Irregular Warfare Podcast

Episode 152 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast grapples with the many definitions of irregular warfare used across the community of interest. In this episode, our guests discuss why the concept of irregular warfare has resisted a stable definition across decades of changing doctrine, and what that persistent confusion has cost operationally and strategically. We walk through three competing definitional approaches— the maximal, the traditional, and the competition-disruption model — weighing the strengths and weaknesses of each. We close by asking what irregular warfare actually is at its core, and why getting that answer right matters, not just for writers of doctrine, but for practitioners. The article is here: Fragmented Frontiers: Three Approaches to Understanding Irregular Warfare Dr. Chris Tripodi is Reader in Irregular Warfare at the Defence Studies Department, King's College London. His research focuses on the forms of knowledge Western militaries use to understand their operational environments, and the complex relationship between counterinsurgency theory and practice. Eric Robinson is an Associate Director of the Data Science and Technology Group at the RAND Corporation, where his research focuses on special operations, irregular warfare, and gray zone challenges. He is the lead author of RAND's 2023 report Strategic Disruption by Special Operations Forces, which we touch on in today’s episode. Lieutenant General (ret.) Mike Nagata served for 38 years in the US Army, with 34 years in special operations. Among his many positions of leadership, he served as Commander of US Special Operations Command-Central from 2013 to 2015, and was heavily involved in the first two years of combat operations against the Islamic State. Alisa Laufer hosts this episode. Please reach out to the Irregular Warfare Podcast team with any questions about the episode or the broader mission of the show. The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners to support the community of irregular warfare professionals. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for (always free!) access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources. All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project. Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa

Episode 151 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast explores how the United States wields power not only through military force, but through dollars, sanctions, export controls, and supply chains. Anchored in Eddie Fishman’s book Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, this episode examines the rise of economic statecraft as a central feature of great power competition. Drawing on the firsthand experiences of former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and former Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh, the conversation unpacks key concepts such as dollar dominance, sanctions design, and the hidden “chokepoints” embedded within global finance and technology that give the United States asymmetric leverage. Through case studies on Iran, Russia, and China, the guests assess both the power and the limits of economic warfare. Sanctions can bring adversaries to the negotiating table—but only when aligned with clear political objectives, coalition support, and careful calibration to avoid self-inflicted harm. In the strategic competition with China, export controls on foundational technologies reflect a shift from coercing behavior to preserving relative advantage. The episode ultimately argues that economic tools must be treated with the same rigor as military force: grounded in legitimacy, disciplined in execution, and guided by a coherent doctrine for an era of geo-economic rivalry.

Space is no longer a silent backdrop to conflict—it is a contested domain that enables, shapes, and increasingly defines how wars are fought. In this episode, Ben Jebb and Charlie McGillis sit down with Dr. James Kiras and General Stephen Whiting to examine the strategic importance of space in both great power competition and irregular warfare. The discussion explores how modern military operations rely on space-based capabilities for precision, synchronization, intelligence, and global reach—and what happens when those capabilities are contested. The conversation also dives into the evolving “SOF-space-cyber triad,” highlighting how special operations forces, space professionals, and cyber operators can integrate to create complex dilemmas for adversaries. From maneuver warfare in orbit to countering Chinese influence campaigns in the Global South, the episode underscores a critical takeaway: space superiority is not automatic. It must be defended, integrated, and deliberately incorporated into joint campaigning if the United States and its partners are to preserve their strategic advantage. Dr. James Kiras is Professor of Strategy at the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies (SAASS) at Air University. A leading scholar on special operations and irregular warfare, his research focuses on strategy, special operations theory, and the integration of emerging domains into modern conflict. General Stephen N. Whiting is the Commander of United States Space Command, where he leads joint forces responsible for military operations in the space domain. A career Air Force officer with extensive experience in space operations and national security strategy, he oversees efforts to defend U.S. and allied interests in an increasingly contested and competitive space environment. Ben Jebb and Charlie McGillis are the hosts for this episode. Please reach out to Ben and Charlie with any questions about this episode or the Irregular Warfare Podcast. The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners in the field of irregular warfare. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources.

