5 in 5 with ANZ

Signs the sharp edges are coming off the global trade war have lifted US stocks and the US dollar, which means the Aussie and Kiwi dollars start lower this morning. South Korea’s economy weakened before the tariffs, while consumer confidence rises in New Zealand. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says markets may be welcoming some positive tariff news, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and the US dollar rallied overnight on hopes Donald Trump will cut tariffs on China, and after he said he doesn’t want to fire the Fed’s chair. But business surveys in the United States and Europe show economic activity has already softened. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses goods trade data to explain why Trump may be easing his tariff rhetoric in recent days. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rally as the US Treasury Secretary says the US-China trade conflict is unsustainable and is likely to ‘de-escalate’ soon. But surveys show weaker US economic activity in April due to tariff uncertainty. Also: gold backs off a new high. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, as ANZ Research downgrades its Asia-ex China growth forecasts, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur analyses how policymakers might respond to the tariff shock. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The ‘Sell America’ trade is back with a vengeance this morning after Donald Trump threatened the Fed’s independence again. The ECB cuts rates, with further easing expected, and Australia’s jobs market stays strong ahead of expected RBA rate cuts. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses the risks inherent in Donald Trump’s comments challenging the US Federal Reserve’s independence. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks slump again after Donald Trump restricts Nvidia chip exports to China. Safe-haven buying blasts Gold to US$3,349/oz. ANZ Research cuts its growth forecasts for US and China, and lowers its cash rate view for New Zealand In our bonus Deep Dive interview ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhao explains ANZ Research’s downgrade to its China growth forecasts as tariff uncertainty takes hold. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stock markets were stable overnight although the volatility may be short-lived. The Reserve Bank of Australia opens up for a May rate cut, while tariff uncertainty starts to show through in Australian consumer confidence. In the second part of a bonus Deep Dive interview on the US dollar’s reserve currency status, ANZ’s Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers explains why the Aussie dollar’s relationship with the US dollar is so important for Australian pension funds. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets find some rare stability after Donald Trump’s temporary pivot on computer and phone imports. China’s exporters are stopping shipments anyway. Singapore eases monetary policy. New Zealand’s economic recovery appears to stall. In the first part of a bonus Deep Dive interview with ANZ’s Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers, he talks about the US dollar’s reserve currency status — its exorbitant privilege. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The White House quietly exempted computers and phones from reciprocal import tariffs on Friday night after markets closed, but a Trump official has said the exemption is temporary. US consumer confidence slumps. Gold hits a record high. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explain why oil prices have fallen more than 15% in the last fortnight. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks are down as the White House points out total tariffs on China actually add up to 145%. Gold jumps to a record high. China is set to cut interest rates in response to Trump’s tariffs. And New Zealand’s truck movements indicate a sluggish recovery. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses yesterday’s pivot by Donald Trump to pause global tariff hikes, apart from China. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Donald Trump pauses reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, unleashing a furious rally in stocks, but increases his tariff on China to 125% after China retaliates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts rates by 25 basis points as expected, as does the Reserve Bank of India. Meanwhile, the Yen is attracting safe-haven demand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sophia Angala reviews how Australian states and territories performed at the end of last year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks initially rose overnight on hopes for trade deals, but are off their highs in late US trade on confirmation China’s exports will face a 104% tariff within the day. The RBNZ is set to cut today, but will it be 25 bps or 50? And confidence surveys in Australia and New Zealand show confidence rebounded, but that was before the tariff news. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga says the market reaction to the US administration’s latest tariff announcements could result in a Trump pivot. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are very volatile again this morning after Donald Trump threatened another 50% tariff on China. Hong Kong stocks fell 9.5%, their worst day since 1997. The Aussie dollar falls below 60 USc to a five-year low. The Kiwi is at a 16-year low. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, looks at whether China will now push even harder to de-dollarise its foreign reserves. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks fall the most since March 2020 after Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff shock. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars slump after China retaliates. And ANZ Research now sees the RBA cutting three times this year, rather than once. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, analyses the economic effects on India of the 26% tariff rate put on its exports to the United States. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks, bond yields and the US dollar are down sharply after Donald Trump unveiled much higher than expected tariffs. Investors fear a US recession and higher inflation. Australia though may fare better, with gold exempted, and beef prices high. In our bonus deep dive interview, I spoke with ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny late last night about what would be an unprecedented rise in US tariffs to higher than levels seen after the Smoot Hawley Act of 1930. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets rose overnight, but are in a holding pattern ahead of Donald Trump’s big tariff announcements due at 7am Sydney/Melbourne time. Australia’s housing market picks up, while New Zealand building approvals stay sluggish, and inflation unexpectedly rises in South Korea in the middle of a rate cut cycle. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan outlines ANZ Research’s work developing a new method to detect Foreign Exchange trading signals. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US markets are defensive ahead of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff news, just as weak US manufacturing and jobs data raises slowdown fears. The Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates, but hawkishly. Australian consumer confidence rises and retail sales keep recovering. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why Asian economies may be particularly nervous about the upcoming US tariff announcements, and how they might react. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and more risk-sensitive currencies weakened ahead of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ of tariff announcements. Gold jumps to US$3,160/oz. China’s factories brace for tariffs too. Australia’s bank lending growth is steady. In our bonus deep dive interview, Greater China Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou analyses the prospects for a second Plaza Accord-style deal on semiconductors between Taiwan and the United States, similar to a US-Japan deal in 1986. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US investors start the week nervously ahead of tariff news they’ve yet to fully price in. Gold hits a new high. Japanese inflation is rising, which is seen leading to another Bank of Japan rate hike. And New Zealand consumer confidence fell in March. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin looks at who might be the winners and losers in the tariffs Donald Trump is set to confirm, or at least announce, on Wednesday night. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks trade cautiously after Donald Trump sets a 25% tariff on car and car part imports. Gold hits a record high US$3,100/oz. Australia’s Federal Government borrowing task has jumped, and the People’s Bank of China turns dovish. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh analyses why heavy equity outflows from Asian economies are likely to keep flowing after a swathe of US tariff announcements due on April 2. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks slide on fears Trump will announce car tariffs tonight. UK inflation falls unexpectedly. Australia’s inflation rate slips as Budget rebates are set to keep repressing headline CPI. And Indonesia’s currency is the lowest it’s been since the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari tracks the fortunes of silver following record-setting price moves for gold. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/