UBS On-Air: Market Moves

The Federal Reserve’s December 2025 policy decision is finally revealed. The Fed has seemingly not attempted to change general expectations of a rate cut. Conspiracy theorists might suggest not delaying the meeting until the release of employment data implies Fed Chair Powell is confident about cutting—but there is likely to be some dissent. Dissent may cause trouble for Powell’s successor, if they command less respect than Powell.

Tune in for a timely year-end and yeah-ahead conversation on the municipal bond market, which include 2025 performance reflections and 2026 performance expectations. Featured are Daniel Close, Head of Municipals at Nuveen, and Doug Vissicchio, Head of Municipal Sales, Trading and Underwriting at UBS. Hosted by Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office.

Germany’s October trade surplus was larger than expected, principally because of a steeper fall in import demand. Globally, trade away from the US remains robust and (more or less) normal.

We preview this week’s economic data releases, along with the December FOMC meeting. Plus, a look at some potential market-moving events to watch out for through year-end, and thoughts on what factors are supporting the equity rally as indexes once again approach record levels. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s trade surplus exceeded one trillion US dollars in the 11 months to November. Round numbers do not matter in economics, but trends do. This surplus will help China meet its official growth target, compensating for somewhat lackluster domestic demand.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. Recorded on 7 December 2025.

As 2025 draws to a close, we cap off the year with Rich and Jason exchanging expectations for the market and macro environment in 2026 - including thoughts on the role of the Fed. Plus, a look at positioning preferences heading into the new year. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA). Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today we get information on the US consumer—but unfortunately it is a mix of old data and misdirection. September personal income and spending numbers (and the consumer expenditure deflator) should show the US consumer spending even as inflation pressures have built. Since April, consumer durable goods prices have added to inflation (having previously reduced it), for instance. However consumers have cut their savings rate to cover the price increases, keeping consumption stable.

A look at the landscape for Agency RMBS and the Housing Market, including a look at the prospects for and implications of the 50-yr and portable mortgages. Featured are Clayton Triick, Head of Portfolio Management of Public Strategies with Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US labor market is, rightly, a key focus. Low fear of unemployment gave US consumers the confidence to reduce savings rates. That reduction in savings rates has paid for the US consumer price increases since April, sustaining spending. The November ADP payrolls data showed labor market weakness. The ADP numbers do not necessarily have a strong relationship with reality, but the weakness increases the focus on today’s weekly initial jobless claims data.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard contemplates whether the “Santa Rally” is still alive, or if investors should pack-up for the holiday season. Plus, a classic literature-recommendation for year-end reading.

In the wake of Zohran Mamdani's recent win as New York City's 111th mayor, Jeannine and Ted discuss CIO’s Risk Categories for the city's debt, and what investors need to know. Featured are Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, & Ted Galgano, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office.

Join Jeremy Zirin, Head of the Private Client U.S. Equity Teams with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update and outlook for U.S. equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 25.11.19

US September import price inflation is old news, but will still be poured over by economists. Exporters do not pay tariffs in any economy—the legal liability for the tariff is that of the importer. However, exporters may discount their prices to offset tariffs, which would show up as lower pre-tariff import price. If that discounting is not taking place, the burden of the tariff passes further down the supply chain.

Alberto rejoins the podcast for a macro and positioning update for the Emerging Markets, including a look at preferences across Emerging Market equities, fixed income and currencies. Plus, a look at some notable developments to be mindful of across Latin America. Featured is Alberto Rojas, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane drops by for a geopolitics roundup with updates on the latest developments with respect to the Russia-Ukraine War and Venezuela. We also review the priorities of Congress through year-end and into early 2026. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan’s 10-year government bond auction had solid demand. Normally, this would not merit attention, but international investors have been getting anxious about Japan’s debt. Domestic investors have not. Japan is wealthy, most bonds are owned domestically, and the government has a lot of practice in funding its borrowing requirements.

With fifteen relevant trading days remaining for 2025, investors over the next few weeks will be watching for key economic data releases, a potential Fed rate cut, and a possible announcement of the new Fed Chair. Jason drops by to explain what this all could mean for the markets and investment outlook. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump indicated that a nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve has been selected (though without giving a name). Senate confirmation is assumed by the markets, as none of the supposed candidates are so radical as to merit independent Senate action. Fed members have been showing increased independence in policy votes, however, which may blunt the impact of the Fed Chair on policy direction.

Phil Orlando is the Chief Market Strategist and Global Head of Investment Directors at Federated Hermes. Phil reflects on the outcomes of the November elections and shares thoughts on the potential implications to the 2026 midterms. We also discuss the potential road ahead for U.S. trade policy, along with monetary policy ahead of the December FOMC meeting. Host: Daniel Cassidy