Episode 150 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast examines the historical and strategic forces that shaped modern Iran and explores how the Islamic Republic uses irregular warfare to advance its interests in the Middle East. Our guests begin by examining the political foundations of modern Iranian politics, tracing the country’s trajectory from the rule of the Shah and the 1953 coup against Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh to the revolutionary upheaval of 1979. They then explore why the Islamic Republic turned to irregular warfare—particularly the use of proxy groups and militant networks—as a core component of its foreign policy and regional strategy. Finally, our guests assess how Iran’s proxy network evolved over time, why it proved effective for decades, and what recent conflicts may reveal about the future of Iran’s regional influence and internal political stability. Dr. Arman Mahmoudian is a research fellow at the Global and National Security Institute and an adjunct faculty member whose work focuses on Middle Eastern and Russian affairs. His research and commentary have appeared in outlets including Foreign Policy, The National Interest, and the Atlantic Council, and he frequently provides expert analysis for international media. Behnam Ben Taleblu is senior director of the Iran Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where he specializes in Iranian security and political issues including nuclear proliferation, missile development, sanctions, and the Islamic Republic’s regional proxy network. Ben Jebb and Alex Chinchilla are the hosts for this episode. Please reach out to Ben and Alex with any questions about this episode or the Irregular Warfare Podcast.

Episode 148 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast explores why militant groups form alliances, and what the content of those alliances can tell us about their organizational capacity. Drawing on an article Professor Chris Blair co-authored with Phillip Potter, The Strategic Logic of Large Militant Alliance Networks, this episode offers a new framework for understanding militant cooperation. Reflective of the comparative advantage model, al-Qaeda and the Islamic State each pursued alliance networks not simply from a position of strength, but to compensate for distinct organizational deficits–with al-Qaeda seeking operational reach after 9/11, and the Islamic State seeking ideological legitimacy after its split with al-Qaeda. The conversation explores how these dynamics played out with these two groups and how practitioners might use these insights to efficiently disrupt militant alliances in an era increasingly focused on great power competition. Dr. Chris Blair is an Assistant Professor at Princeton University in the Department of Politics. Professor Blair’s research mainly engages with questions of how counterinsurgency policies affect civilian and rebel behavior and how prospective host countries respond to forcibly displaced people. He has published prolifically in top academic journals as well as publications such as Foreign Affairs and the Washington Post. General Joseph Votel is the current distinguished chair of West Point’s Combatting Terrorism Center. He is a retired Army 4-star officer who in his last active duty assignment served as the commanding general of U.S. Central Command. During his 39 years in the military he commanded Special Operations and conventional military forces at every level. Alisa Laufer hosts this episode. Please reach out to the Irregular Warfare Podcast team with any questions about the episode or the broader mission of the show. The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners to support the community of irregular warfare professionals. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources.

Episode 147 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast examines the past, present, and future of America’s defense industrial base—and why its strength may determine the outcome of the next era of great power competition. Drawing on historical experience and contemporary reforms, the episode argues that American military advantage has long depended on close collaboration between government and industry. From Roosevelt’s wartime mobilization to Cold War breakthroughs in stealth and reconnaissance, U.S. success has repeatedly flowed from its ability to harness commercial innovation and industrial scale. Today, however, that ecosystem faces mounting strain as China expands its manufacturing capacity and defense production at unprecedented speed. The conversation highlights a central tension: while the United States retains unmatched technological depth—especially in commercial sectors such as artificial intelligence and advanced computing—much of that innovation remains only partially integrated into defense. Regulatory barriers, acquisition culture, and post–Cold War consolidation have narrowed the defense industrial base, limiting the military’s ability to tap the full breadth of American industry. In response, the U.S. Army is experimenting with faster acquisition cycles, commercial partnerships, and modular, software-driven designs that shorten timelines from concept to fielding while preserving the ability to scale production in a crisis. Finally, the discussion addresses the policy implications of rebuilding industrial strength. Sustained investment, clearer demand signals to industry, and greater flexibility in budgeting and contracting are essential to restoring surge capacity and critical stockpiles. The guests emphasize that the costs of preparation are far lower than the costs of deterrence failure. For practitioners and policymakers alike, the episode highlights a simple but urgent message: preserving America’s military edge requires aligning industrial policy, acquisition reform, and technological innovation with the realities of renewed great power competition. Dr. Alexander Miller is the Senior Advisor for Science and Technology and Chief Technology Officer to the Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army. He holds a Master’s degree in Systems Engineering from Johns Hopkins University and a Doctorate of Technology from Purdue University’s Polytechnic Institute. Dr. Seth G. Jones is president of the Defense and Security Department and Harold Brown Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). His work focuses on defense strategy, the defense industrial base, and irregular warfare. His book The American Edge: The Military Tech Nexus and the Sources of Great Power Dominance anchors this episode’s discussion. Ben Jebb and Kyle Atwell host this episode. Please reach out to the Irregular Warfare Podcast team with any questions about the episode or the broader mission of the show. The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners in the field of irregular warfare. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources.

