The Sound of Economics

China’s astounding growth has slowed down over the last decade. Despite enormous progress and investment in research and development, China’s medium-term GDP growth is expected to fall to 2.4% by 2035. The Chinese economy will not grow much larger than the US economy in the foreseeable future, which has important geopolitical implications. In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Alicia García-Herrero and Max Zenglein to talk about the interconnectedness of China’s long-term growth prospect and its demographics. They discuss how economic deceleration impacts innovation, productivity and the wider society, as well as potential economic and foreign policy responses from the country’s leadership. The importance and possible effects of China’s future economic trajectory on the European Union are explored too. This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox! This is an output of China Horizons, Bruegel's contribution in the project Dealing with a resurgent China (DWARC). This project has received funding from the European Union’s HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions under grant agreement No. 101061700.

Digitalisation, robotisation and automation are changing the nature of jobs at an unprecedented rate. Newly emerging technologies are not only reducing the jobs performed by humans but also transforming the way people work. EU economies are undergoing a significant transition leading to the displacement of workers across all industries and workers find themselves in need of reskilling and upskilling to switch to jobs which are high in demand. The European Commission has named 2023 as its European Year of Skills with the stated goal to give fresh impetus to lifelong learning, empowering people and companies to contribute to the green and digital transitions, while supporting innovation and competitiveness. In the new Skills series of The Sound of Economics, we discuss how we can utilise upskilling and reskilling initiatives to protect vulnerable groups of the workforce, how to build a resilient workforce and a create better functioning EU labour market. In the first episode of the series, Giuseppe Porcaro sits down with Duygu Güner and El Iza Mohamedou to discuss the critical importance of reskilling and upskilling, examining the obstacles workers face in adapting to this new reality, all while exploring the pathways to achieving a resilient workforce. This podcast was produced within the project “Future of Work and Inclusive Growth in Europe“, with the financial support of the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth.

In 2022, Europe managed to safeguard the security of energy supply during a turbulent time for the energy sector. Moreover, the EU industry has, also thanks to public support, remained resilient beyond expectations. As the peak of the crisis seems to be behind us, Europe now needs to assess its longer-term industrial repercussions. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Jeromin Zettelmeyer invites Georg Zachmann and Giovanni Sgaravatti to explore the impact of energy crises on European industry and how to address these challenges. Relevant publication: Sgaravatti, G., S. Tagliapietra and G. Zachmann (2023) ‘Adjusting to the energy shock: the right policies for European industry’ Policy Brief 11/2023, Bruegel

The tech sector has become key player in the internal interconnection between economics and geopolitics. It is an essential industry that plays a critical role in shaping national security, supply chains and the consumer side of the economy. However, navigating through the geopolitical and economic challenges facing the tech industry requires an understanding of the bigger picture. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro invites Alicia García-Herrero to discuss the ongoing trend of tech bifurcation between China and the US, the growing divide of two ecosystems and its implications on the world. This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox!

EU finance ministers met at the April 2023 informal ECOFIN meeting to discuss the reform of the fiscal governance framework as proposed by the European Commission. Bruegel researchers were asked to contribute to this discussion by providing information on the long-term fiscal needs that countries will have and how well they may be able to meet these needs. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Maria Demertzis invites Zsolt Darvas and Jeromin Zettelmeyer to share their insights on the implications of long-term fiscal challenges facing the European Union. In their latest report, the authors identify that the pandemic and subsequent price shocks triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have increased longer-term fiscal pressures in the European Union through higher debt, higher expected real interest rates and higher public investment needs. Relevant publication: Zettelmeyer, J., G. Claeys, Z. Darvas, L. Welslau and S. Zenios (2023) ‘The longer-term fiscal challenges facing the European Union’ Policy Brief 10/2023, Bruegel This Policy Brief is a version of a paper prepared for the Working Session II of the Informal Meeting of EU Economy and Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, Stockholm, 29 April 2023.

