Risk Parity Radio

In this episode we answer emails from Andrew, Geoff, and Frank. We discuss connecting risk parity investing to a bigger question: how to build a drawdown portfolio you can hold while using money to live a full life. Along the way we share a Fairfax CASA story, dig into narrative psychology, and answer practical fund questions on modifying the sample Golden Ratio portfolio, large cap stock funds, managed futures, and what beta does and does not tell you. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA Andrew's Book: Here I Walk: A Thousand Miles on Foot to Rome with Martin Luther: Wilson, Andrew L., Wilson, Sarah: 9781587433054: Amazon.com: Books Testfolio Comparison of Sample Golden Ratio vs. FAV Mods vs. 60/40 vs. Three Fund Portfolio: Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio Testfolio Comparison of Sample Golden Ratio vs. FAV Mods vs. 60/40 vs. Three Fund Portfolio (5% Withdrawals): Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio Breathless AI-Bot Summary: The best portfolio on paper can still fail in real life if you can’t stick with it when markets get weird. We take a listener-driven mailbag and use it to get practical about risk parity investing, retirement drawdown strategy, and the Golden Ratio portfolio idea as a set of principles rather than a rigid recipe you must copy. We also pause the market talk to highlight Fairfax CASA and share a powerful story about Christopher, a kid who endured years in the foster system before finally finding permanence through consistent advocacy and support. It’s a reminder that “long-term” is not an abstract concept, it’s something people live through, and steady commitment changes outcomes. From there we jump into what listeners are wrestling with right now: customizing a drawdown portfolio so you’ll actually hold it. We talk about why personalizing an allocation can increase adherence, when cash is just drag, how international stocks and small cap value (including AVUV-style “best in class” options) can fit, and how to evaluate managed futures funds like DBMF versus alternatives such as CTA. We also answer the beta question directly: there’s no ideal beta target here, because safe withdrawal rates are far more connected to maximum drawdowns and how long a portfolio stays underwater. If you get value from the show, subscribe, share it with a friend planning retirement, and leave a review on your favorite podcast app. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Matt, Michael, Stephen and Al. We discuss expanding the spending muscle in retirement, the generosity of our listeners, more on the Four Quadrant model and its permutations, and how we stay connected to listeners without inhabiting the conference circuit. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Additional Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA Cool Number Nerd Video: Fibonacci Numbers hidden in the Mandelbrot Set - Numberphile MiB Podcast Episode: Masters in Business: Jean-Philippe Bouchaud - Bloomberg The Dude's Link re Quadrants and Assets: Structural Diversification for All Seasons - ReSolve Asset Management (investresolve.com) Hedgeye Asset Chart: Hedgeye Four Quadrant Model Best and Worst Assets.pdf - Google Drive Bloomberg Inflation Presentation: Bloomberg Investing in Inflationary Regimes Presentation.pdf - Google Drive Listener Essay on Four Quadrant Model: 15 Uncorrelated Assets | SSiS Claudia Moise Paper with US Treasuries Correlation Data: Flights to Safety, Volatility Risk, and Monetary Policy by Claudia E. Moise :: SSRN Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: Hoarding can look a lot like “being responsible,” especially right before retirement when every headline makes the future feel fragile. We take a listener’s detailed numbers and use them to talk about a problem we see all the time: spending that never catches up with the life you actually want. If your future expenses are likely to decline in real terms, your personal inflation rate may be lower than CPI, and a fixed rule can quietly push you into over-saving instead of living. We share a simple, practical idea for breaking that pattern: create a visible spending bucket, spend intentionally, then review what brought real value and what didn’t. Then we shift into a deep question from a data-driven listener who tried to test Bridgewater’s four quadrant model using growth and inflation data. We explain why these relationships are probabilistic, why short time frames can look like a noisy blob, and where to look for research that connects macro regimes to asset returns. Along the way we revisit the roles different diversifiers can play in a risk parity portfolio: Treasury bonds as recession insurance, managed futures and commodities for ugly inflation shocks, and gold as a strange but useful diversifier when the world gets weird. We wrap with our weekly portfolio review and a quick read on what’s been working lately across stocks, small cap value, bonds, gold, REITs, commodities and managed futures, including results from our sample portfolios and a few leveraged experiments. If you like practical asset allocation, retirement withdrawal strategy, and plainspoken investing conversations with some humor mixed in, hit play, then subscribe, share the show, and leave a review so more do-it-yourself investors can find it. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Dustin, Optimus Bill, Vaibhav, and Morrie. We discuss how to vet a new "shiny object" ETF, why trying to "fix" target date funds is likely to be a fools' errand as their proper use is extremely limited, and transitioning into a retirement drawdown portfolio without obsessing over recent market highs. In our Queen Mary segment, we also provide a Fairfax CASA fundraiser update and explain how your donations support foster care advocacy. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA Morningstar Analysis of LCOW: LCOW – Portfolio – Pacer S&P 500 Qul FCF Aristocrats ETF | Morningstar Breathless AI-Bot Summary: A slick email promises “Quality” and “Aristocrats,” a backtest says it beat the market, and suddenly you are wondering if your portfolio is missing a magic ingredient. We slow that moment down and show you how to think like a process-driven investor instead of a headline-driven one. Starting with a listener question about a brand-new ETF, we walk through a simple evaluation method using Morningstar: check the expense ratio, identify the fund category, inspect the holdings, and compare it to cheaper index funds. The punchline is not about one ticker symbol, it is about learning to spot shiny-object marketing before it steals your time and returns. From there we tackle a bigger theme: why so much financial media is engineered to keep “Level 2” investors chasing opinions and hopping from strategy to strategy. We talk about data mining, why a 10 to 15 year backtest can be deeply misleading, and what you should demand before believing any performance story. If you care about long-term portfolio design, the right order is asset allocation first, fund selection second, with low costs as a default unless something is truly different. We also answer questions on target date funds, accumulation versus decumulation, and how real retirement planning gets messy across pre-tax, Roth, HSA, and taxable accounts. Finally, we address a common retirement fear: investing when “the market is high.” We explain why diversification changes that question, how different assets can carry the load at different times, and how to schedule a transition plan if moving all at once feels hard. Subscribe for more no-nonsense portfolio talk, share this with a friend who keeps getting pitched “new” ETFs, and leave a review if the framework helps. If you can, donate to Fairfax CASA and help provide a steady advocate for children in foster care. