Top Traders Unplugged

What happens when confidence fades and power becomes concentrated in fewer hands? Together with Peter Atwater we explore a world dividing along lines of control and vulnerability. From geopolitical conflict and energy dominance to rising inequality and generational pressure, they describe a system under strain. The discussion connects investor behavior, policymaking, and social dynamics through a single lens: confidence. As those at the top grow more assertive and those at the bottom feel increasingly powerless, tensions build in ways that history suggests rarely resolve smoothly. This is an important and timely conversation about imbalance, reaction, and what may come next. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Peter on X. Episode TimeStamps: 01:13 - Introduction and framing the confidence discussion 02:53 - The K shaped world and rising vulnerability 04:43 - Behavior at the top vs nihilism at the bottom 06:48 - Confidence and policymaker decision making 09:27 - From hubris to desperation in global systems 12:23 - Iran, energy, and geopolitical motives 17:05 - Leadership confidence and timing of conflict 19:09 - Affordability crisis and consumer pressure 22:43 - War priorities vs economic priorities 25:53 - Control, drafts, and growing tension 29:11 - Authoritarian drift and system constraints 33:51 - Speed of crises in a connected world 39:22 - Overconfidence and blindness to risk 48:15 - Powerlessness as the trigger for change Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

Markets often appear logical in hindsight, yet behave unpredictably in real time. In this episode, Niels and Yoav explore how recent events, from geopolitical shocks to shifting narratives, reveal the limits of traditional explanations. They discuss why assets like gold and bonds no longer react as expected, how flows and positioning can dominate price action, and why dispersion across managers increases during periods of stress. The conversation also examines the role of machine learning, the impact of volatility on execution, and the challenges of managing risk in fast moving markets. At its core, this is about navigating uncertainty when structure and narrative begin to diverge. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the series 01:19 - What is on the radar: markets and recent developments 01:19 - The EM algorithm and its relevance to machine learning 04:12 - Election narratives and unpredictability in real world outcomes 06:51 - Gold, war, and why markets react unexpectedly 09:07 - Inflation narrative vs risk off reality 14:13 - Bond equity correlation breaking down 17:29 - Fixed income volatility and regime uncertainty 24:58 - Oil curve dynamics and supply constraints 27:39 - Risk management differences between discretionary and systematic 37:23 - Market flows, positioning, and forced liquidations 41:30 - Excess volatility and what really drives markets 49:36 - Trend vs value vs noise traders explained 56:34 - Diversification, capacity, and portfolio construction Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

In today’s episode we talk to Craig Mundie, formerly the Chief Technical Officer at Microsoft and a leading advocate for responsible development of artificial intelligence. He joins Kevin Coldiron to discuss his book, Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit co-authored with Eric Schmidt and Henry Kissinger. Mundie believes the timeline for AI’s impact on the economy is extremely compressed, with dramatic breakthroughs in energy and work happening in the next few years. We also discuss the long-term implications of AI-generated knowledge and solutions that will likely be beyond our understanding. What questions should we ask and what preparations should we make - both individually and collectively as citizens - to prepare this future? ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Craig on LinkedIn and read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:06 - AI as a collaborator and the end of traditional human evolution 01:41 - Introduction to the Ideas Lab series and Craig Mundie 03:48 - How the book Genesis came together 09:52 - AI vs human learning and the rise of machine polymaths 17:40 - When machines discover things humans cannot understand 20:36 - The future of the scientific method in an AI-driven world 25:48 - From tools to a new species: redefining our relationship with AI 27:24 - Why AI adoption may outpace institutions and society 33:26 - Energy, infrastructure, and global competition in AI 40:55 - Wealth, labor, and the economic impact of abundant intelligence 50:51 - Alignment, control, and the limits of human oversight 58:25 - The ultimate question: do humans evolve or merge with AI Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

