The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show

In this week’s episode of the TreppWire Podcast, we unpack the latest macro uncertainties shaping markets, from the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook to the potential transition to a Warsh-led Fed. We also share a 101 on Trimmed Mean PCE, explaining how the metric works, why it matters, and why it is gaining attention as an alternative way to read underlying inflation trends. We also examine mixed signals across commercial real estate (CRE), highlighting strength in data centers and AI-driven office leasing in San Francisco alongside cooling housing trends. The conversation digs into earnings and deal activity, including a strong quarter from CBRE driven by infrastructure momentum. We highlight cautious return to lending from mortgage REITs and improving credit trends among regional banks from recent Trepp research. Finally, we discuss major transactions like Ken Griffin expanding office footprint at planned Miami headquarters, Supermicro’s large San Jose lease, and Oracle’s Michigan data center project. Tune in now. Episode notes: Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we sit down with Chad Lavender, President of Capital Markets for North America at Newmark, to unpack how credit, liquidity, and pricing have recalibrated through the 2025 maturity wave and what that signals for 2026. With more than $50 billion in investment sales, recapitalizations, debt placements, and JV equity transactions to his name, Chad brings a front-row view of the capital stack. He explains why this cycle differs fundamentally from the GFC, thanks to deep debt liquidity, why senior housing is outperforming every asset class with his team alone closing over $12.5 billion this year, and how operational alpha is separating winners from losers. We also cover the resurgence of Class A office, the rise of active adult and medical office, GP-led recaps and continuation funds, and why Dallas remains one of the most investable CRE markets in the country. Tune in now Episode notes: Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine the selective stabilization theme shaping CRE in 2026, with strong retail sales and pending home sales pointing to forward motion even as affordability still caps housing. We break down Blue Owl's $2.4 billion acquisition of Sila Realty Trust, dig into multifamily supply dynamics as the top 25 developers command a record share of starts, and cover New York City's $4 billion pension commitment to affordable housing. We walk through Trepp's latest CRE debt universe analysis, showing banks finally showing early signs of credit expansion. We then dedicate a deep dive to data centers, covering operational resilience, the emerging power stack, Meta's $1 billion Tulsa AI facility, Maine's new construction ban, and Google-linked data centers' record $5.7 billion junk bond. Tune in now. Episode Notes Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we’re joined by Justin Kennedy, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of 3650 Capital, to discuss the state of commercial real estate (CRE) through the lens of nearly three decades of experience. Justin outlines how 3650 Capital operates across stable cash flow lending, real estate credit solutions, and special situations. We dive into significant market dispersion in the market and why micro-market fundamentals and property utility matter more than ever, as performance increasingly diverges across similar assets within geographic proximity. Justin explains how technology-driven shifts in retail and office demand represent secular change, why investors must focus on forward-looking utility over historical metrics, and how AI is beginning to influence real estate analysis. Tune in now. Episode Notes • Background in CRE & CMBS • 3650 Investment Strategy & Three Vehicle s • Real Estate Market Dispersion • Market Evolution: CRE Today • Technology Impact on CRE • AI's Role in Real Estate Workflows • Closing Thoughts & Advice Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we cover persistent inflation pressures tied to energy costs, improving liquidity in commercial real estate (CRE) financing and private credit markets, and key takeaways from bank earnings, where large banks continue to pull back from CRE lending while regional banks increase exposure. We also discuss the planned July 2026 launch of the Texas Stock Exchange and its implications for Dallas–Fort Worth as a financial hub. In a 101 segment, we break down 1031 exchanges and examine how eliminating the tax benefit could impact transaction volumes. On the CRE front, we cover Blackstone’s planned $2 billion IPO of its data center REIT (BXDC), the 575 Fifth Avenue acquisition by Sovereign Partners and Hudson Point Capital, WeWork’s new product. We also share several trading alerts from Trepp data. Tune in now. Episode notes: Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we sit down with Mike McDonald, Senior Managing Director of JLL Capital Markets, Americas, to unpack the current reality and outlook of the U.S. office real estate market. Mike shares his career journey, from managing boutique firms to co-leading JLL’s national office investment platform, and offers a 25-year perspective on how office real estate has evolved, particularly in the wake of COVID-19. He