The Weather Man Podcast, I talk about weather!

...Dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding likely today for portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana... ...Potentially significant heavy rainfall threat spreads into portions of southern Mississippi and western Alabama tomorrow... ...Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and South Texas into this weekend... The main weather story today remains the dangerous and life-threatening flash flood potential over the Lower Mississippi Valley into the overnight hours as widespread thunderstorms batter areas which are very vulnerable to additional rainfall. Since the upgrade to a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall last night, little has changed this afternoon regarding the placement and severity of the flash flooding threat in eastern Texas and western Louisiana. Radar across east-central Texas this afternoon depicts an expansive thunderstorm complex growing along a warm front, with very moist and unstable air feeding into it to support continuous storm development this afternoon. Going into the evening and overnight hours, repeating of these thunderstorms containing very heavy rainfall rates within the complex will lead to rainfall amounts of 5-8" today within the High Risk area over eastern Texas and western Louisiana before the thunderstorms migrate eastward by tomorrow morning. Remember, High Risks for Excessive Rainfall are a BIG DEAL: 1/3 flood related fatalities and 4/5 flood related damages occur in WPC High Risks, so pay attention to the latest warning information and NEVER drive or walk into floodwaters. Flooding aside, the same storms are also capable of producing a few tornadoes, severe wind, and hail, with the Storm Prediction Center maintaining an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather over much of the same area today. By tomorrow morning, the threat of significant flash flooding will spread east into southern Mississippi and western Alabama as the aforementioned warm front stalls out over the Southeast. Once again, a very moist and unstable atmosphere appears primed to support bouts of prolific heavy rainfall, with multiple rounds of storms expected as multiple disturbances aloft traverse the area. When combined with saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) is in effect tomorrow with areal rainfall amounts upwards of 2-5" (locally up to 7") possible. It should be noted that there is some uncertainty with where the heaviest rain falls owing to how the current storms in Texas behave later today, so stay tuned for any adjustments to the forecast. Once again, severe weather will also be an issue south of the warm front across the Gulf States, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) in effect for few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging wind. The same warm front driving the thunderstorms will also contribute to sweltering heat in South Florida and Texas. Recent experimental NWS HeatRisk guidance continues to suggest moderate to locally major heat related impacts will continue across these areas at least through Saturday due to the combination of heat indices eclipsing 100 degrees, with little overnight relief expected.

Unsettled weather persists across the Northeast and Central U.S today... ...Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas this week ... ...Significant flash flooding possible across portions of East Texas into the Gulf States tomorrow and Friday... Several focused areas of stormy and unsettled weather can be expected today across the central and eastern parts of the Lower 48 as a series of frontal systems gradually migrate eastward. Along the Eastern Seaboard, coastal low pressure located over the southern DelMarVa will maintain locally heavy rainfall chances over Eastern Long Island and Coastal New England through tomorrow morning, with 2-3" of rain and isolated flash flooding possible as the storm wraps up offshore. Much of this activity in the Northeast will remain steady stratiform rainfall, with the bulk of robust thunderstorms being confined to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will be more widespread across the Plains states this afternoon as a very warm and moist Gulf of Mexico airmass is drawn northward ahead of a weak cold front. Severe weather is the big story there, as the Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms across the Texas Panhandle and Southern Kansas. The same Gulf airmass will set the stage for a bout of unusually early hot weather in South Florida and Texas, with heat indices exceeding 100 degrees possible. Owing to the combination of oppressive heat indices and forecast record warm overnight temperatures in these areas, major heat-related impacts are possible with this round of hot weather through the work week according to experimental NWS HeatRisk guidance. The forecast remains on track for widespread heavy rainfall across portions of East Texas and West Mississippi tomorrow as repeat thunderstorm complexes track across the region, where a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) is in effect. Areal averages of 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is forecast for the Moderate Risk area, and locally higher amounts will be possible, which suggests numerous instances of flash flooding are likely as the region is very sensitive to any additional rainfall. The threat is expected to roll into Friday with another Moderate Risk depicted over southern Mississippi and Alabama, as the environment is ripe for continued thunderstorm development.