Description: Episode 146 examines the impact of external military assistance on civil wars. Summary This conversation delves into the complexities of competitive intervention in civil wars, exploring the types of military aid provided, how external support influences conflict dynamics, and implications for practitioners and policymakers. The discussion highlights the prevalence of external interventions, the escalation dynamics involved, and the moral dilemmas faced by intervening states. Our guests emphasize the need for a nuanced understanding of these interventions, particularly in the context of an increasingly multipolar world where we anticipate competitive intervention and proxy wars will increase. Takeaways General (retired) Wayne Eyre served as Chief of the Defence Staff in the Canadian Armed Forces from 2021 to 2024, Canada’s highest-ranking military officer. With more than 30 years of service, he commanded at multiple levels, including operational deployments in Afghanistan and Bosnia. He is currently a Senior Fellow and Visiting Professor at the University of Ottawa. Dr. Noel Anderson is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto and author of Wars Without End: Competitive Intervention, Escalation Control, and Protracted Conflict. The book examines why contemporary wars so often resist clear endings. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Lieutenant Colonel (Dr.) Matthew Kuhlman is a U.S. Army officer, military scholar, and the current Managing Editor at the Irregular Warfare Initiative – where he helps curate written practitioner and scholar insights for the irregular warfare community. Kyle Atwell is the host for episode 146. Please reach out to him with any questions about the episode or IWI. The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners to support the community of irregular warfare professionals. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for (always free!) access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources. All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project. Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa Photo: Cover image generated using AI-assisted digital art tools.

Episode 145 examines the role of foreign fighters in war. Our guests begin by highlighting the long history of foreign fighters in conflict, from the early United States and the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s to contemporary cases such as the International Legion in Ukraine and the role of foreign fighters in ISIS. The conversation then turns to why individuals risk their lives for others in far away lands, with motivations ranging from financial incentives and ideological commitments to deeply personal reasons. Finally, the discussion concludes by examining the impact foreign fighters have on the battlefield – with the results often being mixed. Dr. David Malet is an Associate Professor at American University whose research focuses on foreign fighter recruitment, insurgency, and transnational conflict dynamics. He is the author of the book Foreign Fighters: Transnational Identity in Civil Conflicts, a comprehensive study of why and how individuals join wars far from home. Colin Freeman is a British journalist and former chief foreign correspondent for The Sunday Telegraph. He has reported extensively from conflict zones around the world, including recently in Ukraine. His book The Mad and the Brave: The Untold Story of Ukraine’s Foreign Legion tells the stories of foreign volunteers who joined Ukraine’s defense during the Russo-Ukrainian War. Kyle Atwell is the host for episode 145. Please reach out to him with any questions about the episode or IWI. The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners to support the community of irregular warfare professionals. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for (always free!) access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources. All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project. Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa Illustrative image generated by AI. It does not depict a real individual.

Episode 144 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast continues the Future of War series with a sharp focus on strategic sabotage, indirect action, and deterrence below the threshold of armed conflict. The episode centers on “Special Delivery,” a near-future short story by August Cole set in 2037 amid intensifying U.S.–China competition. The story follows a small U.S. Special Operations team operating near Peru’s Port of Chancay, tasked with sabotaging Chinese-owned critical infrastructure as part of a broader effort to deter a potential blockade of Taiwan. Cole joins Rear Admiral Mark Schafer, Commander of SOCSOUTH, to explore how fiction can illuminate real strategic dilemmas and expose vulnerabilities embedded in global logistics, infrastructure, and access. The conversation examines how modern sabotage has evolved away from overt kinetic strikes toward a blend of cyber access, physical infiltration, logistics disruption, and information effects—designed less to destroy than to shape adversary decision-making. While emerging technologies like autonomous systems and AI-enabled tools play an important role, both guests emphasize that human skills—adaptability, cultural fluency, and teamwork—remain decisive. The episode closes by grappling with escalation risk, underscoring that strategic sabotage can provide policymakers with powerful options short of war, but only if applied with a deep understanding of adversary perceptions and regional dynamics.

As we close out the year, we're re-releasing our most popular episode of 2025: Ukraine's Hidden Front--The Strategic Impact of Resistance Operations. In this episode, we explore the cost and benefits of Ukrainian partisan activity and what resistance operations mean for Ukraine's broader war aims. As always, thanks for listening, and keep warfare irregular.