Markets have shifted quickly in 2026, forcing systematic investors to reassess what is signal and what is noise. In this episode, Niels and Nick explore recent drawdowns, volatility in commodities, and how geopolitical shocks ripple through quantitative strategies. They unpack the role of QIS, the evolving structure of energy markets, and why some trends are holding while others fade. The conversation also challenges common assumptions about diversification, model design, and the growing influence of options markets. Rather than reacting to headlines, this episode focuses on how systematic investors interpret changing conditions and adapt without abandoning discipline. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:01 - Introduction to systematic investing and current market backdrop 01:03 - 2026 sentiment shifts from optimism to uncertainty 03:04 - Commodity curve trades and recent QIS drawdowns 08:34 - Why gas and oil behave very differently in markets 11:17 - Media narratives vs actual CTA performance 14:03 - Rising stagflation concerns and interest rate volatility 18:08 - Trend following performance and positioning update 27:06 - Do options markets impact trend following models 38:28 - Core vs broad market universes in trend strategies 48:46 - Can AI reshape systematic research workflows 55:23 - Quant equity resurgence and lessons from past drawdowns 01:02:19 - Macro uncertainty and what drives trends going forward Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Dan Mikulskis, CIO of People’s Partnership, about the evolution of large pension funds and what it means to think like an asset owner. Managing over £40 billion for millions of members, Dan explains how scale changes the way portfolios are constructed, managers are selected, and partnerships are built. The conversation explores the balance between passive and active strategies, diversification beyond equities, and the growing role of private markets. Dan also shares insights on governance, investment philosophy, and why humility is essential when making asset allocation decisions in complex global markets. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Dan on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 01:33 - Introduction to the global macro series 02:18 - Introducing Dan Mikulskis and his background 03:38 - From actuarial science to investment consulting 05:45 - The history and growth of People’s Partnership 08:18 - Auto-enrolment and the rise of large UK pension schemes 11:12 - What it means to operate as an asset owner 13:24 - Building the investment team and ownership model 18:34 - Scale advantages in manager relationships and partnerships 23:24 - How large asset owners select external managers 28:58 - Balancing core partnerships and specialist managers 34:25 - Macro insights and quarterly investment forums 37:34 - Portfolio construction and diversified growth strategies 43:19 - Concentration risk and global equity allocations 50:44 - Factor investing and style diversification 53:30 - The role of hedge funds and alternative strategies 56:08 - Total portfolio approach in pension investing 58:56 - Measuring performance and evaluating investment teams 01:03:18 - Career advice for future CIOs Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

What if trends in financial markets are not anomalies, but the natural consequence of how markets function? In this episode, Niels and Richard explore the structural foundations of trend following. Drawing on research spanning 68 futures markets across four decades, Richard explains why markets exhibit persistent trends, fat-tailed returns, and volatility clustering. The discussion moves from oil market shocks to deeper questions about feedback loops, participant behavior, and regime shifts in financial markets. The conclusion is striking: trend following does not rely on fragile patterns. It aligns with fundamental structural properties embedded in how markets actually evolve. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 02:08 - Oil market shock and the structural setup behind the spike 06:10 - Why calm markets can hide explosive potential 11:47 - How oil shocks ripple through inflation and the global economy 15:29 - Why trend followers focus on process, not predictions 22:15 - A changing regime that may favor trend following 24:43 - The research behind The Fractals of Finance 25:25 - Market memory and the meaning of the Hurst exponent 31:22 - Why trends are structural rather than random patterns 36:25 - Fat tails and why extreme market moves are far more common than expected 41:12 - Divergent vs convergent market participants 45:29 - The hidden risks in traditional volatility targeting 49:33 - Phase transitions and regime shifts in markets 55:33 - Why trend following aligns with market structure 59:02 - Oil shocks, inflation risks, and the next potential market regime Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Aoifinn Devitt about what it really means to build resilient portfolios in a world of shifting regimes and competing narratives. Drawing on experience across pensions, hedge fund advisory, and private wealth, Aoifinn reflects on how institutional lessons translate to individual investors. The conversation explores the role of diversification, the evolving case for private markets, and the limitations of labels such as hedge funds, factors, or alternative assets. Along the way, they discuss the behavioral traps that influence allocators, the challenges of manager selection, and why outcome based investing may offer a clearer framework for navigating uncertain markets. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Aoifinn on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:16 - Introducing Aoifinn Devitt and her background 03:14 - From corporate law to a career in finance 05:16 - Institutional vs private wealth portfolio construction 09:47 - How macro regimes influence asset allocation 12:53 - Rethinking the endowment model and private markets 15:32 - Private credit and diversification challenges 18:13 - Total portfolio approach vs traditional allocation 21:27 - Bonds, equities, and changing correlations 27:52 - Concentration risk and the dominance of mega cap stocks 37:33 - The evolving role of hedge funds in portfolios 42:35 - Gold, commodities, and inflation protection 46:23 - Behavioral biases and long term market cycles 57:35 - Advice for young professionals entering finance Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

