Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack

Join Mark Penn for an in-depth analysis of the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll results that reveal a dramatic shift in the political landscape. As President Biden prepares to leave office with his lowest approval rating since 2022, President-Elect Trump enters with majority support. We'll break down the numbers behind voter priorities on inflation and immigration, analyze public sentiment toward Trump's cabinet picks and policy proposals, and explore voter attitudes on everything from social media regulation to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Don't miss this comprehensive look at where America stands at this historic transition of power. Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

The poll shows that Trump won over Harris by 2 points, driving the core issues of inflation and immigration most salient to the majority of Americans. Republicans closed in on the Democratic advantage of early and mail-in voting. Voters primarily relied on TV news channels for election coverage, followed by social media, and are split on whether coverage was biased. Looking ahead to the new administration, voters are divided on perceptions of Trump but want him to prioritize tackling inflation. “This was an election about issues, and the economy and immigration played the biggest roles. Trump won on a clear message of middle- and working-class economics,” saidMark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “But while he’s won over people up to 54% and Republicans are supportive of his policies, he has to be careful in over-projecting his mandate – underneath is still a division of the election that has not yet resolved itself.” Read the Full Results Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

The poll was conducted October 11-13, 2024, among 3,145 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll. As part of the sample, 2,596 likely voters and 898 battleground state voters were also interviewed. The new poll found that the presidential horserace remains close at 49-48, with Harris leading and up 1 point from September. Trump, however, leads in battleground states among registered, likely, and early voters. The poll also covers public opinion on policy issues and foreign affairs. Other key findings include: HORSERACE HAS HARRIS +1 BUT TRUMP LEADING IN BATTLEGROUND STATES 81% of registered voters say they will definitely vote in the election (Democrat: 85%; Republican: 84%; Independent: 72%). Harris holds a 1.7-point lead among likely voters, but in battleground states, Trump has a 2-point lead among both likely and registered voters. There is a 10-point gender gap with female voters favoring Harris. The gap for Latino voters has widened from 7 points in September to 17 points (Harris: 54%; Trump: 37%; Don’t Know/Unsure: 9%). 50% of voters say they will vote on Election Day, 45% say they will vote early, and 5% do not plan to vote. Mail-in voting behavior is nearly even across party ID (Democrat: 49%; Republican: 42%; Independent: 44%), markedly different from that in November 2020 (Democrat: 54%; Republican: 35%; Independent: 45%). Among those voting early, 51% voted for Harris and 43% voted for Trump (in battleground states, Trump: 48%; Harris: 47%). 14% of voters say they are still weighing their choices, including 25% of Independents. Democrats and Republicans remain neck-in-neck in the congressional election (Democrat: 51%; Republican: 49%). CANDIDATE STRENGTHS ON THE ISSUES CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY Trump’s perceived policy stances align more with those of the general public on issues like tougher law enforcement and opposition to open borders, the switch to electric vehicles, free healthcare for illegal immigrants, and men who have transitioned to women competing in women’s sports. 63% of voters are against a national ban on abortion. Most believe Harris is against such a ban (73%, +1 from September) and Trump is for it (54%, -1). Though many voters say Harris is to the left (53%) and Trump is to the right (50%) of them politically, 59% say they would rather vote for someone to the right of them. Voters believe Trump would do a better job on specific foreign policy issues like the Ukraine/Russia war (+9), standing up to China (+13), and the Israel/Hamas war (+10) over Harris, and 70% believe he has experience in foreign affairs. But 51% of voters believe Harris is better equipped to be commander-in-chief over Trump. CURRENT EVENTS HAVE MINOR EFFECTS ON CANDIDATE PERCEPTIONS 85% of voters say CBS should release the full transcript of Harris’ 60 Minutes interview. More broadly, 51% of voters say recent Harris interviews have helped her, and 49% say they have hurt her (an 8-point gap among Independents, with more thinking they hurt her). Harris holds leads over Trump on 10 out of 15 presidential characteristics including right temperament (+15), relates to the working class (+12), and honest (+10), while Trump is seen as more experienced (+10) and a fighter (+6). 58% of voters say they were satisfied with FEMA’s response to recent hurricanes, and 67% of voters believe FEMA money should not have gone to housing illegal immigrants. 38% of voters say JD Vance won the vice-presidential debate, while 35% of voters say Tim Walz won. 67% of voters believe billionaires mostly support Trump, while 33% of voters believe they support Harris. APPROVAL RATINGS AND MOOD OF COUNTRY REMAIN UNCHANGED, WITH ECONOMY TOP-OF-MIND Biden’s approval rating sits at 42%, unchanged from the last three months, while 51% of voters approve of the job Trump did as President (-1 from September) and 49% approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice-President (+2). 51% of voters believe they will be better off economically...

