Native Angelino with Tom Levine

Consider the impact of mobilizing a love for music, Big Data, and community engagement to increase voter registration and turnout. Meet Emily White, a Founder of Collective Entertainment and the #iVoted Concerts and Festivals: A passionate advocate on behalf of democracy, committed to increasing new voter registration and civic engagement. #iVoted is a non-partisan 501(c)3 non-profit founded by entrepreneur Emily White, Mike Luba, and Pat Sansone of Wilco / The Autumn Defense. #iVoted increases voter turnout by producing record-breaking events & activating entertainment venues to let fans in who show a selfie from outside their polling place or at home with a blank & unmarked ballot. Cracking The Code - From Music Venue to Voting Booth She has cracked the code - demographics and micro-targeting of music fans which pairs nicely with micro-targeting of voters and political engagement efforts. Emily is a Visiting Fellow at Johns Hopkins and a planning committee member of the 2024 Elijah E. Cummings Democracy & Freedom Festival. The Musicians Roadmap In 2020, the first edition of How to Build A Sustainable Music Career and Collect All Revenue Streams was published in conjunction with a podcast. The methods and techniques described have received widespread acclaim. Episode Notes 00:30 - Introduction 02:25 - Who is Emily White? 05:15 - Grandma and Grandpa White - Swimming and Special Olympics 07:20 - History of #iVoted 16:30 - Living Above the Politics - Elijah E. Cummings Democracy and Freedom Festival 23:25 - How To Build A Sustainable Music Career 26:20 - Mining Revenue from Big Data 29:30 - Prince - Musical Genius and Entrepreneur 33:35 - Your Website, Pre-Orders and Bundles 38:05 - A Billion Streams 39:50 - The Living Wage for Musicians Act 48:40 - Know Your Numbers and Your Art 53:05 - Top Trending Artists - Not Who You Think 59:00 - Blockchain, AI, IP, and Smart Contracts 1:01:05 - The Cellist with 1 million followers Mentioned in the Episode We discuss streaming revenue and the range of payment per stream. As an example, Taylor Swift was mentioned and the proper estimate of 2023 revenue is $100mm on 26.1 billion streams. That’s a very big number and a minor correction to comments made during our discussion. Websites beatBread - “Own your music, fund your career.” bandcamp - “an online record store and music community” Podcasts Sports Management Olympic medalists Anthony Ervin and Jay Litherland Music Zoe Keating, The Dresden Dolls, Amanda Palmer, Noel Gallagher, Kinto Soul, Certified Trapper Venue No Studios , interior design by Everick Brown Photo of Emily White - Credit: Adrian Buckmaster About The Podcast Host Tom Levine, leveraging a 25-year tenure in capital markets, leads Zero Hour Group and Native Angelino Real Estate, offering a suite of consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services. An alumnus of USC Marshall School of Business and the Claremont Colleges - Pitzer College campus with a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he holds a CADRE broker's license (#02052698) and the designation certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors. Have a challenging transaction? Let's discuss. I consult on a range of transaction types and deal structures. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live

