Driving with Dunne

What do we really know about Xi Jinping, China's most powerful leader since Chairman Mao? Answer: Incredibly little. Xi is the embodiment of inscrutability, the ultimate poker face. And second, the Party he has led since 2012 is notoriously secretive and opaque. But, wait, there is a fresh glimmer of light. His name is Joseph Torigian, a highly respected scholar who has written an incredibly powerful book about Xi Jinping's father, Xi Zhongxun. Through it, we learn a lot about Xi Jinping himself, his unbelievably harsh formative years living in a cave in dirt poor rural China, his quiet rise to power and the principles that guide his extraordinary reign as the No. 1 in China. What does Xi Jinping want for China ? What does it mean for Americans, Europeans and the rest of the world? Joseph Torigian, author, The Party's Interests Come First, has answers, here on the Driving With Dunne podcast

Our guest today, Lizzi Lee, is smart, daring and unconventional. After earning a PhD in economics from MIT, Lizzi Lee took a bold right turn and dove into research and writing. A few weeks ago, Lizzi wrote a very compelling piece in Foreign Affairs about the risks facing Chinese companies - price wars and vanishing margins at home. The stubborn underlying problem is that China cannot shake itself free from chronic overcapacity. Well, why not, we might wonder. Just shout down the extra plants and get supply in line with demand. It's more complicated than that, of course, especially in China where jobs and stability are number one. Too much capacity, too little profits making everyone a little bit tired, a phenomenon the Chinese call involution or neijuan in Chinese to roll up or coil up. Born in China, formative years in Hong Kong and Singapore, and now in America, Lizzi gives us an insider's view of the realities oin the ground in the PRC as we get ready to head in to 2026.

Earlier this year, I enjoyed a delicious lunch in Mexico City with Luis Lozano, the former CEO of Toyota de Mexico. Luis immediately impressed me with his knowledge of the Mexican car market, the shock of hundreds of thousands of Chinese imports since 2020 and the possibilities that Chinese automakers will try to make Mexico a production base for exports to the United States. One of his goals, Luis told me, was to open American eyes to the current realities of Chinese cars. They are good value for money, they are coming our way. And they are not turning back. So, which companies are ones to watch? Are they going to build plants in Mexico as they have done in Brazil, Spain and Thailand? How soon? In today's conversation we get answers to those questions here on the Driving With Dunne podcast.

President Trump and President Xi, the two most powerful men in the world, met last week in Korea to try to, basically, calm things down. China had just flexed its muscles, threatening to limit the export of key inputs like rare earth magnets and other critical minerals without which auto assembly plants in America could, within weeks, come to a standstill. America could inflict its own damage, by widening the net of sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals. Looking at the images on the TV screen, I began to wonder: In what areas are America and China still in agreement? Taiwan? No. South China Sea? No. Russia? No. Chips? No. Trade. A big no. That got me thinking about what lies ahead. To bring clarity and wisdom, I welcome Jorge Guajardo, former ambassador of Mexico to China to the show to ask him some fundamental questions: Since the US and China seem to have different values, different priorities and different regulations, can they ever see eye to eye? Who is decoupling more quickly, the United States or China. And how will Mexico play its cards as it finds itself squeezed between China and the United States with the car industry, investments and jobs looming large.

Here's a question I get a lot. How did China get so good so fast. People with front line experience in the People's Republic talk about something called the China arc. Chinese leaders identify your company as the global leader. They entice you to invest in China. Chinese companies gradually extract know-how from you. Then they begin to compete with you inside China. Pretty soon, they are present in global markets, giving you a run for the money everywhere. The clearest example of this is solar panels, where Chinese now control more than 90% of global production. There are more: Magnets, batteries, ship-building and drones. Starting 10 years ago, China began accelerating its arc in two high value industries: Smart phones and electric cars. Today, it turns out that Apple finds itself n the mother of all Chinese arcs, one with huge implications for the company's long term competitiveness. That's the captivating message from Patrick McGee, author of a tremendous new book titled: Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Most Valuable Company. For over a decade Apple consistently invested more than $50 billion into training Chinese suppliers? How come. Well, Apple wanted to be absolutely to make certain that hundreds of millions of iPhones ChIna built were the highest quality in the world. Flawless. Yes, that's $50 billion. a year, a number, which McGee points out makes America's post WWII Marshall Plan look like chicken feed. McGee is a terrific guest, lively and smart with lots of fun asides. What's catfishing? Not what you think. And is the what's this about 300 million roving employees? McGee has answers, on the Driving With Dunne podcast.