Markets can shift direction faster than the narratives used to explain them. In this episode, Niels and Alan unpack the sharp reversal in bond markets, the geopolitical tensions shaping energy prices, and the role of options flows in keeping equity indices pinned despite rising uncertainty beneath the surface. The conversation moves through recent hedge fund industry discussions in Miami, renewed interest in portable alpha and the total portfolio approach, and the growing influence of AI on economic thinking and policy debates. Along the way, they revisit the core role of trend following in portfolios, explaining why its value often appears precisely when traditional allocations struggle most. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 01:38 – Bond market reversal and shifting macro narratives 03:29 – Options flows and the pinning of equity indices 10:13 – AlphaQuest closure and pressures in short term trading strategies 15:14 – Crisis alpha and how trend differs from a 60/40 portfolio 23:18 – Recent CTA performance and trend opportunities across markets 25:23 – Key takeaways from the Miami hedge fund conference 37:48 – AI, productivity, and the policy dilemma for the Fed 46:40 – Political dynamics behind the potential Fed leadership shift 50:13 – Trend following as the “midfield player” in portfolios 58:08 – Building a portfolio of CTAs and the challenge of tracking indices 01:07:20 – Is CTA beta stable enough to benchmark? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

Cem Karsan sits down with Neil Howe to examine what a true regime shift means for markets and society. Howe argues that we are deep into a Fourth Turning, a generational winter that historically brings institutional fracture, geopolitical strain, and inflation that reshapes debts, assets, and political power. Cem ties that arc to today’s realities: the exhaustion of the 40 year tailwind from falling rates, record valuations meeting refinancing risk, and the uncomfortable truth that 60/40 has failed for long stretches before. They explore the growing divide between capital and labor, the pivot from globalization to industrial policy, and the rising appeal of commodities, cash, and convex hedges in a world where outcomes are less linear. Howe also details how his Fourth Turning ETF reflects that view, pairing thematic equities with real assets and disciplined tail protection. This is a conversation about preparing, not predicting, when history starts to rhyme a little louder. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:28 - Introducing Neil Howe and why this conversation matters now 03:37 - What the Fourth Turning is and how the cycle works 10:26 - “The Fourth Turning Is Here” and the practical question: what do we do? 16:42 - Rates, inequality, and why the last 40 years may not repeat 20:17 - Inflation as a crisis tool, not a forecasting error 26:43 - Options, convexity, and non-linear portfolios in regime change 33:31 - The surge into “non-correlated” assets and what it signals 39:39 - Market closures, devaluation, and the limits of buy-the-dip history 45:28 - Commodities as a missing portfolio leg and the volatility debate 48:12 - Howe’s ETF framework: themes, commodities, cash, and tail hedges 52:43 - Timing the crisis, geopolitics, and the authoritarianism question Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

In this episode, Alan Dunne and Cem Karsan explore a market that appears calm on the surface yet increasingly unstable underneath. As indices move sideways, they discuss how options flows and structured products are reshaping market behavior, driving rotation rather than direction. From the weakening of former leaders to the rise of defensives, the conversation turns to what these shifts may signal about a broader topping process. They also examine the growing influence of AI narratives, political incentives, and global tensions, not as isolated shocks but as forces building pressure within the system. The result is a discussion about how markets evolve when structure, policy, and sentiment begin to move out of sync. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Cem on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 Intro to the Systematic Investor Series 00:23 Performance check: CTAs strong, trend tailwinds 03:13 Range-bound indices, but big dispersion and rotation 03:45 Why options pin the index: dealer flows and vol compression 05:42 Dispersion mechanics: idiosyncratic risk, falling correlation 07:32 Rotation as a topping process: leaders fade, defensives rise 09:54 OPEX and quarterly expiries: why timing windows matter 11:56 The March support effect, then weaker flows into April 17:02 AI narrative shock: anxiety, backlash, and policy consequences 22:32 Populism versus deflation stories: why inflation returns 32:43 Gold outlook: secular bull, but expect two-sided volatility 45:45 Rates as “tectonic plates”: vol compressed now, release later 50:23 Midterms, incentives, and the fight for control 57:42 Liquidity loop: markets stop rising, collateral stops expanding Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer

