5 in 5 with ANZ

Stronger than expected inflation in the UK pushes out rate cut bets, as PM Sunak calls a snap election; New Zealand’s Reserve Bank turns hawkish and pushes out rate cuts; Indonesia holds rates; Singapore’s core inflation is expected to rise. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks ahead to a key meeting of global oil producers, and what it could mean for supply and the oil price. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are flat ahead of Fed minutes. The RBA board discussed a rate hike more than was thought. Aussie renters feel more confident after the Budget. There are rate decisions today in New Zealand and Indonesia. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at why global oil demand has been dragged down recently. One reason is Americans are driving less. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US Fed officials see disinflation progress and indicate rate rises are unlikely. US dollar firms further vs the Yen. China property prices would need to fall 35% to trigger buyer interest because rental yields are still too low, says ANZ China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman looks at why New Zealand’s soggy economic outlook is unlikely to get much support from the RBNZ, which is expected to hold rates at 5.5% tomorrow. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

China has announced a major rescue package to buy unsold apartments and remove restrictions for homebuyers. New Zealand’s economy is soggy, but shouldn’t expect help from a rate cut any time soon. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur analyses what labour costs across Southeast Asian economies say about their regional competitiveness and productivity. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Dow rises through 40,000. Fed speakers see monetary policy working. US jobless claims and factory output data reinforce hopes for a rate cut or cuts later this year. Australia’s labour market may be softening faster than the RBA is expecting. In our bonus deep dive interview, following on from our coverage of China’s politburo declaring they want to reduce unsold property inventories, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung say they need to be careful from a financial stability perspective that prices don’t drop too much. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US Treasury yields are down after April CPI was softer than expected, but the Fed may still want to wait. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars jump. Good news for the RBA as Australian wage growth peaks. Japan’s economy may have contracted in Q1. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman discusses ANZ’s call this week that the US dollar won’t weaken as much over the year as previously expected. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US Fed Chair shrugs off stronger US producer prices ahead of CPI data tonight. Power rebates & tax cuts turn Australian budget surpluses into deficits, but also cut inflation. New Zealand’s property market continues to struggle. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why monetary policies of the world’s major central banks are diverging. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Markets are holding tight ahead of US price data. Australian business condition fall is ok for the RBA. India’s food prices rise, but inflation close to forecast. There was good and bad news on New Zealand’s inflation front. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung says the Chinese Politburo’s recent shift on property policy shows authorities are facing up to the reality of high inventories and low demand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global stocks start the week near record highs, with all eyes on US inflation figures for confirmation the Fed can ease this year. China’s economy is showing early signs of recovery. New Zealand manufacturing is still contracting, but at a slower rate In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Head of Economics Adam Boyton previews the Australian Federal Budget due at 7.30pm Canberra time on Tuesday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Bank of England holds and says it will cut rates within a month or two. Malaysia’s central bank is more upbeat about growth as it holds. China’s exports rebound, and in the Philippines, soft consumer spending drags on GDP growth. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman looks at the uncertainties shrouding New Zealand’s housing market right now, and how developments in Auckland might affect the rest of the country. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The Boston Fed President says rates are likely to be held for longer. The Bank of Japan’s governor says big yen moves are undesirable. Taiwan’s exports are weaker than expected. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur recalibrates when Asian central banks might be able to cut, given changing expectations about when and how much the Fed cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US rate cut optimism is growing with soft US labour market data. The RBA was less hawkish than expected, but won’t rule anything in or out. Australian consumers are really feeling the pinch. Inflation stays on target in Taiwan and the Philippines. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data is underpinning global commodity prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks rise as traders find comfort in Fed rate cut hopes; All eyes on how hawkish the RBA will turn today; Indonesia’s GDP is supported by election spending; and holiday travel data shows Chinese consumers may be coming out of their shells. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses the outlook for the US dollar and Treasuries if Donald Trump wins the US Presidential election in November. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US jobs growth was weaker than expected, so US bonds and stocks rallied. US Treasury yields and the US dollar fell. The RBA is expected to hold hawkishly tomorrow. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at what a Donald Trump re-election could mean for the US-China bilateral relationship. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US bond yields fell after Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared to rule out rate hikes. Japanese authorities may have intervened again to hold up the yen. South Korean and Indonesian inflation eases. Australia’s record imports suggest demand is holding up. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby looks at how global economic developments, and the weather, are affecting demand for New Zealand’s key primary exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US Federal Reserve has kept rates on hold and signaled a lack of progress towards its 2% inflation goal in recent months. New Zealand’s labour market weakens, but wage growth is still high. The copper price has been on a roll in 2024. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty looks at how non-China Asia exports have been supported this year by strong US demand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Stronger US wage data adds to fears rates will be on hold for longer. Core inflation progress in Europe supports a June cut by the ECB. China’s factory output rises. Weak Australian retail sales cause a rethink on the RBA’s rate track. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Economist Miles Workman looks closely at why consumers in New Zealand are so down in the dumps. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The yen bounces hard after slumping through 160. Some think Japan’s authorities intervened, but there’s no confirmation. ANZ Research has changed its expectation for Fed rate cuts this year to two 25 basis point cuts from four. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at how the RBA might react if Australia’s stage 3 tax cuts improve consumer confidence, which is now near 1990s-recession level lows. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US dollar has spiked up over 158 yen. Traders are on high alert for intervention by Japanese authorities. Market expectations for rate cuts by the Fed and RBA keep being pushed out. New Zealand consumer confidence falls again In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at why Australian consumer confidence is at 1990s-style recession-level lows and when it might pick up. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks fell and US Treasury yields rose after US growth and inflation data was worse than expected. Australia’s strong CPI could shift the RBA’s rate cut track out. Indonesia hikes rates to bolster its currency and South Korea’s GDP beats forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur looks at what central banks across Asia face in terms of monetary policy and their currencies if the US Fed delays rate cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/