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Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead.

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead.
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Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead.






Trump pours cold water on trade hopes

Monday 23rd September 2019 Hopes of a quick resolution to the US China trade dispute seem as unlikely as ever, with President Trump dismissing the idea of a partial deal and China cancelling a trade delegation to meet US farmers. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the risk-off market reaction, with equities falling, bond yields rising and safe-haven currencies on the rise. They also discuss attitudes to the European economy and whether Brexit optimism was over-egged last week....


Will jobless numbers push the RBA to cut sooner?

Friday 20th September 2019 There’s a rising expectation that the RBA will cut interest rates at their next meeting, following disappointing employment numbers yesterday. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Alex Stanley why the numbers were so concerning. There’s also discussion on central bank decisions in Japan, Switzerland and the UK, the latest OECD forecast downgrades and the Fed’s third day of liquidity injections into the US money markets. Why is this happening and is it a cause for concern?


Fed turns hawkish, bank liquidity problems continue, oil slides further

Thursday 19th September 2019 It didn’t take long for the US President to attack the Federal Reserve as it cut rates but didn’t give a clear indication of further cuts or promise the return of QE. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the Fed’s reasoning, the market reaction and the influence of a second liquidity shortfall in the overnight money markets. They also look at the Saudi oil situation, with prices falling, perhaps because a military response against Iran looks unlikely....


Oil slides as production returns

Wednesday 18th September 2019 Oil prices fell sharply today on the news that Saudi oil production will be back in full by the end of the month. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether we’ll see oil return to previous highs or has the incident created a risk premium. They also discuss US industrial production numbers and the German ZEW survey, as well as the NY Fed’s first overnight repo agreement for 10 years, as funding rates rose as high as 10%. Plus, a preview of tomorrow’s Fed policy...


The Saudi aftermath - winners and losers

Tuesday 17th September 2019 Brent Crude rose 20 percent at the market open on Monday morning, the biggest single move since the invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the lasting impact of the strike, which could see oil prices higher for months to come. The issue goes beyond supply to questions of ongoing political repercussions. They also discuss who will be the winners and losers and the effect on that other area of uncertainty, the US China trade war....


Oil attack hits supplies and Iran relations

Monday 16th September 2019 Attacks on the world’s largest oil refinery has hit global supplies hard. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the impact on oil prices and how the accompanying political repercussions could hit other asset classes. On the positive side, US retails sales data and consumer sentiment surprised on the upside at the end of last week and there’s hope of an interim US China trade deal which could lead to a lifting of tariffs on China’s imports of US agricultural...


QE is back at the ECB

Friday 13th September 2019 The ECB is to reintroduce quantitative easing, along with a small cut in rates and more TLTROs. NAB’s Gavin Friend explains the measures they are taking and the market reaction. There’s been a strong reaction on President Trump’s twitter stream, with the measures being used as another opportunity for Fed-bashing. Meanwhile, there’s been a small olive branch offered to China, with a two-week delay in the raising of tariffs next month, adding small hope to a trade...


Draghi’s (almost) last stand

Thursday 12th September 2019 Mario Draghi is easing his way out of the ECB tonight (Australian time), literally. After this, he has one more meeting before Christine Lagarde takes over, but a stimulus boost today is widely anticipated. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis what we can expect beyond a simple rate cut. There’s also word on NAB’s revised expectations for cuts from the RBA, with one expected later this year and one early in 2020. And with producer prices rising is a cut from the...


Bond Yields Rising, No Bazooka on the Way

Wednesday 11th September 2019 For listeners of a certain vintage, the title to today’s podcast is a homage to Creedence Clearwater Revival. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, globally yields are on the rise again as it seems the ECB will backtrack on the ‘big bazooka’ of measures foreshadowed. Additionally, Germany is unlikely to add stimulus just yet, preferring an expansionary balanced budget, however that’s achieved. Locally, the NAB business survey continues to paint a...


Bonds sold off, Boris’ no-deal stymied

Tuesday 10th September 2019 Bond yields have paved down across the world, driven by a sell-off in German bunds. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it relates to a growing expectation that the ECB measures later this week will be a little less bazooka-like. Data out in the last 24 hours has been largely positive – UK GDP was better than expected, German exports are up, consumer borrowing is up in the US and home loans rose sharply in Australia. And with the UK parliament now out of action till late...


