Views from Down Underer

Hungarian election resulted in the end of PM Orban's 16-year reign. What lessons does it offer? Is it a glimmer of hope to reverse democratic backsliding? New Zealand's National Party is dropping in public opinion polls leading to the general election this November. There is unrest within the party and there are rumours about party leadership change.

US-Israeli conflict with Iran is still ongoing and with the global economy held hostage due to the 'closure' of the Strait of Hormuz, US president Trump said that keeping the Strait open is not the US's problem. In a reverse 'Pottery Barn rule' -- US breaks it but does not want to own it. Even better it is what we call the 'Pampers rule' -- I make a mess, you clean up for me. NZ-Cook Island signed a pact a year after Cook Island surprised NZ with a partnership with China. Is this NZ exercising and imposing its power on its smaller partner? Lastly, young Aussies are said to be dismayed with democracy. Is this a blip or a trend?

The US-Israeli conflict with Iran has intensified. Iran has hit back at Gulf states and Israel. Iran has also closed the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of petroleum is transported. Stock markets have been volatile, oil prices have increased substantially, fertilizer prices have shot up. Is there an off-ramp? Will the global economy be resilient enough to sustain this market volatility?

Canadian PM Mark Carney visited Australia as part of his Indo-Pacific middle powers tour. Iran conflict enters its second week, what is the end game or is there even one? NZ PM is having a tough week trying to clarify NZ’s position on the US-Israel attack on Iran. His poll numbers are not good going into the year end general elections.

US and Israel attacked Iran that killed Iran's top leadership. Iran has responded by expanding the conflict to neighboring states. The Strait of Hormuz is now closed and air travel is impacted. Why is this happening at this time? What are the implications?

Recent Munich Security Conference followed up on the 'rupture' speech by Canadian PM Carney, US State Secretary delivered a similar message to last year's US VP Vance's speech but seem to be sugar-coated. Is Europe ready to take defense in its own hands? China's has been investing heavily on renewable energy while the US is now lagging behind. What does this mean for China's green future? Finally, ex-South Korean president was sentenced to life sentence for insurrection and treason for his part in the 3 December 2024 declaration of martial law. What does it mean for South Korean domestic politics?

Will the NZ-India FTA see the light of day? PM Takaichi leads Japan's LDP to a big electoral victory. Singapore's Deputy PM raised concern about AI and its impact on jobs and the future economy.

Canadian PM Mark Carney delivered a hard hitting speech declaring the 'rules-based international order' as ruptured and calling for middle powers of the world to unite. While many observers and non-western states have known (and complained) for a long time, this the first time that a Western leader finally yelled out: "The emperor has no clothes."

Thai-Cambodia border conflict flares again months after a peace accord signed in the presence of US President Trump. In the midst of this conflict, Thai PM dissolves parliament and calls for new general election.

Tensions brewing between China and Japan due to PRC's response to Japanese PM's comments about 'survival-threatening situation' pertaining to conflict in the Taiwan Strait. What's happening here? Over-reaction? Playing to domestic constituencies? Nationalism at play? Chinese envoy to NZ wrote a warning letter to NZ MPs that attended Taiwan's national day reception in Wellington. Wolf-warrior at play again? Principal-agent issues? Misunderstanding of how Westminster system works? Fallout of the US government shutdown and Epstein files is the resignation announcement of big MAGA supporter Marjorie Taylor-Greene.

We share our experience of learning foreign languages and the importance of learning a different language. One of our students currently studying Mandarin Chinese in Taiwan shares her experience learning the language and living in Taipei.

ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur saw the formal admission of Timor Leste as the newest ASEAN member, the transfer of chair-ship to the Philippines and US President Trump attended the summit. Seoul hosted the APEC meeting but the Trump-XI meeting stole the show as the leaders of the two largest economies met face to face.

We discuss a forthcoming research article to be published at the Comparative Political Studies by Jonathan Chu and colleagues on whether people are willing to trade-off democracy for desirable outcomes. The paper using experiments show that while free and fair elections are a desired, people in the six countries they studied (including US, Japan, Italy) are willing to trade it off to avoid living in dangerous societies.

Recent news about Australia's pacts with Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu has highlighted the important of geopolitical competition in the South Pacific. However, despite the announcement of these pacts, they were not officially signed in time from the Pacific Island Forum. What are these pacts? Are there outstanding issues that preventing the pacts from being signed? We are joined by Henrietta McNeill-Stowers, Michael Kabuni, and Anna Naupa of the Australian National University to discuss these news.

Poland invoked NATO article 4 due to Russian drones violating Polish airspace. Immigration agents in the US raided a South Korean EV plant in the state of Georgia and deported over 300 South Korean workers.

We hosted a conference on "Asia-Pacific states: navigating and managing global disorder" a week ago. We share insights we learned from the conference. US Trump administration is planning to rebrand Pentagon to Department of War. The cost of this renaming alone can be in billions of dollars.

What happened or not in the Alaska summit between Trump and Putin? Two Chinese ships collided while doing a pincer move chasing a Philippine coast guard vessel. Will there be escalation in the future?

We discuss a paper on the political economy of geoeconomic power and discuss what theory means when applied to real world empirics. In an New York Times guest essay authored by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer titled "Why We Remade the Global Order," Greer argues that the agreement between the EU and the US made at Turnberry resort is a new world order much like Bretton Woods set the postwar world order. Is the comparison valid? We discuss the essay and assess its claims.

The Thai-Cambodia border skirmish has now escalated with both sides firing artillery across their borders. Why the escalation now? Japan's LDP loses its upper house majority and what does it mean for PM Ishiba's tenure as LDP party leader. Taiwan has a recall election in a bid to unseat KMT legislators and allow the DPP to regain legislative majority that the ruling party lost in the January 2024 general election. So what is the result and what are the implications of this recall election on party politics in Taiwan?

White House has sent out tariff letters to numerous countries but the the import taxes do not take effect till August 1st. FM Penny Wong gave a speech in the ASEAN meeting about managing differences between allies. Other interesting news such as the confirmation grilling of the US ambassador-designate to Singapore, the advanced RAF fighter jet stuck in India, and how Myanmar military junta received the US tariff letters.