Let's Talk Diabetes and Prevention 38 million Americans have diabetes (about 1 in 10). Approximately 98 million American adults -- that's 1 in 3, have prediabetes. More than 80% don't know they have it. The CDC reports that 18% of adolescents have prediabetes, and it's on the rise. Episode Notes 00:15 - Who is Lara Al Dandachi? 01:12 - Increase in Obesity and Diabetes 03:40 - Type 1 vs Type 2 05:30 - Body Mass Index (BMI) 07:10 - GLP-1 Antagonists - Ozempic, Wegovy 11:38 - Ozempic and Pregnancy 14:35 - IMPORTANT - Diabetes and Prediabetes 16:45 - What are Beta Cells? 22:35 - Food and Drink to Eliminate From Your Diet 24:15 - Ultra-Processed Foods 26:45 - Mediterranean Diet 28:05 - Putting Diabetes into Remission What Is Prediabetes? Prediabetes is a serious health condition. Blood sugar levels are higher than normal, but not yet high enough to be diagnosed as type 2 diabetes. With prediabetes, action is the best medicine. American Diabetes Association What is Diabetes? About 38 million Americans have diabetes (about 1 in 10), and approximately 90-95% have type 2 diabetes. Type 2 diabetes most often develops in people over age 45, but more and more children, teens, and young adults are also developing it. Preventing Type 2 Diabetes If you have prediabetes, losing a small amount of weight if you're overweight and getting regular physical activity can lower your risk for developing type 2 diabetes. A small amount of weight loss means around 5% to 7% of your body weight, just 10 to 14 pounds for a 200-pound person. Regular physical activity means getting at least 150 minutes a week of brisk walking or a similar activity. That's just 30 minutes a day, five days a week. Tests for Diabetes and Prediabetes Your doctor will have you take one or more of the following blood tests to confirm the diagnosis: A1C Test The A1C test measures your average blood sugar level over the past 3 months. An A1C below 5.7% is normal, between 5.7 and 6.4% indicates you have prediabetes, and greater than 6.5% indicates you have diabetes. Fasting Blood Sugar Test This measures your blood sugar after an overnight fast (not eating). A fasting blood sugar level of 99 mg/dL or lower is normal, 100 to 125 mg/dL indicates you have prediabetes, and greater than 126 mg/dL indicates you have diabetes. GLP-1 Antagonists - Ozempic, Wegovy, Byetta, Rybelsus This class of drugs is commonly called glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonists. These drugs mimic the action of a hormone called glucagon-like peptide 1. When blood sugar levels start to rise after someone eats, these drugs stimulate the body to produce more insulin. The extra insulin helps lower blood sugar levels. Lower blood sugar levels are helpful for controlling type 2 diabetes. But it's not clear how the GLP-1 drugs lead to weight loss. Doctors do know that GLP-1s appear to help curb hunger. These drugs also slow the movement of food from the stomach into the small intestine.As a result, you may feel full faster and longer, so you eat less. Along with helping to control blood sugar and boost weight loss, GLP-1s and SGLT-2 inhibitors seem to have other major benefits. Research has found that some drugs in these groups may lower the risk of heart disease, such as heart failure, stroke and kidney disease. Source: The Mayo Clinic Guest Biography - Lara Al-Dandachi Lara Al-Dandachi is the Nutrition Director of the PRO (Program to Reduce Obesity) within the Division of Endocrinology at David Geffen School of Medicine and UCLA Health. Lara is a Registered Dietitian Nutritionist (RDN), Certified Diabetes Educator, and Obesity specialist who cares for patients in UCLA Health's Gonda Diabetes Center. She is one of very few Registered Dietitians in the nation who are triple board certified in diabetes care specialty CDCES, advanced diabetes management BC-ADM, and obesity and weight management subspecialty (CSOWM). Medical Board Certifications American Association of...

Annie Logue joins the Native Angelino Podcast with Tom Levine Listen now | Annie Logue From Wall Street to Author of Day Trading For Dummies | Stories of Henry Blodget’s fall, Liar's Poker, and tips for freelance writers. Stories and Advice for Aspiring Freelancers Ann Logue (rhymes with vogue) started her career as a Wall Street financial analyst covering the healthcare sector. She followed a traditional path - undergrad studied economics, earned an MBA in finance, and joined an investment bank. Then, an awakening and a career change. She is now a full-time freelance writer of six books and hundreds of articles. She regularly shares her witty thoughts on The Whatever Years (Substack). We have known each other for decades and reminisce on the ‘old days,’ including stories of WIRED Magazine, Henry Blodget’s fall from grace and reemergence at Business Insider, and the early days of the internet (Netcom, Netscape, Drugstore.com), and the dot-com bubble. Her list of ‘must have’ books for every aspiring Wall Street trainee is in the notes below. Hint: Michael Lewis’s Liar’s Poker is at the top. What is her favorite bookstore? Unabridged Bookstore in Chicago, IL. Table Of Contents 00:25 From Wall Street to Author of 6 books 7:30 Day Trading for Dummies 11:30 Visions of Becoming a WIRED staff writer 12:50 Her First Paid Clip - the New York Times 16:15 Liar’s Poker and Other Books to Have on Your Shelf 17:00 Salomon Brothers 20:30 Disruption - Publishing Industry, Real Estate, Wall St 26:30 Cost of Education 40:40 Advice on Starting A Freelance Writing Career 44:25 Writing Advice - Practical Tips 53:04 Henry Blodget 1:02:10 Annie’s Favorite Bookstore 1:03 My Netcom (NETC) Story This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live