In today’s episode we talk to Mark Roberts, founder of Off Wall Street, a legendary provider of short selling research to hedge funds. Seven months before Enron became the biggest bankruptcy in US corporate history, Off Wall Street published a report recommending the shares be sold. The success of this call made Mark and Off Wall Street synonymous with original and rigorous research. We talk to Mark about his unusual personal background, how being a hippie in Berkeley in the 1960s prepared him for identifying overvalued companies two decades later. He explains why questionable accounting and high valuations are the “symptoms, not the disease” and compares today’s markets with those of the Dotcom era. His new book, Off Wall Street How To Win At Short Selling By Betting Against The Crowd was just released in February 2026. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Mark on LinkedIn and read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 01:41 - Introducing Mark Roberts, Off Wall Street, Enron, and the book 03:35 - An unconventional path: French literature, skepticism, and early life choices 07:40 - The first “short sale”: selling a failing steel business and learning risk firsthand 11:10...

Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold’s steady rise and a surprising divergence between US and emerging market inflation, the conversation centers on rotation, uncertainty, and shifting assumptions about safety. They explore whether Treasuries still anchor portfolios the way they once did, how fiscal pressures could reshape monetary policy, and why regime thinking matters for systematic investors. Beneath it all is a reminder that correlations change, narratives evolve, and adaptability remains the most durable edge in uncertain markets. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Mark on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Introduction & market check-in 02:52 – February performance: CTAs, trend following & commodities 04:53 – Peak bubble? AI, metals & speculative excess 07:10 – Gold demand, central banks & safe-haven flows 10:40 – The AI narrative shift & tech repricing 13:22 – Global rotation: US vs Europe & emerging markets 15:22 – EM inflation now lower than US — why it matters 21:48 – Why macro still matters (regime thinking vs stock picking) 31:49 – Fiscal vs monetary dominance explained 41:59 – $700B in Treasury issuance — scale of the debt...

The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow grind reshaping productivity, debt, currencies, and political stability. From dollar regime risk to state capitalism, from market concentration to commodity repricing, the discussion moves beyond headlines to structural fault lines. Is gold signaling debasement? Can the U.S. sustain its debt path? Does AI lift productivity or hollow it out? Rather than predict collapse, Jakobsen outlines a drawn-out transition where capital reallocates, volatility hides beneath the surface, and political systems are tested long before markets finally react. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Steen on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 01:38 - Introducing Steen Jakobsen 03:45 - From trading floors to outrageous predictions 06:32 - Dollar hedging and regime shift signals 08:06 - Davos as a macro...

Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a deeper debate about model design, short versus long horizon signals, and whether innovation in liquid alternatives serves investors or sales desks. From AI disruption to product engineering and allocator behavior, this episode explores where systematic strategies truly create value and where structural incentives distort outcomes. In a changing macro regime, clarity of purpose may matter more than ever. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introducing the Systematic Investor series 01:17 - AI disruption and systematic investing 06:52 - The shifting perception of US risk 09:21 - Winter Olympics and market metaphors 12:59 - Hedge funds versus private equity 19:23 - 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation 22:17 - Why CTAs did not fully capture gold 29:48 - Short term versus long term trend models 35:27 - Letting risk run versus investor palatability 44:43 - The problem with liquid alternatives 51:21 - Product design versus fiduciary duty 59:06 - QIS, innovation and investor sophistication 01:04:41 - Model risk and the myth of risk premia 01:10:51 - Hopes for a trending year ahead Copyright © 2025 – CMC

