UBS On-Air: Market Moves

As 2025 draws to a close, we cap off the year with Rich and Jason exchanging expectations for the market and macro environment in 2026 - including thoughts on the role of the Fed. Plus, a look at positioning preferences heading into the new year. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Richard Bernstein, Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA). Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today we get information on the US consumer—but unfortunately it is a mix of old data and misdirection. September personal income and spending numbers (and the consumer expenditure deflator) should show the US consumer spending even as inflation pressures have built. Since April, consumer durable goods prices have added to inflation (having previously reduced it), for instance. However consumers have cut their savings rate to cover the price increases, keeping consumption stable.

A look at the landscape for Agency RMBS and the Housing Market, including a look at the prospects for and implications of the 50-yr and portable mortgages. Featured are Clayton Triick, Head of Portfolio Management of Public Strategies with Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US labor market is, rightly, a key focus. Low fear of unemployment gave US consumers the confidence to reduce savings rates. That reduction in savings rates has paid for the US consumer price increases since April, sustaining spending. The November ADP payrolls data showed labor market weakness. The ADP numbers do not necessarily have a strong relationship with reality, but the weakness increases the focus on today’s weekly initial jobless claims data.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard contemplates whether the “Santa Rally” is still alive, or if investors should pack-up for the holiday season. Plus, a classic literature-recommendation for year-end reading.

In the wake of Zohran Mamdani's recent win as New York City's 111th mayor, Jeannine and Ted discuss CIO’s Risk Categories for the city's debt, and what investors need to know. Featured are Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, & Ted Galgano, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office.

Join Jeremy Zirin, Head of the Private Client U.S. Equity Teams with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update and outlook for U.S. equities. Host: Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist. Recorded on 25.11.19

US September import price inflation is old news, but will still be poured over by economists. Exporters do not pay tariffs in any economy—the legal liability for the tariff is that of the importer. However, exporters may discount their prices to offset tariffs, which would show up as lower pre-tariff import price. If that discounting is not taking place, the burden of the tariff passes further down the supply chain.

Alberto rejoins the podcast for a macro and positioning update for the Emerging Markets, including a look at preferences across Emerging Market equities, fixed income and currencies. Plus, a look at some notable developments to be mindful of across Latin America. Featured is Alberto Rojas, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Shane drops by for a geopolitics roundup with updates on the latest developments with respect to the Russia-Ukraine War and Venezuela. We also review the priorities of Congress through year-end and into early 2026. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japan’s 10-year government bond auction had solid demand. Normally, this would not merit attention, but international investors have been getting anxious about Japan’s debt. Domestic investors have not. Japan is wealthy, most bonds are owned domestically, and the government has a lot of practice in funding its borrowing requirements.

With fifteen relevant trading days remaining for 2025, investors over the next few weeks will be watching for key economic data releases, a potential Fed rate cut, and a possible announcement of the new Fed Chair. Jason drops by to explain what this all could mean for the markets and investment outlook. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump indicated that a nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve has been selected (though without giving a name). Senate confirmation is assumed by the markets, as none of the supposed candidates are so radical as to merit independent Senate action. Fed members have been showing increased independence in policy votes, however, which may blunt the impact of the Fed Chair on policy direction.

Phil Orlando is the Chief Market Strategist and Global Head of Investment Directors at Federated Hermes. Phil reflects on the outcomes of the November elections and shares thoughts on the potential implications to the 2026 midterms. We also discuss the potential road ahead for U.S. trade policy, along with monetary policy ahead of the December FOMC meeting. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Today, US consumers give thanks by spending money—cutting savings rates to buy things they don’t need. Retailers will discount prices, but those discounts may be tempered as retailers also strive to pass on cost increases, or to increase profit margins under the tariff narrative and pretend it is all about cost increases.

The Federal Reserve Beige Book of anecdotal evidence changed little—a stable outlook with some concerns. In the details, manufacturers and retailers expressed concerns about tariff-induced cost increases. Lags in supply chains mean that for retailers it is probably a reference to the April tariffs. The absence of hiring continues in the labor market. The willingness of high income consumers to spend was noted.

US September retail sales data were old news, but slightly softer. While it is tempting to blame the accelerating US inflation rate, retail sales are nominal numbers and include inflation effects. Pessimism should be limited, however. The numbers will almost certainly be revised. Ongoing shifts in consumption patterns have consequences (Instagrammers showcasing their latest holiday contribute less to retail sales than buyers of new washing machines). Credit card data suggests no reason to panic.

Jason drops by to explain the contributing factors to recent volatility and pullbacks across parts of the equity market, and shares expectations for the upcoming December FOMC policy meeting (now that government issued economic data is once again flowing). Plus, thoughts on how investors should position portfolios heading into year-end, and into 2026. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocated a December rate cut, citing labor markets. If Waller is seriously concerned about employment, this would be a worrying signal for the US economy, where growth depends on low unemployment fears. If this is an attempt to be picked as US President Trump’s new Fed chair, markets are likely to focus on the potential accommodation and ignore suggestions of economic risk.

Join Evan Brown, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy and Portfolio Manager for UBS Asset Management, for an assessment of the current macro and geopolitical environment. Recorded on 25.11.05