Trade war impacts as ECB prepares to pull out the stops

Monday 9th September 2019 US payrolls numbers disappointed a little on Friday and China’s trade numbers over the weekend demonstrated what impact the trade war was having. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why there’s been little market reaction to the latest data, even as Larry Kudlow intimated that reaching a conclusion could take a decade. Brexit could be over in a month, or four months. However, it gets resolved, today could be an important one in the unfolding farce-cum-tragedy. It’s...


Talks back on, bonds sell off

Friday 6th September 2019 There’s been big moves on equities and bonds today as talks between the US and China appear to be back on. That’s created a slight risk-on mood, helped also by stronger than expected non-manufacturing ISM numbers in the US. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether the markets will be as responsive to the release of non-farm payrolls numbers tonight. They also discuss what to expect from Jerome Powell when he talks later, given that central bankers seem to have...


US dollar weaker on Hong Kong, UK and Italy’s positive news

Thursday 5th September 2019 The US dollar is weaker today on the back of positive developments in other parts of the world. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Tapas Strickland, the unrest in Hong Kong could be easing, a no-deal Brexit might be avoided, and Italy’s government is settling into place. Add Australia’s GDP numbers yesterday, that weren’t as bad as expected, and you can see why the US dollar is weaker. Equities are much higher too, with one Fed member back to talking-up a half...


US manufacturing shows cracks, Brexit delays and Aussie GDP today

Wednesday 4th September 2019 Very soon it’s likely that the UK parliament will take the first step to delaying Brexit, allowing for yet more negotiating time with the EU. Ass Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Gavin Friend, the idea of another election is also likely to be delayed, to the pound could face another month or so of uncertainty. Meanwhile, manufacturing numbers from the US have shown a serious downturn, clearly an impact of the worsening trade war. Could this be enough to spur the...


Is a pre-Brexit election looming?

Tuesday 3rd September 2019 Boris Johnson stood outside No. 10 Downing Street earlier, saying he didn’t want an election before the Brexit deadline. But could that be a signal that he’s going to call one anyway. Phil Dobbie discusses the potential with NAB’s Tapas Strickland, on what will be a busy day for British politics. There will be less excitement around the RBA’s meeting today, unless they decide to cut rates, but interest in retail numbers and expectations for tomorrow’s GDP read. And...


New month, new tariffs, new uncertainty

Monday 2nd September 2019 In the US new tariffs on Chinese imports kicked in over the weekend, with the usual accompanying notes from the US President via Twitter. It happens as consumer sentiment falls sharply. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the impact on US manufacturing and rate cuts by the Fed. Meanwhile, the Europe has been hit by uncertainty (already) from the new Italian coalition government, whilst the pound reflects a shaky week for Brexit. There’s more data...


China’s olive branch supports risk-on mood

Friday 30th August 2019 In the US, the dollar, equities and bond yields have all risen on the news that China would rather talk than retaliate, as the latest increase in tariffs from the US kicks in this weekend. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the switch in sentiment, which has also been helped by what’s being called the Conte 2.0 government in Italy. The only sore point has been weakening inflation in Germany, ahead of Eurozone CPI later, and the reaction to yesterday’s...


Boris, proroguing his way to Brexit

Thursday 29th August 2019 UK politics has turned even more toxic with Prime Minister Boris Johnson suspending parliament from September 12th, for five weeks. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Gavin Friend in London, the pound had a sharp reaction but bounced back half-way, perhaps because of hope that the PM will reach a deal with the EU, or that rebel MPs will move swiftly to stop Boris in his tracks. All this makes Italian politics seem a little more stable, with a government likely to...


Markets fall after yesterday’s false hope

Wednesday 28th August 2019 Markets have taken a hit as much of yesterday’s optimism subsides. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, when President Trump said at the G7 that China were ready to cut back to the negotiating table, it appears that was news to China. That’s raised tensions still higher, resulting in falls in equities and significant drops in bond yields. We’ve also seen a return of the inversion in 2yr – 10 year yields. There is some positive news around today...


Turn around on trade war but downturn in Germany

Tuesday 27th August 2019 The markets have done a complete u-turn overnight on the back of positive news on the US China trade talks and some wins from the G7 summit, including proposals to reform WTO rules and a potential US Iran meeting. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the headlines that have driven increases in US equities and the US dollar. Phil Dobbie asks him whether it could all backfire it the US President changes his mood once he’s off European soil. Certainly, markets are being...