NAB FX Podcast

With unprecedented monetary & fiscal policy and the RBA increasingly positive about the recovery, but hampered by renewed lockdowns affecting large parts of Australia, Tapas Strickland (Director, Economics NAB) will dissect the economic outlook for both the Australian and International Economy. We will explore what the next steps in a recovery will look like and what economic risks you should take into consideration for your long term planning.

NAB’s Senior FX strategist Rodrigo Catril meets with our Group Economist Phin Ziebell to discuss the impact of the recent RBA meeting on the AUD. With the RBA sounding ever so slightly more hawkish, the AUD enjoyed some post meeting strength. However Rodrigo and Phin discuss why that rally was short lived and the impact that Central Banks will have on the currency through to the end of the year.

Phin Ziebell joins Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy, to discuss the volatility we have seen in the AUD post FOMC and what this means for our forecasts. With the AUD closing the month below 75 cents, Phin asks where this leaves NAB’s AUD forecasts. Ray discusses what occurred through June, including the AUD fall post FOMC and the impact of China clamping down on perceived speculation in the commodity market. Ray discusses his key takeaways for FY 21, stating it was a year of two halves with...

Phin Ziebell joins Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Strategist. Phin and Rodrigo discuss the post FOMC market volatility with Rodrigo highlighting the unwinding of USD short positioning as a big factor contributing to the post FOMC greenback appreciation. Phin and Rodrigo then touch on NAB’s outlook for the AUD where fundamentally not much has changed, the global growth outlook remains on a strong footing favouring buoyancy in commodity prices while domestically the strength of the economy and...

Phin Ziebell joins Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy. Phin asks Ray about the 2% sell off in the AUD post this week’s FOMC (Fed) meeting. Ray discusses the shift in expectations for US interest rates embedded in the FOMC’s so called ‘dot plot’ as being a key driver for this week’s USD strength and relate AUD weakness. Phin asks Ray about movement in other currencies against the USD, including the weakness of the EUR. Ray discusses the NAB (stronger) AUD forecasts as being maintained for Q3...

Phin Ziebell joins Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Strategist, in an FX discussion touching on last week’s brief AUD fall below 77c and its recovery back above the figure post US nonfarm payrolls late on Friday. Rodrigo notes that ahead of the FOMC meeting next week, speculation around Fed QE tapering talk is supporting the USD, but at the same time elevated commodity prices remain a solid fundamental force favouring a stronger AUD. Phin and Rodrigo also discuss COVID vaccination as a driver for...

Phin Ziebell joins Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy and Jarryd Freeman, Director Financial Markets for this week’s podcast. Ray describes May as having been an extremely low volatility month for AUD/USD (in fact the narrowest monthly range since November 2019). Notwithstanding that NAB’s Fair Value Models and related commodity price strength suggest the AUD should have been much higher, Ray notes that May has traditionally been a weak month for the AUD (and June a stronger one). Phin asks...

Phin Ziebell joins Rodrigo Catril Senior FX Strategist. Rodrigo discusses recent AUD/USD tight trading ranges, but then offers interesting dynamic from fresh EUR and CNY appreciation which favour the AUD breaking higher, in line with NAB Forecasts.Looking at what is coming, next week’s Australia Q1 GDP is likely to provide another piece of evidence supporting a robust economic recovery. NAB has pencilled in a Q1 GDP print of 1.0% q/q, with much of the strength to come from an ongoing...

In this week’s FX and Your Business Podcast, Phin Ziebell talks to NAB’s Head of FX Strategy, Ray Attrill, about latest currency market developments, the significance of commodity prices – the sharp run up in iron ore price in particular – and what to look out of in coming days. Ray stresses that volatility in the iron ore price is often not a reliable guide to the performance of the AUD (but that he still thinks the AUD will be higher in coming months largely because of commodity prices!)....

Phin Ziebell talks about inflation and FX implications with Rodrigo Catril Senior FX Strategist and Chris O’Brien Senior Markets Manager. Phin and Rodrigo dissect the factors driving inflation higher including supply chain disruptions, pent up demand and base effects. The two also discuss the distinction between Demand Pull and Cost Pull Inflation. The role of Central Banks is also analysed including the debate around new tolerance for higher inflation along with implications for the USD and...

