Market Matters from New York Life Investments

The themes pervading 2024 investment outlooks – Fed tightening, chance of recession, and market volatility – are little changed from the start of the year. But much in the economy has shifted. Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann, and Michael LoGalbo cover the signposts for their base case view of 2024.

The fates of the U.S. corporate sector and labor market are closely entwined, and in this cycle, labor hoarding by large companies has contributed to strong job creation and wage growth. As cost pressures mount for companies, though, can this dyamic continue? Tune in to the debate between Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann this week on the Market Matters podcast.

We are one year away from the 2024 U.S. election, an it’s not too early to consider it’s impact on portfolios. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann unpack their fundamental election year investment principles – and the politics might matter less than you think.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted for over a year, but with longer dated Treasury yields rising fast, markets may be in for a shift. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann unpack the relatively rare occurrence of today’s bear steepener, including what it means for interest rate-sensitive investments.

With geopolitical risk front and center, Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann consider the impacts of a potential oil shock on the global economy and investors’ opportunity sets across asset classes.

The last week – and the last few years – have shown that risks or shocks to investing are always possible. Lauren Goodwin hosts Alexandra Russo of Candriam to discuss how investors may take stock of the unforeseeable.

Fiscal and budget debates have been recurrent this year, yet monetary policy is usually front of mind for investors. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann check in on the investment implications of the federal government’s financial bill of health.

A government shutdown has been avoided, but investors may still face a “wall of worry”. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann discuss the recent bout of market indigestion and bright spots for investors.

As investors seek opportunities to end a volatile year, uncertainty can lend itself to positioning in the extremes: chasing narrow rallies, or sitting it out entirely. To help investors navigate this balance, Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann, and Michael LoGalbo focus on two questions: How can I participate in the AI boom? And is commercial real estate the next big risk?

As uncertainty about recession, inflation, and interest rates has increased, asset allocation decisions have become more difficult for many investors. But there are always opportunities, even as macro and market gears shift. The full multi-asset team at New York Life Investments joins this episode to present part 1 of their Q4 Outlook. Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann, and Michael LoGalbo identify and answer four key questions standing in the path of investors in the last quarter of the year.

In their Financial Futures special series, Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann host leaders from across New York Life to discuss approaches that help listeners prepare and pursue their financial futures their financial futures. This week, Lauren and Julia host Jose Barros, Chief Operating Officer of U.S. Distribution at New York Life Investments, to discuss how outcomes-based investing can refresh and investors’ approach to setting goals.

In their Financial Futures special series, Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann host leaders from across New York Life to discuss approaches that help listeners prepare and pursue their financial futures. This week, Lauren and Julia host Todd Taylor, Head of Retail Annuities at New York Life, to explore how investors use annuities as a part of a balanced set of financial tools.

In their Financial Futures special series, Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann host leaders from across New York Life to discuss approaches that help listeners prepare and pursue their financial futures. This week, Lauren and Julia kick off this series with special guest Amanda Kuhl, Head of Purchase Experience and previous Head of Life Products at New York Life, to dive into the role of life insurance in holistic financial health and achieving financial goals.

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) countries meet for a summit this week, prompting renewed questions about Dollar influence. Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann reprise their April episode discussing what exactly it takes for a country to build a reserve currency, and why they do not see the Chinese Renminbi as a credible competitor to the Dollar on a multi-decade timeline.

In the wake of July’s inflation data, the disinflation process seems well intact. Does inflation need to be at the forefront of investors’ minds anymore? Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann explore scenarios for the path of inflation over the next year, and what an inflation surprise – to the upside or downside – might mean for the markets.

Yields have moved meaningfully higher in the last week, but it’s not all because of the U.S. credit rating downgrade. This week, Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann discuss not just what the downgrade implies for U.S. economic health, but also how Treasury issuance and a decision by the Bank of Japan are pressuring financing costs higher.

Ongoing strikes, scheduled strikes, and high-stakes labor negotiations have swept headlines. Do they affect the big picture? Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann huddle to shed light on why this wave of labor negotiations has occurred, how it might impact economic outcomes in the next few months, and options for investors.

Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann welcome special guest Steve Friedman of MacKay Shields to debate the path of economic growth ahead. Can a “no landing” upside scenario for economic growth emerge – and what does that mean for inflation?

It’s the early days of the era of generative artificial intelligence (AI). Lauren Goodwin, Julia Hermann, and Michael LoGalbo discuss how their team is framing the potential impacts on AI on the investment landscape, whether we are in a bubble, and actionable investment considerations.

Some data suggests that the U.S. housing market is rebounding. But is this sustainable when affordability hasn’t improved? Lauren Goodwin and Julia Hermann dig into housing market activity, what it tells investors about the economy, and the investment opportunities that remain.