things to a euphoric level. Media sensationalizes the movement by finding reinforcing reasons for even higher levels. Infomercials bolster the fever and what goes up goes up...

Duration: 00:01:44


A POSITIVE NEGATIVE

8/8/2012
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August_8th_2012.mp3 A PositiveNegative Market sentiment is at bearish extremes. Media reports continue to shock investors with re-takes of old news. European woes are of great concern but the markets seem to have discounted with recent strength in equities. Market Sentiment (Click For Larger Picture) Investor sentiment indicators are at near panic levels. Despite this the SP 500 index closed above 1400 yesterday and is set to test this years high of 1422.38. It has been four years since we...

Duration: 00:02:10


HIGH ROAD, LOW ROAD

7/11/2012
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July_11th_2012(1).mp3 High Road, LowRoad The SP 500 stock index has doubled from the lows set in 2009. Fear and bearish forecasts still surrounded equity markets. We are currently within 2% of 2011 highs high and 5.6% off our 2012 high. SP500 Index (Click For Larger Picture) European woes and Global debt concerns, continue to plaque equity markets. News media and many market pundits remain negative. Pessimism is rampant, the fiscal cliff, the U.S. debt ceiling, Chinese accounting, Russian...

Duration: 00:02:15


SHIFTING EMOTIONS

7/4/2012
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July_4th_2012.mp3 Shifting Emotions Pessimism was at a peak before Friday's jump in stock prices. Most funds have the lowest equity component in 15 years. Is market emotion turning positive? MarketEmotion Cycle (Click For Larger Picture) Despite media focus on the European Union and rising tensions over Iranian nuclear development along with Syrian suppression of another Arab spring. A shift in Market Emotion is digging out from near panic and despondency. Markets have always moved on...

Duration: 00:02:05


NATURAL GAS

6/27/2012
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June_27th_2012.mp3 Natural Gas In the last 2 months despite media reports of a bankrupt Greece and the suggested complete melt down of the euro zone along with rising tensions over Iranian nuclear development and Syrian suppression of another Arab spring, something interesting happened. Natural Gas (Click For Larger Picture) Markets have always moved on emotions, usually FEAR GREED, but over the last 3 years it has been desperation, panic, despondency, depression, disgust and doubt. Many...

Duration: 00:02:07


BOTTOM IN RATES

6/20/2012
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June_20th_2012.mp3 Bottom In Rates Interest Rates on 10 year U.S. T-Notes have likely seen the lows hitting 1.44% on June 1st all rates could start to rise including mortgage rates. U.S. 10-year T-Note (Click For Larger Picture) Ten year U.S. treasuries have been as high as 2.4% in March 2012 and as low as 1.44% this month. These rates could rise to 2% shortly and as high as 4.3% next year. It is hard to believe at this level but normal 10 year interest rates historically are 7%. If rates...

Duration: 00:02:25


CURRENCY VALUATION

6/13/2012
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June_13th_2012.mp3 Currency Valuation Currency levels matter, as Canadians we often value and compare products in Canadian dollars and U.S. dollars. CADUSD (Click For Larger Picture) In the last 5 years we have seen the Canadian against the U.S. dollar trade as high as 1.1038 in November 2007 and as low as .7656 in March 2009. To realize the absolute value of currency exchange rates consider this; a $25,000 U.S. car; the post war low on the Canadian dollar was .6179 in 2002 and reached a...

Duration: 00:02:22


GAINING SUPPORT

6/6/2012
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June_6th_2012.mp3 GainingSupport A month ago U.S. stocks were at a 3 year high, turn on a news report yesterday and media reports are disusing a crash. Dow Jones Industrial Average (Click For Larger Picture) Three years ago March 6th 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 6,469 a month ago we hit 13,338.66 more than double. The advance had corrections along the way 14.6% in the spring of 2010, and 19.2% in the summer of 2011. As discussed in the March 7th radio show a consolidation...

Duration: 00:02:15


INFLATION?

5/30/2012
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May_30th_2012.mp3 Inflation? Inflation or Deflation; too many dollars chasing too few goods or too many goods with too few dollars. Inflation Rate by Country (Click For Larger Picture) There is no shortage of dollars in the system with Global liquidity near all time highs. Note India's inflation rate of 7.23% leads the pack by double as that country is growing at over 7%; China is growing at over 8% but reports inflation of 3.4%. Most countries are in the 2 to 3% level in growth and...

Duration: 00:02:03


BULLISH/BEARISH SENTIMENT

5/23/2012
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May_23rd_2012.mp3 Bullish/Bearish Sentiment Investors are at bearish extremes. Media reports of a bankrupt Greece and the possibility of their withdrawal from the Euro, a failed new issue of Facebook and the pending "Fiscal Cliff" capping off concerns as U.S. politicians continue to dig in along party lines. Contrarian Indicators:Bearish Small Investors (Click For Larger Picture) Markets move on emotions, usually FEAR GREED, but lately it has been desperation, panic, despondency, depression,...

Duration: 00:01:56


GLOBAL MONEY SUPPLY

5/16/2012
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May_16th_2012.mp3 Global MoneySupply Uncertainty rules, media moguls seize the opportunity to stress the worst case scenarios; Greece withdrawing from the Euro, falling off a Fiscal Cliff, China slowdown, plunging commodity prices. Global MoneySupply (Click For Larger Picture) Despite news reports there is solid growth and earnings coming out of recent data releases in the U.S. Pessimistic attitudes prevail influenced by media sensationalizing the negatives. Confidence is key, market...

Duration: 00:02:04


GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

5/9/2012
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May_9th_2012.mp3 Global Unemployment Rates Europessimism has once again seized Global markets. Austerity measures causing even higher unemployment in southern European nations. Unemployment rates adjusted to U.S. concepts, 20 countires, seasonally adjusted, October 2010 - March 2012 (Click For Larger Picture) Elections in Greece and France have re-focused concerns on the forced contagion of austerity measures. Fear of inflation has lessened with gold falling below $1600. The economy and...

Duration: 00:01:44


CHINA GROWTH

5/2/2012
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May_2nd_2012.mp3 China Growth Concerns over a slowdown in Chinese economic growth are misplaced. The growth is amazing and is likely to prevent a Global recession. ChinaGDP (Click For Larger Picture) Chinese GDP is currently $7.3 Trillion while the U.S. GDP level is $15.1 Trillion. Chinese GDP growth is about 8% currently the U.S. is roughly 2%. The real eye opener comes when one considers levels 5 years ago Chinese GDP was $3.28 Trillion and U.S. GDP $13.81 trillion. Chinese GDP has more...

Duration: 00:02:16

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