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UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Business & Economics Podcasts

UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior

Location:

United States

Description:

UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior

Language:

English


Episodes
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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More disinflation, but distorted perceptions'

6/14/2024
Yesterday’s US producer price inflation numbers added to a general sense of disinflation. However, the lower inflation reported in consumer and producer prices will not be fully experienced by consumers. The slowing fantasy price of owners’ equivalent rent does not affect real world spending power. Seasonal adjustments deliberately distort reality, and so disinflation here does not change consumers’ inflation experiences.

Duration:00:02:27

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Washington Weekly Podcast: SCOTUS rulings, Decision 2024 update & more

6/13/2024
This week Shane highlights a slate of rulings expected to be delivered in June by the Supreme Court, updates on the campaign trail (including recent and upcoming primaries), reflects on former President Trump’s visit to Capitol Hill - plus, recaps the annual Congressional baseball game! Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Duration:00:12:06

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Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 9)

6/13/2024
On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard covers a range of topics, including a potential timeline for higher for longer rates in the US, the gathering of world leaders at the G7 Summit, how the law of acceleration will change the world and economies over the next decade, and more.

Duration:00:13:00

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'US rate cuts are still coming'

6/13/2024
The Federal Reserve did nothing on rates. Investors have desperately sought additional guidance on policy, putting the fabled dot plots in focus. These black smudges on a piece of paper are really not that helpful. More Fed members think that there will be two cuts this year than anything else. Given the disinflation forces in the economy, several of those who suggested one cut likely give a high probability to two cuts.

Duration:00:02:45

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CIO First Take: May CPI data & FOMC meeting

6/12/2024
Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, for thoughts and reflections on May inflation data, along with the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Jason also speaks to the market response, and shares CIO’s positioning recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Duration:00:15:26

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Overstimulation'

6/12/2024
Economists are overstimulated by the US today. We have the excitement of US consumer price inflation. We have the excitement of a Federal Reserve policy decision. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference can be relied upon to dampen economists’ passions. The Fed is unlikely to change policy. The fabled dot plots of policy projections will add confusion (a black mark on a chart gives no sense of confidence or risk).

Duration:00:03:07

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Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - First-Half Review

6/11/2024
As mid-year approaches, we take time to reflect on fixed income performance drivers over 1H24, along with preview performance expectations for the balance of the year. We also outline expectations for monetary policy and rates, along with review positioning recommendations across fixed income. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and John Murtagh, Fixed Income Analyst Americas. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Duration:00:12:11

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Disliking uncertainty'

6/11/2024
Financial markets dislike any increase in uncertainty. Politics in Europe was judged to have increased uncertainty, and markets responded accordingly. It is the change in uncertainty that matters. The outcomes of the thousands of US elections held this November are also a source of considerable uncertainty, but, perceptions of that level of uncertainty are not changing very much.

Duration:00:02:40

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Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - And the beat goes on

6/10/2024
With growth fears last week having eased, investor confidence in a soft-landing having been reinforced, and the S&P 500 having hit an all-time-high, Jason explains why the story is likely to continue this week with the May inflation data and the FOMC meeting. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Duration:00:15:21

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The importance of participation rates'

6/10/2024
In any society experiencing a period of economic upheaval, some people do better while others do worse. The causes are complex, but those suffering want a simple explanation. This encourages scapegoat economics—blaming economic problems on a minority group. Scapegoat economics encourages prejudice politics, where politicians promise everything will be OK if that group can only be excluded. This helps explain the extremists’ success in the European elections.

Duration:00:02:54

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CIO House View Monthly Livestream (June)

6/9/2024
Hear the latest thinking and investment recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office with Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas.

Duration:00:32:53

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Top of the Morning: May Jobs report, Fed preview, & the week ahead

6/7/2024
As we close out another trading week, Brian Rose recaps the May employment data and provides a health check on the US labor market. We also preview next week’s FOMC meeting, along with some other points of interest on the US data calendar. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Duration:00:12:05

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The ECB creaks toward a cutting cycle'

6/7/2024
As expected, the ECB offered a 0.25-percentage-point rate cut, with general vagueness about the future. The rationale was also as expected—interest rates are following inflation lower. Applying the ECB’s logic to the likely path of the economy, another couple of rate cuts seem likely this year, but Lagarde was not prepared to signal that strongly at yesterday’s press conference.

Duration:00:02:40

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Washington Weekly Podcast: Remembering D-day, Dr. Fauci testimony, US Southern border

6/6/2024
This week Shane reflects on the 80th anniversary of D-day, recap’s Dr. Anthony Fauci’s Congressional testimony, updates on the latest executive action directed at the US Southern border, along with developments surrounding the Israel-Hamas War. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Duration:00:15:17

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Top of the Morning: Mexico’s Election - Outcome & Investment implications

6/6/2024
In the wake of Mexico’s election outcome earlier this week, Gaby outlines the results, weighs in on the market response, and shares the investment implications to be mindful of. Featured is Gaby Soni, Head of Investment Strategy Mexico, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Duration:00:12:34

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Cuts, continuity, clarification'

6/6/2024
There is a strong consensus about today’s ECB policy rate decision. A total of 53 out of 55 surveyed economists expect a 0.25% rate cut, and ECB Chief Economist Lane has practically promised an easing (chief economists are, of course, never wrong). The idea this year has been that most major central banks would follow inflation lower. Eurozone inflation is lower. Rate cuts are not stimulatory, but stabilizing (keeping the real interest rate steady).

Duration:00:02:21

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Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 8)

6/5/2024
On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard explains the underestimated importance of the upcoming European elections, football championships, and the Olympics, along with what investors can learn from professional athletes, coaches, and teams.

Duration:00:11:18

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Polling problems'

6/5/2024
Japan published some labor market data, with April cash earnings. On a like-for-like comparison, these were somewhat weaker than expected (and they remain negative in real terms). There are two points worth bearing in mind. An increasing share of Japanese consumers do not depend on earnings to finance consumption, because of population aging. And more of the Japanese economy has been supported by foreign consumers as tourists.

Duration:00:02:08

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How should I be positioned? with Paula Campbell Roberts (KKR) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)

6/4/2024
Paula joins Jason in-studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured is Paula Campbell Roberts, Chief Investment Strategist for Global Wealth, KKR, and Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Duration:00:32:42

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Immigration and consequences'

6/4/2024
The US provides the main data releases. JOLTS data on job vacancies is expected to continue to decline. The initial surge in vacancies in 2021 was strongly influenced by labor market churn. As that subsided, vacancy rates fell. Nominal wage growth continues to slow, which argues against a tight labor market.

Duration:00:02:25