A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capital becomes a policy tool. The conversation moves from China’s exported deflation to Europe’s structural constraints, then into America’s strategy of attracting investment with tariff leverage. Beneath it all sits a political question: what happens if the governing coalition fractures ahead of the midterms. Harnett argues that is the moment the dollar turns from anchor to risk. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Ian on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - The gray swan: political fracture and the point to sell the dollar 00:37 - Show intro and risk disclaimer 01:33 - Setting the frame: global macro, geopolitics, and regime change 04:34 - The new regime: inflation risk and the stock-bond relationship breaking 06:39 - Structural inflation drivers: deglobalization, trade weaponization, China’s deflation export 09:14 - Capital as a battleground: surcharges, controls, and Europe’s capital markets problem 12:02 - Europe’s catalyst problem: why it may take a crisis to build a true safe asset 14:44 - America’s playbook: inbound capital, tariff bargaining, and “neo-royalism” 18:32...

Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals 04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework 10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction 12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets 16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver’s collapse 22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals 24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions 31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making 34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update 37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL 41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability 45:13 - MAN Group paper...

Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge funds, and applied AI, Ben explains why stories, not data, increasingly drive outcomes in modern markets. The conversation spans unstructured data, inference, common knowledge, and the mechanics of narrative momentum. Together, they examine consumer expectations, inflation silence, geopolitical signaling, and the slow shift away from US dominance. What emerges is a framework for understanding markets as reflexive systems, where perception often matters more than reality. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to U Got Options and the trading floor setting 02:18 - Ben Hunt’s background and Epsilon Theory origins 04:11 - Markets as the ultimate multiplayer game 06:15 - Inference, unstructured data, and narrative analysis 08:18 - Why sentiment and word counts miss the real signal 11:16 - Mapping meaning and truthy stories 15:00 - LLMs as operating systems, not oracles 18:01 - Giving money back and when models stop working 21:16 - Applying narrative tools beyond markets 24:10 - Consumer weakness versus bullish expectations 30:43 - Inflation, recession, and why markets do not care 33:29 - Dormant stories and volatility discovery 34:26 -

Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification across markets and speeds matters more than ever. Drawing on new research, they examine dispersion within the CTA universe, the limits of replication, and how volatility targeting quietly determines outcomes. From precious metals to currencies, from crisis alpha to geopolitical risk, this episode offers a grounded look at why trend following thrives during disruption and why regime change remains its natural habitat. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 00:39 - Weather disruptions and market perspective 02:31 - Precious metals and extreme commodity moves 04:28 - Gold, central banks, and monetary regime shifts 07:43 - Replication versus full CTA diversification 09:47 - Liquidity differences across metals 12:03 - Metals leading trend performance in 2026 15:01 - Multi-sector trends and diversification benefits 20:13 - Media attention and the return of trend following 23:29 - Research insights on speed and dispersion 31:44 - Trend speed and timing tradeoffs 40:59 - Market concentration and narrow universes 43:19 - Volatility estimation as a hidden...

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Dario on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and context 02:25 - Global uncertainty and growth expectations 05:00 - The K-shaped economy under scrutiny 08:12 - Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects 11:07 - Fed independence and political pressure 17:06 - The race to appoint the next Fed chair 26:35 - Productivity data and the AI narrative 35:51 - Labor market stall speed debate 39:56 - Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk 46:03 - Japan’s normalization and demographic...

In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent research and market behavior, the conversation examines why traditional bond allocations struggle during inflationary regimes and how commodity trend strategies may offer structural resilience. The discussion spans geopolitics, deglobalization, energy markets, fixed income autocorrelation, and the limits of forecasting macro outcomes. Rather than predicting inflation’s path, the episode focuses on portfolio construction that can endure multiple regimes. What emerges is a disciplined argument for robustness over precision in an increasingly unstable global system. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and series context 01:08 - Inflation back on the radar 02:38 - Recent podcast influences and inflation narratives 06:56 - Geopolitics, trust, and market fragmentation 08:52 - Commodities, volatility, and supply driven moves 10:48 - Trend performance and early 2026 conditions 11:30 - Fixed income, FX, and emerging market trends 17:26 - The all weather portfolio problem 18:18 - Bonds, inflation regimes, and correlation breakdowns 22:39 - Commodity trend as a defensive building block 27:01 - Are markets signaling higher inflation ahead 30:04 - What...