Unsettled weather spreads into parts of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast today... ...Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas this week ... ...Significant flash flooding possible across portions of East Texas and Louisiana on Thursday... A fairly weak frontal system centered over the Missouri Bootheel continues to drive wet and unsettled weather east of the Mississippi River today, with several areas of shower and thunderstorm activity noted across the eastern half of the Lower 48. Through tomorrow morning, the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of severe weather across the Tennessee Valley and over North-Central Florida as thunderstorms organize and intensify this afternoon. Severe hail and wind remain the primary concerns, although a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated flash flooding also can not be ruled out with some of these storms along the slow moving front, with localized rainfall of 1-3" possible. Across South Florida, persistent southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching mid-level ridge axis will set the stage for very warm weather beginning tomorrow, with heat indices exceeding 100 degrees possible. Localized Major heat-related impacts are possible with this round of hot weather through the work week according to experimental NWS HeatRisk guidance. Hazardous heat also will build into South Texas tomorrow and Thursday as a warm front returns northward from the Gulf of Mexico, ushering in a very warm and moist airmass into the region. Heat aside, this returning warm front will also set the stage for potentially significant heavy rainfall across East Texas and Louisiana on Thursday as training thunderstorms focus along the frontal boundary. The current forecast calls for areal rainfall totals of 3-4" (locally higher) in this region, which has seen a near continuous stream of heavy rainfall over the last two weeks and is particularly sensitive to any additional rain. Accordingly, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) is in effect on the Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, which suggests numerous instances of flash flooding are likely Thursday into Friday.

Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will impact portions of the Gulf Coast tonight and the Southeast on Tuesday... ...Above-average temperatures expected for South Florida and the West... A slow-moving frontal boundary extending along the Gulf Coast will remain a focus for unsettled weather, with severe thunderstorms and heavy rain expected to impact portions of the region through Tuesday. Ongoing showers and storms are likely to continue through tonight, with severe storms expected from south-central and southeast Texas across southern Louisiana, as well as the Florida Panhandle. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted these areas with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather, indicating the potential exists for multiple corridors of damaging winds, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition to the severe weather threat, abundant moisture pooling along front will support heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall extends along the Gulf Coast from southeast Texas through the Florida Panhandle, with a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Drier air will push through the western Gulf Coast, confining the threat for severe storms and heavy rainfall to northern Florida and southern Georgia on Tuesday. SPC is indicating a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather and WPC is highlighting the area with a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Further to the north, a low pressure system will drift slowly east, spreading showers and thunderstorms from the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi valleys to the Ohio Valley tonight. Showers and storms will continue across these areas on Tuesday while expanding east through the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. Unsettled weather will persist across the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast through Wednesday. A brief window of drier weather over the Mississippi Valley late Tuesday into early Wednesday will be followed by the next round of showers and storms that will begin to spread into the region by late Wednesday. Before impacting the central U.S. on Wednesday, this previously noted system will spread showers and storms followed by much cooler temperatures from the northern Rockies into central Rockies and High Plains on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain well above-normal, with near to record high temperatures expected across South Florida Tuesday and Wednesday. While not expected to be record-setting, temperatures will build across much of the West, reaching well-above normal highs across the region by

Risk for numerous instances of flash flooding will shift from eastern Texas/central Louisiana late Sunday to the central Gulf Coast Monday... ...Showers and storms expected ahead of a cold front across the Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley Monday, spreading into the Ohio Valley and Interior Northeast by Tuesday... ...Generally above average temperatures expected for the West... A southern stream upper-level wave and associated surface frontal system traversing the south-central U.S. this weekend/early next week will continue to bring extremely heavy rainfall and the threat for flash flooding, as well as severe weather, from the Southern Plains to the Southeast. The threat Sunday evening into early Monday morning will be focused on portions of eastern Texas into central Louisiana where a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) remains in place. Here, abundant moisture and strong CAPE will lead to very heavy downpours with additional rounds of storms focusing along a slow moving warm front leading to several inches of rain on top of wet antecedent conditions. Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding remain possible overnight Sunday. The system will continue eastward Monday, with the threat of very to extremely heavy rainfall extending along the warm front through the central Gulf Coast. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) stretches from eastern Texas to the Florida Panhandle, with a more concentrated Moderate Risk centered on southeastern Louisiana to the far western Florida Panhandle where the greatest confidence in coverage of repeated storms producing intense downpours exist. The prospect of several inches of rain could lead to numerous additional instances of flash flooding Monday. Additionally, storms will also have the potential to become severe, with a Slight Risk of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center stretching from central Texas to southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle for the threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The warm front will begin to lift further northeastward on Tuesday, with showers and storms extending towards the Atlantic coast of the Carolinas and Georgia. Another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall exists across this region southwestward through the Florida Panhandle where a few additional scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible.

Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm chances extend from the southern High Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley over the next few days... ...Wet and cool conditions forecast across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast this weekend... ...Well above average temperatures expected throughout the West and north-central United States... After a brief lull, active weather is anticipated to return to the southern Plains tonight before spreading into the central/western Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley through early next week. A closed upper-low over the Southwest and lingering frontal boundary extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the southern Rockies is expected to be the trigger for developing thunderstorms this evening. Isolated strong storms may occur from southeast New Mexico to West Texas, with the potential for large hail, strong wind gusts, and localized flash flooding. Unsettled weather is also forecast to stretch into the central Rockies and central High Plains. By Sunday, the aforementioned upper low is forecast to slide eastward into the central Plains and shift thunderstorm chances eastward throughout much of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. However, the greatest threat with these storms are likely to be associated with flash flooding, particularly throughout parts of eastern and north-central Texas. Saturated ground conditions and additional heavy rain may lead to numerous instances of flash flooding, with Waco, Texas and points eastward to near the Louisiana border under a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are then forecast to shift toward the central/western Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley, producing additional chances for flash flooding and severe weather. Meanwhile, the northern end of the precipitation shield is forecast to push ahead of a low pressure system swinging from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, with a few inches of rain possible into Kansas and Missouri by the end of the weekend. Unsettled weather may also dampen weekend plans from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, as well the northern Plains. A low pressure system tracking from the lower Great Lakes this evening to the Mid-Atlantic coastline Sunday afternoon will spread showers across the region, while also keeping temperatures on the cooler side. Further west, a lingering frontal boundary may spawn scattered thunderstorms across the northern Plains on Sunday. A taste of summer is expected to continue for some folks as well above average temperatures stretch from the West to the Midwest on Mother's Day. Highs in the 70s and 80s will be widespread (90s in the Southwest), with above average temperatures also impacting southern Texas and Florida into Monday.

Wet weekend in store for portions of the Central/Southern Plains and adjacent Rockies... A pair of frontal systems will bring shower and storm chances from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic this weekend... Above average temperatures will spread across the West and north-central U.S. this weekend... A wet weekend is in store for portions of the Central/Southern Plains and adjacent Rockies as a cooler, moist airmass has settled in north of a frontal boundary stalled out just south of the U.S.-Mexico border. Scattered, lighter showers through Friday evening/early Saturday will become more widespread and heavier through the day Saturday, with isolated flash flooding possible. Higher elevations of the central Rockies will see some snow, though accumulations should remain much lighter compared to the past couple of days. Then, on Sunday, the boundary will lift back northward through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley as a warm front, bringing deeper moisture, higher instability, and the potential for more intense downpours. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/5) has been issued for portions of central/eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley for the risk of scattered flash flooding, particularly where antecedent conditions remain wet due to recent heavy rainfall in eastern Texas. To the east, shower and thunderstorm chances will taper off along the East Coast Friday evening as a cold front pushes offshore, lingering longest across Florida. Another frontal system dropping southeast from Canada will bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes overnight Friday, then spreading into the Upper Ohio Valley/Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic during the day Saturday. Storms will diminish overnight Saturday as this system departs the East Coast as well. Yet another system is forecast to follow in its wake, bringing some renewed scattered storm chances to the Great Lakes Sunday. Other areas of the country should remain mostly dry through the weekend. An upper-level ridge building over the West Coast and eastward into the north-central U.S. is expected to lead to widespread well-above average temperatures across those regions this weekend. Forecast highs Saturday from California northward into the Pacific Northwest will range in the 80s to low 90s. The focus for warmer temperatures will shift more into the Interior West/Great Basin Sunday. While not quite as warm, temperatures through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains will still be well above average, with highs in the 70s to low 80s expected. These warmer temperatures will spread into the Midwest by Sunday. In contrast, cooler, below average temperatures are expected most elsewhere across the eastern and central U.S. following the frontal passage. Forecast highs range from the 50s and 60s in New England and the Mid-Atlantic, the 70s to low 80s across the Southeast, and 60s and 70s into the Central/Southern Plains. Areas of south Texas and Florida will remain warmer, with 80s and some 90s forecast.

