Tune In Switched On

As part of the Inflation Reduction Act, draft guidance for the US hydrogen production tax credit was introduced in December 2023, with the aim of promoting decarbonization in hard-to-abate sectors and enhancing energy security in the country. While some applauded the draft guidance for preventing greenwashing and driving real decarbonization, others view these requirements as excessive, and fear they could potentially discourage investment in green hydrogen production. On today’s show, BNEF’s head of hydrogen research, Martin Tengler, hosts a conversation on hydrogen production in the US, with panelists Kathleen Barron, Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer at Constellation; Claire Behar, Chief Commercial Officer at Hy Stor Energy; Elena Scaltritti, Chief Commercial Officer at Topsoe; and Andy Vesey, President and Chief Executive Officer at Fortescue North America. They discuss whether the tax credit rules are helping or hurting green hydrogen production in the US, the lack of demand incentives compared with the EU, and the role that nuclear could play in the hydrogen sector’s future. Today’s episode was recorded live at the BNEF Summit New York.

Sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, has the potential to help decarbonize aviation and is the most scalable technology for this hard-to-abate sector in the near term. With offtake agreements for SAF surging over the past two years, the nascent industry has been showing promise. However, hurdles remain due to scarcity of supply, resource competition from renewable diesel, and a lack of technological diversification. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Daisy Robinson and Rose Oates, two members of BloombergNEF’s renewable fuels team. Together they discuss the regional policies that are driving the uptake of cleaner jet fuels, the different feedstocks used to produce SAF, and the greenium that SAF faces when compared with traditional fuels.

China is churning out clean energy technology at a breakneck pace, driving down prices on everything from solar panels to lithium ion batteries. With supply far exceeding demand, the timing couldn’t be worse for the many countries that are looking to onshore clean-tech equipment manufacturing. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Trade and Supply Chains, Antoine Vagneur-Jones. They discuss the impetus behind the Chinese government’s drive to dominate the clean-tech export sector, the sheer scale of the global manufacturing overcapacity and whether it’s already sufficient to meet net-zero goals, and the US reaction to Chinese companies potentially offshoring production to countries like Mexico.

Voluntary carbon markets are coming off a tumultuous year, with constant public scrutiny and high-profile scandals undermining investor confidence. Despite the turmoil, the market has grown to a record size, as corporations look to carbon offsets to reach their net zero goals. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Layla Khanfar, BNEF corporate sustainability and carbon offsets analyst, alongside Kyle Harrison, BNEF’s head of sustainability research for the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. They discuss BNEF’s long-term carbon-market scenarios, the different types of offsets that are available for purchase, and how private companies are stepping in to help fill the regulatory void.

Seaborne freight is the lifeblood of the global economy. It’s also a heavy polluter. Now that shipping companies, retailers and governments are all looking to decarbonize the supply chain, what is the outlook for clean shipping fuels? In a broad field of competing options including ammonia, methane and LNG, which is the most viable? On today’s show, Dana is joined by Mohith Velamala, a senior associate on BloombergNEF’s oil team. Together they discuss the maritime sector’s existing decarbonization targets and whether these can realistically be met, the stringent EU policies that are having a global impact, and the long-term outlook for fleet growth and its potential carbon footprint.

As the world races to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles, countries are ramping up their efforts across the supply chain, from mining raw materials to fostering consumer demand. For the fourth year, BloombergNEF has ranked the potential of 30 markets to build a secure, reliable and sustainable lithium-ion battery supply chain, with Canada leapfrogging China to clinch the top spot this time around. On today’s show, Dana is joined by the head of BNEF’s metals and mining team, Kwasi Ampofo, and metals and mining analyst Ellie Gomes-Callus. Together they discuss the ranking, including which countries are performing best across the five categories assessed, and also unpack the recent volatility in the lithium market and the impact that Indonesian policy has had on nickel prices.

The aviation industry’s pathway to net zero is far from certain. Operational improvements and technologies such as sustainable aviation fuel and zero-emission aircraft could offer substantial emissions reductions, but questions remain around timing, scalability and customers’ willingness to pay. So what strategies can airlines apply to reduce their carbon footprint and meet their net-zero commitments? On today’s show, Jade Patterson, a BloombergNEF senior associate in sustainable fuels, interviews United Airlines’ Chief Sustainability Officer, Lauren Riley. Together they discuss United’s strategy for achieving its climate goals, the governmental policies that could encourage carriers to adopt greener practices, and the venture fund that United has founded to help clean up aviation writ large. More information regarding BNEF’s Regional Forums and BNEF’s Flagship Summits can be found by clicking on the hyperlinks above.

With plastic production set to double by 2050, immediate action is needed to address plastic waste pollution and the inefficiencies of existing recycling systems. Chemical recycling could help process lower-grade feedstocks, significantly upping the amount of plastic that can be given a second life, but is the sector ready to do so? On today’s show, Dana is joined by Kirti Vasta, a senior associate from BloombergNEF’s sustainable materials team. Together they discuss the different forms chemical recycling can take, what’s driving investment in the space, and the unexpected places that recycled plastics can go.

As electric vehicle sales skyrocket, so too will the need for EV batteries and the metals that make them work. That’s where recycling comes in. By 2035, some 3.7 million metric tons of batteries could be nearing the end of their lives. Pull them apart to repurpose their innards, and you could have 10-18% of the key materials needed for battery manufacturing. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF energy storage analyst Andy Leach. Together they discuss why production scrap from the manufacturing process is the most important feedstock for near-term recycling, how EV ownership rates across different regions will impact the longer-term availability of key metals, and the policies and incentives that are designed to encourage and enforce battery recycling.