Joining the Native Angelino Podcast from Kyoto, Japan, Professor Linus Yamane speaks eloquently about the lessons the United States can learn from the Japanese economy. Heavy government debt levels restrain the ability of policymakers to correct problems even in light of obvious trends. An aging population, a declining population, increasing wealth disparity and education inequality pressure the social security system. What policy prescriptions are available to ensure the proper functioning and availability of the system for future generations? He correctly predicts (1:08 min) the interest rate hike by the Japan’s central bank. The first rise in 17 years and a major policy shift. The social security system is analyzed at the 17:35 mark. Update Bloomberg, Weekend Reading, March 23, 2024 It was a big week for central banks, replete with surprises, told-you-so’s and new projections about where monetary policy is headed the world over. The Swiss National Bank, citing progress on inflation, became the first among global peers to cut interest rates… …the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate regime, the world’s last. The radical policymaking tool had been adopted to encourage bank lending, spur demand and stem disinflation. In the US, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5% as policymakers maintained their projections for three rate cuts this year if inflation continues its retreat. But after a couple of bumps on the path back to 2%, there’s a chance the Fed could drop one of those cuts. Bio: Professor Yamane is a Professor of Economics at Pitzer College in Claremont, California. He joined the Pitzer faculty in 1988, and is currently on sabbatical (2023-2024). His research interests include the Japanese Economy, Labor Economics, Econometrics and Macroeconomics. He attended Yale University (MA, MPhil, PhD)and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (BS). Additional Episodes The Proposed Sitzer-Burnett Settlement Is Compass just Redfin on Steroids? The Race Between Education and Technology About The Author And Podcast Host Tom Levine Tom Levine is an LA native and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, the Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics. Following a 25 year career in capital markets, he founded Zero Hour Group in 2014. The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, valuation and real estate services. Serving individuals, family offices, institutions and professional investors. “We solve complex problems. Have a difficult strategic issue, or a real estate sale that requires fresh ideas? Please schedule a a consultation”. Native Angelino Real Estate, established 2017, for residential, commercial and investment related transactions. Tom Levine is real estate consultant, broker and certified Short Sale and Forclosure specialist under the National Association of Realtors. (CADRE #2052698) The Native Angelino Podcast is underwritten and produced in conjunction with the Zero Hour Group. “From a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics, and other strange things. Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas, and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics. L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon." Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes. Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live

Almost a year ago, New York Community Bank (NYSE: NYCB) acquired Signature Bank's assets as a fresh banking crisis had emerged almost overnight. The fallout from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank wreaked havoc on financial markets and raised fears of a 2008 scenario. Over the past week, those fears have again come to life. NYCB issued a dismal earnings report, followed by a set of questionable disclosures. The stock tumbled, and commercial real estate values are again in question. With more write-offs and loan losses surely to come, why are many of the S&P Real Estate Sector fund components showing signs of life and stock price momentum? We pose this question to our guest, Katie Stockton, of Fairlead Funds. Fairlead recently added The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) to their portfolio based on proprietary research utilizing technical analysis. Mortgage rates, which were in the 2-3% range during Covid, have recently retreated from the eight percent level and are bouncing between 6.5 and 7%. The stock market has reached new highs, unemployment is low, and job creation is strong. What comes next? What would John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Funds, comment if he were alive today? Would he continue to advocate for long-term investing in low-cost index-related funds? Yes. What does our guest, Katie Stockton, a Chartered Market Technician, have to say about current market conditions? Let's find out. Technical analysis is a methodology using charts and trends for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Additionally, momentum and relative strength.1 Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements (usually to analyze the business's assets, liabilities and earnings); health; and competitors and markets.2 Guest Katie Stockton, CMT is Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies, LLC, an independent research firm and investment advisor focused on technical analysis. Prior to forming Fairlead Strategies, Katie spent more than 20 years on Wall Street providing technical research and advice to institutional investors. Most recently, she served as Chief Technical Strategist for BTIG and Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners. She also worked for technical strategy teams at Morgan Stanley and Wit Soundview. CNBC Fast Money, January 24, 2024 With help from the Fairlead Strategies team, Katie provides research and consulting services to institutions and individuals, and she is the portfolio manager for the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK). Katie received her Chartered Market Technician (CMT®) designation in 2001, and later served as Vice President of the CMT Association from 2012 to 2016. For several years, she has been honored by The Technical Analyst, a U.K. based publication, including an award in 2022 for Best Cryptocurrency Research. Katie graduated with honors from the University of Richmond with a BSBA, and she now serves on the business school’s Executive Advisory Council. She is a member of the Endowment Investment Committee for her church. Katie frequently shares her views on CNBC and other financial news networks. Jack Bogle CNBC, Cramer, Obit, Jack Bogle was despised and he loved it Jack Bogle Shares the Investment Lessons of a Lifetime John Bogle wikipedia John Bogle remarks to CFA Institute, May 23, 2017 John Bogle advice About The Author And Podcast Host Tom Levine Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, the Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics. Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014. The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, valuation and real estate services. Serving individuals, family offices, institutions and professional investors. Native Angelino Real Estate, established 2017, for residential,...

