NonProphets
Government
NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen. Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following: Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/ E-Mail: nonprophetspod@gmail.com (Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of any organization or its members, including any mentioned forecasting platform or organization. All content, including any written or spoken discussion, analysis, opinion, estimate, or, of course, forecast, reflects the judgment of the speaker or writer at a particular time. They are not promises or guarantees; rely on them at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and this podcast is intended to entertain (the audience and ourselves) only. Forecasts are not prophecies, and they may change substantially and/or frequently due to new facts, a new evaluation of old facts, or a myriad of other factors. In fact, it's helpful to revisit, re-evaluate, and, if necessary, revise forecasts with some frequency. You have been warned.)
Location:
United States
Description:
NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen. Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following: Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/ E-Mail: nonprophetspod@gmail.com (Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of any organization or its members, including any mentioned forecasting platform or organization. All content, including any written or spoken discussion, analysis, opinion, estimate, or, of course, forecast, reflects the judgment of the speaker or writer at a particular time. They are not promises or guarantees; rely on them at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and this podcast is intended to entertain (the audience and ourselves) only. Forecasts are not prophecies, and they may change substantially and/or frequently due to new facts, a new evaluation of old facts, or a myriad of other factors. In fact, it's helpful to revisit, re-evaluate, and, if necessary, revise forecasts with some frequency. You have been warned.)
Language:
English
Episodes
A.I. - When D.A.N. met Sydney
2/24/2023
Episode 101 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss developments in artificial intelligence with Atief's friend Nathan, a businessman and engineer who recently attended a hack-a-thon devoted to A.I. projects. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/20/2023).
(Intro: Jonathan Richman & The Modern Lovers - I Have Come Out To Play)
Duration:00:48:07
Ep. 100: Visits
6/30/2022
Episode 100 of NonProphets, in which Scott discusses his recent humanitarian/food tourist trip to Ukraine (00:17), before Atief's four-year-old daughter Beatrice decides to drop in at the end of the podcast (30:46). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 6/10/2022)
Duration:00:28:30
Ep. 99: James Bosworth on Latin American Politics
3/28/2022
In episode 99 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview superforecaster and Latin American politics expert James Bosworth. We talk with Boz about the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Latin America (2:35); authoritarian populism in Latin America (15:22); the impact of the pandemic on Latin America (19:16); the anti-incumbency wave in Latin American politics (23:22); what Jair Bolsonaro will do if he loses the upcoming election in Brazil (33:51); the prospects for addressing corruption in Latin America (45:13); and whether the US pays enough attention to the region. Boz writes about Latin American politics on Substack at Latin America Risk Report. You can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/17/22)
Duration:00:51:46
Ep. 98: Milo Jones on Intelligence Analysis
3/12/2022
In episode 98 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview Dr. Milo Jones, a Visiting Fellow at the Oxford Changing Character of War Programme as well as a Visiting Professor at the IE Business School in Madrid. He is also the author Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947-2001. We talk with Dr. Jones about the value of cognitive diversity in intelligence work (2:04); how asking the right questions can help us avoid strategic surprise (14:48); the importance of communicating intelligence analysis (24:19); whether Putin is in Zugzwang in Ukraine (31:01); whether Chinese mediation could provide an off-ramp for Putin in Ukraine (35:11); improving strategic empathy for other identities and cultures (42:02); the role of psychological profiling (56:26); and the advantages of living in a free society (1:00:20). You can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/4/22)
Duration:00:59:20
Ep. 97: Ukraine
2/27/2022
Episode 97 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, Scott, and Dr. Balkan Devlen discuss the war in Ukraine, including their forecasts of the possibility of war (1:15), the possible mindset of Putin (4:18), the way Russia's relationship with China may shape the conflict (22:29), the "Animal Farm" approach to sovereignty (22:38), and the possibility of some form of escalation (41:26). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/25/2022)
For more from the entertaining and deeply knowledgeable Dr. Devlen, you can and should check out:
https://twitter.com/BalkanDevlen
https://www.balkandevlen.com/
Hindsight 20/20 https://h2020.substack.com
Duration:01:03:17
Ep. 96: NonProphets 2022 Forecasts
1/25/2022
In this episode Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss predictions for 2022.
