Macrocast

As the Merkel era is drawing to a close, we take the occasion of the federal elections on September 26th to take a good look at three macroeconomic challenges facing Germany and the ramifications for the rest of Europe : Deglobalisation risk, the European economic integration process and Green transition If you enjoy listening to Alphaville and Scorpions, you will also enjoy this podcast. Guest: Evelyn Herrmann, Bank of America Recommendation: Series of podcasts "Germany: Memories of a Nation", by Neil MacGregor (director of the British Museum) For BBC Radio 4 link https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04dwbwz/episodes/downloads Credits: Alphaville - "Forever Young" / Scorpions - "Wind of Change" All the other podcasts: https://www.axa-im.com/macrocast Recorded on September 9th, produced by AXA IM Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

As we relaunch macrocast after a hiatus of a few months and in conversational format, I was looking for someone who would help us to think through the noise and guide us in this post COVID world. I immediately thought of Jean Pisani-Ferry, who enlightens us with his wisdom and optimism. You will hear him in this podcast. Then I thought of Fleetwood Mac, in an equally hopeful but more musical vein. You'll hear them too. Guest : Jean Pisani-Ferry (https://twitter.com/pisaniferry) Recommendations : - Jean Pisani-Ferry : "Political Cleavages and Social Inequalities", Amory Gethin/Clara Martinez-Toledano/Thomas Piketty - Gilles Moëc : "The Price of Nostalgia, America’s Self-Defeating Economic Retreat", Adam S. Posen Credits : Fleetwood Mac - "Don't stop" Macrocast weekly newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/insights?p_r_p_categoryId=12673554 Recorded on June 8th, produced by Axa IM Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

If Gilles Moëc does not always shine by his optimism, for this last podcast of the season he dares a duet with Mr Blue Sky (ELO). Believe it or not, there is talk of a "forward guidance" that could provide economic agents with an explicit – albeit flexible – sequence for the fiscal stance across the next three to five years, leading to a solid and sustainable recovery. Credits Olivier Blanchard's paper from January 2013 : https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1301.pdf "Mr Blue Sky", ELO Macrocasta Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-fiscal-forward-guidance-needed/23818 Recorded on July 13th, produced by Axa Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

We don't know if David Bowie was a Democrat, but he is with Gilles Moëc today to talk about the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions" Act (HEROES). But is pumping up more pent-up demand a long term solution? On the monetary policy side, the Fed seem to be thinking hard about yield control. Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-us-policy-makers-looking-for-a-plan-b/23818 Credits : David Bowie "Heroes" Recorded on July 6th, produced by Axa Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Only a strong political stimulus seems to be able to shift from general emergency support to long-term demand management. With this in mind, the debate on how best to protect jobs will be key. To tackle this thorny issue, Gilles Moëc is supported this week by the eternal Bee Gees, who are as determined as ever to stay alive. Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-job-protection-and-demand-management/23818 Crédits : The Bee Gees "Stayin' Alive" Recorded on June 29th, produced by Axa Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

The success of the new TLTRO shows that pledging the governments’ balance sheet was certainly the right thing to do in the emergency, nevertheless the medium-term consequences of those guarantees need to be explored. Fortunately we will not be alone in this questioning. There was Genesis of course, always willing to "share his peace", but there was especially Apolline Menut. Good listening. Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-51-credit-guarantee-feedback-loop/23818 Credits : Genesis, "Supper's ready" Recorded on June 22nd, produced by Axa Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

To talk about money supply growth, Gilles Moëc once again invokes the 1970s. But this week music shares the top billing with Milton Friedman. And ABBA can shout it 3 times in a row, Milton knows what he's talking about when it comes to MONEY. Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-warning-shot/23818 Crédits : ABBA, "Money Money Money", Milton Friedman Speaks: Money and Inflation Recorded on June 15th, produced by Axa Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Jim Cramer is so excited about the recent U.S. dataflow that one of Bob Marley's is not too much to bring the tension down, even though there's still "So much trouble in the world'. Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-beyond-the-mechanical-rebound/23818 Crédits : Bob Marley & the Wailers "So much trouble in the world", Jim Cramer CNBC Recorded on June 8th, produced by Axa Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

