Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast

The 2024 Presidential campaign has been nothing if not exciting. From the disastrous first debate to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump to President Biden dropping out of the race, things couldn’t get more weird. Or could they? Kamala Harris will assuredly leave the Democratic Convention in Chicago as the party’s official nominee. However, who will be the Vice President on her ticket? Just how far to the left will the party platform go? On the other side of the aisle, what does JD Vance ultimately bring to the ticket? Is the GOP actually trying to win? There are too many questions and too few answers this close to the election. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the upcoming Presidential election and how bizarre the campaign, thus far, has been. Can it get worse between now and November?

The collapse in the real estate market in China, and subsequent banking crisis, haven’t attracted much media attention in the United States. However, it is a very real story to the average Chinese citizen and that country’s prospects for economic growth moving forward. Simply put, the incredible erosion of wealth due to falling housing prices will constrain consumer spending and investment for the foreseeable future. Numerous private sector bank failures will leave Beijing even more in control of the financial system. As a result, what the central government doesn’t outright own it can control through the access to credit. This will undoubted curtail innovation and entrepreneurialism. While China can continue to grow and remain a threat to the United States, its growth rates have peaked, probably permanently. What will that mean as the Chinese Communist Party tries to cling to power? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the ongoing real estate and banking crises in China, and how it will likely impact the global economy? Why is this such a secret?

What if NATO held a conference in Washington and nobody paid any attention? As far as most Americans are concerned, that is exactly what happened this past week. Regardless of the general public’s disinterest, NATO remains the United States’ primarily military alliance and commitment. Further, NATO obligates the U.S. to potentially fight and die for countries many Americans couldn’t find on a map. So, why don’t we care more than we do? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss NATO and our nation’s general apathy towards that organization. Are there any generational differences in opinion since John grew up during the Cold War and Sam didn’t?

The recent U.S. Presidential debate has been a topic of discussion since one minute after it began. Is the current President capable of serving out another term? Is the former President capable of keeping his ego in check to run the country without malice? What does this do for the election? What does this mean for the perception of American power around the world? Will widespread concern about Joe Biden’s effort result in a new Democratic candidate? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris have a frank discussion about the debate, and try to determine to a probable case scenario for November’s election and what that means for 2025.

With China as the most notable exception, the world’s richest countries 25 years ago are still largely the richest. Similarly, the world’s poorest countries at the start of the century are still at the bottom of the list. The same could be said for U.S. states. Why is this? Why do some countries and economies continue to thrive and others languish? Why do some have spurts of growth before petering out? How do some economies without any natural resources perform so well while others with an abundance dramatically underperform? Why are the disparities a constant? Why do some areas embrace change and others don’t? After all, change is necessary for inclusive, sustainable growth. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss why rich countries seem to stay rich and poor countries remain poor. Is there a magic formula for success? And what is the anchor holding people back

Recently, the G7 held its annual meeting in Italy. In the past, this gathering got a lot of media attention. Recently, it hasn’t, and this year was no exception. After all, the only leader of the group who is certain to be at next year’s event is Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. As a result, some have called the meeting “Meloni & the 6 Lame Ducks.” This relative weakness from the developed, western world’s leaders comes at an inopportune time. The Global South, led by China, is increasingly flexing its geopolitical strength, which could bode poorly for the existing world order. What does this mean for the US and the West’s existing world order? Could it suffer due to the current lack of leadership? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent G7 Summit, the West’s current relative weakness and the Global South’s rising importance.

With the news surrounding Elon Musk’s potential $50+ billion pay package from Tesla, people are again focusing on CEO pay in general. Should these people be making THAT much money? While the headline numbers are truly mindboggling, is there more to it than meets the eye? Is there a difference between income and wealth creation when analyzing an executive’s true value to a company? Further, do shareholders really care if the company is making them money? Finally, do we really want the government to determine how much people should be allowed to make in the private sector? In this week’s Trading Perspective’s, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss CEO pay and whether it is truly as unconscionable as it may seem. However, is anybody really “worth” that much money?

South Africa, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the European Parliament are all having elections over the next 6 weeks. Individually, each of them has consequences for the United States and their own regions. Combined, they could very easily have a massive global impact. Will the South Africans continue their drift into the Chinese and Russian orbits? Will Mexico continue to move further away from the center, as it has under its current President? Will the United Kingdom be able to stop its decade-long slide? What happens if the European Parliament goes from being a very liberal organization to very conservative? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the upcoming elections…just not the ones in the United States.

The world’s population is growing. Most of these people will be in third-world countries. They will aspire to have creature comforts Americans take for granted. Things like appliances and central air. In the United States, accelerated computing (AI), cloud and blockchain technologies and electric vehicles consume a lot of energy off the already stretched grid. In short, the demand for electricity, energy in general, is poised to accelerate over the next several decades. Is the global grid prepared? Will there be the necessary capacity? How will utilities around the world be able to provide the necessary power without using fossil fuels? Is there any way to prevent higher prices for US consumers? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the inevitability of an energy crunch in the not so distant future. John is so confident, he has bet Sam a steak dinner utility prices will be significantly higher, greater than the official inflation gauges, over the next five years. Is he right?

