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UBS On-Air: Market Moves
Business & Economics Podcasts
UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior
Location:
United States
Description:
UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior
Language:
English
Episodes
Top of the Morning: August Jobs Report, and the week ahead
9/6/2024
The latest employment report is in - Brian stops by to provide thoughts around the health of the US labor market, and what this latest data means for the potential timing and extent of Fed rate cuts in the weeks ahead. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman
Duración:00:11:10
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The employment roulette wheel'
9/6/2024
Just one month ago, markets were panicked by the release of an unreliable labor market signal, distorted by seasonal peculiarities. Now, once again, it is time for the US employment report. The unreliability adds unpredictability to the numbers, but the expectation is for a lower unemployment rate as temporarily unemployed auto-sector workers return to work.
Duración:00:05:11
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Constraining capital'
9/5/2024
The Washington Post reports that US President Biden will prevent Japan’s Nippon Steel from acquiring US Steel, citing national security grounds. There will probably be a legal challenge to this, as national security might be hard to justify. Economic nationalism, however, is not just about trade in goods—it also often covers capital flows. Interestingly, economic nationalism goes both ways on capital flows: “how dare foreigners buy our assets?” for inflows; and “why are you not investing at home?” for outflows.
Duración:00:02:17
Washington Weekly Podcast: Legislative agenda, Decision 2024 update
9/4/2024
As Congress returns from summer recess, and the race for the White House heats up, Shane drops by to outline legislative priorities over the next few weeks, along with updates as to where polling for the White House and key Congressional races currently stands. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Duración:00:12:35
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Don’t blame the ISM'
9/4/2024
Equity markets had one of their funny turns yesterday. Some commentators, searching for scapegoats, want to blame the US ISM manufacturing sentiment poll. This seems unfair, as the ISM sentiment poll does not know what it is doing. Despite sentiment signaling five months of contraction, US manufacturing output is above where it was at the start of the year.
Duración:00:02:21
Top of the Morning: Emerging Markets - Patiently awaiting the US elections
9/3/2024
As Election Day in the US quickly approaches, Alejo stops by the studio to outline the implications of different outcome scenarios to emerging market assets. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Duración:00:14:17
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More economic nationalism'
9/3/2024
Following Canada’s decision to dramatically tax Canadian consumers of electric vehicles made in China, China has launched anti-dumping investigations into Canadian exports. “Dumping” is the deliberate sale of exports at below market price. It is not a common occurrence, but it is a convenient way of pursuing economic nationalism (per US and EU accusations of dumping against China).
Duración:00:02:05
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The ongoing rise of prejudice politics'
9/2/2024
In Germany, the far-right AfD won the largest share of the vote in Thuringia’s state elections. That and high support levels for the AfD and the far-left BSW in eastern Germany remind investors that prejudice politics is widespread and persistent. Industrial revolutions create insecurity about jobs, income, and social status. The causes are complex, but people crave simplicity. Blaming a scapegoat (scapegoat economics) offers simplicity, and encourages prejudice politics.
Duración:00:02:15
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Disinflation data'
8/30/2024
Disinflation data continues today. The US July personal consumer expenditure deflator is expected to show fairly stable inflation rates. It is worth remembering that if inflation falls because of owners’ equivalent rent, this does not change the spending power of any US household (as OER is a fiction).
Duración:00:02:39
CIO Global Livestream - After the correction
8/29/2024
In this global CIO livestream, Global Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and his colleagues from around the world will delve into the recent market volatility and subsequent corrections. They discuss the implications of these changes and share their investment outlook for the months ahead.
Duración:00:31:48
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The (dis) inflation cycle starts again'
8/29/2024
The cycle of European consumer price inflation data is about to start again (in reality, this is pretty much a perpetual cycle). The Spanish and German preliminary August numbers are due today. Both are expected to show a fairly sizable decline. That means, of course, that real interest rates are rising. The ECB should continue to chase inflation down, not to offer policy stimulus but to maintain policy stability.
Duración:00:01:48
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Micro and macro'
8/28/2024
There is little macroeconomic data today. Asian markets have been moved by corporate news, with micro evidence of additional weakness from China’s consumers. At a time of structural change, the assumptions behind macroeconomic data can become further and further removed from reality. Corporate data should be more precise, but listed companies are relatively unimportant in most economies.
Duración:00:01:49
ElectionWatch: ‘After the convention’ - DNC edition
8/27/2024
We weigh in on the state of the race and investment implications following the Democratic National Convention (DNC). Featured are Tom McLoughlin, Co-lead of ElectionWatch, CIO Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist, CIO Americas. Host: Anthony Pastore
Duración:00:33:33
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The disappearance of dumping'
8/27/2024
The rise of economic nationalism has encouraged a rise in accusations of export “dumping” (selling at a loss in foreign markets)—and China has been specifically accused of this. China’s official industrial profit growth data, if accurate, argues against general export dumping. Profits growth accelerated in July, and with domestic demand lackluster some of this must be due to exports. Accelerating profit growth is not compatible with dumping.
Duración:00:02:24
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Jackson Hole & UBS House View
8/26/2024
As we begin a new trading week, investors do so with further clarity around the course for monetary policy, namely the prospects for rate cuts in the months ahead. Jason will spend some time reflecting on last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium, along with outline the updated allocation preferences per the latest UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Duración:00:17:47
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Central bankers speaking, everywhere'
8/23/2024
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke to the Japanese Diet, and was inclined to be somewhat hawkish. There was an acknowledgement of the instability of financial markets, which is hardly surprising in the wake of recent volatility—including suggestions that BoJ action may have contributed to it. The yen strengthened modestly in the aftermath.
Duración:00:02:03
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy works with a lag'
8/22/2024
The Federal Reserve minutes make it clear that rate cuts are coming (some wanted to cut in July). The Fed is late, and is now going to have to scramble after the decline in inflation, in an undignified manner. Policy operates with a lag, so the economic benefit of these cuts will take some time to come through (policy lags are why “data dependency” is so dangerous). The Jackson Hole summer camp for central bankers gets underway, and between marshmallow roasting and campfire songs there is a chance for some interest economic papers.
Duración:00:02:08
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Getting it wrong'
8/21/2024
The US will be revising last year’s non-farm payrolls data. Markets have a heightened interest in the labor market, and these revisions are likely to be negative. However, this does not change anything about the economy. Making payrolls marginally less inaccurate is about spin, not substance. Consumers have been spending this year based on the labor market they experience, not the labour market that was reported.
Duración:00:02:14
Around the Horn: Monthly Fixed Income Roundtable with UBS Asset Management
8/20/2024
Tune in monthly to hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. We hear candidly from them on their views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.
Duración:00:21:15
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Political theater, economic muttering'
8/20/2024
US politicians are politicking. At the margin, Vice President Harris’s endorsement of the proposed increase in US corporate tax rates might seem to be market relevant. However, listed companies are not always that sensitive to headline corporate tax rates. Otherwise, this is still mainly political theater (obviously, were Taylor Swift to do an impromptu concert in Chicago, the theater would become serious).
Duración:00:01:46