Dazed, bruised and confused. That's how leaders of global automakers and suppliers operating in China feel these days. Since 2020, they have seen their once formidable China sales and profit machines vanish. As a group global automakers will sell 8 million fewer vehicles in China this year than they did in 2020. Eight million! People at headquarters are asking some tough questions: Where did things go wrong? And could it have been avoided? This is where a person with years of first-hand experience in China becomes valuable. Meet Mitch Presnick, a visiting fellow at Harvard and before that, the founder of the Super 8 Motel franchise in China. Mitch knows China and gives it to us straight. The Chinese are not boy scouts, he reminds us. It's necessary to negotiate super hard, and to keep negotiating even when you think the job is done. Sounds exhausting, right? Well, that's the bar for survival in China – for Chinese people just as much as for foreigners. In today's conversation, Mitch lets us know what's required to compete and recommend tools that will serve us well not only in China but in dealing with Chinese businesses as they go global.

In the good old days of driving, we needed to make sure the mechanical things worked: Things like the engine, of course, the steering and the brakes. We were in charge of driving the car. Now, for better and for worse, technologies are moving in and taking over. Sensors, cameras, on-board computers, software. Those powerful technologies are mostly invisible to the naked eye. They give us directions and infotainment; they help to avoid accidents. The more advanced technologies can now deliver us from Point A to Point B without human intervention. That's quite amazing when you think about it. And more than a little bit scary. How do we know that the sophisticated hardware and software will operate safely every time we get into the car? The reality is that there is no such thing as a perfect system, at least not yet. But there are ways to minimize our risks. That's where QNX comes in. The company, based in Ottawa, Canada, delivers real-time operating systems for safety critical applications. As COO John Wall says, the modern car is becoming a robot on wheels. How can we know for sure that our robot remains our best friend, always looking out for our safety and security? John Wall has answers, today, on the Driving With Dunne podcast.

By now, you have probably heard that there are more than 200 million connected cars on the road today. But, wait a minute. What is a connected car – and how does a connected car make our lives better? A simple way to think about it is that a connected car is one that is linked to the internet, just like our phone. And like our smartphones, that linkage gives cars an ability to deliver countless new features and functions via over-the-air updates. Connected cars are new in another way: For the first time in over one hundred years, the automotive industry relies on a different industry - cellular - for key innovation. So, how exactly do automakers engage with the tech providers, the ones holding the valuable tech patents? Enter Avanci, a company formed in 2016 to serve as a bridge and broker between the tech powerhouses and the automotive giants. Joining this episode of the Driving With Dunne podcast is Laurie Fitzgerald, President, Avanci Vehicle. Laurie walks us through Avanci's unique role working as a vital go-between for global carmakers and the global tech providers. Laurie also shares her very first experience driving in Ireland, a right-hand drive market. Was the car connected?

It is hard for Americans to imagine not being No. 1. The US has been the leading industrial, economic and military power since the end of WWII. But now America confronts a challenger that appears to be bigger, faster and more ambitious. That challenger is China. The PRC now manufactures one third of the world's cars, sixty percent of EVs, seventy percent of batteries and utterly dominates battery supply chains. How did Chinese companies get so powerful so quickly? What can America and the West learn from China's rapid ascendancy? And what can we do to compete going forward? Joining me today on the Driving wWith Dunne podcast is Kyle Chan, author of the widely read and highly respected newsletter, High Capacity. Kyle reveals China's secret superpowers – many of which might appear surprisingly ordinary. But they're not.

