Decisive Point Podcast

Andrea Malouf, a consultant and adviser, discusses her article, “Iraq’s Ministry of Interior: NATO, Capability Building, and Reform.” She emphasizes the importance of defining clear end states for successful reform, avoiding a sole focus on training, making strategic decisions based on practical constraints, questioning assumptions and biases, collaborating with partner organizations, understanding public perceptions, and conducting thorough assessments for effective reform efforts. Malouf advocates for a comprehensive and strategic approach to institutional reform that prioritizes public perception and alignment with objectives. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol54/iss2/8/ E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: Iraq, Ministry of Interior, institutional reform, security sector reform, NATO

American accounts of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) contend that it is a coherent grand strategy that reflects Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions. These accounts ignore the BRI’s fragmented nature, whereby Chinese provinces have been pivotal actors in its development and implementation. Furthermore, these accounts disregard the agency of participant countries and their capacity to shape the BRI. This article illustrates this fragmentation and agency by studying the Yunnan province and its domestic and international neighbors. It contends that these dynamics indicate that the BRI lacks coherence and that Beijing’s capacity to extract geopolitical benefits will remain limited. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol54/iss2/4/ E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: China, Belt and Road, fragmented authoritarianism, geopolitics

Russia will dominate information warfare if the United States does not treat disinformation as central to Russian strategy. This podcast examines the vital role disinformation played in post–Cold War Russian strategy, including its strategy in the current Russia-Ukraine War, and in a departure from previous scholarship, this podcast observes that US defense leaders are aware of Russian disinformation but have failed to assess its impact or sufficiently negate Russian influence. The podcast also suggests proactive ways to counter Russia’s disinformation strategy. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol54/iss2/6/ Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, information operations, disinformation, information literacy

The China Landpower Studies Center Director Richard Butler and Joshua Arostegui, the center’s research director

The China Landpower Studies Center Director Richard Butler and Joshua Arostegui, the center’s research director and chair, discuss the center’s research agenda. Previously, Butler outlined the center’s mission and how the research agenda answers large campaign questions across the perspectives of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the United States, and US allies and partners. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol54/iss1/12/ Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: China, Landpower, People ’s Liberation Army, Chinese Communist Party, protracted war

Strengthening ties with Taiwan is the best chance the United States has to preserve the liberal international order in Asia and improve its security relative to China. This study offers a normative perspective on how Taiwan can contribute to US-led international institutions and the Asian regional order and reduce conflict risk. It concludes with recommendations for the United States and its partners to integrate Taiwan into multilateral institutions in Asia. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol54/iss1/6/ Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: US foreign policy, China, Taiwan, Indo-Pacific, rules-based order

The essay this podcast episode is based on sets the stage for the Strategic Studies Institute’s research on the growing importance of South Korea to the US alliance system and security objectives across the Indo-Pacific region, provides reasons why South Korea may become commensurate with Japan as the region’s primary US ally, and proposes ways the United States should leverage this reality to maximize this relationship and maintain a free and open Pacific. This important analysis challenges the orthodox view of South Korea as a self-contained problem set with little relevance to other regional security issues and explains its underappreciated connections to regional stability. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol53/iss2/15/ Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: South Korea, North Korea, Indo-Pacific (INDOPACOM), armistice agreement, security, nuclear, Russia-Ukraine War, national defense

This podcast examines the international law of self-defense as it applies to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict to determine whether the October 2023 attacks by Hamas against Israel can be interpreted under Article 51 of the UN Charter as an “armed attack” that gives Israel the right to use military force in self-defense against non-state actors. It situates the conflict within ongoing legal and political debates, shows how this conflict fits into a changing global reality where the most dangerous security threats do not exclusively emanate from other states and concludes that Israel’s resort to force in the current conflict appears to have a sound basis in international law. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol54/iss1/7/. Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: self-defense, international law, non-state actors, Israel, Hamas

This article argues that the People’s Republic of China uses its police and internal security forces as a nontraditional means of projecting strategic Landpower in the Indo-Pacific and Central Asia. Instead of limiting analysis of China’s power projection to military forces, this article employs new data on Chinese police engagements abroad to fill a gap in our understanding of the operating environment in Asia. Policymakers will gain an understanding of how these activities enhance China’s presence, partnerships, and inf luence across the region to inform the development of recommendations for a more effective response. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol54/iss1/5/ Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: China, strategic Landpower, internal security, security force assistance, police

Domestic constraints make it difficult for the United States to pursue a coherent program of restraint in the Middle East. As events in Gaza revive debates about the appropriate size and scope of the military footprint in the region, this article shows the importance of grounding any revised posture on a firm domestic foundation. Going beyond accounts that blame the obstructionism of a foreign policy establishment, it explores barriers to strategic adjustment and supports its claims through a case study of the Obama administration’s record, drawn from relevant literature, data on the distribution of military capabilities, and interviews with senior officials. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol54/iss1/8/ Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: Middle East, restraint, public opinion, domestic politics, polarization, civil-military relations Download the transcript: https://media.defense.gov/2024/May/01/2003454360/-1/-1/0/DP-5-4-PAYNE-TRANSCRIPT.PDF