explains why traditional Class A and Class B labels no longer tell the full story and how JLL’s new tiering system better evaluates office assets based on quality, location, and vintage. Despite the challenges facing the sector, Mike remains bullish on office investment, and he walks through his three core investment strategies. We also highlight opportunity-rich markets such as Dallas and Austin and discuss AI’s impact on the sector. Tune in now. Episode Notes Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we unpack the market reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire and examine whether the energy shock has already left its mark on upcoming inflation data. We analyze Jamie Dimon's annual shareholder letter and its warnings on geopolitics, AI, and banking regulations. We share highlights from our Trepp banking webinar on CRE lending trends and private credit dynamics, then dive into our Q1 2026 CMBS issuance data, including a 76% surge in CRE CLO volume and rising office concentration in conduit deals. We also walk through a CMBS appraisal reduction trigger 101, cover Empire State Realty Trust's sale of a Midtown Manhattan office building, the biggest LA office lease of 2026 tied to the 2028 Summer Olympics, and Bed Bath & Beyond's recent acquisitions. Tune in now. Episode notes: • Economic Update: Iran Ceasefire, Oil Shock & Inflation Outlook • Petrodollar System & De-dollarization Risk • Jamie Dimon's Shareholder Letter: Geopolitics, AI & Bank Regulations • Bank CRE Lending Trends & Private Credit Dynamics • Q1 2026 CMBS Issuance: Records, CRE CLO Surge & Office Comeback • Appraisal Reduction 101: CMBS Triggers Explained • Office: Empire State Realty Trust Sells Midtown Building to Namdar • Office: On Location Signs Biggest LA Office Lease of 2026 for 2028 Olympics • Retail: Bed Bath & Beyond Acquires Lumber Liquidators' Parent Company • Programming Notes • Shoutouts Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

This week, the data is sending mixed signals about the state of the economy. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down February retail sales coming in stronger than expected, suggesting the consumer was still holding up earlier in the year, even as more recent data points to some softening beneath the surface and rates remain volatile. We also take a step back to examine long-term cycles, using the Artemis II mission as a lens to compare today’s economy and built environment to 1972, the last time humans orbited the moon. In commercial real estate (CRE), we dive into what happens as loans reach maturity, tracking a cohort over time to understand how many pay off, refinance, extend, or fall into distress. We also cover the latest CMBS delinquency data, along with notable headlines including a record-breaking $327.50 per square foot office lease in NYC, BGO’s $350 million acquisition of Bell Partners, and CVS’s plans to open more stores than it closes in 2026. Episode notes: Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down a market defined by volatility and an “escalate‑to‑de‑escalate” dynamic playing out in real time. We unpack the sharp intraday reversals in rates as weak Treasury demand and inflation concerns push yields higher, only to be pulled back by intermittent hopes for de‑escalation. We also examine new Federal Reserve proposals aimed at reducing bank capital requirements for commercial real estate (CRE) loans, a potential catalyst for increased lending capacity at a critical point in the cycle. We also cover key CRE headlines, including a $166.8 million data center land sale in Virginia, notable office financings at One Madison Avenue and San Francisco’s Merchants Exchange, and Nordstrom’s upcoming store closure at Galleria Dallas. Tune in now. Episode notes: Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine the Fed's decision to hold rates steady against a rapidly escalating geopolitical energy shock that is re-accelerating inflation and effectively taking rate relief off the table for CRE borrowers. We also look back six years to when COVID shocked the world and walk through Trepp data to review how each property sector held up, recovered, and in some cases still has not fully healed. We analyze the $5.6 billion Public Storage acquisition of National Storage Affiliates and what CMBS data reveals about self-storage performance. We close with office green shoots, including Bank of America's 20-year lease at One Bryant Park, OpenAI surpassing 1 million square feet in San Francisco, a Wells Fargo SASB financing in Silicon Valley, and Starbucks expanding to Nashville. Tune in now. Episode notes: • Economic Update: Fed Holds, Iran Energy Shock & Higher-for-Longer • Six years post-COVID: CRE Delinquency Retrospective by Property Type • COVID Lessons: Modifications, Policy Response & Structural Shift • Self-Storage: Public Storage & NSA Deal, and CMBS Performance • Office Stories: BofA at One Bryant Park, OpenAI, Wells Fargo SASB & Starbucks Nashville • Trading Alerts: Manhattan, Chicago, Virginia & Office Special Servicing Transfers • Programming Notes • Shoutouts Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down how the spike in oil is affecting the broader economy and discuss how the energy shock is adding new uncertainty to inflation, Fed policy, and market sentiment. We also analyze the