In this episode, we review the state of the U.S stock market from the perspective of charts and trends —— technical analysis. Our guest, Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies, is one of the most talented and respected technical analysts working in financial markets. She will mention the term “Fibonacci retracement,” which is a tool derived from an Italian mathematician’s work in 1202 and first discovered by Indian scholars in 200 BC. The pattern can be found many places in nature, such as in the spiral of a pine cone, the arrangement of seeds in a sunflower, the branching of a tree, the shape of a seashell, and even in a DNA molecule. With Katie as portfolio manager, Fairlead has recently launched a “Tactical Sector ETF” under the symbol TACK. Fairlead Strategies employs a systematic approach to technical analysis focused on the identification of important trends and support & resistance levels. Mathematically based tools facilitate tactical market timing and positioning. Technical analysis is a methodology using charts and trends for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Additionally, momentum and relative strength. Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements (usually to analyze the business's assets, liabilities and earnings); health; and competitors and markets. Katie Stockton, CMT is Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies, LLC, an independent research firm and investment advisor focused on technical analysis. Prior to forming Fairlead Strategies, Katie spent more than 20 years on Wall Street providing technical research and advice to institutional investors. Most recently, she served as Chief Technical Strategist for BTIG and Chief Market Technician at MKM Partners. She also worked for technical strategy teams at Morgan Stanley and Wit Soundview. With help from the Fairlead Strategies team, Katie provides research and consulting services to institutions and individuals, and she is the portfolio manager for the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK). Katie received her Chartered Market Technician (CMT®) designation in 2001, and later served as Vice President of the CMT Association from 2012 to 2016. For several years, she has been honored by The Technical Analyst, a U.K. based publication, including an award in 2022 for Best Cryptocurrency Research. Katie graduated with honors from the University of Richmond with a BSBA, and she now serves on the business school’s Executive Advisory Council. She is a member of the Endowment Investment Committee for her church. Katie frequently shares her views on CNBC and other financial news networks. About The Author And Podcast Host Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014. The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services. Services are offered nationwide and across a variety of sectors. The firm's clients range from family offices and high net worth individuals to institutions and professional investors. Real Estate related transactions are brokered through our subsidary firms, Native Angelino Real Estate and WEHO Realtor. Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, the Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he is a certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors. Podcast The Native Angelino Podcast is underwritten and produced in conjunction with the Zero Hour Group, a consulting and strategy firm, parent to 1929, Native Angelino Real Estate, and associated real estate assets. Native Angelino description found on iTunes: “From a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics,...

Cathy Wood is a warrior. Perhaps with the wrong battle plan. She is a general - intelligent, seasoned, and committed to the cause. Yet, a war of attrition only works if the army (in this case, her investors) have the staying power for prolonged battles with an unknown endpoint. She catches falling knifes, averages down, and counts on her investors having unlimited patience and staying power. To catch a falling knife is a phrase used to describe buying a stock that is falling dramatically in hopes of picking the bottom. It is a risky investment strategy, often akin to gambling. The danger in trying to catch a falling knife is that the stock will continue to drop. The phrase is a metaphor - literally, you may get cut and bloodied trying to catch a falling knife. If one buys a share of stock at $100 and it falls by 50% to $50, it must go up by 100% to reach the breakeven point. Think through that. The Ark Invest Management flagship fund, Ark Innovation ETF (symbol: ARKK), is down 51% year to date (YTD) at $47.13 per share. For comparison purposes, the NASDAQ Composite Index is down 22% YTD. Over the trailing 5 year period the NASDAQ is up 100% and ARKK is up 82%. For her strategy to be successful she must be able to hang on through the lows, purchase additional shares on the way down, and have greater inflows of funds than outflows over the time horizon. Averaging down is an investment strategy, which in the extreme is known as “catching a falling knife”, that involves a stock owner purchasing additional shares of a previously initiated investment after the price has dropped. Assuming the stock turns around, this ensures a lower breakeven point for the stock position and higher gains in dollar terms (compared to the gains if the position was not averaged down).1 To reiterate the key elements to a successful strategy of averaging down: * The investor has the funds for additional purchases. * The stock eventually turns around and moves higher. * The investment horizon is long enough to wait for the turnaround. Currently, roughly 50% of S&P 500 stocks are down at least 50% from their highs. Many stocks in the NASDAQ and smaller capitalization indices are down far more. It is not uncommon for a bottom to occur when 70% of all stocks are down 50% or more. We are not there yet. From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 has retested the +/- 4160 level numerous times. Currently, 4132 and facing the headwinds of inflation, rising interest rates, and war in Europe. Have we seen the bottom, such that the Ark Invest (Cathy Wood) strategy will prove successful? Bear market rallies will occur, but I suspect we have not yet seen the bottom. It’s possible to win the war, but be prepared for battle weariness and uncertainty. Cathie Wood buys stocks like someone who just started yesterday, says Jim Cramer Cramers comments were aired on February 17, 2022 and are worth watching again. He is not shy of hyperbole nor controversy. Yet, this time he outlines clearly a professional money managers required skillset and where Cathy Wood falls short. Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett describe the current market mania “People who know nothing about stocks being advised by stockbrokers who know even less”, April 30, 2022. Mohamed El-Erian updates thoughts on the interest rate environment - April 29, 2022 Today, yields on Treasury Bonds at the 5, 10 and 30 year maturity breached 3%. It is as much a psychological barrier as a practical one given that 30 year mortgage rates are above 5% already. The probability of recession is increasing. The only real questions left are when will the economy slow significantly, how bad will it be, and for how long will it last. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet this week and is widely expected to increase interest rates by 1/2% (50 basis points). My instinct puts the probability of a 50bps rise at 60%, 25bps at 20% or 75bps at 20%. About The Author And Podcast Host Following a 25 year...