The Chinese government is rolling out one of the world’s most ambitious clean energy plans, targeting 1,200 gigawatts of installed renewable capacity by 2030. Part of their strategy involves building megabases, huge clean-energy developments that will generate more than one-third of the targeted total. Yet bringing a multi-gigawatt megabase to fruition, and doing it on such a tight time scale, is no minor feat. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF analysts Tianyi Zhao and Xiangyu Chen. Together they discuss the policies that are driving megabase rollout, how the enormous demand for wind and solar equipment is impacting prices, and the new ultra-high voltage grids that will carry the power generated from remote megabases to major cities.

At the beginning of each year, BloombergNEF releases the Energy Transition Investment Trends report, its definitive resource on global investment in the low-carbon energy transition. Since the report’s inception a decade ago, investment levels have steadily risen, breaking the $1 trillion mark in 2021 and reaching a record $1.5 trillion in 2022. Was 2023 another record year for energy transition investment, and which sectors saw the most notable growth or decline? On today’s show, Dana is joined by BNEF’s Deputy CEO, Albert Cheung, and Head of Technology and Innovation, Mark Daly. They discuss financing global supply chains, which clean energy technologies are on track for meeting net-zero targets, and whether climate tech equity financing has rebounded from recent lows.

California has long been proactive when it comes to environmental policy, implementing measures ranging from a carbon market to put a price on emissions, to legislation to phase out the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars. But are current policies going far enough, and what can be done to ensure the state’s position as the climate leader in the US? On today’s show, we bring you an interview from our recent San Francisco Summit, where California State Senator Scott Wiener sat down with Corey Cantor, a Senior Associate in BloombergNEF’s Electric Vehicle team. Together they discuss California’s need for better public transportation alongside the shift to cleaner cars, the new law Wiener spearheaded on corporate emissions disclosure, and the potential impact of a Trump second term on the Golden State.

On today’s bonus episode of the podcast, Dana is joined by Kathy Gao, a Senior Associate from BloombergNEF’s Hydrogen team, to unpack the things to watch for the sector in 2024. Together they discuss offtake agreements and the potential for shipping and aviation to step up as customers, whether nuclear could become a viable method of hydrogen production among the plethora of available options, and the policies that could drive supply and demand in the year ahead.

For every dollar supporting fossil-fuel supply, at least $4 must be put towards low-carbon energy this decade to keep the world on track to limit warming to 1.5C. But are the capital flows of corporations and financial institutions anywhere close to this balance? BloombergNEF has devised the Energy Supply Investment and Bank-Facilitated Financing Ratios to find out. On today’s show, Dana is joined by two of BNEF’s Sustainable Finance Associates, Trina White and Ryan Loughead. Together they discuss how energy financing varies by geography, how the sector has been performing against the wider market for debt and equity, and the ratios required to 2030 and in the decades ahead.

On today’s bonus episode of the podcast, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Industrial Decarbonization Specialist, Julia Attwood, to discuss what to watch in this space in 2024. Together they talk about the expanding opportunities to use captured CO2 and the growth in storage capacity for this gas, the momentum in large-scale chemical recycling of plastics, and the potential decarbonization of the steel and cement sectors.

On today’s bonus episode of the podcast, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Wind Research, Oliver Metcalfe, to discuss the things to watch for the sector in 2024. Together they talk about whether this year will offer a more stable environment for offshore wind development, if auctions for such projects will see more success, and the challenges facing Chinese turbine makers.

Set against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, this year will see elections taking place in markets that account for a combined 67% of global GDP. With the uncertainty that changes in leadership can bring, could these crucial votes lead to a slowing of investment in the energy transition as investors wait for the results and clear policy direction? On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Global Policy, Victoria Cuming, and US policy analyst, Derrick Flakoll. Together they discuss the implications for the Inflation Reduction Act should Donald Trump return to the White House, how useful polling data really is, and if growing right-leaning sentiment will be reflected in the upcoming European Parliament elections.

On today’s bonus episode of the podcast, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF metals analyst Yuchen Huo, to discuss the things to watch in industrial metals markets in 2024. Together they talk about what a continued slump in China’s property sector could mean for steel demand, how the expansion of electricity grids will drive the need for copper, and the impact of the ongoing surge in solar power capacity on aluminum.

With an energy mix dominated by aging and increasingly unreliable coal power plants, South Africans have been putting up with rolling blackouts all the way back to 2007. The government’s latest energy strategy lays out a path to reduce these electricity shortages by replacing coal-fired generation. But rather than renewables being the natural successor, the focus is instead on gas. On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Regional Energy Transitions, Emma Champion. Together they discuss why South Africa is still looking to fossil fuels for its power supply, why the new energy blueprint has rolled back utility-scale solar targets as smaller rooftop installations boom, and the attractiveness of the country as a renewable energy investment opportunity versus other markets in the region.

The start of each year sees BloombergNEF look at what could play out across the energy transition over the next 12 months. During January, Switched On will interview the brains behind the ‘Things to Watch’ series, starting with what to expect from the electric vehicle market. On today’s episode, Dana sits down with Colin McKerracher, BNEF’s Head of Advanced Transport. Together, they discuss the race between Tesla and BYD to claim the global EV sales crown, the new opportunities presented by emerging markets, and whether 2024 could be the year that oil demand sees a real dent from the shift to electric drivetrains.