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Ronald, George, Jeff. We celebrate episode 500 by sharing a few “Easter egg” resources, then jump into listener questions that cut through common investing myths. We discuss a portfolio for a non-profit, rant about TIPS with a Wall Street Journal article to back us up, and talk about various choices in withdrawal methods. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA Rant Anthology Slides: Risk Parity Radio Rants Anthology.pdf - Google Drive Four Quadrant Video: The Four Quadrant Model and the True Meaning of Diversification.mp4 - Google Drive WSJ Article on TIPS: TIPS_ Inflation-Protected Bonds Dont Help You When Inflation Is High - WSJ Copy.pdf - Google Drive Bernstein TIPS Article: Riskless at Age 104 - Articles - Advisor Perspectives ("A bond fund manager recently related to me his difficulty in figuring out the role of TIPS in his portfolios. After fumbling for a reply, I realized that he was right: like Social Security, they don’t occupy a formal slot in most folks’ asset allocation. . . . TIPS should be kept mentally separate from the policy asset allocation as well.") Morningstar Article: Morningstar State_of_Retirement_Income_2025.pdf - Google Drive EconoMe 2026 Presentation: F. Vasquez EconoMe 2026 Final Slides.pdf - Google Drive Breathless AI-Bot Summary: Episode 500 lands with a simple promise: fewer stories, more data, and portfolio choices that hold up when markets stop cooperating. We share a couple of nostalgic “Easter egg” extras from our back catalog, then dive into listener mail that hits the heart of modern portfolio construction for both individuals and institutions. First, we tackle a nonprofit investing question about moving from capital preservation to growth using a heavily value tilted stock mix. We break down what that allocation is really buying (small cap value, mid cap value, and a value lean in large caps), why it can shine over very long horizons, and why the same strategy can still test patience for a decade or more. If you’ve ever wondered how to balance expected return against real world tracking error, this section is for you. Then we hit the big rant: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are not the inflation shield they’re marketed to be. We walk through the Wall Street Journal’s findings, the 2022 case study, and the bigger point that TIPS are still bonds with rate risk. We also talk about what has tended to help more in inflationary regimes, including commodities, value oriented equities, and managed futures, plus when a TIPS ladder might be a reasonable side tool. We wrap with a practical retirement planning question on withdrawal mechanics, why CPI based “inflation adjusted” spending is often misunderstood, and the other levers that matter as much as asset allocation. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Jose, Luc and Sara. We discuss using specific tax lots to reduce capital gains when reallocating, how the 0% long-term capital gains bracket works and why many land in the 15% bracket, where to hold gold like GLDM across IRAs and taxable accounts, turning off dividend reinvestment to simplify moves and build retirement cash, replacing total bond and international bond funds with Treasury funds like VGIT and VGLT,, why diversification and value exposure can improve safe withdrawal rate odds, supporting and encouraging college-age kids with clear expectations, and tools to model short retirements and scenarios. We also celebrate a major fundraising milestone for Fairfax CASA and share a real story of how advocacy changes outcomes for teens in our Queen Mary segment. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA Jose's Portfolio Link: Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio Investopedia Capital Gains Taxes Article: Capital Gains Tax: What It Is, How It Works, and Current Rates Sara's Portfolio Analyses (from prior episode): testfol.io/?s=htNZVoZOZn4 Portfolio Charts Withdrawal Rates Calculator: Withdrawal Rates – Portfolio Charts Portfolio Visualizer Financial Goals Tool: Financial Goals Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: $24,000 raised by listeners, plus a pledged $20,000 match, is the kind of number that stops you in your tracks and then makes you proud to be part of a community. We kick off with a Fairfax CASA update for Child Abuse Prevention Month and a powerful success story about three teen sisters, a young uncle who stepped up, and the CASA volunteer who became the one trusted voice the girls could confide in when everything felt chaotic. Then we shift into what Risk Parity Radio does best: answering detailed listener emails with practical, step-by-step personal finance guidance. We dig into how to transition a Vanguard-style portfolio toward a risk parity retirement portfolio without detonating a capital gains tax bill, including how to sell specific tax lots, what the 0% long-term capital gains bracket really requires, and when “good enough” beats waiting for perfect. We also cover gold allocation in decumulation (including where GLDM can sit across IRAs and taxable accounts), why turning off dividend reinvestment can make withdrawals and rebalancing cleaner, and why Treasury bond funds like VGIT and VGLT can diversify equity risk better than credit-heavy bond mixes. We also take a thoughtful detour into family finance: how much to help your kids with college while still protecting their drive and independence, how to have “the talk” about expectations, and ways to cut education costs without cutting opportunity. Finally, we revisit a short-term retirement runway plan and talk scenario testing, safe withdrawal rates, and modeling tools like Portfolio Charts, TestFol.io, and Portfolio Visualizer so you can stress-test risk, time horizon, and side income realistically. If you found this helpful, subscribe, share the episode with a DIY investor friend, and leave a review so more people can find the show. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Frank, Stephen (from Cincy), Jeff, and Sally. We focus on a common retirement blind spot: once you are financially independent, portfolio tweaks matter less than the life choices you make with the time you have. We also address those tweaks and then dig into HSA asset location traps, reflect on our listeners and our mission, and talk about our fundraiser for Fairfax CASA. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA Video About the Over-Saver Trap And How To Use Your Money To Improve Your Well-Being In Retirement: RPR Episode 436 Illustrated: The Two Halves of Your Financial Life The Four Quadrant Model Exquisitely Explained With Illustrations Inspired By Vanmeer: The Four Quadrant Wealth Atlas.pdf - Google Drive Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: You can do everything “right” financially and still miss the point of retirement. We kick off with a listener who is debt free, nearing retirement, sitting on substantial retirement accounts, and backed by a pension and rental income. The question on the surface is classic DIY investing: should the equity slice rise to 45%, should yield be reinvested, and when should a risk parity style portfolio transition happen? Our answer starts with the math, then quickly moves to what the math is trying to protect. From there, we zoom in on practical asset allocation choices that matter for real portfolios: how much long-term Treasury bond exposure is too much, why intermediate Treasuries may be redundant next to long duration bonds, and why turning off dividend reinvestment can make retirement rebalancing cleaner. We also talk value-tilted ETFs like AVGV and related Avantis funds, including how “fund of funds” products can quietly overlap with holdings you already own and make your plan harder to manage. Next, a second listener brings an under-discussed HSA twist. HSAs often get treated like a Roth IRA, but the inheritance rules can be punishing for non-spouse heirs, turning a tax-advantaged account into a one-year tax bomb. We walk through what that means for asset location, Roth conversions, and where aggressive investing belongs if you are tempted to take big swings. We wrap with our weekly market snapshot and the April distributions across the eight sample portfolios on the Risk Parity Radio site. If you found this helpful, share it with a friend who is close to retirement, then subscribe and leave a quick review so more DIY investors can find the show. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Dave, Marcus Vindictus, and Sharon. We take a hard look at what “diversified” really means in retirement and why correlations matter more than fund count. We also talk about simplifying messy accounts, using AI to decode bad 401(k) menus, and making generosity a real part of financial independence. And we do a fundraising update for Mary's charity, Fairfax CASA, and discuss how CASA stability changes kids’ lives in our Queen Mary segment. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA Testfolio Fund Analysis: Asset Analyzer for ETFs, Stocks, and Funds | testfolio Testfolio Portfolio Comparison: Portfolio Backtester for ETFs and Asset Allocation | testfolio Merriman Best-in-Class ETFs: Best ETFs 2025 | Merriman Financial Education Foundation Dave's Cool New Tool: Rebalancer Catching Up To FI 401k Podcast: Is Your 401(k) a Mess? Do This Now (Step-by-Step Guide) | Bill & Jackie | 205 Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: A retirement portfolio can look “responsible” on paper and still blow up when you start taking withdrawals. We dig into a real listener email from a DIY investor who is close to early retirement and trying to understand why an advisor-built mix of total market stocks, dividends, international, corporate bonds, and high-yield bonds doesn’t behave like a true risk parity portfolio when markets get rough. We walk through the core retirement investing principles we use: define the goal (including a realistic safe withdrawal rate), check correlations so you know whether you’re actually diversified, and stress test over the decades that matter like the 1970s and the early 2000s. Along the way, we explain why credit-heavy bond funds can move with stocks, why Treasury bonds tend to be the better ballast, and why adding true alternatives like gold and managed futures has historically improved drawdown control and withdrawal outcomes. We also tackle two problems nearly every investor hits: the “robo-advisor spaghetti” account stuffed with hundreds of holdings, and the frustrating 401(k) plan menu full of overpriced or confusing funds. We share a practical shortcut for the 401(k) problem: paste the fund list into an AI tool and ask it which options are closest to an S&P 500 fund or total market index fund and which ones have the lowest fees. You’ll also hear updates on our fundraising for Fairfax CASA plus a reminder that money is most powerful when it supports a life well lived through giving, volunteering, and legacy planning. If this helps, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a rating or review. Support the show

In this episode we answer questions from Dustin, Optimus Bill and Scott. We discuss the common mistake of chasing tickers and low fees instead of building a portfolio around goals and carefully chosen asset classes, cowbell origins, what to do with large allocations to cash equivalents and how much do you really need, and transitioning to a retirement portfolio. Hint: Search "transitioning" on the podcast page at the website for more podcasts about that. We also review March market damage and show how diversified risk parity style portfolios hold up when stocks stumble. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA How To Do An Asset Swap Video from Risk Parity Chronicles: How to Do an Asset Swap Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: Zero-fee funds, shiny tickers, and “close enough” substitutions can feel like smart investing, right up until you realize they’re steering your entire asset allocation. We dig into listener questions that expose a common trap: building a portfolio around a fund you like instead of designing a plan around your goals, your time horizon, and the asset classes that actually do the work. We break down Fidelity Zero funds through a practical lens: mutual fund vs ETF structure, tax efficiency, portability across brokerages, and how to confirm what you’re buying with tools like the Morningstar style box. We also talk plainly about expense ratios in a world where most fees are already low, and why rebalancing, diversification, and holding the intended exposures matter more than shaving a few basis points. Then we tackle a deceptively simple question about gold. GLTR holds multiple precious metals, but gold has a unique role as a central-bank reserve asset that behaves differently from silver, platinum, and palladium. If your portfolio needs gold as an alternative currency style diversifier, you want a gold ETF, not a basket that “kind of” looks similar. We also cover asset location and the asset swap idea for cash equivalents, how much to keep in checking for real-life spending, and when it makes sense to shift from an all-stock accumulation portfolio toward Golden Ratio or Golden Butterfly as you approach your financial independence number. Finally, we run through March performance across major assets and our sample portfolios, including a clear reminder about what leverage can do in rough markets. If you found this helpful, subscribe, share it with a DIY investor friend, and leave a quick review so more people can find the show. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Andy, John, and Todd. We discuss what "holding dollars" means, the lure of speculation on recent events, the ongoing inadequacies of 401k and 403b plans and their incentives, and small cap value vs. small cap blend. More Cowbell! Before that we trade stories from the EconoMe Conference and spotlight Fairfax CASA’s work with foster kids and our fundraising efforts. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA EconoMe Presentation on Financial Forecasting and Base Rates: F. Vasquez EconoMe 2026 Final Slides.pdf - Google Drive Testfolio Comparison of LCV vs. LCG vs. SCV vs. SCG: testfol.io/?s=cSv9C5VxOW9 Testfolio Comparison of Golden Ratio Portfolios with Small Cap Variants: testfol.io/?s=hTcOUvd0g4J Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: Markets get weird fast: oil shocks, war headlines, and that sickening moment when it feels like every asset in your portfolio is moving together. We dig into a question that pops up in exactly those moments: what does it actually mean when traders say they’re “holding dollars,” and is there a DIY investor version that makes sense? We walk through the mechanics behind dollar demand, why institutional cash moves don’t map neatly onto a home risk parity portfolio, and why cash timing is a low-odds game for long-term investors. From there, we tackle the real culprit behind most bad decisions: the urge to tinker. We talk leverage, opportunistic investing, and the seductive idea that you’ll spot the perfect entry point if you just watch enough financial news. Our view stays consistent: a disciplined asset allocation, a clear rebalancing rule, and the patience to wait out uncertainty usually beat prediction. If you absolutely must scratch the itch, we discuss how some investors think about volatility tools when the VIX is elevated, and why even “smart” speculation should be capped and rules-based. We also answer a practical retirement-plan headache: building diversified risk parity style exposure inside a 401k or 403b with limited fund menus. We explain why plan options change slowly, what kinds of “alternative investments” may show up instead, and why pushing for a self-directed brokerage window can be the most effective workaround. Finally, we close with a nerdy but important allocation question: small cap value vs small cap blend, how small cap growth can sneak in, and why index selection (CRSP vs deeper value tilts like S&P 600 value style exposure) can change what your backtest is really telling you. Subscribe for more DIY investing clarity, share the show with a friend who keeps tinkering, and leave a quick review with your biggest portfolio question. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Nicholas, Nathan and Lisa. We discuss how much gold is enough and how much is too much, why calculators disagree and the best ways to use them, and what “better” means when the future is uncertain. We also walk through a FIRE portfolio headed toward retirement and talk briefly about finding an advisor familiar with risk parity principles. And before that, in our Queen Mary segment, we hear a Fairfax CASA story about how consistent advocacy supports kids in foster care. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA Nicholas's Gold Analysis Link: Plotting withdrawal rates, drawdowns, and returns for different risk parity portfolios - Google Sheets Testfolio Golden Backtests: testfol.io/?s=45IearFlQbV Afford Anything Episode #618: They Ran Out of Money. I Didn’t. Here’s Why Afford Anything Risk Parity Portfolio Blueprint: Afford Anything frank-vasquez-risk-parity-portfolio-BluePrint.pdf - Google Drive Optimus Bill's Interview on Bigger Pockets Money: The Decumulation Strategy After Hitting Financial Independence | Bill Yount Optimus Bill on Catching Up to FI: Founder of 'Catching Up to FI' Just Hit Financial Independence, Now What? | Bill Yount | 196 Optimus Bill's Financial Advisor: Kardinal Financial — Flat Fee & Fee-Only Financial Advisor Bryan Minogue | Madison, WI Breathless AI-Bot Summary: A backtest can make almost any portfolio look brilliant, especially when one tweak “wins” by a fraction of a percent. We dig into one of the most common examples: gold allocation in a risk parity portfolio. If PortfolioCharts shows 20 to 25 percent gold beating 10 to 15 percent for safe withdrawal rate, should you follow the numbers or trust your nerves? We explain where the 10 to 15 percent “sweet spot” comes from, why tiny gold slices rarely matter, and how overfitting turns a clean chart into a fragile plan. From there we zoom out to the real skill: comparing imperfect portfolios without pretending the future will match the past. I share why you should use multiple calculators and multiple datasets, how start dates can change results, and why swapping managed futures, commodities, and gold can flip the outcome. The point is not a magic formula, it is a durable range of allocations that survives uncertainty and keeps sequence of returns risk from wrecking your retirement. We also tackle a detailed FIRE email from a 45-year-old aiming to retire in about five years. We talk expense tracking as the foundation of retirement planning, why liquid assets matter more than net worth, and how to upgrade diversification with Treasury bonds rather than corporate-heavy bond funds. Finally, we cover inflation protection realities, including why TIPS can still drop in a rate shock and why managed futures often behave differently when inflation spikes. If you found this useful, subscribe, share it with a friend planning retirement, and leave a review so more DIY investors can find Risk Parity Radio. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Lee, Leo, Tony, and Samuel. We revel in Lee's generosity and discuss why we hold gold and treasuries, why recent performance should not drive allocation changes and common amateur investor fallacies, how to think about diversification when you invest outside the US, and how to think about correlations in a four quadrant model. And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA David Stein Interview: How to Think Clearly About Money Without Obsessing Over It with David Stein | White Coat Investor Portfolio Charts International Portfolios Analysis: What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio Charts Many Happy Returns Podcast with Tyler #!: Building a Bulletproof Retirement Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts - Many Happy Returns Many Happy Returns Podcast with Tyler #2: How to Pick Your Perfect Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts - Many Happy Returns Claudia Moise Paper with US Treasuries Correlation Data: Flights to Safety, Volatility Risk, and Monetary Policy by Claudia E. Moise :: SSRN Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summaries: Gold is up, bonds are weird, and everyone suddenly wants to “swap something out” based on what happened last quarter. We slow that impulse down and get back to first principles: what job does each asset do in a long-term risk parity style portfolio, and what happens when you start making allocation decisions from a gut feeling about what looks overbought or hated right now? We dig into a listener question about replacing gold inside the Golden Ratio Portfolio and explain why utilities are not a true substitute. Utilities can be useful, but they behave like stocks more than people admit, and they often carry interest-rate sensitivity that overlaps with bonds. If you want something that behaves more like gold’s diversifying role, we talk through what characteristics matter most, including low correlation to both stocks and bonds, and why managed futures is the more logical comparison. Along the way, we call out the common traps that wreck DIY portfolios: cherry-picked dates, short-term volatility panic, and the “crystal ball” mindset that quietly turns investing into trading. For our non-US listeners, we tackle how being based in the UK or investing in pound sterling can change implementation details without changing the big picture goal. We discuss currency risk, home-country bias, why US equities still matter for global exposure, and the tough question of whether your bond ballast should be in local currency, US dollars, or a mix. Then we answer a deep question about correlations: why stock-bond correlation is not random, how it shifts across macro regimes, and why treasuries tend to deliver negative correlation when it matters most, during recessions. We close with weekly portfolio performance across our sample portfolios and why the most disciplined move is often to do nothing. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from TJ, John and Optimus Bill. We discuss TJ's modified Golden Ratio portfolio and backtests, maximizing withdrawals with flexibility, ZROZ vs. TLT simulated leverage, gambling problems, intermediate accumulation to pay down a mortgage, and assorted allocations questions about mid-caps and other funds. We also talk about our Fairfax CASA fundraiser in our Queen Mary segment and a recent Catching Up to FI presentation at the end. Links: Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA TJ's Portfolio: testfol.io/?s=gJEgezdqVdy Portfolio Charts Risk Parity style Accumulation Article: Minimize Your Miss – Portfolio Charts Risk Parity Chronicles ZROZ vs. TLT Analysis: Bond Allocation Sizing - Google Sheets Risk Parity Chronicles KBWP Article: The Search for a Low-Beta Equity Unicorn - by Justin Catching Up to FI Presentation: Catching Up To FI Illinois/Wisconsin Meeting Presentation - YouTube Catching Up to FI Presentation Slides: The_Risk_Parity_Mission for Catching Up To FI.pdf - Google Drive Catching Up to FI Presentation Summary Video: Catching Up To FI Risk Parity Portfolios Meeting and Presentation.mp4 - Google Drive Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: A listener writes from overseas with a situation that strips retirement down to the essentials: no pension, no Social Security “backup plan,” and a real need to get the portfolio right. We walk through his modified Golden Ratio style allocation using growth and value funds, small-cap value tilts, long-duration Treasury strips, gold, and alternatives like DBMF, then talk about what matters more than a pretty spreadsheet: whether you can live with the drawdowns and keep the plan steady for decades. From there we get practical about retirement withdrawals and the assumptions hiding underneath them. We explain why a 5.5% withdrawal rate can be realistic when you pair it with flexible rules like a floor and ceiling approach, and why “inflation” is not one number that applies to everyone. If you’re living abroad, spending in another currency, or even willing to relocate, your personal inflation experience can diverge from CPI, which changes how you should think about risk, resilience, and what flexibility is worth. We also tackle the investor temptations that never seem to go away: debating ZROZ versus TLT, obsessing over duration ratios, and tinkering with allocations when the market gets loud. We share a simple constraint that helps many DIY investors stay sane: build a small sandbox for experiments so your core portfolio stays intact. We finish with an intermediate accumulation question about investing toward a future mortgage payoff, plus a clear framework for why splitting short and long Treasurys can be useful, and why international diversification often shows up as currency exposure in modern markets. Subscribe, share this with a friend who’s rebuilding their portfolio, and leave a review with the withdrawal rate question you’re trying to answer. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Optimus Bill, Mark and Ryan. We discuss donor advised fund sponsor Daffy and a strips fund portfolio substitution, the challenges of figuring out accumulation without getting caught up in chasing shiny objects and magic investing buttons, and discuss commercial risk parity funds and why they probably won't work for your goals. Errata: I said "Mark" when I meant "Michael" Mauboussin. And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center Catching Up To FI Podcast with Daffy: A Donor-Advised Fund For You (Daffy): Democratizing Philanthropy for Everyone | Adam Nash | 200 White Coat Investor Article: 150 Investment Portfolio Examples | White Coat Investor Infinite Loops Podcast with Jim O'Shaughnessy and Cliff Asness: Surviving the Meme Stock Bubble | Cliff Asness ETF Slop Video: The Rise of ETF Slop Sample Portfolio Idea for Mark: https://testfol.io/?s=flOaQQOXaH4 Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: A community gift turns into a movement: we celebrate more than $13,000 raised for Fairfax CASA and announce a surprise $20,000 match, then open the books on how donor-advised funds make generosity simpler, cheaper, and more strategic. From flat-fee platforms to custom portfolios and social giving, we share how to build a micro-foundation that aligns your values with long-term impact. Then we zoom