Views from Down Underer

Will the NZ-India FTA see the light of day? PM Takaichi leads Japan's LDP to a big electoral victory. Singapore's Deputy PM raised concern about AI and its impact on jobs and the future economy.

Canadian PM Mark Carney delivered a hard hitting speech declaring the 'rules-based international order' as ruptured and calling for middle powers of the world to unite. While many observers and non-western states have known (and complained) for a long time, this the first time that a Western leader finally yelled out: "The emperor has no clothes."

Thai-Cambodia border conflict flares again months after a peace accord signed in the presence of US President Trump. In the midst of this conflict, Thai PM dissolves parliament and calls for new general election.

Tensions brewing between China and Japan due to PRC's response to Japanese PM's comments about 'survival-threatening situation' pertaining to conflict in the Taiwan Strait. What's happening here? Over-reaction? Playing to domestic constituencies? Nationalism at play? Chinese envoy to NZ wrote a warning letter to NZ MPs that attended Taiwan's national day reception in Wellington. Wolf-warrior at play again? Principal-agent issues? Misunderstanding of how Westminster system works? Fallout of the US government shutdown and Epstein files is the resignation announcement of big MAGA supporter Marjorie Taylor-Greene.

We share our experience of learning foreign languages and the importance of learning a different language. One of our students currently studying Mandarin Chinese in Taiwan shares her experience learning the language and living in Taipei.

ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur saw the formal admission of Timor Leste as the newest ASEAN member, the transfer of chair-ship to the Philippines and US President Trump attended the summit. Seoul hosted the APEC meeting but the Trump-XI meeting stole the show as the leaders of the two largest economies met face to face.

We discuss a forthcoming research article to be published at the Comparative Political Studies by Jonathan Chu and colleagues on whether people are willing to trade-off democracy for desirable outcomes. The paper using experiments show that while free and fair elections are a desired, people in the six countries they studied (including US, Japan, Italy) are willing to trade it off to avoid living in dangerous societies.

Recent news about Australia's pacts with Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu has highlighted the important of geopolitical competition in the South Pacific. However, despite the announcement of these pacts, they were not officially signed in time from the Pacific Island Forum. What are these pacts? Are there outstanding issues that preventing the pacts from being signed? We are joined by Henrietta McNeill-Stowers, Michael Kabuni, and Anna Naupa of the Australian National University to discuss these news.

Poland invoked NATO article 4 due to Russian drones violating Polish airspace. Immigration agents in the US raided a South Korean EV plant in the state of Georgia and deported over 300 South Korean workers.

We hosted a conference on "Asia-Pacific states: navigating and managing global disorder" a week ago. We share insights we learned from the conference. US Trump administration is planning to rebrand Pentagon to Department of War. The cost of this renaming alone can be in billions of dollars.

What happened or not in the Alaska summit between Trump and Putin? Two Chinese ships collided while doing a pincer move chasing a Philippine coast guard vessel. Will there be escalation in the future?

We discuss a paper on the political economy of geoeconomic power and discuss what theory means when applied to real world empirics. In an New York Times guest essay authored by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer titled "Why We Remade the Global Order," Greer argues that the agreement between the EU and the US made at Turnberry resort is a new world order much like Bretton Woods set the postwar world order. Is the comparison valid? We discuss the essay and assess its claims.

The Thai-Cambodia border skirmish has now escalated with both sides firing artillery across their borders. Why the escalation now? Japan's LDP loses its upper house majority and what does it mean for PM Ishiba's tenure as LDP party leader. Taiwan has a recall election in a bid to unseat KMT legislators and allow the DPP to regain legislative majority that the ruling party lost in the January 2024 general election. So what is the result and what are the implications of this recall election on party politics in Taiwan?

White House has sent out tariff letters to numerous countries but the the import taxes do not take effect till August 1st. FM Penny Wong gave a speech in the ASEAN meeting about managing differences between allies. Other interesting news such as the confirmation grilling of the US ambassador-designate to Singapore, the advanced RAF fighter jet stuck in India, and how Myanmar military junta received the US tariff letters.

China's FM had a meeting with EU counterpart to discuss outstanding issues on bilateral relations. A Philippine documentary "Food Delivery" on the South China Sea has received attention such that there are active lobbying by Chinese diplomats to not show the documentary. There is still continuing fallout from the leaked call of the Thai PM with former Cambodian PM. Thai PM is suspended pending investigation while calls for her resignation gets louder.

US bombed Iran's nuclear facility about a week after Israel attacked Iran. Why did the US attack now? Will their be a fallout from this decision? Is there a risk of a widening regional conflict? Thailand's border conflict with Cambodia has a new twist. A private phone conversation between the Thai PM and Cambodia's ex-strongman leader Hun Sen was leaked and led to calls for resignation of the PM.

Israel attacked Iran to decapitate its nuclear program and Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks. Will this turn into a regional war? NZ PM will visit Beijing, with lots going on domestically and internationally what are some of their likely talking points? Pentagon has decided to review the AUKUS arrangements catching Australia by surprise and also ahead of an upcoming visit by the Australian PM to the US. US Army celebrated its 250th anniversary with a military parade which are rare in the US.

South Korean liberal politician Lee Jae-myung won the presidency. With Korean society so polarised is this a 'poisoned chalice.' Trump administration in a spat with California threatened to cut federal funding, in turn California governor Gavin Newsom threatened to not turn over California's federal taxes. What is this spat all about? Thailand and Cambodia are having a dispute over part of its shared border. The militaries of both countries have been mobilised. What does this mean for the concept of ASEAN as a security community?

Shangrila Dialogue was held in Singapore last week. French president Macron spoke of the importance of Europe to engage Asia. US defense secretary Hegseth warns about hedging and implores regional states to spend at least 5% on their defense. Interestingly, China did not send their defense minister instead an academic delegation from their defense university.

US naval ship visits New Zealand after PLA Navy ships showed up in the Tasman Sea several months ago. With NZ planning to increase defense spending does this mean a closer defense relationship between the two countries since the breakup of ANZUS in the late 1980s? Philippine midterm elections shows the strength of political dynasties in the Philippines and the seeming weakness of Philippine political institutions. Is this a sign of poor institutional design? Wall Street Journal reports that US is planning to reduce the number of soldiers based in South Korea and Singapore warns foreign embassies not to interfere in domestic affairs.