How do we begin to get our minds around the global blitz of tariffs unleashed by the Trump Administration. Is it madness or is there a method to the madness? One thing is certain: Donald Trump has definitely captured the attention of leaders in Asia, Europe, Mexico and Canada. They are trying to come to terms with arguably the greatest economic and trade shock in decades. Joining us today is Wendy, Cutler, one of the most skilled negotiators on the planet. She knows trade, she knows tariffs and she has more than 30 years of experience negotiating trade deals. I ask Wendy to talk us through the current state of trade and tariffs, what she thinks President Trump is trying to get done and how this great tariff blitz is likely to land. Let's just say she is not brimming with optimism. But she does have some advice for White House - if the phone rings.

When it comes to China, most Americans are mostly in the dark. Don't believe me? Just quiz your friends. Ask them to name the five largest cities in China. Or to tell you the difference between people in Fujian and Sichuan, or Beijing and Guangzhou? Or how many cars China exported last year. Is China's economy booming on the back of record exports or reeling from a property meltdown and tanking consumer confidence? How many of us can say we know for sure. How many of us are in regular communication with people in China? Here to fill the void is Emily Feng, author of a tremendous new book called Let Only Red Flowers Bloom. Ms Feng brings to life the joys and sorrows, advances and setbacks of ordinary people in China. And she explains why, under Xi Jinping, people are encouraged to bloom red.

When it comes to EVs, people seem to embrace one of two schools of thought. In school one, electric vehicles may have a role to play but that role is limited. Manufacturers should not be required to build them. And citizens should not be required to pay taxes to subsidize purchase of EVs. In school two, the belief is that electric vehicles are, without a doubt, the future. By 2040 the vast majority of all new vehicles will be propelled by motors driven with energy from batteries. Which school has it right? Enter our special guest today, Mike Colias, author of a tremendous new book called InEVitable: Inside the Messy Unstoppable Transition to Electrics. Mr. Colias has covered the automotive business for the Wall Street Journal for more than ten years. In this episode he gives us a view on what makes building EVs and batteries so hard for the Detroit Three. Who among the Detroit Three is doing the best job? Who is falling behind? And how might America's commitment to EVs change under the Trump Administration?

Chinese leaders believe overcapacity across industries including automotive is a cyclical problem that fresh growth will solve. Foreign investors with experience in the PRC see things differently. To them, overcapacity is a direct result of China's planned economy. Not only does massive overcapacity spark price wars inside China, it also threatens to spur an avalanche of exports into markets worldwide, undermining industries and killing jobs. Joerg Wuttke led the China operations of BASF, the German chemical giant for 27 years. Mr Wuttke knows China like few people on the planet. In the summer of 2024, he became a partner at the Albright Stonebridge Group based in Washington DC. Mr Wuttke is considered one of the world's leading experts on Europe-China trade and investments. Today, we talk about what Mr Wuttke calls China's "breaking point" when it comes to overcapacity. How soon will it arrive? What will it look like?

We're trying something a little different this week! Michael Dunne recently appeared as a guest on the podcast FACE-OFF: The U.S. vs. China, where he had an insightful and engaging conversation with host Jane Perlez. He enjoyed the discussion so much that he wanted to share it with you. The description below is from the FACE-OFF podcast. ==================== Back in 2015 the Chinese government declared that they would become the world leader in EVs by 2025. Major car companies scoffed. Who wants an EV? Today, China automakers have surpassed Japan, Germany and the US to become the number one exporter of cars. A record number of Chinese EVs were sold globally last year. How did China become the global leader in EVs? We’ll talk with the man who literally wrote the book on the rise of China’s car industry. Guest: Michael Dunne, Auto executive in China and the US, author American Wheels, Chinese Roads. Book Recommendations: Michael Dunne’s new book expected mid-2025.Power Play: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century by Tim Higgins.