out to the decisions that actually move the needle. Forget the hunt for a magic fund—macro allocation drives results. For savers 20-plus years from retirement, we unpack a clean, high-conviction approach: 100% equities with a two-fund core that pairs large-cap growth with small-cap value for balanced offense. We explain why investors underperform their own holdings, how to avoid shiny-object drift, and the simple rules that keep compounding on track. Curious about adding more “oomph” without reckless leverage? We walk through using Treasury Strips like ZROZ to amplify bond duration and free space for equities or gold. We also answer a big question: do risk parity ETFs solve the problem? They exist, but most are built for elegant theory, not your actual goals—be it maximum accumulation or higher safe withdrawal rates. For families who want one-ticket simplicity, we highlight how long-standing workhorses like Vanguard Wellington or Wellesley can deliver steady spending without complex overlays or buckets. We close with a brisk market recap, why alternatives like managed futures can shine during turbulence, and the habit that consistently wins: do nothing when your plan is sound. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Connor, Zachary and Brian. We discuss fund selection, doing the Big Law dance, portfolio construction basics and analyzing alternatives, and a partial retirement drawdown scenario involving early withdrawals, avoiding temptations to market time based on recent performances and funding a vacation property with a dedicated portfolio. But first we thank donors supporting Fairfax CASA and share Jillian Johnsrud’s moving story about adoption, foster care, and how a steadfast CASA changed her kids’ lives. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center "Retire Often" by Jillian Johnsrud: Book | Retire Often Bridgewater Paper Describing the Four Quadrant Model: Microsoft Word - 2009.12 AW Info Pack.doc Blog Article Describing Risk Parity Principles and the Four Quadrant Model: 15 Uncorrelated Assets | SSiS Video Describing Correlations of Alternatives (start timestamp 1:10): iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF Update with Andrew Beer | January 2026 Breathless AI-Bot Summary: A single constant can change a child’s life. That’s the heart of Jillian Johnsrud’s adoption and CASA story, where a determined CASA volunteer carried the full thread of her kids’ journey through seven case managers and years of upheaval. We open with gratitude for Fairfax CASA donors and a candid look at what Court Appointed Special Advocates really do: show up, remember, advocate, and persist in an unreasonably hard job that needs every ounce of support we can give. From there we pivot to the questions you care about. We unpack why SCHG works fine as a large cap growth sleeve and then dive into a pragmatic guide to risk parity. Using a four-quadrant map of growth and inflation, we explain how to pair equities with long-term Treasuries, gold, and managed futures to raise safe withdrawal rates without pretending to predict the future. You’ll hear how uncorrelated return streams and disciplined rebalancing—Shannon’s Demon in action—turn volatility into a feature, not a bug. We also draw a bright line between true diversifiers and crowded “alts” that secretly track stocks. We get tactical: how to treat accounts as one portfolio while keeping extra liquidity in taxable during a low-stress, lower-income phase; when to tax-gain harvest; and why tilting heavily into whatever just outperformed (gold now, bonds avoided) is classic recency bias. For those juggling work and life pivots, Frank shares hard-won Big Law advice: build stamina, communicate clearly, be relentlessly reliable, and stay curious as practice areas shift. Finally, we brainstorm a small, dedicated portfolio to fund a shared family vacation home, and why this sandbox is perfect for testing a slightly higher equity mix you can always top up. If this resonates, help us amplify the work of Fairfax CASA, then subscribe, share the episode with a friend who’s rethinking their allocation, and leave a quick review so more DIY investors can find the show. Your support keeps the conversation smart, practical, and focused on what actually works. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Jeffrey, Bryan, and Erik. We discuss the trade-offs of direct indexing in small cap value, why modest leverage on a diversified mix can outperform stock-heavy portfolios with fewer drawdowns, and modelling an early extra spending plan for retirement. And talk about forecasting with Base Rates. And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center Bigger Pockets Money Small Cap Value Discussion: Small Cap Value Funds for FI: Why AVUV? Bryan's Risk Parity Explainer Videos: Kardinal Financial - YouTube Bryan's Leveraged Golden Ratio Portfolios: testfol.io/?s=jXswQKw6avr RSST and GDE Comparisons: testfol.io/?s=dc0nz7avynF Ben Felix Video On Leverage: Investing With Leverage (Borrowing to Invest, Leveraged ETFs) (youtube.com) Erin on Money Truth About Spending Smirk and LTC: The Retirement Spending Smile Is Dead (Here’s What the Data Actually Shows) Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: Markets don’t hand out easy wins, so we lean into clarity: what actually works for DIY investors, what’s noise, and how to make choices you’ll stick with when regimes shift. We start with a pointed look at direct indexing in small cap value. The promise of tax loss harvesting sounds great, but the reality is messy: hundreds to thousands of tiny positions, frequent graduations at index cutoffs, and “optimized” portfolios designed to hug an index rather than truly replicate it. We break down why small cap value behaves more like equal weight, why that raises the bar for tracking and taxes, and where direct indexing makes more sense—large caps, cap-weighted sectors, and places where a handful of names dominate the exposure. From there, we unpack a smarter use of risk: applying modest leverage to a diversified portfolio instead of dropping diversifiers to chase higher returns. Think of it as scaling a better mix rather than concentrating into stocks. We compare tools like NTSX, GDE, GOVZ, and managed futures, and discuss why the 1.25x to 1.7x range often hits the sweet spot for return per unit of pain. We also stress-test composite ETFs against DIY equivalents for transparency and control. The goal is a higher Sharpe ratio and fewer bone-crushing drawdowns, not bravado. Planning meets practice when we tackle a common early-retirement question: how to model a 10,000-dollar travel burst for the first decade. The simplest answer is often best—set aside 100,000 dollars and spend it down—or use a Monte Carlo tool that handles time-varying cash flows. Keep three to five years in cash, refill from gains, and let base rates guide expectations. Research shows a spending bump near retirement and a gentle decline afterward for most households, with far fewer late-life spikes than fear-based sales pitches suggest. We close with portfolio reviews across eight sample allocations, highlighting how gold, commodities, and managed futures have led while mega-cap tech cooled and small cap value caught a bid. Support the show