When there is good news in Europe, and the "Next Generation" package is undoubtedly one, Gilles Moëc leaves it to Apolline Menut (Eurozone Economist at AXA IM) to announce it to you. To encourage the movement, John Lennon and Queen won't go amiss. Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-define-big-/23818 Crédits : John Lennon "Stand by me", Queen "Don't stop be now" Recorded on June 1st, produced by Axa Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

The Franco-German "Recovery Fund" proposal is a ray of light for the post-pandemic global economy, but it's already facing opposition that could spread in the next weeks. In the Us, the negative rate debate at the Fed is rising. Fortunately, the '70s are still with us to set the economy to music. Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-hamilton-has-not-sung-yet/23818 Crédits : Supertramp "If everyone was listening", Yes "Close to the Edge" Recorded on May 25th, produced by Axa Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

While the ECB could run out of ammunition much sooner than expected, David Page (Head of Macroeconomic Research at AXA IM) comes with good news from the UK ... About the weather Guest : David Page, Head of Macroeconomic Research (AXA IM) Contact : https://twitter.com/MoecGilles Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-big-figures-looking-smaller/23818 Credits : Jackson Browne, « Running on empty », Genesis, « Dancing with the moonlit knight » Recorded on May 18th, produced by Axa Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

The tension is rising in the UE after the GCC's ruling, as a matter of fact The Clash is (are) not far off. Further to the east, while the rebound began in March, it already appears to be fading. Aidan Yao will give us the stakes in the coming weeks for the Chinese Politburo Invitée : Aidan Yao, Senior China/Asia Economist (AXA IM) Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-principle-matter/23818 Crédits : The Clash "I fought the Law" Recorded on May 11th, produced by Axa Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Embark with Gilles and The Police in a time capsule in the early 50s. A podcast whose "flexibility" will undoubtedly please Christine Lagarde. Newsletter : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-the-limits-of-the-banking-channel/23818 Crédits : Christine Lagarde (ECB press conference 04/30/2020) / The Police "We were born in the 50's Recorded on May 4th, produced by Axa Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

As the post-confinement trajectories of European GDPs take shape, it appears increasingly likely that what started as a symmetrical shock, affecting all EU countries at the same time, is evolving towards lasting divergences. Answers with Gilles Moëc, Apolline Menut... And Lucio Dalla. Guest : Apolline Menut Find the Macrocast Newsletter below : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-looking-for-more-fire-power-already/23818 Crédits : Lucio Dalla, Anna e Marco, Lucio Dalla, 1979 / Emmanuel Macron (https://www.facebook.com/EmmanuelMacron/videos/277645803398665/) Recorded on 27 April, produced by Axa Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

While exits from lockdown are now on the horizon in Europe, the US are facing their addiction to oil. And what if the fight against global warming was the next victim of the pandemic? Answers from Gilles Moëc, Hugo Le Damany... And Neil Young Guest : Hugo Le Damany Find the Macrocast newsletter below : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/illusory-trade-offs/23818 Credits : Robert Kaplan, Balance of power, Bloomberg Markets & Finance / Neil Young, After the Gold Rush, After the Gold Rush, 1970 Recorded on 20 April 2020 Produced by AXA Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Did last week's Eurogroup meeting outline effective support for the most fragile member states? Beyond the EU, how are emerging markets coping with the crisis? Answers in the Macrocast, with unexpected insights straight from Abbey Road. Guest : Irina Topa-Serry, Senior Economist at AXA IM Find the Macrocast newsletter below : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-who-will-pay-/23818 Credits : You never give me money, The Beatles (Abbey Road, 1969) Poul M. Thomsen post : https://blogs.imf.org/2020/03/30/europes-covid-19-crisis-and-the-funds-response/ Recorded on 14 April 2020 Produced by AXA Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

While the United States is now in the eye of the hurricane after Asia and Europe, it is already time to prepare for the post-Covid 19 period. How fast should we expect a rebound once logistical impairment will be over? Find the Macrocast newsletter below : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-mutualise-or-trust-the-printing-press/23818 Recorded on 6 April 2020 Produced by AXA Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

For this first podcast episode, Gilles Moëc highlights ways to absorb the unavoidable rise in public debt beyond the massive QE response in the short run. Find the Macrocast newsletter below : https://www.axa-im.com/content/-/asset_publisher/alpeXKk1gk2N/content/macrocast-mutualise-or-trust-the-printing-press/23818 Recorded on 30 March 2020 Produced by AXA Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.