Episode 143 examines what enables certain guerrilla and insurgent forces to develop genuine military effectiveness on the battlefield. Our guests discuss why ideological cohesion, social ties, and material resources alone are insufficient for insurgents to successfully implement guerrilla strategies. Drawing on historical examples and a detailed analysis of the Taliban’s evolution in Afghanistan, they argue that success depends on the professionalization of the force—particularly the recruitment, training, and empowerment of skilled small-unit combat leaders who enable effective planning, realistic training, adaptation, and task-oriented cohesion. The conversation explores broader implications for understanding insurgencies, counterinsurgency challenges, and security force assistance programs. General (Ret.) Stan McChrystal is a retired U.S. Army four-star general, former commander of Joint Special Operations Command and International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, founder of the McChrystal Group, and author of multiple books on leadership and irregular warfare. Dr. Alec Worsnop is an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Modern War Institute. His research focuses on insurgent military effectiveness, and this episode is based on his recent book titled Rebels in the Field: Cadres and the Development of Insurgent Military Power published by Oxford University Press. Kyle Atwell and Alisa Laufer are the hosts for episode 143. Please reach out to them with any questions about the episode or IWI. The Irregular Warfare Podcast is a production of the Irregular Warfare Initiative (IWI). We are a team of volunteers dedicated to bridging the gap between scholars and practitioners in the field of irregular warfare. IWI generates written and audio content, coordinates events for the IW community, and hosts critical thinkers in the field of irregular warfare as IWI fellows. You can follow and engage with us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, or LinkedIn. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources. All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project. Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa

Episode 142 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast features Dr. Jonathan Schroden, Mick Crnkovich, and Dave Maxwell for a deep dive into the Pentagon’s new irregular warfare policy instruction—DoD Instruction 3000.07—and what it signals about how the U.S. military understands, organizes for, and competes in irregular conflict. The discussion opens with why the Department of Defense updated its irregular warfare guidance after two decades of counterterrorism operations and amid renewed strategic competition with state adversaries. The guests explain how the new instruction reflects a shift away from a terrorism-centric framework toward recognizing irregular warfare as a persistent and central feature of great power competition. The panel then turns to the most contested element of the policy: the definition of irregular warfare itself. Jon, Mick, and Dave debate whether IW should be understood as a method of warfare, a theory of victory, or a distinct form of competition—arguing that while the definition matters, the real test will be whether the joint force changes how it plans, trains, and operates. The episode closes with a hard look at whether DoDI 3000.07 will translate into meaningful institutional change. The guests assess persistent obstacles to operationalizing IW—including force design, resourcing, and planning culture—and emphasize that success will depend on leadership more than policy language. Influence, not firepower, they argue, will be the most decisive component of competition in today’s security environment.

Episode 141 examines what the role of resistance operations are in the context of the broader war in Ukraine. Our guests begin by discussing whether resistance in occupied Ukraine has been effective. They argue that “Random Acts of Resistance” are not effective. Instead, resistance activities are most impactful when well synchronized with conventional military operations. The effective use of resistance activities faces multiple challenges though, the largest being the need to synchronize not only SOF and conventional forces on the battlefield, but also to control resistance entities that are often built from the grassroots civilian population. Our guests conclude that resistance operations are important, but they play a supporting role in a broader war. LTG Andy Rohling has held multiple senior military roles in Europe, to include during the current war in Ukraine. Most relevantly he served as the Deputy Chair of the NATO Military Committee and Deputy Commanding General of United States Army Europe. Jon Armstrong is a British Army Officer and author of the article “Violent Resistance in Occupied Ukraine: An Assessment of Network Capabilities, Access, and Utility“ which this conversation is based on. He has multiple operational deployments and is a 2025 Non-Resident Fellow at the Irregular Warfare Initiative. Kyle Atwell and Dr. Olga Chiriac are the hosts for episode 141. Please reach out to them with any questions about the episode, the Irregular Warfare Podcast, or the IWI in Europe Program which Olga leads. Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa

Episode 140 is a bonus episode built out of conversations held with panelists from the 2025 Irregular Warfare Initiative and Special Operations Association of America South America in Competition Conference. The South America in Competition Conference brought together over 250 researchers, practitioners, and members of industry for two days at the Carahsoft Headquarters in the DC area. The first day included panel discussions on irregular warfare challenges in the South America region. The second day included a detailed wargame with participation from a range of stakeholders, planned by the IWI Wargaming Division. For this bonus episode, IWI Podcast Host Jackie Giunta recorded three short conversations with conference participants following their panel presentations. First, IWI podcast host Jackie Giunta is joined by Dr. John Stockton, co-founder of Quantifind, Dave Cook from the Special Operations Association of America, and Dr. Ryan Berg from the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies to discuss using open source intelligence to track illicit financial networks. Next, Catherine Woods from the Institute for Financial Integrity discusses illicit financial flows and tools of economic statecraft to counter them. Last, Phil Fuster, a Vice President at SpyCloud, further discusses the importance of OSINT and the need to refocus on relationships in South America. Introducing and closing the episode are Doug Livermore, the IWI Director of Engagements, and Umar Ahmed Badami, Director of the IWI Wargaming Division. They also both planned this major event. Kyle Atwell provided editorial support for this episode. If you have an idea for a future event or war-game IWI should run, want to get involved in events, or want to provide material support so IWI can continue these important conversations - reach out to Doug or Umar directly. All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project. Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa

Episode 139 examines how supply chains have become instruments of strategic competition and the implications for U.S. defense capabilities. Our guests discuss how China gained control over critical drone components originally invented in the United States and what this means for economic security and irregular warfare. Our guests begin by analyzing the "anatomy of a drone" to reveal how China leveraged consumer electronics manufacturing to dominate military supply chains. They then examine the "missing middle" in capital formation between venture funding and manufacturing scale, and how this gap undermines America's ability to compete in protracted economic campaigns. Finally, our guests discuss DIU's initiatives like Blue Manufacturing and Forge to rebuild domestic production capacity, the challenge of creating trusted supplier networks with allies, and how economic infrastructure has become both an offensive and defensive tool in modern warfare. Dr. Fiona Murray is the William Porter Professor of Entrepreneurship and Associate Dean of Innovation at MIT Sloan School of Management. She chairs the NATO Innovation Fund, a €1 billion venture capital fund investing across 24 NATO allies. Her recent research examines drone supply chain vulnerabilities and the geography of innovation. She previously served on the UK Prime Minister's Council of Science and Technology and holds a PhD from Harvard. Dr. John Griffin leads the Autonomy Portfolio and Boston office at the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU). A retired Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel with 28 years of service. He previously taught at the U.S. Naval War College and led regional engagement for the National Security Innovation Network. He holds a doctorate from Northeastern University and a master's from Harvard. All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project. Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa

Episode 138 is a bonus episode built out of conversations held with panelists from the 2025 Irregular Warfare Initiative and Special Operations Association of America South America in Competition Conference. The South America in Competition Conference brought together over 250 researchers, practitioners, and members of industry for two days at the Carahsoft Headquarters in the DC area. The first day included panel discussions on irregular warfare challenges in the South America region. The second day included a detailed wargame with participation from a range of stakeholders, planned by the IWI Wargaming Division. For this bonus episode, IWI Podcast Host Jackie Giunta recorded four short conversations with conference participants following their panel presentations. First, Will Walker from Onebrief examines whether PRC strategy in South America is coercive or benign. Next, Adam Fife, the CEO of CenCore, discusses Chinese debt trap diplomacy. Third, Leland Lazarus discusses how China’s economic statecraft is another form of irregular warfare. Last, Dr. Evan Ellis, Professor of Latin American Studies at the U.S. Army War College, provides a broad overview of China’s strategy in South America. Introducing and closing the episode are Doug Livermore, the IWI Director of Engagements, and Umar Ahmed Badami, Director of the IWI Wargaming Division. They also both planned this major event. Kyle Atwell provided editorial support for this episode. If you have an idea for a future event or wargame IWI should run, want to get involved in events, or want to provide material support so IWI can continue these important conversations - reach out to Doug or Umar directly. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter for access to our written content, upcoming community events, and other resources. All views expressed in this episode are the personal views of the participants and do not represent those of any government agency or of the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project. Intro music: “Unsilenced” by Ketsa Outro music: “Launch” by Ketsa