state of the student housing market as March Madness approaches and examine proposed housing legislation that could reshape the single-family rental landscape. In commercial real estate (CRE) news, we cover a major industry consolidation as Savills is reportedly set to acquire Eastdil Secured in a deal valued at $1.2 billion. We highlight insights from Trepp’s latest CMBS Special Servicing Report, review recent trends in the Trepp Property Price Index (TPPI), and discuss several significant headlines and transactions from the week, including Manhattan office tower valuations falling below their COVID-era lows. Tune in now. Episode notes: Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine rising Middle East tensions following US-Israeli strikes on Iran, including Iranian drone damage to Amazon data centers in the Gulf, and the ripple effects on oil prices and the 10-year Treasury. We cover the reversal of the 10-year Treasury back above 4%, rising oil prices, and record redemption requests at Blackstone's private credit fund. We review Trepp's February CMBS delinquency data, take a deep dive into the surging CRE CLO market, and break down $7.6 billion in SASB AAA downgrades. We close with a trading alert on the Minneapolis City Center loan and Target's surprise lease buyout. Tune in now. Episode notes: • Economic Update: Labor Data, Middle East Conflict & Ides of March Superstition (1:14) • Iranian Drone Strikes on Amazon Middle East Facilities (15:35) • Treasury Yields & Oil: Market Reaction to Gulf Conflict (18:55) • Blackstone Private Credit Fund: Record Redemptions & Liquidity Response (22:05) • CMBS Delinquency Report: Rate Declined, Led by Large Office & Retail Loan Extensions (26:19) • CRE CLO Market: Record 2026 Issuance Pace (33:21) • SASB Ratings Migrations & SF Office Losses (40:33) • Programming Notes (53:26) • Shoutouts (56:02) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we explore whether current market conditions reflect resilience or the early stages of repricing. We break down mixed inflation signals, the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, and what policy uncertainty means for rates and risk appetite. We dig into private credit volatility and rising selectivity, CMBS issuance sentiment coming out of the SFVegas conference, cash-in refinancings, and new examples of office repricing from Chicago to San Francisco. We also cover fresh Trepp trading alerts and what servicer data is signaling across property types. Tune in now. Episode notes: Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we highlight softer‑than‑expected inflation, market takeaways from the Fed minutes, and key data releases on deck in a shortened week. We talk about key developments in affordable housing cand multifamily markets, followed by a look at data center growth and why Texas could be emerging as the next major hub. In a “digging through the data” segment, we do a deep dive into industrial performance across the top MSAs by occupancy, delinquency and average revenue per square foot. We break down office trading alerts for a Queens office and Chicago SASB loan, along with retail trading alerts involving loans from Saks Fifth Avenue and Paramus Park. We also discuss Palisade Center’s post‑foreclosure sale and wrap with Wendy’s plans to close 300 stores and the implications for retail and franchise operators. Tune in now. Episode notes: Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we sit down with Larry Connor, Founder and Managing Partner of The Connor Group, one of the largest privately held multifamily investment firms in the U.S. Larry shares how he went from a failed business venture to building a multi-billion-dollar multifamily platform grounded in operational discipline. He explains why operations, not renovations, drive the greatest value creation, how his team uses real-time data and AI to measure resident satisfaction, and why the 2020- 2022 liquidity era created a market that couldn’t last. Beyond real estate, Larry reflects on serving as pilot on Axiom Mission 1 to the International Space Station and participating in other demanding expeditions, outlining the philosophy of disciplined risk, preparation, and purpose that guides both his missions and his investment strategy. He closes with advice for builders and operators alike: aim high and don’t self-limit. Tune in now. Episode Notes Questions or comments?Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the growing disconnect between headline strength and underlying softness in the economy. Retail sales came in flat, jobs surprised to the upside, and sweeping BLS revisions quietly erased nearly 900,000 jobs from 2025 totals, leaving markets to reconcile conflicting signals. In commercial real estate, a wave of store closures from legacy brands like Eddie Bauer, Pizza Hut, Red Lobster, and Saks made headlines, but we explain why this looks more like retail rationalization than another apocalypse. In multifamily, we analyze Camden’s decision to exit California, the rent-setting software antitrust settlement, Los Angeles’ new adaptive reuse ordinance, and recent transactions in Quincy, Wilmington, and Charlotte. On the lodging side, we cover a $372 million Nashville hotel construction loan, Gencom’s acquisition of the Ritz-Carlton Central Park, and the Waldorf Astoria returning to the market after a $4 billion-plus renovation. We close with a preview of Trepp’s upcoming CMBS maturity playbook. Tune in now. Episode notes: • Economic Update: Retail Sales, Jobs Report & BLS Revisions • Retail Store Closures • Multifamily Deep Dive: Camden's California Exit, Rent Control, Antitrust Settlement & Adaptive Reuse • Multifamily Transactions: Quincy, MA; Wilmington, DE; Charlotte, NC • Lodging: Nashville Construction Loan, Ritz-Carlton Acquisition & Waldorf Astoria Sale • Programming Notes • Shoutouts Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