The poll was conducted September 4-5, 2024, among 2,358 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll. The new poll found that the presidential horse race now sits at 50-50. Harris' favorability and job approval ratings remain at 47%, while Trump holds a 47% favorability rating and 52% job approval rating. Voters believe Harris would do a better job on abortion, climate change, and racial equality, while Trump would do a better job on the economy, immigration, crime, and China. The poll also covers public opinion on the economy and foreign policy. Other key findings include: CONGRESSIONAL AND PRESIDENTIAL HORSE RACES BOTH NECK-AND-NECK The presidential horse race is tied at 50-50. Both presidential candidates are winning their respective party bases: male (50%), white (54%), and rural (59%) voters favor Trump, while Black (71%), urban (57%), and college-educated (52%) voters favor Harris. Independent voters are split almost evenly and 33% of them say they are still weighing their final choice. 50% of Hispanic voters say they will vote for Harris, while 43% say they will vote for Trump — only a 7-point gap. 7% of Hispanic voters say they are still unsure. CANDIDATES ARE PERCEIVED AS WIDELY DIFFERENT ON THE ISSUES Major differences emerged between how voters see Trump and how they see Harris on the issues. Harris is seen more often than not as favoring open borders, compassionate enforcement of laws, free healthcare to immigrants, and the switch to electric vehicles. Trump is seen as a stronger ally to Israel, harsher on China, and more of a defender of free speech on social media than Harris. Trump is seen as favoring a national ban on abortion while Harris is seen as opposing such a ban. 49% of voters say Harris is to the left of them politically, while 50% say Trump is to the right of them politically. LESS THAN HALF OF VOTERS APPROVE OF CURRENT ADMINISTRATION Biden approval rating stayed steady at 42% from July. Among minority voters, 66% of Black voters approve, but only 39% of Hispanic voters approve. Less than half of voters approve of Biden's performance across all issues, with racial equity his highest (47%) and the Israel-Hamas conflict his lowest (34%). 47% of voters approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice President, with high approval from Democrats (87%), Black (71%), and urban (60%) voters. PERCEPTIONS TOWARD ECONOMY REMAIN PESSIMISTIC 63% of voters believe the U.S. economy is on the wrong track and 62% characterize it as weak, consistent with perceptions over the past year. 42% of voters named inflation as the most important issue facing the country today, up 5 points from July. 48% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among female (53%), 55-64 year-old (55%), and rural (57%) voters. SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL OVER HAMAS UNCHANGED; YOUNG VOTERS SEEM UNINFORMED ON VENEZUELA ELECTIONS AND MANY FAVOR MADURO 69% of voters say a ceasefire of the Israel-Hamas war should only happen after Hamas is removed from power and all hostages are released (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 84%). When asked to choose between Israel and Hamas without the choice to remain undecided, 79% continue to favor Israel while 21% favor Hamas. 71% of voters say the execution of six hostages was the fault of Hamas over that of the Israeli government. More than half of voters have at least heard about the Venezuelan election, but 38% of voters say the Venezuelan election was not stolen by incumbent President Nicolás Maduro (ages 18-24: 49%; ages 25-34: 48%; ages 65+: 27%). 57% of voters say they support the protesters in Venezuela, and 60% support U.S. sanctions on Venezuela for allegations of election fraud, but 56% believe the U.S. government should not engage in another international issue. Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