The collapses in rapid succession of Credit Suisse in Switzerland along with the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank in the United States have reawakened debates on banking policy. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Silvia Merler and Nicolas Véron. Together they explore the lingering effects of the recent banking turmoil and how this controversy may nudge the EU towards better compliance with international banking capital standards. They also discuss the Commission's recently adopted bank crisis management and deposit insurance (CMDI) framework, as well as the prospects of completing a European banking union. Relevant publication: The US and Swiss messes may nudge the EU towards better international bank capital standards compliance, First glance, Nicolas Véron

Cryptocurrencies have become more popular and established in recent years. Simultaneously, crypto financial services, like lending, have also emerged. Given the increasing importance of digitalisation, it is fair to ask whether these digital decentralised services will become established and normalised. In this episode of The sound of economics, Giuseppe Porcaro invites Maria Demertzis and Catarina Martins to discuss the current and future role of decentralised finance in the financial system. Together they examine whether and how the crypto world contributes to the main objectives of the financial system: reducing search costs and financing growth. Relevant publication: Demertzis, M. and C. Martins (2023) ‘Decentralised finance: good technology, bad finance’ Policy Brief 09/2023, Bruegel

Since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1947, Africa has been crucial to China’s foreign policy. First, China supported several African liberation movements during the Cold War. Second, in November 2003, the Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) was created to improve cooperation between China and African states and third, Xi Jinping announced China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013, which aimed to reinvigorate the old silk trading route along the East African coast. Furthermore, a relatively unknown fact is that China has made significant investments in Africa's digital space. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Alicia García-Herrero and Iginio Gagliardone to talk about China’s image and digital influence in Africa. They discuss specific examples of successful and unsuccessful media narratives built by China and assess the role that Europe plays in relation to China and Africa's digital influence. Relevant publication: The Belt and Road Initiative transformation makes it a more – not less- useful tool for ChinaImperial Remains and Imperial Invitations: Centering Race within the Contemporary Large-Scale Infrastructures of East AfricaComparing North-South technology transfer and South-South technology transfer: The technology transfer impact of Ethiopian Wind Farms This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox! This is an output of China Horizons, Bruegel's contribution in the project Dealing with a resurgent China (DWARC). This project has received funding from the European Union’s HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions under grant agreement No. 101061700.

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of people have begun to work from home. However, the seeming flexibility of remote positions is not without its limitations, since the spatial distribution of such roles is vastly uneven. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Fabian Stephany and Monica Stephens to explore how remote work contributes to continued urbanisation. They give special focus to the importance of digital infrastructure and the proximity of service providers, as well as the gendered dimensions of working from home and how this can affect people’s ability to work remotely. Relevant publication: The ‘anywhere’ jobs are not everywhere – they’re in cities, blog post by Fabian Stephany This podcast was produced within the project “Future of Work and Inclusive Growth in Europe“, with the financial support of the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth.

In March 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) launched its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, to unwind its portfolio of assets that resulted from its quantitative easing (QE) policy of the last decade. Despite the scarce evidence on the effects of QT, it was never attempted in the Euro area. Most lessons can only be drawn from the 2017-19 experience in the United States. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Maria Demertzis invites Grégory Claeys and Megan Greene to discuss why the ECB has decided to go down the route of quantitative tightening and what it could mean for the future of the euro area. Relevant publication: Finding the right balance (sheet): quantitative tightening in the euro area, report by Grégory Claeys, requested by the ECON Committee, European Parliament

The Critical Raw Materials Act, proposed by the European Commission on the 16 March 2023, sets clear benchmarks for domestic capacities along the strategic raw material supply chain and to diversify EU supply. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro sits down with Bruegel researchers Marie Le Mouel and Niclas Poitiers to discuss critical raw materials and the role they play in the EU’s industrial policy, examining whether the proposed Act would help the bloc advance in its green and digital transformation.

When the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was first announced in 2013, its official objective was to improve connectivity. However, many things have happened since then, from the US-China trade war to US containment of China’s technological rise, as well as China’s much more belligerent approach to the West. How is the BRI changing in this new reality? In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Alessia Amighini and Alicia García-Herrero. They share the latest findings from their research, showing that the BRI has transformed itself from an economic to a much broader strategy with a political security-oriented focus. It serves as one of several devices uniting the Global South in a new and comprehensive narrative, one with a clear anti-Western tone. Beyond the BRI, this new narrative also features cooperation in the fields of digital governance, as well as academic and cultural exchanges. This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox! This is an output of China Horizons, Bruegel's contribution in the project Dealing with a resurgent China (DWARC). This project has received funding from the European Union’s HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions under grant agreement No. 101061700.

What is happening with the Silicon Valley Bank? In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro invites Rebecca Christie and Nicolas Véron to unpack the ongoing SVB crisis and what it entails for global financial markets.