Overcoming Adversity… …the title of a podcast I recorded during the worst of Covid. I am intrigued by certain individuals' drive and resilience as they rise to great heights, despite being challenged with immense hurdles. In that podcast (listen here), I spoke with two athletes: Asante Cleveland, a former NFL tight-end who played with the New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, and the San Diego Chargers, and with Lindsey Dare Shoop, an Olympic gold medalist in rowing, world champion, coach, speaker, and author. Asante's career came to an early conclusion as a result of injury. I was impressed by his drive to achieve, his story of making it to the Patriots, and the subsequent inner strength he demonstrated post-injury. If a young man in his mid-20’s could hold his head high after a career ending injury, I certainly could manage a career transition after age 50. The Mind Of A Champion - A Family Affair In this episode, I speak with Asante's parents (Javetta and Allen). I was interested in discussing the elements of nature versus nurture. To find out at what point they knew he had exceptional athletic talent. To ask, "Did they prepare and/or push him toward athletics, or did he naturally gravitate to sport and football?" (Lindsey's story will be told in a forthcoming episode). On the nature side of the equation, although both father and son wanted to play college basketball, they played college football, and each eventually made it to the National Football League (NFL). Asante’s mother let me know that NFL also stands for “Not For Long” and that she was intent on doing whatever she could to prepare him for life after the league. The senior Mr. Cleveland played for the Dallas Cowboys and roomed briefly with Tony Dorsett during the Tom Landry coaching era. The son huddled with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and was coached by Bill Belichick. In this episode, you will hear one family's story of pulling together to achieve goals, never forgetting that what is most important is to excel in school, remain humble, loyal to family, and always act with integrity and purpose. About The Author And Podcast Host Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014. The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services. Services are offered nationwide and across a variety of sectors. The firm's clients range from family offices and high net worth individuals to institutions and professional investors. Real Estate related transactions are brokered through our subsidary firms, Native Angelino Real Estate and WEHO Realtor. Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, Claremont Colleges, and spent a term at the London School of Economics. Additionally, he is a certified Short Sale Specialist under the National Association of Realtors. Podcast The Native Angelino Podcast is underwritten and produced in conjunction with the Zero Hour Group, a consulting and strategy firm, parent to 1929, Native Angelino Real Estate, and associated real estate assets. Native Angelino description found on iTunes: “From a vantage point within sight of the Hollywood Sign, seated beneath a palm tree, Tom Levine takes you on a twisted, exploratory tour of popular thought, the upside-down theories of classical economics, politics, and other strange things. Tom talks all things Los Angeles, bright new ideas, and complex topics of interest to creative thinkers and discerning skeptics. L.A. locals state with pride, "You can surf in the morning and ski in the afternoon." Well, if you get a really early start, it's true. Sometimes. Los Angeles is the City of the Angels, and Tom Levine is a Native Angelino. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live

