Climate Risk Podcast

Hear from Prof. David Stainforth of LSE’s Grantham Research Institute, as we explore the limitations of climate modelling and the implications for risk management. There are some things in life that we can be virtually certain about: if one throws a ball into the air, it will fall back down. Similarly, scientists have evidence beyond reasonable doubt that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased a lot in the recent past. But there are quite a lot of things that we don’t know with any confidence, giving rise to significant uncertainty when we try to forecast those things. That’s why in today’s episode, we’ll be exploring why climate change is particularly hard to model and predict. We’ll discuss: - The different types of modelling and models used for forecasting, and their relative strengths and limitations, - The benefits of adopting a more multi-disciplinary approach to understanding and tackling climate change, - And the critical need for science to examine climate change more through the lens of risk management. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Speaker’s Bio Prof. David Stainforth, Professorial Research Fellow in the Grantham Research Institute, LSE Dave Stainforth is Professorial Research Fellow in the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), and an Honorary Professor in the Physics Department at the University of Warwick. Dave carries out research on climate science and its relationship with climate economics and policy. He focuses particularly on uncertainty analysis and on how academic assessments can better support decision-making in the context of climate change. His new book, Predicting Our Climate Future, has recently been published, and is the focus of today’s discussion.

Hear from Prof. Pete Smith of the University of Aberdeen, as we explore the overlap in the challenges from, and solutions to, climate change and biodiversity loss. Climate change and biodiversity loss are often treated separately – in science, policy, and even risk management. But as the connections between these global crises come into sharper focus, it’s clear that understanding them together is essential for real progress. In this episode, we break down those silos of climate and nature, exploring an integrated approach and how it might help us address these challenges simultaneously. We discuss: How climate and nature impact everything from our food systems to our economies, health and security;The work being done by intergovernmental bodies to connect these issues;And how this work can lead to positive outcomes for climate, nature and society. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: https://www.ipbes.net/IBPES’ upcoming Nexus report: https://www.ipbes.net/nexusThe Joint IPCC-IBPES report on Biodiversity and Climate Change (2021): https://www.ipbes.net/events/ipbes-ipcc-co-sponsored-workshop-biodiversity-and-climate-changeSoil: An Invisible Crisis and Massive Climate Opportunity: https://www.garp.org/podcast/soil-crisis-opportunity-cr-041323 Speaker’s Bio(s) Prof. Pete Smith FRS, Professor of Soils and Global Change, University of Aberdeen Pete is the Professor of Soils and Global Change at the Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences at the University of Aberdeen (Scotland, UK), and is Science Director of the Scottish Climate Change Centre of Expertise (ClimateXChange). Since 1996, he has served as Convening Lead Author, Lead Author and Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. He is a global ecosystem modeller with interests in soils, agriculture, food security, bioenergy, greenhouse gases, climate change, greenhouse gas removal technologies, and climate change impacts and mitigation. He was a Royal Society-Wolfson Research Merit Award holder (2008-2013), and is also a Fellow of the Royal Society of Biology (since 2008), a Fellow of the Institute of Soil Scientists (since 2015), and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh (since 2009). He was awarded the British Ecological Society Marsh Award for Climate Change Research in 2014, and the European Geophysical Union Duchaufour Medal for ‘distinguished contributions to soil science’ in 2017.

Hear from Gordon Bennett, Managing Director at ICE, as we dive into theory and practice of carbon pricing and its important role in driving the transition to net zero. Carbon pricing is the poster child of market-based solutions to climate change. The principle is simple: by assigning a cost to greenhouse gas emissions, we incentivize polluters to emit less, and to do so in the most cost-effective way. But there’s a significant gap between the theory and practice. Currently, only 24% of global emissions – about 12.8 gigatonnes – are covered by pricing mechanisms such as carbon taxes or cap-and-trade. On top of that, just half a gigatonne was traded in voluntary markets last year. Clearly, there’s still a long way to go. In this episode, we explore the carbon pricing gap, including: Why it exists, what’s needed to close it; The integrity challenges facing voluntary carbon markets, and how to address them; And how central counterparties can help drive the transition by ensuring transparent, reliable pricing. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA): https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/CORSIA/Pages/default.aspxGARP Climate Risk Podcast with Simon Sharpe: https://www.garp.org/podcast/five-times-faster-cr-240321The Oxford Offsetting Principles: https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/research/oxford-offsetting-principlesGARP Climate Risk Podcast with Mark Campanale: https://www.garp.org/podcast/net-zero-supply-side-issues-cr-220303 Speaker’s Bio(s) Gordon Bennett, Managing Director of Utility Markets and Global Head of Environmental Markets, ICE Gordon has been Managing Director at Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) since February 2015. Mr. Bennett is responsible for the sales and business development of ICE’s global environmental portfolio, the world’s largest environmental marketplace. He is a member of the Board of ICE Endex, ICE Futures Abu Dhabi, Spark Commodities and a member of the Strategic Advisory Board of BeZero Carbon. He contributes to a wide range of external environmental and energy market initiatives including a member of the Nature Based Solutions Taskforce of the Sustainable Markets Initiative, the Transition to Net Zero Working Group of the Climate Financial Risk Forum, the City of London VCM Steering Committee, the VCMI Stakeholder Forum, the Advisory Board of the University of Cambridge Energy Policy Research Group and was named Environmental Finance’s sustainable business leader of the year in 2022. Prior to ICE, Gordon spent 12 years at the global energy broker, Spectron, joining as Group Financial Controller and latterly serving as Chief Executive Officer. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales.