On International Women’s Day 2023, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Nancy Folbre, one of the pioneering economists in the area of feminist economics. Together they discuss the findings published in Folbre’s latest book The rise and decline of patriarchal systems, where she examined the contradictory effects of capitalist development. She explains why the work of caring for others is under-valued and under-rewarded in today's global economy, calling attention to the organisation of childrearing, the care of other dependants and the inheritance of assets.

Europe has survived the energy crisis in the past year; however, it is time to look forward and prepare for winter 2023-24. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Jeromin Zettelmeyer invites Simone Tagliapietra and Ben McWilliams to present their latest paper, where they explore in detail the future of LNG imports, how much natural gas demand must be reduced to avoid crisis. They discuss the sectors which could take cuts in their energy consumption to aid in this preservation. McWilliams and Tagliapietra paint a sober picture of Europe’s gas supply-demand balance, stating that it will remain on a tightrope walk for the next two years. They also describe the strong and decisive actions that policymakers must continue to take to avoid emergency. Relevant publication: McWilliams, B., S. Tagliapietra, G. Zachmann and T. Deschuyteneer (2023) ‘Preparing for the next winter: Europe’s gas outlook for 2023’, Policy Contribution 01/2023, Bruegel

When the sanctions against Russia were first implemented, Giuseppe Porcaro invited Nicolas Véron and Elina Ribakova on The Sound of Economics to discuss the possible implications of those sanctions. On 24 February, it will be one year since the invasion of Ukraine. As this anniversary approaches, they revisit this topic to reflect on how effective the sanctions have been, its implication on the international financial and banking system and how Russia has responded to the sanctions. Check our special podcast series, War in Ukraine, which reflect on the implications of Russia's war in Ukraine in EU energy storage, macroeconomic implications, international finance system and more.

As China moves closer to fully re-emerging from three years of government imposed Covid isolation and as they begin to reintegrate with the rest of the world, economic expectations are high. Beijing’s recent pivot from its stringent zero-Covid strategy — which had long choked businesses — is expected to inject vitality into the world’s second-largest economy next year. But what will this reopening mean for the Chinese economy? How will it affect Chinese society and China’s relations with the rest of the world in areas such as energy consumption and price pressures? In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Bruegel’s Alicia García-Herrero and Steven Ying, the founding Managing Partner of High Impact Capital Advisor, to discuss the global implications of China’s reopening after their Covid isolation, China’s economic outlook in 2023 and the consequences this may have for Europe and the rest of the world. This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox!

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 is a milestone in US climate policy. Unfortunately, it also contains protectionist elements, such as linking green subsidies to local content requirements (LCRs). This is prohibited under WTO rules. Legislating such LCRs is a first for the United States, and a blow to the multilateral trading system. In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Bruegel director Jeromin Zettelmeyer invites Kimberly Clausing and Sébastien Jean to discuss the policies laid out in the IRA and the impact it will have on the United States and other countries. They also discuss the global responses to the act and how EU policy makers in particular should react. Our new policy brief explains what is in the IRA, the impact on the EU and other economies, and how the EU should react.

In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro invites Uri Dadush to discuss whether deglobalisation is happening worldwide. They discuss the impacts of this on the global economy and what it may mean for internal relations. In his recent research, Uri detailed how, despite the current bleak rhetoric surrounding deglobalisation, most countries have seen increased international integration across nearly all goods, services and factor markets. He acknowledges, however, that geopolitics could prevail over economics in the future of globalisation. Relevant publication: Dadush, U. (2022) ‘Deglobalisation and protectionism’ Working Paper 18/2022, Bruegel

It has been 60 years since the foundation of the Élysée Treaty, which was signed on the 22 January 1963. The treaty aimed to create close bilateral collaboration between France and Germany, to help reconcile past conflicts between the two countries and to allow them to emerge as one of the ‘engines’ of European integration. This year also marks the 20th anniversary of Bruegel’s concept as a Think Tank. The concept was developed jointly by Nicolas Véron and Jean Pisani-Ferry in 2003. The idea was later endorsed by French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who jointly declared that to help “contribute to international debates on economic, financial and trade policy, France and Germany have decided to launch a European initiative for the creation of a centre for the international economy devoted to those subjects. In this episode of The Sound of the Economics, Nicolas Véron and Jean Pisani-Ferry, two Frenchmen and founders of Bruegel, invite their German colleague, Cornelia Woll, President of the Hertie School, to revisit Franco-German relations from the signing of the Élysée Treaty, discussing the importance of those relations in European integration and how to redefine them in a modern context.