In this episode we respond to emails from Nick, Ginna, Ashley, Chris and Sara. In our Queen Mary segment where we are raising money for Fairfax CASA, we express our gratitude for the outpouring of listener support and tell Noah and Taylor’s story of reunification. We then dive into two big portfolio questions: do managed futures replace gold, and how to fund an eight-year break without derailing long-term plans. We build a conservative drawdown portfolio, weigh taxes in taxable accounts, and explain why good portfolio construction beats market timing. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA Wilka's in NYC: Wilka's Sports Bar | Women's Sports Bar | New York, NY, USA Chris's Portfolio Constructions: testfol.io/?s=lwnOaJGvzDj Sara's Portfolio Analyses: testfol.io/?s=htNZVoZOZn4 Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: Start with purpose: a child’s safety, a mother’s grit, and a community that shows up. We open with a moving Fairfax CASA story—Noah and Taylor—that reminds us why steady advocacy and second chances matter. Listener donations pour in, and Mary shares how CASA pairs rigorous oversight with real compassion. From there, we pivot to the other kind of safety net: portfolios designed to fund real lives. A longtime listener asks if managed futures make gold redundant. We break down what trend-following actually captures, why gold’s long history and different crisis behavior still earn it a seat, and how the two hedges fit together when you care about drawdowns, not bragging rights. Then we tackle Sarah’s bold plan: an eight-year pause from work to care for family, spending about $90k per year from taxable savings before returning to the workforce. Rather than a classic risk-parity blend, we map a more conservative drawdown portfolio: roughly 30% equities with a large-cap value tilt and a sleeve of property-and-casualty insurers, 25% cash and short-term Treasuries for three years of runway, 25% intermediate Treasuries for recession insurance, and 20% in alternatives split between gold and managed futures. The goal isn’t to win a backtest—it’s to keep maximum drawdowns shallow and flexibility high. We also unpack taxes in the 0% capital gains band, why ordinary-income assets aren’t the villain during low-income years, and how realizing gains strategically can preserve ACA subsidies. For long-horizon IRAs, we keep it simple: a 100% equity mix across large-cap growth or blend and small-cap value, with an optional tilt to international small-cap value for broader diversification. No crystal balls, no heroic timing—just construction that respects time frames and human needs. If this episode helps you think differently about money, advocacy, or how to buy time for what matters, share it with a friend, subscribe, and leave a quick review so more DIY investors can find it. Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Tim, Anderson, and Pete. We discuss using a Golden Butterfly portfolio for intermediate accumulation, converting 529s to Roths and excessively levered portfolios for small children. (I can't make this stuff up.) But first we share Mary’s mission with Fairfax CASA and explain how steady advocacy changes a child’s path, and roll out our Fairfax CASA fundraising campaign in connection with National Child Abuse Prevention Month. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page: Donate - Fairfax CASA The Starfish Thrower Philosophy from Episode 441 (Cool New Video!): The Starfish Thrower Philosophy With Mary.mp4 - Google Drive Mary's CASA Case Adoption Story: The Johnson’s Foster Care & Adoption Story FIRE Takes Podcast: FIRE Takes Podcast Pete's Leveraged Leeroy Jenkins Portfolios: testfol.io/?s=l7aMOsy4720 Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: Ever wonder how to save for a goal that’s a few years away without riding stock-market whiplash or leaving too much on the table in cash? We walk through a practical, risk-aware path for mid-term savings and pair it with something close to our hearts: Mary’s work with Fairfax CASA, where trained volunteers are a constant for kids navigating abuse or neglect cases. You’ll hear what CASA volunteers actually do—attend hearings, coordinate services, write court reports, and keep showing up—plus the data that proves consistent advocacy moves outcomes. From there, we dig into building an intermediate-term portfolio using a risk parity approach like the Golden Butterfly. We explain how to model a real alternative to HYSAs: use long-history T-bill data instead of SHY, add regular monthly contributions to reflect real life, and examine drawdown length and worst-case windows over three to five-year spans. You’ll learn why shorter, shallower drawdowns can matter more than headline returns when timing is uncertain, and how Testfolio helps you compare paths with clarity. We also unpack a powerful planning angle: rolling leftover 529 funds to a Roth IRA under current rules, including holding periods, beneficiary considerations, earned income needs, and why Roth contribution capacity is too valuable to waste. We don’t shy away from the spicy stuff either—managed futures, leverage, and the gap between theory and practice. Rather than letting fear set the rules, we talk about small, controlled experiments that build skill and confidence. That shift—from anxiety to informed action—can change both your portfolio and your peace of mind. If this resonates, support Fairfax CASA via the link in the show notes and mention Risk Parity Radio or Mary Vasquez in the comment box. Then hit follow, share the episode with a friend who’s stuck between stocks and savings, and leave a quick review to help more DIY investors find us. Support the show

In this episode we answer email Serge, Nielsen, Paul and Loren. We dig into the core question that drives every portfolio -- when will this money be spent and by whom -- which dictates how it should be invested, and talk about the website, ETPs and their variations, and thinking about sabbaticals and Coast FI. We also mention our Risk Parity Radio gathering at EconoMe on Friday at the Celare Hotel. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Additional Links: The New(ish) Web Page: Risk Parity Radio Retire Often Book: Retire Often | Create a meaningful and enjoyable life Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: What is this money actually for—and when will it be used? We build from that deceptively simple question to map two clear paths: an equity-heavy accumulation approach for wealth you won’t touch for decades, and a diversified, endowment-inspired design for money you plan to spend or share in the near term. Along the way, we unpack revealed preferences, why giving while living can outperform hoarding for family outcomes, and how to convert volatility into usable cash flow with risk parity principles. We share practical playbooks for different life chapters. If you’re sitting on a seven-figure portfolio and dreaming of a sabbatical, hold 1–2 years of cash and let the rest compound in accumulation mode. If you’re leaning toward Coast FI, keep retirement assets in equities while your current work covers life today. If you aim to fund 4–5 percent distributions to family or philanthropy, build a portfolio with multiple return drivers—equities for growth, Treasuries for crisis defense, gold and commodities for inflation, and managed futures for trend resilience—plus disciplined rebalancing to support withdrawals through market cycles. We also clear up product confusion: GLD lives under the broader ETP umbrella while functioning like an ETF to most users—structure matters for risks and taxes, so read the prospectus and know what you own. To ground it all, we review the latest market moves—small-cap value strength, gold’s lead, managed futures momentum—and walk through sample portfolios, including rebalancing thresholds and what’s working now. Ready to align your portfolio with your real timeline and purpose? Hit play, subscribe for more smart, research-backed investing talk, and leave a review to help others find the show. Support the show

In this episode we answer questions from Ben, Todd, and Tom. We discuss how managed futures differ from momentum, differentiating Monte Carlo simulations and why you need to be careful with parameterized simulations, and flexible withdrawal strategies generally and applied to the sample portfolios. LInks: QMOM and DBMF comparison and correlations: testfol.io/analysis?s=5lCK1KCsAsx Morningstar 2025 State of Retirement Income Report: Morningstar State_of_Retirement_Income_2025.pdf - Google Drive Portfolio Charts Annual Returns Calculator: Annual Returns – Portfolio Charts Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: Ever wondered why a momentum stock fund and a managed futures fund can look similar on the surface yet behave like opposites when markets lurch? We dig into the real differences between equity momentum strategies like QMOM and multi-asset trend programs like DBMF, explaining how managed futures trade across stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies with the ability to go long and short. That breadth—and the discipline to follow trends over weeks to a year—creates low correlation to traditional portfolios and turns macro chaos into potential opportunity. From there, we tackle the Monte Carlo confusion that trips up even seasoned planners. We compare historical shuffles that preserve real-world co-movements with parameterized simulations that assume normal distributions and independence—two assumptions markets love to break. You’ll hear why fat tails matter, how “impossible” scenarios sneak into naïve models, and where to find usable inputs without double-counting inflation. We also share a simple framework: use multiple calculators, add historical stress tests starting in rough windows like 1968 or 2000, and look for consistent results across tools before you trust any forecast. Finally, we turn to retirement withdrawals and the habits that actually hold up. Instead of rigid CPI bumps, we walk through constant-percentage withdrawals, guardrails, and the reality that retiree spending tends to run at CPI minus 1–2 percent outside healthcare. We highlight how flexible rules can raise sustainable withdrawal rates and why resilient portfolio design—think Golden Butterfly or Golden Ratio—can outperform a classic 60/40 under severe sequences. If you’re ready to upgrade your plan with better diversification, better testing, and smarter spending rules, you’ll leave with practical steps you can apply today. Enjoyed the conversation? Subscribe, leave a review, and share this episode with a friend who’s serious about building a portfolio that survives bad markets. What testing change will you make this week? Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Sebastian, Mark, and James. We discuss the purpose of treasury bond allocations, annuity cash flows, and where rentals fit, goofy accounting for taxes, a bridge to social security and answer questions about Testfolio and data sources. And celebrate Catherine O'hara. And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Additional Links: Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center Immediate Annuities: Immediate Annuities - Income Annuity Quote Calculator - ImmediateAnnuities.com Portfolio Charts Data Sources Page: Data Sources – Portfolio Charts Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary Markets threw a curveball this week: gold ripped, then slipped; small cap value popped; long bonds mostly yawned. We use the noise as a lesson in clarity—every asset in a risk parity mix has a job. Treasuries aren’t for yield; they’re for recession insurance and rebalancing power when stocks sag. Gold, managed futures, and value are there to diversify return drivers so you’re not betting your future on a single story. We dig into a listener’s Golden Ratio allocation with annuitized payouts and single-family rentals. The key is classification. Treat rentals as income if you’re keeping them, or as a future lump sum if you plan to sell—but don’t try to count both the cash flow and the equity for rebalancing. We also tackle the “can I replace treasuries with X?” question, and explain why the only valid substitute must reliably rise when recessions hit. If it won’t go up when growth falls, it isn’t doing the bond job. From there, we clean up two planning snags that trip up even seasoned DIY investors. First, the tax myth: don’t “tax-adjust” asset values across accounts. Taxes are expenses, not asset haircuts. Optimize location, model annual tax liabilities, and keep the allocation true on the asset side. Second, Social Security modeling: the most practical move is to add it as an inflation-indexed future cash flow in a robust planner. If you need a present value for net worth, price a comparable inflation-adjusted deferred annuity instead of guessing with discount rates. For bridging years before benefits start, a TIPS ladder can unlock higher, earlier spending without warping your core portfolio. We wrap with a clear performance snapshot and withdrawals across eight sample portfolios, from the classic Golden Butterfly and Golden Ratio to levered experiments and a return-stacked build. The thread through it all is discipline: know each asset’s purpose, keep cash intentional, rebalance when markets hand you spread, and let validated data—not hunches—drive decisions. Support the show