0:24 Pantone failure
4:06 Is 2022 unpredictable? (thanks to the Superforecaster community for suggestions)
6:00 Will the pandemic fade?
12:20 Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations: How have we changed and what are the impacts of the shift?
16:45 The conflict in Ukraine
27:15 Turkey – Erdogan and the economy
33:30 US domestic politics (More Covid),38:20 Supreme Court cases (Roe v. Wade), 45:00 Mid-term elections
52:50 What will be the biggest stories of 2022?
59:05 Urea!
You can find NonProphets on Blubrry, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher and Google Play. As always, if you have questions, ideas for future episodes, or would like to suggest a possible black swan event, you can use our contact page or e-mail us at (nonprophetspod [at] gmail.com). If you enjoy this podcast, please rate us and recommend us to your friends.
Duration:00:59:20
Forecasting the Pantone 2022 Color of the Year
12/6/2021
Episode 95 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of forecasting the Pantone Color of the Year. They demonstrate their borderline peerless knowledge of fashion and design trends, as well as the "zeitgeist," before making their final predictions (38:34). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 12/3/2021)
Duration:00:37:20
Triumphant Return for Some Quick Advice
11/20/2021
Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, and Scott Eastman talk about where Atief's family should move and why
Duration:00:40:15
Ep. 93: Kjirste Morrell Interview
6/19/2021
Episode 93 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview fellow superforecaster Kjirste Morrell. Kjirste is a mechanical engineer and was interviewed for Adam Grant's recent bestseller Think Again. We discuss forecasting from an engineer's perspective (0:10); the value of comments on a forecasting question (4:30); what Kjirste meant by the phrase "the joy of being wrong" (8:35); how to combat bias in forecasting (14:05); a couple of tricky, longer-term Metaculus questions (29:15); how many people will have set foot on the moon by 2030 (46:25); and Kjirste's experience working on the Segway at Dean Kamen's DEKA Research. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 5/14/2021)
Duration:00:41:04
Ep. 92: Forecasts Inherently Have No Value
5/11/2021
Episode 92 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Scott and Robert interview John Bravender, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warning coordination meteorologist at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Scott and Robert talk to John about what they forecast at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (01:04); how they forecast hurricanes (04:45); what a "spaghetti plot" is (13:47); how they evaluate the accuracy of hurricane forecasts (16:06); how they make sure they communicate their forecasts in a useful way (24:32); how to communicate low-probability-high-impact events (29:55); why they don't use the term "vivid lightning" (41:36); why forecasts inherently have no value (44:42); and how to prepare communities to be resilient (55:41). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/30/2021)
Duration:01:01:18
Ep. 91: Get the Damn Vaccine
3/25/2021
Episode 91 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about their experiences with the vaccine rollout and when they think things are likely to return to normal (01:40); the prospects for bipartisan legislation in US politics (37:06); and whether it depends on filibuster reform in the US Senate (44:45). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/20/2021)
Duration:00:52:30
Ep. 90: Illuminating The Final Days
1/17/2021
Episode 90 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the final days of the Trump presidency and the aftermath of the attack on the Capitol. They take a victory lap for predicting one of the 2021 Pantone colors of the Year (1:35); look back to their 2016 forecasts for the Trump administration (Episode 16), and look forward at how the Biden will compare (5:00); give their prognosis for whether Biden will encounter anything as serious as the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic (14:30); discuss how much the threat of violence informs congressional decisions (23:30) and the future of the Republican Party and of Trumpism. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 1/10/2021)
Duration:01:02:54
Ep. 89: This Podcast About the Election Is Disputed
11/29/2020
Episode 89 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss US election results and forecast the 2021 Pantone color of the year. They talk about what happened in the US election (01:51); what will happen in the Senate special elections in Georgia (09:26); whether polls are any good (14:04); the paranoid style in American politics (21:31); whether Joe Biden can govern a divided country (28:14); who Donald Trump will pardon (this podcast was recorded before the Trump pardoned Michael Flynn) (32:22); how American democracy performed in the election (34:49); and what the 2021 Pantone color of the year will be (43:42). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/21/2020)
Duration:01:02:21
Ep. 88: The Election
10/31/2020
Episode 88 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the election advertising that they've experienced (00:47), before diving into the upcoming US election (07:32), including discussing QAnon, the possibility of right- and left-wing violence, and the possible effects of the pandemic on the results (30:55). They close by giving their electoral votes predictions (49:05). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 10/24/2020)
Duration:00:56:30
Ep. 87: Old Is New Again
9/29/2020
Episode 87 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the breaking news about Trump's tax returns (00:52) before debating the probability of a dramatic rise in right-wing violence (21:14), and the effects of Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court in the context of Roe vs. Wade (47:42) and a possible return to the Lochner Era (54:32). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/27/2020)
Duration:01:05:59
Ep. 86: Doing the Wrong Thing
7/28/2020
Episode 86 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief (00:40), Robert (07:22), and Scott (11:29) catch up on what they've been up to over the last few months, and then discuss Camus and the effects of Covid-19 (17:38). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 7/18/2020)
Duration:01:05:33
Ep. 85: Justin Crow Interview: Superforecaster and Social Epidemiologist
4/16/2020
Episode 85 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview Justin Crow, superforecaster and Director of the Division of Social Epidemiology for the Virginia Department of Health. We talk with Justin about social epidemiology and how it's relevant to understanding the Covid-19 pandemic (00:40); Liberty University's return to school (05:40); the CDC CASPER household survey and testing to help determine when we can safely relax stay at home and social distancing orders (12:30); the prospect of Covid-19 spreading to rural areas (21:00); how to control Covid-19 and still enjoy life (23:20); when should society re-open (36:40); and his recommendations (44:50). Justin's comments are his private opinions and should not be taken as official statements or policy of the Virginia Department of Health. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/5/2020)
Duration:00:50:10
Ep. 84: Third Times The Plague
3/30/2020
Episode 84 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The podcast begins with an inside view of the Good Judgment / Open Philanthropy public site where forecasts and analysis of where the US and the world will be in one year are discussed. Atief's view from the heartland (Missouri) (4:50), Scott's view of the Romanian response and Robert's perspective on Hawaii, contrast how the disease is progressing and how disparate governments and cultures are responding. Travel restrictions (20:00) and stay at home orders are being implemented, but how are they received? The moral question of whether to send or not to send whiskey to a friend during an epidemic is broached. A wager (45:55) on who will get the virus first wraps up this episode. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 3/22/2020)
Duration:01:01:10
Ep. 83: The Chips are Down
3/21/2020
Episode 83 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the Covid-19 virus from the perspectives of Scott in Romania (1:48), Robert in Hawaii (19:44), and Atief in Missouri (36:50). They close with two age-old questions: how many monkeys is this? (44:06); and, why wasn't Jared unleashed sooner? (50:57). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. Note that this was recorded on 3/14/2020, and, while much of it remains relevant, it does not reflect the many legislative and social changes over the past week. OTBMFE.
Duration:00:52:33
Ep. 82: American Democracy Under Siege (Michael Signer Interview)
2/29/2020
Episode 82 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview former Charlottesville mayor Michael Signer about his new book, Cry Havoc: Charlottesville and American Democracy Under Siege. We talk to Mike about why he thinks American democracy is under siege (00:43); what makes President Trump a demagogue (07:48); whether the Electoral College can protect us from demagogues (11:52); how the national political climate affected events in Charlottesville (19:45); the importance of respecting people we disagree with in politics (22:58); whether constitutionalism can prevail against demagoguery (36:59); and why Mike endorsed Pete Buttigieg for president (43:35). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/21/2020)
Duration:00:52:43