Yi Xiong, China Economist, sets out how the Chinese economy has been driven by a key theme in each of the last two decades: exports and then public investment. The next decade is set to be the consumption decade. The latent spending potential, particularly in retiring Chinese will continue to drive growth.
The past year and a half has seen an impressive slide in the global economy. Global GDP growth is expected to have ebbed to its lowest rate since the great recession this year, with some regions nearing recession and others increasingly fearing it. The primary factor is the strongly depressing effect on global trade and investment that has resulted from sharp increases in economic policy uncertainty associated with both trade policy conflicts and Brexit. Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic...
Heating and cooling represents around half of all EU energy use and almost a quarter of all EU emissions. If European countries are serious about substantially reducing emissions, emissions from heating will need to be tackled. James Brand, Head of European Utilities Research, shares his insights.
With many countries today above the recommended prudent upper threshold for debt, there is a risk that growth will slow, creating an unsustainable and negative debt/GDP cycle. That is what Jim Reid, Global Head of Thematic Research & Credit Research at Deutsche Bank Research highlights in this latest episode of Podzept.
Companies drag their heels on climate change because many managers believe that for the planet to win, profits must fall. Luke Templeman, analyst on the new Corporate Bank Focus Research team argues the opposite using evidence from both the stockmarkets and db primary research.
Listen to Oliver Harvey, Macro Strategist, discuss the latest on Brexit. The UK government intends to prorogue parliament from 10th September to 14th October when the government will hold a Queen's Speech. This limits the ability of MPs to table legislation to prevent no deal Brexit and signals that the Johnson government may be prepared to break constitutional precedent to take the UK out of the EU without a deal. At the same time, it could crystallise opposition to a no deal Brexit this...
Two decades ago, newspaper editors were told the internet age meant they had to give away content for free, create click-bait, and support it all with any advertising they could find. It hasn’t turned out that way. Fears of fake news, the shift to quality, and the lack of patience for distraction has led to growing numbers of subscribers at some of the world’s best-known mastheads. Yet, the shift is not complete. Communications and 5G technology are likely to have five impacts on the news...
The antennae and boxes, about the size of a handbag, have become more visible in New York over the last few years. They sit atop street lights, buildings, and other convenient locations. They are part of the ShotSpotter system and they listen for gunshots. When a shot is fired, the sensors can triangulate its location to within 25 metres. It then immediately sends an audio file to a support team. A review takes place using both machine learning and human input to determine if the sound was a...
If we are to believe the prognostications about its future impact, 5G certainly occupies a crucial geopolitical dimension. The ability to control the Internet of Things via vastly reduced latency and higher speed is a serious weapon in the hands of an adversary. Peter Garber, Global Strategist, outlines three possible main objectives of the Trump administration.
Tiffany Kanaga, US and Nizla Naizer, EMEA, two retail analysts, offer some food for thought around the rapidly evolving grocery industry. From click & collect to at home delivery to meal kits to other very nascent options like autonomous vehicles, there’s an explosion of more convenient ways by which your supermarket is trying to sell you bananas.
For the first time ever the Fed is undertaking a thorough academic review of its policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. The reviewers are some 30 academic experts on monetary policy and macroeconomics. Listen to Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, discussing the background to the review, the low-rate monetary policy and what a downturn could mean for financial stability.
Factor investing has become popular across asset classes, but interestingly less so in Credit markets. Listen to Caio Natividade, Head of Cross Asset Quantitative Research, Jose Gonzales, Cross Asset Quantitative Researcher and Richard Phelan, Head of European Credit Research, discuss why credit has fallen behind and how the team has developed a framework for factor investing in this particular asset class.
Global high-net worth wealth grew by 4 percent in 2018. This growth is far below past years as a more challenging market environment negatively affecting asset performance. Wealth Management business valuations decreased by more than 20% in 2018. Kai Upadek, Head of Wealth Management, Oliver Wyman and Kinner Lakhani, Head of European Equity Research & European Banks Strategist, Deutsche Bank discuss the outlook.
The 8th annual survey of global prices and living standards from various countries and cities around the world is out! In this podcast Jim Reid, Global Head of Fundamental Credit Strategy and Thematic Research, highlights the cities that have seen the biggest change not only over the last year but also over the last five years.
The US government raised tariffs on USD 200 bn of imports from China on May 10. Michael Spencer, Asia Pacific Chief Economist, discusses how much pain this, and the five tariff announcements last year, causes the US and Chinese economies.