Geopolitical Horizons

Just 6 months ago Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League secured a fourth consecutive term in office, but now the ruling party faces its biggest challenge yet as hundreds and thousands have taken to the streets in protest against the quota system that reserves government jobs for regime supporters. The regime has responded in brutal fashion, cutting the internet and instituting a curfew. Bangladesh has for long been touted as a rising tiger economy, but the masses are struggling to make ends meet. Is this the beginning of the end of Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League?

In the last week social media blew up with news regarding the unwritten petrodollar deal between the US and Saudi Arabia, which has been the bedrock of the dollar's dominance, coming to an end. The demise of the dollar has been a regular feature of discussion in geopolitics in the last decade. On the one hand we have China and Russia calling for alternatives and on the other hand you have US commentators questioning the dollar's continued dominance. What does this mean for the US as a global power? Will this be the end of the American Empire?

In this podcast we cover the questions you had for us at the geopolity. From the Gaza war to the war in Ukraine, as well as the UK elections and who the deep state are in the US.

In a recent report by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, they concluded the bedrocks of democracy are under threat across the globe. They found democracy is in decline around the world, including Europe, where it was born. The report comes alongside a long line of similar reports, research and analysis that show democracy is in retreat. Democracy was for long presented as the nirvana, the ultimate form of government, the west invaded nations to export democracy, but today its own people seem to be losing confidence in this mediaeval idea. How has it all gone so horribly wrong?

The 15th May will see many commemorating “Nakba Day”, marking the catastrophe of the Palestinians with the creation of the Zionist nation. The Nakba has stood as a grim marker of the Zionist's criminality for 76 years. But these last 6 months have surpassed anything that came previously. Israel is now assaulting the last area of Gaza in Rafah, and the numbers injured and killed continue to grow. In this podcast Umar Hussain from Palestine looks back at the events that led to the Nakba and Jameel Khan assesses where things currently stand in Gaza.

South Asia is one of the fastest growing regions in the world. It is also one of the most populated parts of the world that has two nuclear powers. Russia, China and the US are all looking to win the support of the region for their respective strategic interests which makes the region all the more important to understand.

The world's largest democracy goes to the polls from the 19th April to the 1st June to elect the Indian parliament. The election will be held in several stages and see’s the incumbent Narendra Modi looking to secure a third term in office. The BJP has now been in power for a decade and is looking to cement its legacy and leave its mark on India. Whoever wins the elections faces some major challenges from the economy to energy to communal relations.

Central Asia was once the prize in the so-called Great Game, a centre of competition for the Russians, British, Persians, Mongols and Turks at various times. The region sits at the intersection of the Russian steppes, the western Chinese frontier, the mountain passes into the Indian subcontinent, and the modern Middle East. The region is at once a barrier and a bridge between the powers in its periphery. It is a path for trade and a highway for invasion, a vast strategic buffer and a cauldron of ethnic and national competition and instability. In this podcast we look at the geopolitics of Central Asia.

With global power shifting to the East it become even more important to understand this region, its history, geopolitics and future role.

The 3rd March 2024 marks the 100 year anniversary of the demise of the Khilafah. The decades leading up to the 3rd March 1924, was a difficult period for the global leadership of the Muslims, as various European powers were competing with each other over Arabia, North Africa, the Balkans and the Black sea. Today, 100 years on Capitalism's supremacy is running out of steam. As we fast approach the quarter point of the 21st century, the forward march of liberal values, the dominance of democracy and the liberal economic order are all on life support. The West is now struggling to justify why we should all be liberals. Across the Muslim world the demand for Islamic governance remains high, something recognised by successive polls and surveys. In the context of liberal values struggling to deliver, does the Khilafah 100 years since its demise still present a new opportunity for nearly 2 billion Muslims? Will its resurrection be able to work in the 21st century?

Russia spectacular failure to conquer the Ukrainian capital two years ago is now a distant memory. On the two year anniversary since Russia’s invasion, Ukraine is running out of troops as well as western support and calls for negotiations are only growing. US and European attempts to sanction, isolate and cripple Russia have failed to succeed. The broad support from the West that promised ‘as long as it takes’ has now given way to war fatigue. A Western-Ukrainian victory is looking allusive on the second anniversary of the conflict.

With so much going on currently in the world in this podcast we can look at multiple geopolitical issues.

Elections, wars, coups, tech wars and trade wars are just some of the trends that will likely shape the new year. In this podcast we look at the key issues that will likely shape the geopolitical landscape in 2024.

In this podcast we preview the forthcoming annual geopolity report, Strategic Estimate 2024

2024 will be a bumper year for elections. There are scheduled to be 76 national elections, across the world, with over 4 billion people going to the polls. Some of the world's most powerful nations will have elections next year as well as a number of strategic nations. The outcome of many of these will have global repercussions and will shape relations into the 2030s.

It's been over a month since the events of 7th October where a number of Palestinian resistance groups launched an assault into Southern Israel. Israel responded with a broad invasion of the Gaza Strip and the images that continue to beam out have led to much criticism of Israel, due to the mounting civilian casualties. What is Israel's end game? Is the two state solution dead? Has public opinion turned against Israel? Who’s winning the information war?

It has been over a week since the events of 7 Oct, where various groups from the Gaza Strip carried out an audacious operation into Southern Israel. Hamas and various other groups captured army bases, hostages and soldiers. Israel is still shocked and they have called it there 9/11 and a ground invasion of the Gaza strip is imminent. This will have major implications for the region and beyond and in this podcast we unpack it all.

The Middle East seems to always be in the news. From monarchies, to oil, to war to terrorism. Very rarely does a day go by without the Middle East being in the news. On amazon.com the Middle East is the most written about topic. How do we make sense of this complex region? Who are the key players? What are the long-term trends?

With its countless ethnic groups, tribes, languages and nations, Africa is not just a huge continent but a very diverse one. The countries in Africa share a history of foreign exploitation and a legacy of poverty and corruption as well as stifled political development that has prevented the African people from capitalising on their economic potential. In this podcast we look at the geopolitics of Africa.

Semiconductors are fast becoming the oil of the 21st century. They are what allow us to get all the power and speed in things like smartphones, tablets, digital TVs, wireless communications infrastructure, network hardware, computers and many more devices which have smart capabilities. The supply chain for semiconductors is critical, similar to how the supply chain for oil was in the 20th century. Last Year US president Biden placed an embargo on the export of advanced semiconductor chips and equipment to China and so now there is in effect an arms race on semiconductors.