What Is A Yield Curve? The treasury yield curve is a graph that charts the interest rate on Treasury bonds, notes, and bills versus their maturity (the time until they pay back principal). Normally it slopes upward, from left to right. When you think about it, it makes sense. Bondholders demand a higher rate of interest to lend money (i.e., hold bonds) for a longer period of time. What Is An Inverted Yield Curve? What Is An Inverted Yield Curve? When the curve is "inverted," it is downward sloping from left to right, which means you will be paid less to hold bonds for a longer time. This scenario makes no sense for the individual investor. Why would you invest to earn less interest on a 30-year bond than on a 2-year bond? In most cases, you wouldn't. Why Does An Inversion Matter? An inverted, 3month to 10year USTreasury yield curve has had strong predictive power that a recession is coming. Typically, the recession is roughly 2 years out. A normal, upward-sloping curve suggests that the economic outlook is positive. Better times are anticipated, and as one would expect, it costs more to borrow money for the long term, and one receives a higher rate of interest to invest long term. An inverted, downward-sloping curve suggests that the outlook is negative or the economy is slowing. Is This Time Different? In September of 2018, I wrote a post entitled "Is This Time Different?" which asked, "Does A Flattening Yield Curve Predict A Recession?" Rick Santelli of CNBC interviewed Arturo Estrella of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Estrella stated that an inverted yield curve between 3 month Treasury Bills and 10 Year Treasury Bonds had predicted all 7 U.S. recessions that have occurred since 1968. Currently, the 3mos/10yr remains positively sloped; the 2yr/10yr and 5yr/10yr are negatively sloped or inverted and the curve all the way from 10 years to 30 years is almost flat. The 2yr/10yr inversion has been less accurate at predicting a recession than the 3mos/10yr spread. What Are The Bond Gurus Saying? Mohamed El-Erian - Allianz Stagflation is the baseline. This is the time to take some chips off the table. Jeff Gundlach - DoubleLine - “The New Bond King” Right on cue, the "It Doesn't Matter This Time" white papers are coming out, the DoubleLine Capital CEO tweeted. "Don't believe them." Bill Gross - PIMCO retired - “The Bond King” Bonds are definitely something to avoid. They (the Fed) are way behind the curve. If the ten year goes to 3, 3 1/2, or 4%, it will break the economy. 50-100bps more from the Fed and we will see a recession. Inflation will be 4-5%. Bill Gross referring to Jeff Gudlach: To be a bond king, you have to have a kingdom. PIMCO was $1-2 trillion, Gundlach has $134 billion and is not growing. Central banks and governments are the new bond kings and queens. The term is somewhat passe. Bill Gross referring to Cathy Wood (Cathy Wood Is Taking Fire): She doesn’t have an excellent sense of value and when to buy and what to pay. She seems to think that down the road her theory will be validated. For a more technical discussion of the yield curve inversion please watch the following video: ***NOTE: There are 12 zeros in a trillion, 9 in a billion and 6 in a million. I incorrectly stated 18 per trillion in the recording. Apologies.*** The Author And Podcast Host, Tom Levine Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014. The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, and real estate services. Services are offered nationwide and across a variety of sectors. The firm's clients range from family offices and high net worth individuals to institutions and professional investors. Real Estate related transactions are brokered through our subsidary firms, Native Angelino Real Estate and WEHO Realtor. Tom Levine is a Native Angelino and graduate of USC Marshall School of Business, Claremont Colleges, and spent a...

The Race Between Technology And Education A major impetus for my writing and recording is my interest in personal reinvention. The overcoming of adversity. How does one remain relevant in the job market after age - pick one - 40-45-50? Traditionally, in post-WW2 America, a citizen enters the workforce at 18-25 years of age, with no degree, or with a two-year, four year or graduate degree, and accumulates savings with the anticipation of retirement at age 65. For roughly seven decades, until the 2000s, this was the “American Dream.” Then Something Changed I speak with Professor Linus Yamane on the accompanying podcast about employment history and trends. The Professor is an expert in the Japanese and American history of economics from a macro or economy-wide perspective. Professor Yamane highlights the 2008 book by Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz, The Race Between Education and Technology. He refers to the book as “the most significant work on the topic of the last 50 years.” An update to the book titled, The Race Between Education and Technology, can be found here. The professor states that before approximately the year 2000, the path was clear. Get a college degree, and you will do better than your parents did economically and better than your non-college-educated fellow citizens. Somewhere around this time, the dynamic changed. As measured by income, the battle for success became a push and pull among those with college degrees. Liberal arts degrees have been devalued, and STEM degrees gained enormously in value. The devaluation led to a further stratification in income levels and further widened the income disparity between the haves and have nots. For those “older workers” that are seeking work, they may well find that their skill set and degree is no longer, or not as relevant as it was in decades past. Further, the impact of ageism, sexism, and racism may play a coincident role as well. The Role of Education And Technology The United States stopped producing engineers and scientists at the rate necessary to keep up with technology and to keep pace with our international competitors. To paraphrase Professor Yamane, the U.S. is educating STEM students at a rate of 20% of the total versus the new world leaders at 30%. The logical solution is to encourage students to go into science and technology tracks (STEM) at a very early age. Further, he believes that resources allocated to early childhood education are the best use of dollars aimed at rectifying the structural under-production of math and science degree graduates. The race between education and technology is a marathon. Education, re-education, training and re-training are necessary for a nation, our nation, to continue to compete and lead as an economic power. In future writings and podcasts, I will further explore the topic of employment for older demographics from both a macro and micro standpoint. We will examine the sociological, economic and psychological impact of long-term unemployment and the impact on the individual. One very good book that takes a global market approach is: The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio. We will discuss this book in an upcoming podcast. Finally, a quote from Professor Yamane: Of course, this does not mean that everyone should major in STEM. First and foremost, money is not everything. If you love what you do, you never have to work a day in your life. There is much to be said about doing something you find interesting and meaningful while interacting with people you enjoy and respect. You should try to maximize your happiness, not your income. They are not the same thing. And research shows that additional income above $100K in California does not increase average levels of happiness. The Author And Podcast Host, Tom Levine Following a 25 year career in capital markets, Tom Levine founded Zero Hour Group in 2014. The Los Angeles, California-based firm provides consulting, strategic analysis, and real...

