12-3-20 • Cattle Complex • Commodities working on their own identity • Second quarter of 2021 will bring some optimism • COVID protein worries • Heavier cattle in the north? How long till we get this all cleaned up? • December expirations & first notice days. • Open interest year over year • Hogs still a packer led market. Range bound for how much longer?
12-2-20 • Weather update on South America • Recovery in wheat catching attention • Illusive $12 beans • Cattle moved on the online exchange • Looking at last COF report how does that effect • COVID shutdowns…ethanol, jobs, proteins
11/27/20 1. Recap of the markets for the week. 2. How is the export demand looking for corn and soybeans? 3. Are you concerned about the rumors of China cancelling soybean purchases? 4. How is the ethanol demand for corn looking? 5. How does South American weather look? 6. What potential problems does the drier conditions in South America Produce? 7. Are corn and soybean prices overvalued or undervalued? 8. Do you think the prices of corn and soybeans go higher? 9. What do you think happens...
11-20-20 • Didn’t close near the highs that some had thought • Brazilian weather…driving factor overnight… • Will we hit $12 beans? So then what’s after $12? • How much COVID worry is being factored in? • A lot of fund trading in grains • Export sales haven’t been very aggressive
11-19-20 • Cattle risk off covid deal • Rumors about plant closings • Cash market steady • Food service retail issues • Marketing year high on beef exports • Beans impressive • Exports…pretty new into the trading year
11-18-20 • Nice to see some positive markets • Vaccine news once again supportive • COVID & Ethanol demand • Evidence that China is back to buying again • Rains coming to South America & the U.S. • Dryness worries could be pushed into spring • Balance act between grocery store meat hording & restrictions for food service
11-16-20 • Corn & beans have seen some big jumps in the past couple of weeks • Outside market influence • What do we do with corn at these levels? • What are the basis levels? • Will we see exports start to pick back up? • Political uncertainty
11-13-20 • WASDE • COVID…lock down any market fears • No man’s land right now • Ethanol is there some demand concerns? • Weekly export numbers…not a lot to talk about • Quiet on the export front • South looking for cattle…paying $3-4 higher this week
11-12-20 Funds look like they are the biggest mover in the trade Could be big volumes getting out...with many factors tied in Export sales did not pan out like many had thought Russians are set to sell a bunch of wheat to the world South American weather turns wet
11-11-20 • Some follow through buying for soybeans • Did corn get caught between wheat & beans • Export bids backed off when prices went high • Soybeans still closed higher-what is the potential in the market? • Did anything in the WASDE report surprise you? • South America’s crop…what kind of pressure will we see • China… • April & June cattle made contract highs
11/10/20 discusses how the rally continues in the grain complex with the WASDE report out on Tuesday. Hudson also highlights how USDA increased demand through imports and if China can continue it's strong pace of buying US commodities.
11-9-20 • WASDE Report out tomorrow (11/10) • How was the October WASDE set up? • Corn the highs made & carryout • Outside market influences…NASDAC & DOW • Cattle market & what does a vaccine mean to the proteins • Outlook for the rest of the week
11-6-20 • Lows in the box beef • Feeder cattle chart looks good • Do we hold or sell calves? • Could we see higher cash next week • Hogs moving sideways • Sitting with a lot of supply • COVID continues • WASDE from a livestock perspective • CME Pork cutout contract…will be watched by all Monday
11-5-20 On the other side of the election. How has the dollar been hit by the election? How is all the waiting affecting the trade market? 2012 was the last inflationary area Will ethanol margins remain tight? The Boy that called wolf Workings of the dairy prices Supply demand mismatch on beef demand
11-4-20 • Market is trading gridlock • Ethanol margins moving towards a lower trade? • COVID red flags • Rains slowed some planting in Brazil-but it’s still dry. • Cattle moving north to south • How current is the south vs. north
11-3-20 o Why did the corn and soybean markets pull back so much over the last week and are now higher on election day? o What is the latest on export demand for corn? o How is the ethanol demand for corn looking? o What does the export demand for soybeans look like? o What do you think will happen to the carry and basis in the soybean market? o Will South American weather become a bigger issue down the road? o Any estimates for the WASDE report next week?
11-2-20 • Nervousness heading into election tomorrow • How the markets came back around • Wheat & Crude Oil were part of the turnaround • Globally how are they looking at the trade & dollar ahead of & after Tuesday? • COVID concerns • Can the cash market kick it in gear with the fat cattle? • Is their weight concerns for cattle?