Hear from three leading experts in natural catastrophe modeling, as we explore how climate change is causing the insurance industry to rethink their approach to modeling extreme weather. In the previous episode, we discussed the challenges facing the insurance industry from climate change – so in this episode, we’re going to dive into some of the solutions. Since natural catastrophe (Nat Cat) modeling was established in the late 1980s, the predictive power of their models has come from the statistical analysis of historical data. But as climate change continues to push the frequency and severity of extreme weather into uncharted territory, this approach begins to lose some of its potency. In response to this, new ways of thinking about Nat Cat modeling and insurance have emerged, with a focus on better capturing the effects of the changing climate on extreme weather. In this episode, we’ll explore: The recent explosion of earth system data and the role of machine learning in harnessing it; andHow improved Nat Cat modelling can support innovative products, like parametric insurance, and what this means for closing the insurance gap. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/152/1/MWR-D-22-0317.1.xmlReask’s Tropical Cyclone Wind Model: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/145/8/mwr-d-16-0429.1.xml?rskey=9h0SUA&result=2Reask’s Tropical Cyclone Rain Model: https://journals.ametsoc.org/search?f_0=author&q_0=Thomas+Loridan Speaker’s Bio(s) Jamie Rodney, CEO, Reask Jamie Rodney is the CEO of Reask, specializing in extreme weather risk modeling and forecasting. Jamie has over a decade of experience in applying advances in extreme weather analytics to the financial and reinsurance sectors. Jamie is dedicated to leveraging advanced technologies to enhance global climate risk understanding and support organizations in navigating complex climate challenges. Based in Zurich, he leads Reask’s pioneering vision in developing a new class of extreme weather risk measurement capabilities that do not exist today. Jamie holds a PhD in Mathematics from University College London. Thomas Loridan, Co-Founder and Chief Science Officer, Reask Thomas Loridan is Co-founder and Chief Science Officer at Reask, where he leads the development of cutting-edge natural catastrophe models using machine learning to quantify global climate risk. Holding a PhD in Boundary Layer Meteorology from King’s College London (2011), Thomas has deep expertise in atmospheric sciences and computational modeling. His work includes the creation of advanced wind field models for tropical cyclones and the integration of high-resolution data into probabilistic frameworks. David Schmid, Head of Global Data Product, Reask David Schmid is the Global Head of Data Products at Reask, where he oversees the development of products for risk assessment, parametric insurance and early warning systems. With over 15 years of experience in natural catastrophe risk modelling and parametric insurance, David has held roles at Glacier Re, NewRe, and Munich Re Capital Partners, where he contributed to advancing risk assessment and pricing standards. At Reask, David remains committed to developing innovative solutions that address the evolving needs of policyholders, brokers, and risk carriers.

Hear from two leading experts, as we explore how insurance is adapting to climate change and the role of the industry beyond underwriting. Insurance plays a critical role in protecting households and businesses from the impacts of climate change, and with physical risks on the rise, it will become ever more important. However, insurers have also been significantly impacted by these risks, with annual losses from natural catastrophes exceeding 100 billion dollars for four consecutive years. The primary concern is that these physical risks eventually become uninsurable, as we are already seeing for example with wildfires in California, leaving communities without the very protection that they most need. In this episode, we explore how the insurance industry has and should respond to these challenges, including: How insurance modelling must evolve to better capture the physical risks from climate change;The role of insurers in helping clients and policymakers understand and prepare for physical climate risks; andWhy adaptation is now a top priority for allowing insurance to be effective and help spread climate resilience across our society and economy. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Speaker’s Bio(s) Annemarie Büttner, Lead Climate Risk Solutions, Swiss Re Annemarie leads on corporate climate risk solutions at Swiss Re, helping companies identify, assess, reduce, and report the impacts of climate change to their businesses. She has 10-years’ experience focused on consulting and insurance, working on a range of topics including renewables, natural catastrophes, and parametric insurance. Swenja Surminski, Managing Director Climate and Sustainability, Marsh McLennan Swenja is the managing director of climate and sustainability at Marsh McLennan, as well as a Professor in Practice at the London School of Economics. In her career as an academic, Swenja researched climate risk management and resilience strategies, with a focus on public policies, financial instruments and individual behaviour. She has also held several advisory roles with corporates, regulatory authorities and governments, including the Bank of England and the World Bank.

Hear from Emma Howard Boyd CBE, Chair of the London Climate Resilience Review, as we dive into the challenges of climate adaptation and what it means for our cities. 2023 was not only the warmest year on record, it also marked the warmest 10-year period on record. As we witness first-hand the impacts of a warming climate, including heatwaves, more intense precipitation and increased flooding, the case for building resilience against these risks becomes ever more important. This is particularly so in our cities, where the concentration of populations and economic activity make adaptation non-negotiable. This episode’s guest has recently led a comprehensive review of the Climate Resilience of London, which takes stock of the city’s preparedness for climate impacts and makes a series of recommendations for how the city needs to bolster its efforts. In this episode, we explore: How cities are vulnerable to cascading and interconnected risks, which amplify the impacts of climate change; How a collaborative approach to learning and building resilience will be critical in the years ahead; And how adaptation and resilience need to be woven through our all our decision making, while paying particular attention to the most vulnerable communities To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: https://www.london.gov.uk/programmes-strategies/environment-and-climate-change/climate-change/climate-adaptation/london-climate-resilience-reviewC40 Cities Climate Leadership Group: https://www.c40.org/https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/thames-estuary-2100-te2100 Speaker’s Bio(s) Emma Howard Boyd, Chair, London Climate Resilience Review Emma has been the Chair of the London Climate Resilience Review, leading the delivery of its work since summer 2023. She has had an extensive career in financial services at the forefront of the climate change, environmental and sustainable finance agenda. Emma is also currently Chair of ClientEarth and a Global Ambassador for Race to Zero and Race to Resilience, and outgoing Chair of the Green Finance Institute. She has been Chair of the Environment Agency and an ex-officio board member of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs from 2016 to 2022. Emma serves on several boards and advisory committees which include The Major Projects Association, Climate Arc, and the European Climate Foundation. She was the UK Commissioner to the Global Commission on Adaptation from 2018 until its sunset in January 2021.

In this special episode, hear from Tony Rooke, Executive Director at Howden Group Holdings and Beth Gould Creller, GARP’s Sustainability & Climate Risk Program Lead, as they discuss the recent improvements to the SCR’s syllabus and learning experience. Long-time listeners of the podcast will have noticed that we often mention GARP’s Sustainability & Climate Risk (SCR) Certificate. It’s a program that GARP launched in 2020, providing all the foundational knowledge you need to become a climate risk leader within your own firm. This episode is a special one, as we bring you a conversation between Beth Gould Creller, who heads up GARP’s SCR team, and Tony Rooke, who alongside his role at Howden, is a member of the SCR Advisory Committee and long-time supporter of the program. You’ll learn about: The latest update to the SCR Curriculum, including new topics like nature risk and transition plans; The enhanced e-learning platform, including practical, hands-on modules; And testimonials from candidates on how the certificate has advanced their skills and careers. The SCR certificate is not only an excellent opportunity to boost your knowledge, but it also connects you with a global community of climate risk experts, fostering collaboration and innovation. Register before 31 July to save USD $100. Follow this link to find out more: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Speaker’s Bio(s) Tony Rooke, Executive Director and Head of Transition Advisory, Howden Group Holdings Tony is Executive Director in the Climate Risk and Resilience team at Howden, and head of climate transition advisory. He helps organisations plan and achieve their climate goals, to identify and manage climate risks, and then optimise returns from their transition investments. ​ ​Tony has over 25 years global experience in strategy advisory, risk management, disclosure and programme delivery, with over 18 years as a leader and expert in climate change, environment and sustainability issues affecting businesses and financial institutions. ​Prior to Howden, Tony was Head of Transition Finance and Transition Planning at the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), Senior Director for Transition Risk at WTW, and Global Technical Director for the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), the world’s largest environmental disclosure platform. He has contributed to regulatory, policy and industry work including transition planning and transition finance standards (the UK’s Transition Planning Taskforce and GFANZ), the reporting standards (EU EFRAG, CDSB, CDP, TCFD), and strategic use of models, pathways and scenarios (International Energy Agency (IEA), NGFS, MPP, CFRF, GFANZ). ​Tony is a member of GARP and on Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR) certification advisory committee. He is additionally a fellow of both the Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment (IEMA) and the Royal Society of Arts, Commerce and Manufacture (RSA).​ Beth Gould Creller, Sustainability & Climate Risk Program Lead, GARP Beth manages GARP's Sustainability and Climate Risk Program. Prior to joining GARP, she was a risk professional in the upstream oil and gas industry. Working across multiple continents, her energy career spanned enterprise risk management, internal audit, business controls, supply chain process improvement, and governance.