Self-deterrence is critically understudied in deterrence theory. Similarly, deterrence practitioners prefer to focus on adversaries’ threats rather than seeking to account for the full scope of fears influencing the decision calculus of policymakers. Through historical case studies, this article identifies where self-deterrence has occurred, highlights the benefits of incorporating the concept in future strategic planning and intelligence assessments, and recommends that policymakers, strategists, and analysts acknowledge self-deterrence as an important factor when preparing for future wars. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol54/iss1/9/ Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: deterrence, self-deterrence, chemical weapons, nuclear weapons, decision making

This article proposes a new definition of strategy as problem-solving that challenges the focus on goals and assumptions of order within many post–Cold War approaches to strategy. It argues that the military needs strategy to diagnose the complex problems of the twenty-first century before they can be solved. Inspired by practitioners such as Andrew Marshall and George F. Kennan, this new definition clarifies what strategists do and offers a logic for distinguishing the use of the term strategy. Practitioners will also find problem-solving tools and pedagogies they can adopt today. Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: complexity, Andrew Marshall, George F. Kennan, problem-solving, strategy

New strategic art is required to maneuver political economies to meet the demands of future engagements and campaigns. Current discussions of the projection of political-economic power are typically abstract, high-level, and policy-focused or present singular tactical actions as strategic actions, creating a gap for campaign practitioners. This article addresses the gap by drawing on Joint Planning, Joint Publication 5-0, and Joint Campaigns and Operations, Joint Publication 3-0, to further develop the concept and methodologies first introduced in the author’s earlier article “Multidimensionality: Rethinking Power Projection for the 21st Century.” Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol54/iss1/4/ Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: sanctions, political-economic power, Russia, Ukraine, China

If the United States and its allies seek to deny Vladimir Putin an objective victory in the Russia-Ukraine War, they must commit to providing sufficient aid to the Ukrainian army soon because the window of opportunity to provide sufficient resources is narrow—and closing. This article argues that the West must articulate a reasonable strategy for Ukrainian victory now, as a failure in Ukraine will weaken relationships between the United States and Western European states and their global partners while emboldening state and non-state actors to threaten the rules-based international order. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol54/iss1/3/ Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: Ukraine, Russia, NATO, Europe, security force assistance

Retired United States general and flag officers participate politically as individuals and in groups. Purportedly, participation damages civil-military relations. This article argues these activities, including but not limited to endorsements of candidates, do little harm to US democratic institutions and to the nonpartisan reputation of the military institution. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol53/iss4/15/. Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: civil-military relations, general officers, promotions, flag officers, political participation

To compete effectively for global influence, US Army and defense planners should focus on economic globalization in addition to security interests when assessing potential foreign military partners. The results of a quantitative analysis of US-led exercise participants between 1990 and 2016 demonstrate the variety of interests, including economic, that underly a partner’s decision to train or not with US forces. Since the US Army bills itself as the “partner of choice,” this piece will interest military and policy practitioners involved in strategically assessing potential international military partners. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol53/iss4/13/ Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: economic interests, globalization, strategic competition, multinational exercises, bilateral exercises

The China Landpower Studies Center will open in 2024. It is intended to be an approachable organization. It will tackle the complex and pressing questions about China’s emergence as a global power and its implications for the US military and provide senior leaders and practitioners with a better understanding of the strategies, capabilities, and the integration of the PLA into the CCP’s campaign to turn the rules-based international order to its advantage. Further, the Center will share insights and recommendations for developing better deterrence strategies and campaigns for the United States and our allies Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol53/iss4/16/ Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: China, Taiwan, Philippines, South China Sea, China Landpower Studies Center

Reflexive control aims to change the other’s perceptions about their utility sets. It contains underlying elements that could help give structure to analyses of strategic behavior by using a nonlinear approach that aims to improve the quality of assessments. This podcast explores the interpretations of the concept of reflexive control, how elements of ref lexive control link to the more widely accepted body of knowledge, and how these elements could be valuable additions to the current work on the analysis of strategic behavior. E-mail usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: reflexive control, strategic behavior, strategic analysis, nonlinearity, complex adaptive system

This podcast enters the debate on American grand strategy by questioning the logic underpinning offshore balancing. It concludes that the United States is an ambivalent balancer due to the stopping power of water. It builds on the relevant literature in international relations, producing a novel set of theoretical propositions that are applied to the contemporary Middle East. There and elsewhere, the United States could fail to maintain the balance of power when it is most threatened.

A change in deterrence thought and strategy is necessary to avoid nuclear escalation in armed conflict with Russia. Traditional threat-based deterrence strategies will not be successful, and a new strategy must address the conditions that might cause Russian leadership to employ nuclear weapons. An examination of the Able Archer 83 exercise using an original framework highlights the ways Russian interests and US actions interact to generate misperception and inhibited deterrence. The US military must execute extremely restrained, deliberate, and empathetic operations that pursue minimalist military objectives to achieve the political goal. Read the article here: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol53/iss4/10/ Email usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@army.mil to give feedback on this podcast or the genesis article. Keywords: deterrence, nuclear, misperception, Russia, multidomain operations