Doug Shapiro spent a decade as an Institutional Investor ranked Wall Street analyst. He successfully transitioned to the C-Suite of a corporate media giant, Turner Broadcasting, as their Chief Strategy Officer. After 15 years at the company, and the AT&T buyout, he moved on to seek new challenges. In July of this year he authored an essay for Medium, titled, The Future of Media: Fewer, Bigger Hits, An Even Longer Tail, No Middle and Lower Returns. He postulates that there are two opposing market forces leading to the crowding out of mid-tier firms and offerings. At one end of the spectrum are big budget projects (think Disney and the recent release of Hamilton, or Pirates of the Caribbean) and at the other end is an almost endless supply of user generated content (think YouTube and Instagram Live). The wide availability of high quality, reasonably priced production equipment and distribution costs approaching zero combined with changing consumer perception of quality has forced the industry to these two extremes. In this episode I speak with Doug about content creation and intellectual property in an era of rapidly falling distribution costs. What the future holds for media is difficult to predict, but given his 25 years experience studying the industry I postulate that his vision is likely quite clear. The Future of Media by Doug Shapiro, Medium, July 5, 2020 ____________________________________________ Presented by Native Angelino Podcast in association with Day And Night Live, and Day And Night Media. Tom Levine is a Native Angelino Contact Us _____________ --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/native-angelino/message This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live

In the words of Asante Cleveland, a former NFL tight-end, podcast host and advisor to start-ups, "as a player post a big win or a stunning loss you must lock back in every week because you've got another task ahead". Lindsay Dare Shoop, Olympic gold-medalist, coach, author and speaker, shares a story of overcoming adversity to become an elite athlete from a starting point of being mentally and physically out of shape such that "a speed walker legged past her during the first 5k I completed". What are the similarities between an NFL career, competing for Olympic Gold, achieving success in business and finding balance in life? We explore this topic from many angles, but I will share a hint. Responding efficiently to adverse, out of the blue events is a skill based on preparation, luck, and the ability to move your mind from focusing on the negative to creating a positive course. Guest information: The White Tiger Podcast with Asante Cleveland and Craig Casaletto Better Great Than Never, Believing It's Possible is where Champions Begin by Lindsay Dare Shoop, Olympian, Coach, Author and Speaker ____________________________________________ Presented by Native Angelino Podcast in association with Day And Night Live, and Day And Night Media. Tom Levine is a Native Angelino Contact Us _____________ --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/native-angelino/message This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live

Designers and the economy. What's the view from the inside? The design consultant has a unique perspective that allows her (him) to see the world through the eyes of the client (homeowner, small business owner, corporate entity), as well as, through the lens of manufacturers, craftsmen, cargo shippers, entrepreneurs - essentially the entire supply chain. Add to this the face-to-face interaction with families at home and business owners at their place of work, and a perspective is forged...

I Hope I'm Wrong The U.S. stock market and the economy are diverging. 35 million Americans are unemployed and underemployed - approximately 20 percent of the workforce is without full-time employment. Covid-19 cases topped 1.3 million and more than 70,000 Americans have died. States are heading toward Phase 1 or Phase 2 reopening of local economies. The Fed and Treasury programs are in place. Securities markets have been lubricated and lending facilities supported. The CARES Act and associated programs (PPP, EIDL, PUA) are being implemented. Unemployment Insurance, both old style and new, is ramping up. Even the $1200 checks are arriving in bank accounts and mailboxes. Sam Zell, Warren Buffett, even Larry Fink, have sounded the alarm. Each express concern for different reasons, but all highlight general uncertainty, structural issues, and the greatest unknown - U.S consumer behavior. Behavioral economics for short. The PPP provides 8 weeks of cushion to small business, but what happens in week 9? What long term damage has been inflicted? Will the U.S. consumer chose to save rather than spend, as citizens did for 30 years post the Great Depression? I fear tough times ahead. I worry the end of the 11 year expansion will be far more painful than anticipated by most. I hope I am wrong. We are joined by Kaushik Saha, SVP of Quantitative Research at Hercules Investments. ______________________________________________________________________________________ #covid19 #behavioraleconomics #caresact #nativeangelino Special thanks for their sage words to: Mel Brooks and Professor Richard Portes. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/native-angelino/message This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live