In this episode of the Harvard Harris Poll Debrief, Bob Cusack and Mark Penn discuss the latest political developments and polling data. The discussion centers around a dramatic shift in the Democratic presidential race, with Joe Biden stepping aside and Kamala Harris becoming the new presumptive nominee. Takeaways The Democratic Party has experienced a renewal with the selection of Kamala Harris as the candidate. Harris has seen a significant improvement in her popularity and has the potential to win the election. Policy and performance will be key factors in the election, with Trump having an advantage on the economy. Attacks on Harris may focus on her progressive policies and lack of foreign policy experience. The selection of Harris' running mate is not expected to have a significant impact on the election. The electorate remains stable, with strong support for Israel and dissatisfaction with the economy. Chapters (00:00) The Renewal of the Democratic Party (01:07) The Popularity and Potential of Kamala Harris (02:22) Paths to Victory for Harris (05:06) The Importance of Policy and Performance (06:25) Likability and Potential Attacks on Harris (08:24) The Selection of Harris' Running Mate 11:00The Stability of the Electorate Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

The poll was conducted June 28-30, 2024, among 2,090 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll. President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating dropped to 40%, his lowest since July 2022, while inflation and immigration remained voters’ top two concerns. DEBATE HURTS BIDEN, HELPS TRUMP ATTITUDES TOWARD ECONOMY WORSEN TRUMP CONTINUES TO LEAD HORSE RACE IMMIGRATION-CRIME NEXUS CONTINUES TO CONCERN VOTERS SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL REMAINS HIGH Download the full results here. As always, I welcome your questions and comments. Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

Chapters 00:00 Biden's Job Approval and Economy 03:19 Impact of Border and Immigration 05:42 Israel-Hamas Conflict and Ratings 06:39 The Challenge of Swing Voters 10:29 Crucial Presidential Debates 13:23 The Hush Money Trial and Trump's Campaign Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating is steady at 44%, while Donald Trump leads the horse race by 4 points. Immigration and inflation remain the top two issues for voters. ELECTION FUNDAMENTALS SEE LITTLE CHANGE BUT TRUMP LEAD WIDENS AMERICANS PREFER FOCUS ON DOMESTIC RATHER THAN FOREIGN AFFAIRS GENERATIONAL SCHISM ON ISRAEL REMAINS SALIENT DESPITE GENERAL SUPPORT UNCHANGED MOST AMERICANS DISAPPROVE OF UNIVERSITIES AMID CAMPUS PROTESTS Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

The poll was conducted March 20-21, 2024, among 2,111 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll. President Joe Biden's overall approval rating remained at 45%, while 55% of voters say they approve of Donald Trump's job as president. Immigration and inflation remained voters' top two concerns for the third month in a row. Stay tuned for the next Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast debrief at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or other podcast platforms. Other key findings include: VOTERS SPLIT ON BIDEN'S STATE OF THE UNION BUT RACE NARROWS SLIGHTLY VOTERS ARE FINE WITH "ILLEGAL" AND "UNDOCUMENTED" TERMS AS IMMIGRATION REMAINS TOP CONCERN TIKTOK BAN IS DIVIDED BY GENERATION, NOT PARTY ISRAEL SUPPORT REMAINS STRONG WITH SCHUMER CRITICIZED FOR CALL TO REMOVE NETANYAHU Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

Here are the findings of the February Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, which was released together with The Hill today. The poll was conducted February 21-22, 2024, among 2,022 registered voters by HarrisX and The Harris Poll. President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating rose to 45% while his immigration approval remained at 35%, his lowest on any issue. Immigration and inflation are the top two issues for voters for the second month in a row. Stay tuned for the next Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast debrief at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or other podcast platforms. Other key findings include: IMMIGRATION CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE FRONT AND CENTER INFLATION LOOKS STICKY TO VOTERS VOTERS ARE CONCERNED BY SPECIAL COUNSEL REPORT ON BIDEN’S AGE AND MEMORY ISSUES TRUMP KEEPS LEAD DESPITE LEGAL CHALLENGES ISRAEL SUPPORT REMAINS STRONG Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

Mark Penn and Bob Cusack breakdown the results from the January 2024 Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll. This month's word: Immigration. Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX. President Joe Biden's approval rating is 43% with slight upticks in economic sentiment. The generation gap on the Israel-Hamas war remains prevalent as 81% of all voters but only 50% of 18-24-year-olds side with Israel. The poll also covers public opinion on immigration and the 2024 horse race. Download key results here. "There is bipartisan consensus among voters on many issues right now, from immigration and increased border security to support for Israel and Ukraine," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "The party that compromises effectively could win over swing voters who remain conflicted between different cross-pressures about the economy and the weaknesses of the leading candidates." AMERICANS THINK THE U.S. SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH ISRAEL AND UKRAINE VOTERS WANT MORE ACTION ON IMMIGRATION VOTERS THINK THEY ARE WORSE OFF UNDER BIDEN ALTHOUGH VIEWS ON ECONOMY ARE TICKING UP TRUMP MAINTAINS LEAD IN HORSE RACE WITH WIDESPREAD DOUBTS ABOUT HIM AND BIDEN VOTERS WANT HUNTER BIDEN TO AGREE TO DEPOSITION GENERATION GAP ON ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR EXTENDS TO UNIVERSITY PRESIDENTS AND POLICIES The December Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on December 13-14, 2023, among 2,034 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