Hear from Lord Adair Turner, Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission, as we explore the shortcomings of nationally determined contributions and how they might be improved. Nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, are a bit like transition plans for countries, in that they set out what a country plans to do in order to meet the ambitions of the Paris Agreement. However, NDCs are voluntary, and collectively they don’t currently have us on track to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees, let alone the more ambitious target of 1.5 degrees. Today’s guest believes that this is a problem, as NDCs are failing to provide a clear direction for action. The less clarity there is about policy direction and ambition, the less likely markets will respond to policy signals to deliver the investment required for the transition. That’s why in this episode, we examine: What are the shortcomings in countries’ NDCs and how they can be addressed? Why NDCs don’t currently reflect the rapid technological progress that is already being made across sectors; and How geopolitics is influencing the transition and the challenges facing climate finance. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: https://www.energy-transitions.org/Credible Contributions: Bolder Plans for Higher Climate Ambition in the Next Round of NDCs: https://www.energy-transitions.org/publications/credible-contributions-bolder-plans-for-ndcs/Mission Possible: Reaching net-zero carbon emissions from harder-to-abate sectors: https://www.energy-transitions.org/publications/mission-possible/Climate Change Committee: https://www.theccc.org.uk/Just Capital: The Liberal Economy: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/5859117-just-capitalThe Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review: https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/the-economics-of-climate-change-the-stern-review/Finance for climate action: scaling up investment for climate and development: https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/finance-for-climate-action-scaling-up-investment-for-climate-and-development/ Speaker’s Bio(s) Lord Adair Turner, Chair, Energy Transitions Commission Lord Turner chairs the Energy Transitions Commission, a global coalition of major power and industrial companies, investors, environmental NGOs and experts working out achievable pathways to limit global warming to well below 2˚C while stimulating economic development and social progress. Lord Turner has chaired several high-profile organizations, including at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, the UK’s Financial Services Authority, the Climate Change Committee, the Pensions Commission and the Low Pay Commission. He was also Director General of the Confederation of British Industry. He became a crossbench member of the House of Lords in 2006. He is also a Trustee Emeritus of the British Museum, honorary fellow of The Royal Society, and received an Honorary Degree from Cambridge University in 2017.

Hear from Robin Millington, CEO of Planet Tracker, as we discuss how and why businesses should be thinking about their dependencies and impacts on nature. Sustainability is a complex topic, and for a long time, climate has been at the heart of discussion. Other challenges like pollution and biodiversity loss have often been sidelined. Recently however, following the work of the TNFD and others, these issues have risen up the corporate agenda, within the wider context of our impact and dependency on nature. Throughout her career, this guest has highlighted the importance of integrating nature into mainstream business. In this episode, we’ll explore: The urgent need to manage climate and nature risks holistically;How our failure to value natural capital correctly is pressurizing the global food system and other key sectors;And the role that financial markets have in creating a nature-positive future. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: https://planet-tracker.org/Carbon Tracker homepage: https://carbontracker.org/The Financial Markets Roadmap for Transforming the Global Food System: https://planet-tracker.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Financial-Markets-Roadmap-for-transforming-the-Global-Food-System.pdf Speaker’s Bio Robin Millington, CEO, Planet Tracker Having dedicated nearly three decades to environmental causes including climate, biodiversity/nature and wetlands/water, Robin is an experienced senior director with an extensive track record including as a Director with the European Climate Foundation, Founding Director of Wetlands International and Managing Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels. Previously she spent many years in the private sector both in consulting and in multinational work. She has an MBA from INSEAD and her BA from Stanford University. She is currently a member of the Supervisory Board of the Capitals Coalition, was previously a member of the Supervisory Board of the Gold Standard Foundation and serves on various advisory committees.

Hear from Catherine Howarth OBE, CEO of ShareAction, as we dive into the world of shareholder activism and how it can be used to guide institutional investors towards sustainable behaviours. Moving away from fossil fuels is unambiguously the most crucial step in the transition to a sustainable net-zero world. And yet, governments and institutional investors worldwide continue to heavily subsidise and invest in the fossil fuel industry. The longer we delay the transition, the greater the risks that we face. So, how can we break this cycle? Today’s guest has been focused on this and other sustainability issues throughout her career. That’s why in this episode, we’ll be exploring her world of shareholder activism, discussing: The toolkit for influencing institutional investors, including naming and shaming the worst performers; The different challenges when engaging with banks, insurers, and asset managers; And how shareholder activism can go beyond climate to create a more sustainable future for us all. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: https://shareaction.org/Living Wage Foundation’s homepage - https://www.livingwage.org.uk/ Speaker’s Bio(s) Catherine Howarth OBE, CEO of ShareAction Catherine has been Chief Executive of ShareAction since July 2008. ShareAction is the leading civil society organisation in Europe promoting responsible investment, transparency and good governance by institutional investors. Catherine is a board member of the Scott Trust, owner of the Guardian Media Group, and a member of HM Treasury’s task force on asset management. She was a Member Nominated Trustee of The Pensions Trust (the multi-employer pension scheme for the UK’s not-for-profit sector) for five years, where she served on the Investment Committee of this £7bn fund. In 2011, Catherine was named a ‘Rising Star of Corporate Governance’ by Yale University’s Millstein Center, and in 2014 she was recognised by the World Economic Forum as a Young Global Leader in 2014. Catherine holds a First Class BA in Modern History from Oxford University and an MSc in Industrial Relations from the London School of Economics.

Hear from David Carlin, Head of Risk at the UNEP Finance Initiative, as we dive into their latest reports covering the climate risk tool landscape, the use of AI in disclosures, and 1.5 degree warming scenarios. As the world’s leading authority on the environment, the United Nations Environment Programme (or UNEP), has a mission to inspire, inform, and enable nations and peoples to improve their quality of life, without compromising that of future generations. And, they recognise the critical role of the financial system in achieving this goal. Through UNEP FI – their Financial Initiative – they convene networks of banks, insurers and investors to help accelerate sustainable development, as well as manage the associated risks. Today’s guest is an energetic part of this network, helping financial firms tackle issues such as climate scenario analysis, climate risk assessments, and navigating the world of sustainability regulation. In this episode, we’ll explore some key insights from his work, including: · How the landscape of climate risk tools and analytics providers is changing, for example with the increased use of Machine learning and AI; · The challenges of translating the science of climate change to actionable insights for financial practitioners. · And our guests’ secrets for reaching 100,000 followers on LinkedIn to help drive awareness of these vitally important topics. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: https://www.unepfi.org/UNEPFI’s 2024 Climate Risk Landscape Report – https://www.unepfi.org/themes/climate-change/2024-climate-risk-landscape/David Carlin’s LinkedIn page - https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-carlin7/ Speaker’s Bio David Carlin, Head of Risk, United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative (UNEPFI) David and his team support financial actors across the world to develop best practices for managing environmental risks and identifying environmental opportunities. Alongside his current role, David advises the Task Force on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) and the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) and is the founder of Cambium Global Solutions, which helps governments, corporations, and financial institutions address environmental challenges. Prior to his current role, David worked as a Principal in Finance, Risk, and Public Policy for Oliver Wyman.

Hear from George Marshall, Author of “Don’t Even Think About It: Why Our Brains Are Wired To Ignore Climate Change,” as we dive into the psychology of climate change. If you follow this podcast, you probably already have a good understanding of the nature of climate change, the risks it poses and why we need to act decisively and with urgency. But many people don’t listen to the podcast, and even if they did, they might think it was a lot of nonsense. Depending on people’s worldview, values, and socio-cultural background, the same message can be interpreted in many ways. That’s why in today’s episode, we’re focusing on the psychology of climate change. We’ll be exploring questions such as: · What is it about the human brain that makes it so hard for us to accept the reality of climate change and take steps to address it? · How is it possible that, when presented with overwhelming evidence of climate change, even the evidence of our own eyes, we can still choose to ignore it? · And given our biases and shortcomings, how can we still find effective ways to communicate the dangers of climate change to audiences that are typically closed off to receiving those messages? To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Speaker’s Bio George Marshall, Author and Climate Change Communication Expert George is a consultant in the public communication of climate change, and the psychological obstacles to attitude and behaviour change. His key interest is the design of narratives that can build a consensus for climate action across the whole of society. His insights draw on hundreds of focus groups and structured interviews listening to people expressing their hopes, fears and doubts about climate change. His book “Don’t Even Think About It: Why Our Brains Are Wired to Ignore Climate Change”, explores the social and psychological obstacles to climate action. It is currently on its seventh printing and was listed by Esquire as one of the ‘15 essential books on climate change.’

Hear from Simon Sharpe, Director of Economics at the UNFCCC Climate Champions, as we explore three key problems that are impeding the transition to net-zero and how to address them. We know that reaching net zero emissions quickly enough to avoid the worst impacts of climate change will be very challenging. But are we making it even more difficult than it needs to be? Today’s guest thinks so, particularly when it comes to climate science, economics, and climate diplomacy. That’s why in today’s episode, we’ll be looking at how we could make all three work more effectively. We’ll explore: · How climate science must change in order to generate meaningful action within our political institutions; · How economists became overly fixated on carbon pricing, while missing other policies that would be even more impactful in accelerating the transition to net zero; · And how the current model of climate diplomacy could be altered to allow for faster net zero negotiations. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Speaker’s Bio Simon Sharpe, Director of Economics, UNFCCC Climate Champions Simon took up his current role in early 2022, having previously held several senior positions in the UK government, including as Deputy Director of the COP26 Unit, and as Head of Climate Change Strategy for both the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. In 2013-15, he created an international climate change risk assessment project, working with experts from the UK, USA, China, India, and other countries. In addition to influencing the understanding and assessment of climate change risk in its partner countries, its findings were extensively cited by the Scientific Advisory Board of the UN Secretary General. It also inspired new thinking in the academic community, with a lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change using it to argue that ‘climate science needs to take risk assessment much more seriously’. More recently, he has worked with partners in the UK, China, India and Brazil to create the world’s first government-backed project to apply complexity economics to climate change. His paper on economic tipping points, ‘Upward-scaling tipping cascades to meet climate goals: plausible grounds for hope’, was the most downloaded paper in Climate Policy journal in 2021. Simon has published influential reports and created ground-breaking international projects in climate change risk assessment, economics, and diplomacy. His recent book, “Five Times Faster,” draws from Simon’s ten years’ experience at the forefront of climate change policy and diplomacy.

Hear from Dr. Jakob Thomae, Project Director for the Inevitable Policy Response, as we discuss their latest forecast and what it means for the transition to net-zero. Scenario analysis is the natural tool for anyone wanting to understand how climate-related risks might evolve over coming decades. The vast majority of climate scenarios, regardless of who produced them or what level of warming they predict, tend to report similar levels of physical risk over the next couple of decades or so. However, predictions about transition risk tend to be quite different between scenarios. This episode focuses in on the transition, and in particular the extraordinary work being done by the Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) to figure out the most likely course of the transition to net zero. We’ll explore: · The IPR’s surprisingly optimistic forecast, and they believe the world might look like by the end of the century; · The methodology behind their forecast, and how it differs from the scenarios produced by other groups; and · What this forecast means for risk and finance professionals. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: https://ipr.transitionmonitor.com/Theia Finance Labs (formerly known as the 2° Investing Initiative): https://theiafinance.org/Jakob’s first book, ‘The Kill Score: On the Trail of Our Ecological and Social Footprint’: https://rb.gy/ydnxvuParis Agreement Capital Transition Assessment (PACTA): https://pacta.rmi.org/The International Energy Agency (IEA): https://www.iea.org/How Bad are Bananas? by Mike Berners-Lee: https://howbadarebananas.com/Jakob’s second book, ‘The Little Book of Big Risks: From Atomic Bombs to a Zombie Apocalypse’: https://rb.gy/8lk1no Speaker’s Bio Dr. Jakob Thomae, Project Director, Inevitable Policy Response Jakob Thomae is one of the leading global experts on sustainable finance and long-term risks. In June 2023, Jakob was appointed Project Director for the Inevitable Policy Response (IPR), a climate transition forecasting consortium commissioned by the Principles for Responsible Investment. The IPR helps investors navigate the risks and opportunities arising from climate policy acceleration, volatility and transition. Jakob is the co-founder of Theia Finance Labs (formerly known as the 2° Investing Initiative) where he currently serves as Research Director. Jakob is also Professor in Practice at SOAS, University of London, where he teaches a Green Finance course. His recent book "The Kill Score” explores the impact of sustainability on human lives. Jakob has served as advisor to central banks around the world including the Japanese Financial Services Agency, the Brazilian Central Bank, the Bank of Thailand, the Bank of England, the Bundesbank, the Dutch Central Bank, and EIOPA. He holds a PhD in Finance from the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers.

Hear from Thomas Vaassen, Co-Founder and CEO of Meridia, to learn how the EU Deforestation Directive is changing the nature of data required across supply chains. Supply chains are becoming an ever-greater focus for risk professionals. Firms increasingly want to measure the carbon footprint of their suppliers, or better understand their resilience, in the face of increasingly severe weather shocks. We are also seeing legislation driving greater transparency, which hinges on our ability to get accurate data. Although often taken for granted in the developed world, having good quality data on property rights is not a given in many parts of the world and this, in turn, makes analysis of complex and often remote components of supply chains very challenging. That’s why today’s episode will focus on: How legislation, such as the The practical challenges for obtaining good quality property rights data in remote locations; and How the world of data might change over coming years, with advances in technology and data collection. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Speaker’s bio Thomas Vaassen, Co-Founder and CEO of Meridia Thomas is currently the CEO of Meridia, a data partner that focuses on traceability and transparency, living income, and regenerative agriculture. Prior to this role, he was the Founder and CTO of Meridia, where they provided affordable land documentation to smallholder farmers. Thomas also served as the Program Director of the Investment Ready Program NL, where he helped green ventures prepare for investment and growth. Thomas has a background in managing social and sustainable initiatives, as Managing Director of Impact Hub Amsterdam, and the Chairman of the Board for Impact Hub Association. Additionally, he co-founded Blik-Opener, an organization that offers career coaching and development programs. Thomas also has experience in consulting, as a Founding Partner of Realize!, a consulting company that specializes in organizing for fast growth.

Hear from Jo Paisley and Maxine Nelson of the GARP Risk Institute as they look back on key learnings from the latest season of the Climate Risk Podcast. As we head into 2024, Jo and Maxine look back at the past year of Climate Risk Podcasts, reviewing key learnings from our guests and discussing ongoing trends in climate risk management. From academics to ambassadors, CEOs to entrepreneurs, we’ve upheld our promise to showcase a variety of different perspectives on climate risk and sustainability. This episode re-examines the rich knowledge that has been shared on the Climate Risk Podcast over the last 12 months, creating a narrative of climate and nature risk wisdom to guide our listeners through this fast-moving field. So, today’s episode will explore: What we’ve learnt about the physical risks associated with climate change and nature loss;The key risks that arise in the transition to a net-zero world; and To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate Links to featured episodes: David Schimel and Pooja Khosla - Bridging the Gap between Climate Science and Risk Management Dr. Erica Thompson - The Power and Pitfalls of Models in Climate Risk Management Rohan Hamden - Why Extreme Climate Physical Risks Are Closer Than You Might Think Mike Azlen - The Future of the Carbon Markets Explained for Risk Professionals Dr. Nicola Ranger - Balancing Mitigation and Adaptation: Insights for the Financial Sector Simon Zadek - TNFD and Beyond: An Introduction to Nature in Finance Professor Jo Handelsman - Soil: An Invisible Crisis and Massive Climate Opportunity Nigel Topping - The COP28 Survival Guide: How it Works and What to Expect Jane Stevensen - License to Drill: What New Oil & Gas Extraction Means for the Energy Transition Nicky Dee - From Startup to Sustainability: Innovating For The Climate Emergency Natalia Dorfman - Powerful Risk Management: Insurance Foundations for High-Integrity Carbon Markets Carys Taylor - How Film and Television Are Adapting to Climate Change Chris Howland and Lars Popken - Embedding Climate Within Risk Management: A Practitioner’s Guide Ron Dembo - Dealing with Uncertainty in Scenario Analysis: Stochastic vs. Deterministic Approaches Also discussed in this episode: GARP Whitepaper - Biodiversity Loss: An Introduction for Risk Professionals Today’s Speakers Jo Paisley, President, GARP Risk Institute Maxine Nelson, Ph.D, Senior Vice President, GARP Risk Institute

Hear from Dr. Erica Thompson, as we examine the modelling ecosystem and when we need to escape it to make real-world decisions. Climate science – like many areas of our lives, such as economics or public health – is based upon models. These models are often used to justify certain courses of action, such as investments in climate mitigation or adaptation, or even lock downs during the pandemic. But what makes a ‘good model’? Is it purely how well it forecasts? Or are there other aspects that we need to consider, such as reliability, complexity, and how well it deals with uncertainty? And who gets to decide how good a model is? In this episode, we’ll take a closer look at these questions and explore some of the nuances of models, including: · How to judge how good a model is, · The vital importance of understanding the values which underpin models · And how models have the power to shape the very future which they forecast. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: Escape From Model Landhttps://www.ericathompson.co.uk/books/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdfYale’s William Nordhaus wins 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics: https://news.yale.edu/2018/10/08/yales-william-nordhaus-wins-2018-nobel-prize-economic-sciences Speaker’s Bio Erica Thompson, Associate Professor of Modelling for Decision Making at UCL’s Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy Erica’s book, Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do About It, was published in December 2022 and was shortlisted for Best Maths Book of 2022 by Chaulkdust Magazine, a specialist magazine for mathematicians. Erica moved into her current role in April 2023, where she investigates the appropriate use of mathematical modelling to support real-world decisions, from mathematical and statistical questions about methodologies of inference from models, to psycho-social questions about the formation of confidence and the role of expert judgement. Erica is also a Fellow of the London Mathematical Laboratory, where she leads the research programme on Inference from Models, and is a Visiting Senior Fellow at the LSE Data Science Institute. Erica previously held a series of roles at the LSE’s Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, initially as a Senior Policy Fellow, and subsequently as Co-Director and Acting Director. Erica holds a BA in Experimental and Theoretical Physics and a Master of Mathematics degree from Cambridge University. She completed her PhD in Physics at Imperial College London.

Hear from David Schimel and Pooja Khosla of Entelligent, as we explore the intersection of climate science and risk management. For over 30 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has reported on the future physical impacts of climate change, based on the best available science. But these predictions have tended to underplay the likelihood of extreme risks. This is in part because scientists have focused more on the centre of the distribution rather than the extremes, which is likely to have been in part a reaction against an increasingly politicised level of scrutiny. However, for risk professionals, the tails of the distribution are of particular importance. They also need also to think about the nature of the transition, which will depend on a number of factors, such as technological improvements and policy changes. Here, we have also seen systematic errors – for example, just consider the errors in forecasting the cost of solar energy. So in today’s episode, we’ll take a closer look at the balance of these errors on the physical and transition side. We’ll explore the intersection of climate science and risk management, including: The challenge of translating climate science into actionable financial risk data; andHow ignoring the less likely impacts of climate change can lead to greater losses and missed opportunities. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: - Entelligent homepage: https://www.entelligent.com/ - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report: https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar4/ - NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory: https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/ - Article: Do Two Climate Wrongs Make a Right? By David Schimel and Charles Miller: https://www.entelligent.com/news-and-perspective/do-two-climate-wrongs-make-a-right/ Speakers' Bios David Schimel, Co-Founder and Chairman of the Board at Entelligent, and Senior Research Scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory Dave is the Co-Founder and Chairman of Entelligent, and a Senior Research Scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. He has a 30-plus-year career working in top research positions and leadership roles in carbon cycle climate interactions and global climate modelling. Dave was a Convening Lead Author for the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, for which it was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. In 2012, he was named a Fellow of the Ecological Society of America. Pooja Khosla, Chief Innovation Office, Entelligent Pooja is the Chief Innovation Officer of Entelligent, and along with Dave, invented the company’s patented Smart Climate® technology. A data scientist and econometrician, Pooja’s 15-year career has focused on predictive modelling, microfinance, and the design of investment tools. She has a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Colorado Boulder, and speaks and writes extensively on climate risk and investment.