Phin Ziebell speaks to Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Currency Strategist and Mat Hosking Senior Markets Manager. Rodrigo discusses the AUD’s performance in April, touching on the AUD’s inability to sustainably break above .7800 on three occasions during the month. Phin and Rodrigo also talk about the US FOMC's position on stimulus and QE tapering. Looking ahead Rodrigo notes positive sentiment on commodity demand as a potential driver for AUD strength. Mat Hosking joins the conversation...

Phin Ziebell speak with Ray Attrill, NAB Head of FX Strategy and Haley Paul, Senior Markets Manager. Ray discusses NAB & BNZ's strategy team being awarded Bloomberg's top spot in a recent global poll in accuracy of forecasts. Ray discusses NAB's current currency views on the AUD and what the risks to the forecast are. In particular, risk sentiment and commodity prices. Ray discusses the Chinese economy, credit growth and what that could mean for their growth and the flow on to commodity...

Phin Ziebell, interviews Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Strategist and Alun Campbell, Senior Markets Manager. Phin and Rodrigo discuss the recent AUD break higher and NAB’s near term outlook for the currency. Rodrigo noted US Treasury yields, Australian Economic data and commodity prices, as key AUD supporting factors. Phin then talks with Alun about client’s general feedback with Alun noting importer and exporter activity, clients’ views on the AUD and market volatility. Phin and Alun finish by...

Johann Kurzbock and Ruud Van Henten from the NAB Markets Team, speak with Alan Oster, NAB Group Economist and Drew Bradford, Executive General Manager, NAB Markets about the Economic and Financial Markets Landscape 12 Months on from the onset of the COVID Pandemic in this Webinar recorded 15 April 2021.

Phin Ziebell speak to Ray Attrill NAB Head of FX Strategy. Ray reviews a relatively quiet week for currency markets with the AUD gaining about .30 percent on the USD. Ray discussed US economic performance and the rise in US Bond Yields as a driver of USD strength, contrasting this against positive risk sentiment as a driver of USD Weakness. Phin asks Ray about the performance of the Eurozone’s vaccination rollout and its effect on the EUR. Phin and Ray discuss this week’s upcoming economic...

In this week’s FX and Your Business Podcast, Phin Ziebell speaks to Ray Attrill, NAB’s Head of FX Research, about last week’s fall to new year to date lows in the AUD/USD at 0.7535 and its subsequent rebound. Ray discusses recent strong US economic data, US equity market strength and bond market volatility and how this is playing out in FX, as well as anticipation of large scale US fiscal stimulus, including proposed multi-trillion dollar infrastructure spending. Ray and Phin also discuss...

Phin Ziebell speaks to Ray Attrill NAB Head of FX Research about what happened in FX markets last week and what is coming up this week. Ray discusses NAB's forecasts for Q1 as being largely consistent with current market levels save for EUR weakness related to COVID infection control and vaccine rollouts. Ray cites New Zealand's economic performance as as an example of how Europe may bounce back in Q2 and beyond as the control the COVID Virus. Phin and Ray discuss Q2 currency forecasts and...

Lucia La Bella, Executive NAB Business Markets Interviews Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Strategist on the New Zealand Dollar and the AUD/NZD cross. Lucia asks Rodrigo about AUD/NZD volatility since December. Rodrigo discusses the performance of the cross based on Australia's economic recovery relative to New Zealand. Lucia also asks Rodrigo about recent NZ Government housing policy changes and their affect on the cross. Rodrigo also discusses NAB's forecasts for the NZD.

Phin Ziebell speaks with Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Strategist and Kaine Perry, Senior Markets Manager. Rodrigo touches on last week’s Australian Labour Markets data and what that may mean for the AUD and the RBA, plus the Fed's inflation forecasts and market expectations for the Fed funds rate. Phin asked Rodrigo about COVID resurgences globally and their potential effect on NAB’s forecast for the AUD. Kaine Perry discussed bond market moves and what that has meant for commercial borrowers.

Lucia La Bella Executive NAB Markets, Interviews Rodrigo Catril Senior Currency Strategist about NAB's changed forecast for the Yen. Rodrigo discusses the AUD's rise against the Yen since march last year, NABs view on future directions and risks to this view.