Covid, Climate Change, a gecko, a fox, and an Oracle. The pandemic of 2020 brought a wake-up call. We are not immune from virus, the Blue Planet benefits from a carbon light industry, and global supply chains leave us vulnerable to disruption and economic warfare. In 1987, Gordon Gekko (Michael Douglas) walked along the shore at sunrise with a cell phone the size of a box of Kleenex in his left hand. With the swagger of a Wall Street Master of the Universe, he says to Budd Foxx (Charlie Sheen), "Money never sleeps"....."this is your wake-up call." In 1989 Michael Lewis released "Liar's Poker". The story of a young trainee's adventures through the caverns of World Trade Center trading desks, while dodging 5 gallon vats of guacamole and the perils of a 'greed is good' ethos. Little did Mr. Lewis know that the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, who saved Salomon Brothers on two occasions, would hold the 2020 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting on the World Wide Web, 30 years hence. Or that without using the words, Buffett would point to the soft science of behavioral economics as a primary reason for stepping aside from airline investments and the equity markets. It just so happens that Mr. Lewis also wrote a book on the soft science, The Undoing Project (2016), and on baseball (Moneyball), football (The Blind Side) and the Crash of 2008 (The Big Short). Will the post-coronavirus American public, and the global consumer, become savers rather than spenders? Will the aerial photos of China, the U.S., and the Amazon convince industry, and tree hugger alike, that it is economically wise to move to a carbon light society? Tune in to Episode 5, The Earth at Peace, but Never on Mute, to hear my thoughts and those of a high school student wise beyond her years. *************************************************************** Wall Street (1987), Money Never Sleeps Scene clip Tree People #caresact #california #behavioraleconomics #liarspoker #buffett --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/native-angelino/message This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live

Ever considered just how much a trillion dollars really is? In Episode 4, Trillions and Billions and Cares, we find out just how many zeros are attached to the latest round of Congressional appropriations. The CARES Act Round Dos, goes into effect Monday, April 27, 2020. The Small Business Administration (SBA) is ready to open the lending window at 10:30am ET. Will they have more success this time around? We will know soon enough. We explore and ponder the immediate and longer term impact of "helicopter money", ZOOM media, and potential changes to consumer behavior. We ask, "Will you go back to your WEWORK shared office space?" How about going to a movie, a concert or a crowded bar? Riddle me these answers and perhaps Dorothy will join you for a rendition of "Trillions and Billions and CARES. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/native-angelino/message This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live

How do you think you would view the world if your job was in jeopardy, your finances were upended, you were scared for your health and safety, were worried about loved ones, and were within days of losing the roof over your head? Well, you would be simpatico with millions of Americans living in the time of the Coronavirus Pandemic. Now imagine that you are in your early twenties and about to embark on a life you have eagerly anticipated and worked toward through college and graduate school. This is the perspective we will embrace as we hear from four young adults. With only a handful of days warning, they were instructed to vacate dormitories, warned not to return to campus, told to say goodbye to the final weeks of campus life and to kiss the graduation ceremony goodbye. Would you remain optimistic and measured in your outlook? Tune in to hear this group tell their tale while undergoing stay-at-home orders in California, Massachusetts, Ohio, and Rhode Island. ____________________ Tom Levine is a Native Angelino info@nativeangelino.com --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/native-angelino/message This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.1929.live

Following a day ripe with rumors of funding shortfalls, the Small Business Administration (SBA) confirmed via email that program changes and benefit reductions are a near certainty. ********************************************* --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/native-angelino/message Subscribe at tomlevine.substack.com

Today is April 12, 2020 - Easter Sunday. What a day to launch Episode 1 of The Native Angelino Podcast. Los Angeles, the United States, and the world is faced with the first global pandemic of the 21st century. Tom Levine speaks with two entrepreneurs about the challenges they currently face and asks, "has the CARES Act provided fast and direct economic assistance" as promised with the signing into law on March 27? Will the assistance be enough and what strategy will the business owners...