President Joe Biden's approval rating rises slightly to 45% with slight upticks in positive economic sentiment. Israel and Biden's policy on the war continue to receive strong support as 80% of voters side with Israel over Hamas and 58% approve of Biden's policies. The poll also covers public opinion on abortion, crime and the 2024 horse race. Download key results here. "It is easy to lose sight of how much support there really is among American voters for Israel and for President Biden staying strongly pro-Israel – although misinformation on Israel and Hamas remains prevalent, especially among younger people," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Biden's Israelpolicy could help him pick up swing voters, while the Democrats continue to win elections on abortion since they come across to swing voters as the party of personal freedom on this issue." ECONOMIC OUTLOOK TICKS UP SLIGHTLY ISRAEL CONTINUES TO RECEIVE MAJORITY SUPPORT VOTERS CONTINUE TO APPROVE OF BIDEN'S ISRAEL POLICY MISINFORMATION ON HAMAS AND ISRAEL'S LEVELS OF FREEDOM AND TOLERANCE REMAINS SIZABLE AMONG YOUNG VOTERS 6-WEEK ABORTION BAN IS NOT POPULAR AMERICANS WANT MORE LAW ENFORCEMENT AS CRIME CONCERN STAYS HIGH TRUMP STILL LEADS PRIMARY AND GENERAL MATCHUPS DESPITE LOOMING CONVICTION THREATS The November Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on November 15-16, 2023, among 2,851 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

OCTOBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: STRONG MAJORITIES OF AMERICANS SUPPORT ISRAEL AGAINST HAMAS AND U.S. POLICY ON ISRAEL 48% OF 18–24-YEAR-OLDS SIDE MORE WITH HAMAS; WAR VIEWS DEFINED BY GENERATIONS, NOT PARTY BIDEN APPROVAL RISES ON ISRAEL RESPONSE NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX. Israel receives overwhelming support from Americans: 84% of voters support Israel over Hamas and 88% believe Israel has a right to respond militarily against Hamas. President Joe Biden edges up to 44% approval as 58% approve of the job he is doing on Israel. Republicans in Congress have hurt themselves significantly in the breakdown over the Speaker of the House as Congressional and Republican ratings sink. Download key results here. “Americans strongly support Israel against Hamas’ terrorist attacks by 80 percent or more. However, there is a split not among the parties but among the generations as 95% of seniors support Israel while support drops to only 52% among the youngest voter group,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “President Biden’s vocal support of Israel is winning approval from both sides, while the Republicans’ chaos in the House is doing the opposite.” AMERICANS OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORT ISRAELAND ITS RIGHT TO RESPOND TO HAMAS ATTACKS • 84% of voters side more with Israel than with Hamas (ages 18-24: 52%; ages 65+: 95%). • 88% of voters think Israel has the responsibility to protect its citizens by retaliating against Hamas (ages 18-24: 65%; ages 65+: 97%). • 84% of voters believe Israel has the right to defend itself by launching air strikes in heavily populated Palestinian areas with warnings to those citizens (ages 18-24: 62%; ages 65+: 93%). • 70% of voters think Israel should eliminate Hamas, not end its campaign against Hamas now (ages 18-24: 48%; ages 65+: 82%). • 63% of voters believe it was right for Israel to cut off power, water and food to Gaza until its hostages are returned (ages 18-24: 41%; ages 65+: 70%). • 61% of voters say there is no moral equivalency between Hamas’ murders and Israel’s actions (ages 18-24: 36% – the majority believe both sides have equally just causes; ages 65+: 80%). SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF YOUNG VOTERS HAVE THEIR OWN FACTS, DENY ATROCITIES COMMITTED • 17% of voters think it is a false story that Hamas terrorists killed 1200 Israeli civilians by shooting, raping and beheading people (ages 18-24: 32%; ages 65+: 10%). • 46% of voters say that Israel, not Hamas, rules Gaza (ages 18-24: 53%; ages 65+: 32%). • 33% of voters think the explosion at a Gaza hospital explosion was caused by an Israeli airstrike rather than a terrorist rocket that went off-course (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 13%). BIDEN GETS GOOD RATINGS ON ISRAEL POLICY AS VOTERS THINK U.S. HAS RESPONSIBILITY TO HELP • 58% of voters approve of Biden’s foreign policy on Israel(ages 18-24: 52%; ages 65+: 61%). • 64% of voters say the U.S. has a responsibility to militarily support Israel while it is under attack by terrorist groups(ages 18-24: 49%; ages 65+: 70%). • While Biden did not mention the U.S. hostages in his October 19 Oval Office address, 71% of voters think the U.S. has the responsibility to bring to safety the over a dozen Americans abducted by Hamas (ages 18-24: 42%; ages 65+: 81%). • 59% of voters say the U.S. should directly intervene if Iran attacks Israel (ages 18-24: 40%; ages 65+: 64%). REPUBLICAN VOTERS DISAPPROVE OF MCCARTHY OUSTER • 62% of GOP voters say the Republicans who ousted McCarthy are hurting the Republican Party. • 57% of GOP voters say that if House Republicans cannot elect another speaker before government funding runs out in 30 days, they should find a different candidate other than McCarthy. TRUMP LEADS...

Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the September Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX. President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains at 42% after a new impeachment inquiry, which 53% of voters split along party lines support. The poll also covers the 2024 horse race and public opinion on issues such as illegal immigration and parental rights. Download key results here. “After a quiet summer, the electorate remains unhappy on the economy and a slew of other issues,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “Since voters have hardened views on Biden and Trump, the primaries have not gotten competitive yet either.” INFLATION FRUSTRATIONS REMAIN VOTERS SPLIT ON BIDEN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY TRUMP CONSOLIDATES SUPPORT AND LEADS BIDEN IN HEAD-TO-HEAD AMERICANS FIND AGREEMENT ON IMMIGRATION AND PARENTAL RIGHTS The September Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from September 12-14, 2023, among 2,103 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. ​ Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

Harris Poll Chairman / Stagwell CEO Mark Penn and The Hill Editor in Chief Bob Cusackexplore findings of the July Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted July 19-20 and released by Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies and Harris Insights and Analytics. Download the full report - key results, crosstabs and key findings. The Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll is conducted by The Harris Poll online within the United States every monthly and captures the responses of over 2,000 registered voters. The results reflect a nationally representative sample. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, and education where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. The Co-Directors of the Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll are: Stephen D. Ansolabehere – Professor of Government & Director, Center for American Political Studies, Harvard University Dritan Nesho – Fellow, Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science & CEO of HarrisX Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and The Hill Editor in Chief Bob Cusack explore findings of the June Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted June 14 and 15 among 2,090 registered voters. MOST AMERICANS UNHAPPY Voters remain politically split 50-50 but just about 100% are unhappy with the direction of the country, the economy, and their political leaders. Biden’s approval is frozen in place despite the debt ceiling deal and a recovering stock market; yet Trump’s numbers are also unshaken after an unprecedented federal indictment. BIDEN AND TRUMP STRENGTHEN THEIR POSITIONS - President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains at 43% and Donald Trump continues to lead their 2024 matchup, by 6 points this month. The poll covers public opinion on the Trump federal indictment, electric vehicles and policy issues like parental rights. AMERICANS THINK THE CASE AGAINST TRUMP IS STRONG BUT WANT A PARDON - 58% of Americans think the case against Trump is strong, including 85% of Democrats, 60% of Independents, and 30% of Republicans. - Voters are split 51-49, down party lines, on whether Trump’s indictment is reason to withdraw from the 2024 race. - If Trump is convicted, 53% of voters – driven by 80% of Republicans – support pardoning him in the interest of national unity. MORE VOTERS PREFER TO LIVE IN A STATE WITH A REPUBLICAN-LEANING SLATE OF POLICIES - 64% of voters say they would want to live in a state that cuts taxes, encourages public charter schools, does not allow gender surgery for minors, and restricts most abortions after six weeks. - By contrast 66% of voters – including a majority of all parties – say they would not want to live in a state that has increasing taxes, restricts legal gun ownership more strictly, allows abortion up to 9 months, allows minors to get gender surgery without parental permission, encourages undocumented immigrants, and allows felons to vote. TRUMP AND BIDEN STRENGTHEN THEIR 2024 POSITIONS - Even after the indictment, 59% of Republicans would choose Trump in a GOP primary and he would beat Biden in a general election 45-39 (one point closer than last month). - Biden has strengthened his position with 62% support among Democratic voters in a primary – but Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is in second at 15% and his personal favorability rating is 21 points above water. AMERICANS OPPOSE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MANDATES - Americans are split 50-50 on supporting the $7500 tax credit subsidy for an EV purchase. - 59% of voters oppose government regulations that would require at least half of all cars sold in the U.S. by 2030 to be electric. - Americans still like gas cars: 64% think they are better vehicles than EVs. - Voters are split on the net climate effect of EVs: Half of Americans, including most Republicans and Independents, think EVs produce just as much pollution through the car battery mining and production process. AMERICANS SATISFIED WITH SCHOOLS BUT WANT STRONGER PARENTAL RIGHTS - 74% of parents with school-aged children, including majorities of all parties, think schools are respecting their rights as parents. - 77% of voters oppose a law in their state that would allow minors to get gender-changing surgery and puberty blockers without parental permission, including 66% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans. The June Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from June 14-15, 2023, among 2,090 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963,...