The U.S. stock market has been surprisingly strong thus far in 2024. This, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve hasn’t cut the overnight rate, and doesn’t appear poised to do so anytime soon. So, what is driving the current optimism? How much higher can stock prices climb? What will it take for U.S. investors to finally sell their positions? Should we reimagine the traditional methods of valuing the markets? Are the younger generations changing the rules of the game? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the surprising continued strength in U.S. stocks, and ask the following question: “how much longer can the market rally?”

Washington continues to report rosy economic data, and the general public continues to not believe it. Why is the average American so down on the economy when the official data suggests they should be happy? Is it inflation? Is it societal divisiveness? What is the real story? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the disconnect between the public’s perception of the economy and what the government is saying is the reality. Who is right?

The recent turmoil, protests and an apparent lack of accountability at many prestigious American institutions of higher learning have begged a question: is an Ivy League education still worth the cost? Does the rarefied air of these schools for the elite still impress the American public the way it once did, not so long ago? If not, why and when did it happen? What’s more, will it ever again. In this episode of Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the ongoing protests at numerous Northeastern colleges and universities and wonder whether these schools will return to position of prominence with the common man. The answer isn’t as simple as yes.

With all the turmoil around the world, and the subsequent drawdown on US stockpiles, just how prepared would the US be if the planet erupted in a hot war? Would the United States have enough ammunition, missiles, ships and planes to fight several different types of wars on several different continents? What’s more, is the American public ready for such a thing? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss about American military preparedness in what is increasingly a dangerous time.

Last week, the minimum wage for fast food workers in California went to $20. This will become the de facto minimum wage for unskilled labor across the state. While it might seem like a win for workers, what will be the likely end result? After all, someone will have to absorb this mandated cost increase, and it isn’t just going to be employers. Don’t tell anyone in Sacramento that, though. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the concept of the minimum wage and what its real impact is. If you took an Econ 101 class, you already know the answer.

Last week, a wayward container ship struck the Key Bridge causing it to collapse. This effectively closed the Port of Baltimore until the powers that be can clear the wreckage from the shipping channel. Will these delay derail the US economy? Will it cause supply chain issues up and down the East Coast? Will we have to wait months for our cars, our coal and our sugar? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent collapse of the Key Bridge and what the indefinite closure of the Port of Baltimore could mean to the US economy.

The recent turmoil in Haiti begs the question just what is the United States’ role in that fractured country? However, what should our role be in the Democratic Republic of Congo? Somalia? Myanmar? Gaza? Ukraine? The jungles of Colombia? Central America? And any other place which is suffering with internal strife, famine, civil war and worse, if that is possible? Should Washington spend taxpayer money and risk American lives meddling in other countries’ affairs? Are there any generational differences? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk what role the United States should play as police force to the world? Is that something Americans want us to be any longer? Will our younger generations even take up arms to do so?

This week the Administration restated tailpipe emission standards which will effectively end the American auto industry as we currently know it. The goal is simple: to have more Americans drive more electric vehicles in order to drive down harmful carbon emissions. However, as the old saying goes, for every action there is a reaction. Did the Administration really think through all of the probable consequences of its emissions mandate? At first blush, it wouldn’t appear so. On this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recently announced tailpipe emission standards and how the US economy simply isn’t ready, willing and able to abide by them.

Everywhere you look, it seems people are doing better than you are. They drive nicer cars. Eat better food. Wear nicer clothes. Have cooler friends. Take fancier trips. You name it. However, the chances are someone is looking at you, and feeling the same way. This begs the question: can money really buy happiness in a society which consumes so much of it? At first blush, it would seem so. But can it really? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about whether money truly can buy happiness. Are there any generational differences? Or does it depend on everybody’s unique definition of what happiness means?

What if they threw an election and no one cared? After all, both Biden and Trump had pretty much locked up their party’s nomination long before this week. So, a lot of Americans didn’t even bother voting. How will the sense of resignation impact the consumer and markets over the long months to November? Is the recent rally in cryptocurrencies and precious metals due to this sour sentiment, this angst, or something else? How much longer can it last? On this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the recent Not So Super Tuesday and what it could mean for the remainder of the year.

The government says the economy is growing rapidly and the U.S. consumer is alive and well. However, people don’t seem to believe this apparent good fortune, and complain about having to tighten their belts. So, just how strong is the U.S. consumer? And, what would you least be willing to cut out of your budget if worst came to worst? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about what they would chop and what they would keep in their budget if times really got tight. Are there any generational differences and Trading Perspectives?