Hear from Simon Zadek, Executive Director at NatureFinance and Senior Advisor to the TNFD, as we explore the growing intersection of nature and finance. With the recent release of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures Framework (TNFD), the idea of nature risk is now in the spotlight for many finance professionals. Even though some may have encountered elements of ‘nature’ in their work before, for example when looking at supply chain risk, it may not have been labelled as such. And with many just getting to grips with climate risk management, there is an open question around how to incorporate nature-related issues. That’s why in today’s episode, we’ll take a closer look at the concept of nature in finance. We’ll reflect on: What the TNFD framework covers and what this means for risk professionals; andThe risks and opportunities that nature presents. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on nature and climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: https://www.naturefinance.net/Recommendations of the TNFD: https://tnfd.global/recommendations-of-the-tnfd/Taskforce on Nature Markets homepage: https://www.naturemarkets.net/EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_enEU Regulation on deforestation-free products: https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/forests/deforestation/regulation-deforestation-free-products_enReport - Making Nature Markets Work (Taskforce on Nature Markets): https://www.naturemarkets.net/publications/making-nature-markets-work-extended-reportReport - Breaking the Environmental Crimes-Finance Connection (NatureFinance): https://www.naturefinance.net/resources-tools/breaking-the-environmental-crimes-finance-connection/Report - More for Less: Scaling Sustainability-linked Sovereign Debt (NatureFinance): https://www.naturefinance.net/resources-tools/more-for-less-scaling-sustainability-linked-sovereign-debt/ Speaker’s Bio Simon Zadek, Executive Director at NatureFinance and Senior Advisor to the TNFD Simon currently holds a number of leadership roles, including Executive Director at NatureFinance, co-lead of the Taskforce on Nature Markets, and Senior Advisor to the TNFD, Chair of Finance for Biodiversity, and Director of Migrant Nation. Simon has also previously held many senior roles within the UN, including as Head, Secretariat, UN Secretary General’s Task Force on Digital Financing of the Sustainable Development Goals, as Senior Advisor on Finance in the Executive Office of the Secretary General, and as Co-Director of UNEP's Inquiry into the Design of a Sustainable Financial System. In these roles, he co-Chaired China’s Green Finance Task Force, and led the Green Finance Study Group secretariat under the Chinese, German and Argentinian G20 Presidencies. Prior to this, he was Senior Advisor to the World Economic Forum and the Global Green Growth Institute, founder and CEO of the international think tank, AccountAbility and Development Director of the New Economics Foundation. He was Visiting Professor at the Singapore Management University and the Copenhagen Business School, and has been a senior fellow at Tsinghua School of Economics and Management, Harvard`s Kennedy School of Government, and the University of Southern Africa, amongst others. He has worked with many corporations, governments and multi stakeholder initiatives on their sustainability and broader strategies, been a member of the International Advisory Board of Generation Investment Management, and has published extensively, including the award winning book, The Civil Corporation.

Hear from Nigel Topping, Former UN Climate Change High-Level Champion for COP26, as we set the scene for COP28 in Dubai. The COP, or Conference of Parties, is the annual convention of the signatories of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is where all the high-level decision-making around the global transition to net-zero occurs – as such, it’s an incredibly important event for stakeholders all around the world. With the next one just around the corner, this episode will set the scene for COP28 in Dubai, explaining the inner workings of the COP and identifying the key issues up for discussion. We’ll explore: The successes and shortcomings of the COP mechanism, and how it squares up to the challenge of multilateral negotiations;The complex ecosystem of government, business, civil society and lobbying that has coalesced around the formal proceedings, and the challenges and opportunities that it brings;And the headline issues that will be faced (and hopefully resolved) over the course of COP28. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from today’s discussion: https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/global-ambassadors/Our Episode with Sir Dieter Helm - https://www.garp.org/podcast/not-net-zero-cr-210708UNFCCC, Global Stocktake - https://unfccc.int/topics/global-stocktakeThe Inevitable Policy Response - https://www.unpri.org/sustainability-issues/climate-change/inevitable-policy-responseInstitute and Faculty of Actuaries/University of Exeter, The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios - https://actuaries.org.uk/emperors-new-climate-scenariosRocky Mountain Institute, X-Change: Electricity - https://rmi.org/insight/x-change-electricity/ Speaker’s Bio Nigel Topping, Global Ambassador with the UN Climate Change High-Level Champions As one of the 14 Global Ambassadors, Nigel was selected by the UN to help accelerate the implementation of net-zero targets and climate adaptation. Until November 2022, Nigel was the UN Climate Change High-Level Champion from COP26 in Glasgow, having been appointed by the UK Prime Minister in January 2020. Working alongside Egypt’s High-Level Champion for COP27, Dr. Mahmoud Mohieldin, Nigel helped strengthen collaboration and drive action from businesses, investors, organisations, cities, and regions on climate change, and coordinate this work with governments and Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Previously, Nigel was CEO of We Mean Business, a coalition of businesses working to accelerate the transition to a net-zero economy. Before that, he was Executive Director of the CDP, following an 18-year career in the private sector, having worked across the world in emerging markets and manufacturing. Nigel is also a non-executive director of the UK Infrastructure Bank, and is a member of the UK’s Climate Change Committee.