Episode 137 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast continues our four-part series on the future of war, pairing renowned author and futurist August Cole with senior special operations leaders to explore how tomorrow’s conflicts may unfold. Our conversation centers on Cole’s short story On Their Own, which imagines U.S. Army Special Operations Forces advising a newly formed Thai commando unit amid Chinese-backed proxies, pervasive surveillance, organized crime, and accelerating technological change. The story spotlights how SOF teams may have to influence from the sidelines—helping partners integrate robotics, AI, and cyber tools—while competing for the strategic narrative in a contested Indo-Pacific environment. Joining us for this episode is Major General Jeff VanAntwerp, Commander of Special Operations Command–Pacific (SOCPAC). Together with August Cole, MG VanAntwerp discusses how Army SOF is adapting to new technologies, why trust with partners remains a timeless necessity, and what qualities will continue to define special operators in the years ahead. The discussion underscores that while future operators will be hyper-enabled with sensors, drones, and advanced AI, the human dimension of warfare—trust, adaptability, and leadership—remains constant. At the conclusion of the episode, listeners can hear a narrated excerpt from On Their Own, immersing them in the dilemmas SOF may face in the conflicts of the 2030s.

Episode 135 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast examines the fate of victorious rebel groups after civil wars—and why some remain loyal to post-war governments while others fragment, defect, or even overthrow the regimes they helped create. Our guests begin by exploring the core puzzle: conventional wisdom suggests that decisive victory produces stability, yet evidence shows that in more than half of cases, post-war militaries face crises within a decade. They then explain how wartime pressures shape the organizational choices of rebel groups—particularly the relationship between political leaders and field commanders—and how those choices carry forward into peacetime governance. Drawing on cases from Zimbabwe, Côte d’Ivoire, and across Africa, the discussion highlights why power-sharing arrangements often fail, why commitment problems undermine loyalty, and how the interests of commanders, rulers, and foreign partners diverge. Finally, the conversation turns to the limits of external security assistance, and what policymakers and practitioners should consider when working with post-conflict militaries. Dr. Philip A. Martin is an assistant professor at George Mason University. His research specializes in political violence and civil wars, peacebuilding, and African politics. His article, Insurgent Armies: Military Obedience and State Formation after Rebel Victory, serves as the anchor for today’s conversation. Brigadier General Allen J. Pepper is the commanding general of U.S. Army Security Assistance Command. A career foreign area officer with extensive experience across Africa, he has served in Mali, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Central African Republic.

Episode 135 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast kicks off a four-part series on the future of war, pairing renowned author and futurist August Cole with senior special operations leaders to explore how tomorrow’s conflicts may unfold. Our conversation centers on Cole’s short story Safe Harbor II, which envisions Marine Raiders operating in a near-future environment saturated with proxy terrorism, relentless information warfare, and AI-enabled surveillance. The story highlights how SOF teams will grapple with great-power adversaries who weaponize terrorist groups to justify intervention, forcing small units to fight not only for tactical advantage but also to control the strategic narrative. Joining us for this episode is Major General Peter Huntley, Commander of Marine Forces Special Operations Command (MARSOC). Together with August Cole, MajGen Huntley discusses how MARSOC is adapting to new technologies, why trust with partners remains a timeless necessity, and what qualities will continue to define Raiders in the decades ahead. The discussion underscores that while future operators will be hyper-enabled with drones, sensors, and advanced AI, the human dimension of warfare—trust, adaptability, and leadership—remains constant. At the conclusion of the episode, listeners will hear a narrated excerpt from Safe Harbor II, immersing them in the dilemmas Marine Raiders may face in the conflicts of 2040. Ben Jebb and Don Edwards are the hosts for this episode. Please reach out to Ben and Don with any questions about this episode or the Irregular Warfare Podcast.

Episode 134 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast explores the rising risks of conflict over Taiwan and how the United States and its allies can strengthen deterrence against Beijing. Our guests begin by assessing why deterrence is faltering globally, from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and how those events inform Chinese perceptions of American resolve. They then discuss the stakes of a Taiwan contingency—economic, ideological, and strategic—highlighting the island’s critical role in global semiconductor supply chains and as a thriving democracy on China’s periphery. The conversation turns to the balance of forces across the Strait, Taiwan’s defense culture, and the full spectrum of Chinese coercive activity, from gray-zone operations to potential military invasion. Finally, our guests offer recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and partners like Japan, Australia, and Europe can bolster deterrence before conflict breaks out. Matt Pottinger is a distinguished national security professional who served as U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor from 2019 to 2021. He is the editor of The Boiling Moat, a new volume analyzing deterrence and security dynamics across the Taiwan Strait. Matt Turpin is a former U.S. National Security Council Director for China and a retired U.S. Army officer. He is currently a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, where his research focuses on U.S.-China relations and strategic competition. Ben Jebb and Katherine Michaelson are the hosts for this episode. Please reach out to Ben and Katherine with any questions about this episode or the Irregular Warfare Podcast.