UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Solita Marcelli is first joined by John Savercool, Head of the US Office of Public Policy, to discuss President Biden’s decision to drop out, and the impact on the race and investments. This is followed by a conversation with Justin Muzinich, CEO, Muzinich & Co., and former Deputy Secretary, US Department of the Treasury under former President Trump, discussing the Trump policy agenda and the economic implications coming out of the RNC.

As we close out another trading week, Danny Kessler drops by to reflect on this week’s abundance of Q2 corporate earnings results, notable economic data releases, plus previews what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

In the wake of Sunday’s announcement from President Biden, Shane outlines what comes next for the Democratic Party and the 2024 election cycle, including what the ticket could look like in the weeks ahead, and the role President Biden will play on the campaign trail. We also examine how the GOP has been responding to the events of the past week, and recap Monday’s Congressional testimony involving former US Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Jason Thomas rejoins Jason Draho for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy at The Carlyle Group. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Equity markets exhibited some volatility yesterday. This is not the fault of economists (there was no news of any economic note). The nature of the moves are unlikely to offer any economic signals either.

The US Dollar has been the undisputed global reserve currency for decades, though can this standing sustain? Alejo joins to weigh in on this pressing question, along with shares thoughts on alternative currencies and commodities that can thrive in a more diversified global currency environment. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Assorted business sentiment opinion polls are published, in an otherwise quiet data calendar. This, unfortunately, means that the surveys will get more attention than they deserve because talking heads have little else to talk about. Political polarization and biases in news cycles have depressed sentiment, which has tended to underperform economic reality.

Join Kiran Ganesh, Global Head of Investment Communications, Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income & Municipal Securities, Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist, & Constantin Bolz, FX Strategist.

Tune in monthly to hear from UBS Asset Management’s multi-asset team for thoughts on the global macro environment, and markets.

Tune in monthly to hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. We hear candidly from them on their views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

There is almost nothing happening on the economic data calendar today—things are so quiet even ECB President Lagarde and former US Treasury Secretary Summers are not speaking. As markets abhor a vacuum, there is a danger that idle investors may start listening to politicians.

A look at the performance of fixed income sub-sectors, along with a review of positioning recommendations. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Alina Golant, Sudip Mukherjee, Barry McAlinden, and Frank Sileo.

Following Sunday’s development of President Biden withdrawing from the 2024 race for the White House, Jason speaks to the implications to the markets, and to CIO’s investment outlook. Jason also touches on the recent ‘rotation trade’ and explains why the trade is unlikely to persist and is actually likely to reverse. Plus, a look at the current positioning recommendations from CIO per the latest UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The decision of the People’s Bank of China to cut rates by 0.1 percentage point was perhaps inevitable—even on official data, the domestic economy is lethargic. Does a small change in borrowing costs really alter anything? Arguably, China is not constrained by the cost of credit. This is a signal of policymakers’ concerns over economic growth, and perhaps represents a downpayment on future action.

After an eventful week in Milwaukee Wisconsin, Shane recaps the RNC events and speeches. We also spend time discussing what comes next in the investigation into the assassination attempt of former President Trump. Plus, thoughts on the conviction of NJ Senator Bob Menendez. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

With the first week of Q2 corporate earnings now behind us, we reflect on how the initial round of reporting is coming in. We also spend some time reviewing this week’s economic data releases, including Retail Sales, and the Fed’s Beige Book. Plus, preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

UK June retail sales were soggy, coming in below consensus (although not that many economists bother to forecast these numbers, so “consensus” is not necessarily that reliable). The weather was bad in June—there was also a rather unexpected general election campaign, but politics is not really a reason to stop shopping.

As growth and inflation trend lower, coupled with the next rate cutting cycle on the horizon, we discuss how fixed income investors should position accordingly, along with what to expect across fixed income markets in the months ahead. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Two Federal Reserve speakers signalled that interest rate cuts are coming (the tone is consistent with a September rate cut). The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of economic anecdotes strongly suggests that profit-led inflation is in full retreat (retailers are discounting to buy back customer loyalty, and customer price sensitivity is high). Growth and employment also appear to be moderating. The ECB meets today, giving Lagarde an opportunity to speak—no rate cut is expected now, but the quarter-point-a-quarter rhythm is looked for.

UK June inflation was broadly as expected, and on target. However, the popular music artist Taylor Swift had several UK concerts in June. Swifties need some place to stay. Hotel price increases were a very sizable part of June inflation. BoE Governor Bailey should ignore this effect (whether or not the governor is a Swiftie). Goods prices, and in particular durable goods prices, remain firmly in deflation. Producer price inflation was weaker than expected.