Right after we recorded last week, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine what that move could signal for the future path of interest rates and how markets are reacting. A brief government shutdown also delayed key economic data releases, leaving investors with limited visibility into growth and labor conditions. We also sit down with Ryan Sievers, Tax Partner at EisnerAmper, to unpack the One Big Beautiful Bill and its key implications for CRE, including bonus depreciation, Qualified Opportunity Zones, and what didn't make the cut. On the banking side, the latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows lending standards remain tight for office and construction—a trend we tie into findings from Trepp’s own lending survey—along with a look at Santander’s $12B acquisition of Webster Financial. Turning to commercial real estate, we unpack the January jump in the Trepp CMBS office delinquency rate, largely driven by two sizable loans, and close with key headlines from the week, including Brookfield’s $1.2B acquisition of Peakstone Realty Trust and Oracle’s plan to raise $45-$50B this year to expand its data center footprint. Tune in now. Episode notes: Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

As much of the U.S. stays frozen, the Fed also kept rates on ice this week. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the decision and what a shifting policy landscape could mean as Chair Powell’s term winds down. In multifamily, we share insights from the National Multifamily Housing Council conference, including a closer look at disciplined JV equity underwriting and the bridge-to-bridge lending trend fueling CRE CLO issuance. We also apply the Gordon Growth Model to San Francisco’s 3,165-unit Park Merced complex to unpack valuation dynamics and cash flow trends. Plus, we cover the co-working market’s resurgence, the halt of the $16 billion Hudson Tunnel project, Amazon’s closure of Fresh and Go stores, Fat Brands’ Chapter 11 filing, and recent multifamily transactions, including NBA star Giannis expanding his CRE portfolio with a Chicago apartment purchase. Tune in now. Episode notes: • Economic Update (1:40) • Fed Holds Rates Steady (4:11) • Multifamily Insights & Cap Rates (9:00) • Bridge to Bridge Lending & CRE CLO Issuance (19:34) • Park Merced Case Study: Gordon Growth Model Valuation Analysis (21:25) • $16 Billion Hudson Tunnel Project Halted (28:17) • Co-Working Market Roars Back to Life (31:17) • Retail Closures: Amazon Fresh/Go & Fat Brands Bankruptcy (36:03) • Multifamily Transactions: Giannis' Chicago Buy & Arizona Deal (39:55) • Programming Notes (44:10) • Shoutouts (47:12) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Richard (Rick) Schaupp, equity owner, Managing Director, and Head of Private Wealth Distribution at Clarion Partners. Rick shares his expert perspective on today’s commercial real estate (CRE) landscape and how Clarion is positioning itself across cycles. Rick provides insights into Clarion’s strategic focus on industrial and alternative assets, how the firm’s positioning helped it navigate the COVID-19 pandemic, and their approach to private credit and portfolio construction. We explore the evolving nature of industrial real estate, including the impact of Amazon's leasing practices and the potential challenges of long-term tenant commitments. We highlight data centers as an attractive asset class, as well as potential opportunities in senior housing and assisted living. Tune in now. Episode Notes • Background & Start in the Industry (1:14) • Industrial & Alternative Assets Focus (3:26) • Private Credit & Portfolio Construction (7:06) • Investment Strategy Four Themes (11:29) • COVID-19, Tariffs, and Amazon Impact on Industrial (17:46) • Data Center Demand (23:49) • Senior Housing & Assisted Living (28:04) • Opportunistic Approach & Outlook (32:16) Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down a busy week of economic data as markets look ahead to the Fed’s next meeting and reset expectations for 2026 interest rates. We also cover policy headlines out of Davos that are adding uncertainty around taxes, credit, and regulation. In commercial real estate, we spotlight the growing divide between slowing construction activity and strong data center investment driven by AI demand. We explain why data centers continue to outperform, unpack the nuances behind multifamily distress, and review recent deals that reveal both optimism and trouble across the market. We close with Amazon’s plan for its largest physical retail store yet — a 230,000‑square‑foot big‑box location in the Chicago suburbs. Tune in now. Episode notes: Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: X: www.x.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp