Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

India, 1930. Sarojini Naidu is marching towards a British-controlled saltwork; behind her is a long column of protestors all dressed in white. The great campaigner for India's Independence, Gandhi, is now in jail. In his place, he's chosen Naidu to lead this movement against the hard and fearsome British Empire. Naidu and her marchers want change, and they want to achieve it peacefully. India's fate, they believe, depends on a non-violent path to resistance. Today, there will be violence. But it won't come from them. This is the final episode in a four-part series about how to succeed without being a jerk. This episode is based on David Bodanis' forthcoming book How To Change The World, which is scheduled to be published in late 2025. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Early morning, April 1789. Captain Bligh is abruptly dragged from his cabin. Wrists bound, bayonet pressed to his chest, he and a few loyal sailors are forced into a tiny launch and set adrift on the vast Pacific Ocean. This far from land, no-one is likely to survive for long. History remembers Captain Bligh as a cruel, petty tyrant. The reality is more complicated. Bligh championed rational thought and showed his men great kindness on that famous voyage on the Bounty - yet it ended in mutiny. So what went wrong? This is the third episode in a four-part series about fairness. It's based on David Bodanis' excellent book The Art of Fairness: The Power of Decency In A World Turned Mean. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the beautiful mountain town of Idyllwild, a wealthy widow named Dia Abrams suddenly vanishes from her home. She leaves behind her idyllic ranch, estranged children and a messy legal battle. Two men in her life, her son and a man who claims to be her fiance, launch public campaigns to find her. But soon, their efforts – and stories – begin to unravel. Enjoy this episode from Where's Dia? -- available wherever you listen to podcasts. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Paul Starrett has just won a major building contract. If everything goes according to plan, this will be the tallest building in the world. But will everything go according to plan? This prestigious new project will have Starrett's biggest workforce yet. Everyone will need to pull together, but labour relations in the United States have been rough. There have been tens of thousands of strikes in recent years, many ending in shootings and arbitrary mass arrests. Something else is bothering Starrett too: enormous steel-framed buildings normally take three or four years to complete. The deadline on this one? Just thirteen months. This is the second episode in a four-part series about how to succeed without being a jerk. It's based on David Bodanis' excellent book The Art of Fairness: The Power of Decency in a World Turned Mean. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Leo Durocher would stop at nothing to win. The baseball player-turned-manager was a skilled tactician and famously tough. But he also cheated, intimidated umpires and was violent; he was even known to beat up fans. Durocher was famous for coining the phrase "nice guys finish last" - but is that really true? Tim Harford and David Bodanis examine lessons from the life of a ruthless, pugnacious baseball star. This is the first episode of a four-part series about how to succeed without being a jerk. It's based on David's book The Art of Fairness: The Power of Decency in a World Turned Mean. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tim Harford's life has been building up to this moment. In this Cautionary Conversation, he discusses the works of his favorite author J.R.R. Tolkien and the social science at play in Amazon Prime's series The Rings of Power. What do elves and whistleblowers have in common? How can evil hide in plain sight? And where do orcs come from? This episode is sponsored by Amazon Prime's The Rings of Power. Season 2 of The Rings of Power is available to watch on Prime Video from August 29th. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Young doctor Jesse Lazear has deadly Yellow Fever. He thrashes around and convulses in his sick bed, and his vomit is black. He is just 34 when he dies. Curiously, mosquito expert Lazear was researching the disease when he became ill. Some historians think his infection wasn't an accident, and that he was secretly experimenting on himself... Today, human challenge trials - where volunteers are intentionally given a disease under the watchful eye of medical support - are rare. The authorities are wary of the risks involved. But such trials can also mean that vaccines are developed faster and thousands of lives are saved. Is it time to start thinking differently about experimenting on humans? For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cautionary Conversation: Steve Jobs hated his phone so much that he smashed it against a wall. He also referred to mobile carriers as "orifices". Yet he went on to invent the world's most popular smartphone. Why did he change his mind? Tim Harford and organizational psychologist Adam Grant (Think Again, Hidden Potential) discuss the consequences of letting our ideas become part of our identity; when it's essential to adapt; and whether frogs really do stay sitting in slowly boiling water. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Legends are made at the Olympics and this summer shows across the Pushkin network are bringing their unique takes to Olympic stories. This special episode includes excerpts from a few: a Cautionary Tale about underestimating female marathoners, a Jesse Owens story from Revisionist History’s series on Hitler’s Olympics, and—from What’s Your Problem—the new technology that’s helping Olympic athletes get stronger. Check out other show feeds as well, the Happiness Lab and A Slight Change of Plans are also going to the Games. Sylvia Blemker of Springbok Analytics on What’s Your Problem The Women Who Broke the Marathon Taboo on Cautionary Tales Hitler’s Olympics from Revisionist History See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The disappearance and death of Mitrice Richardson remains Malibu, CA’s most baffling unsolved case. It’s been nearly 14 years since her remains were discovered in a remote canyon, and still, no one has been held accountable for her demise. To this day, her death remains an unsolved mystery. The truth lies in the remote Malibu community where Mitrice was last seen. And now, finally, people are starting to talk. Enjoy this episode from Lost Hills: Dark Canyon. Available wherever you listen to podcasts. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Panic has erupted in the cockpit of Air France Flight 447. The pilots are convinced they’ve lost control of the plane. It’s lurching violently. Then, it begins plummeting from the sky at breakneck speed, careening towards catastrophe. The pilots are sure they’re done-for. Only, they haven’t lost control of the aircraft at all: one simple manoeuvre could avoid disaster… In the age of artificial intelligence, we often compare humans and computers, asking ourselves which is “better”. But is this even the right question? The case of Air France Flight 447 suggests it isn't - and that the consequences of asking the wrong question are disastrous. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Until the 1960s, it was deemed too "dangerous" for women athletes to run distances longer than 200m - and a marathon would kill them, or leave them unable to have children. Rubbish, of course. But when Kathrine Switzer signed up for the 1967 Boston Marathon, it wasn't the distance that bothered her - it was the enraged race director trying to assault her. Thanks to pioneers like Kathrine, women have made huge strides in long distance running - and are now challenging the times of men in the very races they were banned from for so very long. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com. Check out more Olympics related content from Pushkin Industries and iHeartPodcasts here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Adi and Rudi Dassler made sports shoes together - until a feud erupted between them. They set up competing companies, Adidas and Puma, and their bitter rivalry divided the sporting world, their family and even the inhabitants of their home town. The Dassler clan turned bickering into an art form - even drawing the likes of soccer legend Pele into their dispute. But did the brilliant fires of hatred produce two world-class companies, or was it a needless distraction from the Dasslers' love for their craft? For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com. Check out more Olympics related content from Pushkin Industries and iHeartPodcasts here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the middle of the Pacific Ocean, in 1819, Owen Chase is standing on a slowly sinking ship. It's just been headbutted by an 85 foot whale. It's taking in water. And now the creature is coming back for another go. This is a whaling ship, and Chase is convinced that he observes "fury and vengeance" in the animal. In 2010, an orca is performing for a crowd at SeaWorld - but he misses his mark and so he doesn't get his reward. That's when he grabs hold of his trainer, Dawn Brancheau, and pulls her under water. By the time he's finished, her savaged body has multiple fractures and dislocations. And her scalp has been ripped off. To some observers, these whales were surely out for revenge. But how much is what we think we understand about the natural world shaped by human guilt? For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tim Harford is joined by Jacob Goldstein to answer your questions. Does winning the lottery make you unhappy? Is Bitcoin bad for the economy? When does correlation imply causation? And what will Tim and Jacob do when the robot overlords come for their jobs? We love hearing from you, so please keep your questions coming: tales@pushkin.fm. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neatly dressed in his suit, Hans Ferdinand Mayer was every inch the unassuming corporate executive. So, when he asked to borrow a typewriter from his hotel in Oslo, nobody could have guessed he would use it for one of the most extraordinary intelligence leaks in history. Mayer's gloved fingers punched out the details of Nazi Germany's most sensitive military operations and, when he had finished, he immediately dispatched his documents to the British — who did nothing. Why did the British ignore Mayer? Did they fail to pick out a crucial signal amid the noise of detail — or was something else going on? This episode of Cautionary Tales is based, with permission, on Tom Whipple’s book The Battle of the Beams, which is available from all good booksellers. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sam Israel had a problem. The investors in his hedge fund, Bayou Capital, were expecting spectacular returns. Sam himself had spent years proclaiming the fund's brilliant results. But in reality, Sam had been marking his own homework, publishing fraudulent accounts and using these to lure in new investors. What to do? Well, the logical thing of course: wait around for an extraordinary profitable streak, and in the meantime keep up the ruse... This episode of Cautionary Tales was recorded live at the Bristol Festival of Economics and studies three incredible investment scams. How do pyramid and ponzi schemes snowball out of control, flattening victim and fraudster alike? For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bonus: When Spanish conquistadors arrived in Peru in 1526, it was the beginning of the end for the Inca. Their bloody pursuit of gold, fame and fortune was rife with treachery and deceit. Within a few short years, the once-thriving Inca empire had been decimated. Tim Harford is joined by Dan Snow for a special crossover episode of Cautionary Tales and Dan Snow's History Hit. Tim and Dan first recap the spectacular defeat of the French knights at the Battle of Crécy in 1346, and then draw surprising parallels with the fall of the Inca Empire two centuries later. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nicolae Ceaușescu was not beloved. His regime was vicious and he treated Romania as his personal wallet: while Ceaușescu emptied the coffers to construct a vast, ornate palace, his people starved. He imposed disastrous population control policies on his country, too, which saw hundreds of thousands of unwanted children left to rot in squalid orphanages. Ceaușescu's rule endured for a quarter of a century - then crumbled overnight. How do dictatorships unravel? In a second episode, Tim Harford partners with HBO's new series "The Regime" to investigate real-life dictatorships and the social science that explains them. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Why are so many autocrats germaphobes? Why was the truth so dangerous for Soviet engineers? And what can salami reveal to us about the mind of Vladimir Putin? This is the first of two special episodes in partnership with HBO's new series "The Regime". Tim Harford investigates real-life dictatorships and the social science that explains them, drawing on insights from game theory and psychology. For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.