Alex Roy and his co-pilots recently made two historic coast to coast trips - California to New York - in his brand new Model S. Their mission: Measure the efficiency and safety of the Tesla FSD system. How close was Tesla to mastering full autonomy? Roy and Team use two key metrics. The first is the total number of disengagements – whether voluntary or involuntary. The second: How quickly could the system recover after a disengagement? Roy, who previously set the Electric Car Cannonball record in his Tesla, has now turned his focus to autonomous driving. His central question: How soon will cars be able to drive themselves coast to coast allowing us to take a nap in the back seat? I first met Alex Roy in 2018 at a private industry event south of Munich. He's one of a kind - colorful, smart and professional. You will enjoy his vivid first-hand account of the cannonball runs, both the triumphs and the reversals - like the time the team encountered a good old-fashioned midwestern thunderstorm in Indiana. How exactly did The Model S and the FSD system respond to that crush of water? Alex Roy, partner, New Industry Venture Capital on the Driving With Dunne podcast.

What are the industrial crown jewels of the future? Most of us can name two of them right away: Chips that power the brains behind everything, including AI. And batteries or energy storage systems. Batteries power not only EVs but have a much wider application in delivering energy to factories and countless military applications. There is a third one that might be just as crucial: magnets. Magnets are produced with materials derived from the processing of rare earths. Today, China has an abundance of rare earths. More importantly, China has a near monopoly on the processing of those rare earths. This leaves America and the West highly vulnerable. That's where an American company called Evolution comes in - their mission is to build complete processing capabilities in America for American industry. Joining me today to talk about the rare earth processing and magnet challenge is Dean Evans, co-founder at Evolution. They are already operating in Missouri and have sister companies in Korea. What's the central challenge and how soon will America be able to process rare earths and build its own magnets at scale?

What can we say for sure about China? Many of us can rattle off some incredible statistics. It is a manufacturing and technology powerhouse. China ran up an astonishing $1 trillion dollar surplus in 2024. China builds more EVs than all other countries combined. And China has enough capacity to supply total global demand for batteries. We know these facts. But what we know much less well is how to engage with Chinese business people in a productive way that leads to successful outcomes. That's been a giant black hole for many Western business people. Fortunately, a giant dose of help is on the way in the form of a tremendous new book by Ken Wilcox called The Chinese Business Conundrum: Ensuring Win-Win Doesn't Mean Western Companies Twice. Mr Wilcox, the former CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, also ran SVB's joint venture bank in China. He shares extremely valuable inside views of realities on the ground.

Europe's aim is to become a global leader in adopting next generation clean technologies. In the first phase, beginning in 2020, the focus was on meeting ambitious emission reductions goals. Four years later, the European Commission is making an important adjustment to its strategy. The new goal is to have Europe be a global leader in adopting and producing those technologies. They call it the Clean Industrial Deal. Some background: Up until very recently, Europe's climate goals were met by sourcing many advanced clean energy technologies from China, including solar panels and electric vehicles. European leaders quickly understood that it would be far better for companies within Europe to produce the clean technologies than to import them from China or other countries. Joining us today to walk us through the new era is Barbara Glowacka of the EU Commission. She advises leaders at the highest levels of power in the European Commission on energy and law.

Europe wants to go green in a hurry. China has EVs to help Europe achieve their goal faster. What's the problem? The problem is that too many Chinese cars are flooding into France, Germany and Italy And that is putting enormous pressure on Europe's auto industry. Making things worse, European brands' sales are skidding in China, which used to be their forever profit machines. VW is now talking about closing three plants and laying off tens of thousands. And we are not even in a recession. Joining me to make sense of the pressure - he calls it a schism - is Roger Atkins, founder of Electric Vehicles Outlook. How will Europe see things through from here? Roger will also share what he loves and what he loves much less about driving his all-electric ID Buzz, the retro bus from VW. Along the way, we will also learn how to say sh-t-show in Chinese. Yes, I promise you there is such a word.

One of the most significant limiters to EV adoption in America is the dreaded charging experience. Where do I find the nearest station? Wil, the chargers work? Do I need an app? Will I be safe sitting alone in my car for thirty minutes? Who can I call if things go wrong? In this episode, we learn from Christopher Balcom of Schneider Electric that improvements are on the way. Specifically, the mission is to simplify the charging experience by bringing several separate parts - the hardware, the software, the installer and the carmakers – together to form a seamless experience.