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and The Hill Editor in Chief Bob Cusack dissect and interpret findings of the May Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted May 17-18, 2023, among 2,004 registered voters. ​ Donald Trump now beats Joe Biden by 7 points in a 2024 presidential matchup. Meanwhile half of voters have heard of the Durham report on the FBI’s investigation of Trump and Russia, but they seem confused about its contents, as half mistakenly thought the report said the FBI investigation was well-founded. TRUMP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AFTER CNN TOWN HALL VOTERS SEEM CONFUSED BY DURHAM REPORT ON FBI’S TRUMP INVESTIGATION MAJORITY OF VOTERS ACROSS ALL PARTIES WANT STRICTER IMMIGRATION POLICIES VOTERS CONTINUE TO WANT DEBT CEILING NEGOTIATIONS

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and The Hill Editor in Chief Bob Cusack dissect and interpret findings of the May Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted May 17-18, 2023, among 2,004 registered voters. ​ Donald Trump now beats Joe Biden by 7 points in a 2024 presidential matchup. Meanwhile half of voters have heard of the Durham report on the FBI’s investigation of Trump and Russia, but they seem confused about its contents, as half mistakenly thought the report said the FBI investigation was well-founded. TRUMP CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AFTER CNN TOWN HALL VOTERS SEEM CONFUSED BY DURHAM REPORT ON FBI’S TRUMP INVESTIGATION MAJORITY OF VOTERS ACROSS ALL PARTIES WANT STRICTER IMMIGRATION POLICIES VOTERS CONTINUE TO WANT DEBT CEILING NEGOTIATIONS Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter

Harris Poll Chairman Mark Penn and Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill explore the April Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, conducted April 18-19, 2023, among 1,845 registered voters. ​ For the first time since last year, Americans’ view of the economy has declined and the public continues to take the Republicans’ side on debt negotiations, with 65% wanting Congress to raise the debt ceiling only with restraints on future spending. Meanwhile the indictment has strengthened Donald Trump’s standing among Republicans as he extends his lead in an open GOP primary to 55% support, while 65% of voters think Joe Biden would not be able to finish a second term if reelected. VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY WORSEN AFTER 3 MONTHS OF IMPROVEMENTS INDICTMENT STRENGTHENS TRUMP WITH REPUBLICANS AS DESANTIS FADES BUT IS NOT OUT VOTERS THINK A BIDEN SECOND TERM MEANS PRESIDENT HARRIS THE PUBLIC CONTINUES TO TAKE THE REPUBLICANS’ SIDE ON DEBT NEGOTIATIONS CRIME CONCERNS BECOME LESS PARTISAN AS VOTERS WANT STRICTER PROSECUTION REGULAR AMERICANS AREN’T FAMILIAR WITH ESG Interested in Learning More? Harvard Harris Poll Listen to More Episodes Twitter