The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may welcome two Middle East policy goals articulated by US President-elect Donald J. Trump in response to the Gaza ceasefire but may not like what it will take to achieve them. The same is true for the Palestinians, including the West Bank-based, internationally recognised Palestine Authority and Hamas.

Decimating Hezbollah and ousting President Bashar al-Assad were the first steps in a Middle Eastern power struggle that is likely to define not only who wields the most influence in Syria but also who will emerge as regional hegemons. Turkey, Israel, and Iran are prime candidates, with countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar playing catch up, at least in Syria. The line-up in Syria reflects the likely longer-term divvying up of influence regionally in a complex jigsaw puzzle.

Saudi Arabia brings out the worst in the world of international sports in terms of politics and greed. FIFA’s awarding Saudi Arabia the 2034 World Cup hosting rights is just the tip of the iceberg. The awarding violated the world soccer body’s human rights policy and mocked the sports world’s fiction that sports and politics are separate rather than Siamese twins joined at the hip. The Olympic Council of Asia’s earlier awarding of the 2029 Asian Winter Games to Saudi Arabia, even though the kingdom lacks a qualifying winter season and intends to hold the tournament in a troubled mega science fiction project that is under construction, is another example of politics and money trumping sports.

With Donald j. Trump two weeks away from returning to the White House, Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) fear that recent setbacks could open a Pandora’s box. Israel’s puncturing of Swiss cheese-sized holes in the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance has upended the Islamic Republic’s forward defence strategy, raised questions about the future of the IRGC’s Quds Force, its foreign operations arm, and risks turning Iran into a tradeable geopolitical commodity.

Israel’s once-vaunted military faces an uncertain future. Not just because the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is set to judge Israel's Gaza war conduct and the issuance by the International Criminal Court (ICC) of arrest warrants for Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. But also due to assertions that the military is unable or unwilling to enforce discipline, questioning of the military’s capacity to investigate itself, a long-held US-supported holy grail of the military’s self-perception as “the world’s most moral army,” and the rise of an officer corps infused by religious ultra-nationalism. In addition, several recent books by Israeli veterans of the Gaza war belie the military’s moral claim and document the traumatic fallout of Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack on Israel that killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, as well as 15 months of combat in the Strip.

Israel’s demolition of the ill-equipped Syrian military and the recent occupation of additional Syrian territory beyond the Golan Heights it conquered in the 1967 Middle East war is just one obstacle. So is a daunting list of challenges that, if unresolved, threaten the new Syrian rulers’ ability to rebuild an economy ravaged by 14 years of civil war and, potentially, the country’s territorial integrity. The challenges include Turkey’s military presence in northern Syria, fighting between a pro-Turkish militia and Syrian Kurds, differences over whether Syria should be a centralised state or a federation, the failure of large numbers of Al-Assad conscripts to turn in their weapons despite being promised amnesty, and concerns about the place of religious minorities in the future Syria.

The new leadership in Syria has dispatched officials to Saudi Arabia, for the first official visit outside the country. The delegation is being led by Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani, the defense minister and the head of intelligence services. James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, discusses the importance of the Syrian government's efforts to rebuild ties with Arab nations.

Once viewed as a breeder of religious extremism, Saudi Arabia earned brownie points as the international community sighed a sigh of relief when Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, substantially reduced global funding of ultra-conservative strands of Islam and started to propagate a socially more relaxed interpretation of the faith. Almost a decade later, the benefits of the change far outweigh the costs.

Much like Hezbollah miscalculated with its 15-month-long war of attrition against Israel, Yemen’s Houthi rebels risk being the next target in Israel’s campaign to rewrite the Middle East’s political map. “We will act with strength, determination, and ingenuity. Even if it takes time, the result will be the same as with other terrorist arms,” said Prime Mi Netanyahu said on Monday. Some Israelis suggest that to effectively target the Houthis, Israel should simultaneously emasculate Iran, already on the defensive because of the loss of ousted President Bashar al Assad’s Syria, the weakening of Lebanese Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah, and severe Israeli damage inflicted on the Islamic Republic’s air defenses.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s fall has seemingly turbocharged Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman dreams.

James M. Dorsey discusses on Radio Islam International the enormous challenges Syria confronts in the wake of the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad.

US and Israeli responses to President Bashar al-Assad’s fall offer a masterclass on how to discourage change in Syria. Rather than test and encourage Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, aka Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, US and Israeli actions seem designed to box him in and potentially set him up for failure.

Syrian rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, aka Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, appears to be a man who picks his battles.

Policymakers in Tehran and Moscow are asking who lost Syria in a tectonic rewrite of the Middle East’s geopolitical map that has ousted President Bashar al-Assad ‘s principal backers struggling to limit their losses.

Saudi Arabia has been awarded the men's 2034 World Cup. It will be the crowning event in its sport spending spree, having already reportedly invested £5bn since 2021, as it tries to diversify away from oil. Niall Paterson is joined by Sky News' Rob Harris and Middle East football expert James M Dorsey to discuss what it means for football and the kingdom. The plans are not lacking in ambition and include a new stadium 350m above ground level, in an as-yet unbuilt futuristic carless city. But big questions remain about how the country landed the cup, with its bid unopposed and the country consistently facing claims of human rights abuses

Saudi Arabia has been awarded the men's 2034 World Cup. It will be the crowning event in the kingdom’s sport spending spree, having already reportedly invested USD6.3 billion since 2021, as it tries to diversify away from oil. James M. Dorsey discusses FIFA’s awarding of the World Cup to Saudi Arabia with Steve Lai on the BBC.

Ahmed al Shara, aka Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, would like you to think he is a changed man.

“If Assad doesn’t have a force that’s willing to stand up for him, what are the Russians and Iranians going to do?” Dr. James Dorsey explains on the John Fredericks Show how the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria is a significant blow to Russia and Iran’s presence in the region.

On this edition of Parallax Views, Bashar al-Assad has fled Syria as the country's rebels have taken over the capital, Damascus. Assad has been President of Syria since 2000. His toppling at the hands of Syrian rebels, most notably Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, represents a historic moment both for Syria, which has been ravaged by a civil war since March 2011, and the wider Middle East. What does this mean for all the various players in the region such as Iran, Turkey, the U.S., Russia, the Kurds, Islamic State, and, perhaps most importantly, Syria itself? In order to answer some of these questions, journalist, scholar, and frequent Parallax Views guest James M. Dorsey returned to the program to unpack this historic moment. We'll discuss the potential scenarios for Syria's future, the question of HTS and its relationship to ultra-conservative Sunni Islam, jihadism, the winners and losers in this moment of Syria's history, the Syrian Civil War, Obama's record in Syria, U.S. President-elect Trump's comments that the U.S. should not get involved in Syria going forward, and much, much more!

A week into a rebel offensive, Syria is the potential fulcrum of a tectonic reordering of Middle Eastern geopolitics with President Bashar al-Assad as a key player. That is if Mr. Al-Assad is willing to play ball this time around.