Broad area of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather and flash flooding continues Thursday evening across the Southeast/Southern Plains. Storm chances linger along the East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic through Florida Friday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected along the central/southern High Plains, with snow for higher elevations of the central Rockies. Well above average high temperatures forecast for portions of California and the Pacific Northwest heading into the weekend... A broad area of showers and thunderstorms will continue Thursday evening and into early Friday morning ahead of a frontal boundary pushing southeastward through the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Plains. A broad Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) from the the Storm Prediction Center is in place for the threat of damaging winds and a few tornadoes, as well as very large hail for locations further west across the eastern half of Texas. In addition, the combination of multiple rounds of organized storms passing through the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast, and the prospect of robust thunderstorms with intense downpours over Texas, has prompted a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the same region, with some scattered flash flooding possible. Additional storms will also continue in the post-frontal airmass further north across the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic as an upper-level wave passes by. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible here as well. The front will continue southeastward Friday morning, with the focus for showers and storms shifting towards the East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic south to Florida. The threat of some damaging winds will remain possible with storms across southern Georgia and the northern Florida Peninsula/Big Bend Region, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather continuing through Friday. Storms should come to an end through Friday evening for most locations as the front pushes eastward off the coast except for areas of South Florida. Another upper-level wave/surface frontal system dropping southeastward from Canada will bring another round of some light to moderate showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest Friday afternoon and Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Friday evening. Storm chances will spread into the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday. To the west, the frontal boundary responsible for the storms over the Southeast/Southern Plains will also bring a continued chances of showers and storms along the central/southern High Plains and into the adjacent Rockies as the boundary lingers through the region. Most lower elevation areas will see light to moderate rainfall, though some heavier showers will be possible heading into later Saturday evening for portions of west Texas, with some isolated flash flooding possible. Higher elevations of the central Rockies in Colorado along and east of the Continental Divide will see accumulating snowfall through Friday, with some locally heavier totals of 6-12" possible. Precipitation chances should linger through at least Saturday evening, the end of the current forecast period. Unsurprisingly, temperatures will tend to be below average across much of the eastern/central U.S. and into the central/southern Rockies following the passage of the cold front. Forecast highs Friday-Saturday range from the 50s and 60s in New England and the Mid-Atlantic west through the Great Lakes, with 60s and 70s southwest through the Ohio Valley/Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains. Highs will remain warmer ahead of the front across the Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley into southern Texas on Friday, with 80s generally expected, before temperature drop for most locati

Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are likely from parts of the Ozarks to the Tennessee Valley tonight before the severe weather threat shifts south on Thursday toward the Southern Plains and Southeast... ...Heavy mountain snow and and moderate lower elevation rain gradually wanes across the Northern Rockies on Thursday... ...Above average temperatures remain across southern Texas and the Southeast, while warmth also begins to build into the Northwest late-week... Active weather is ongoing and expected to continue through tonight across parts of the middle/lower Mississippi valleys, Tennessee Valley, and into the southern Appalachians. The atmospheric setup includes an upper low over the Northern Plains with associated troughing extending into the Southwest, allowing for moist southerly flow into the Mid-South. A quasi-stationary boundary extending into the Ohio Valley and detached outflow boundary in the Tennessee Valley will provide a focus for storms to develop and track along. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to become severe and possibly contain very large to giant hail, damaging wind gusts, and some strong tornadoes possible. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe weather between south-central Missouri to Middle Tennessee and south-central Kentucky. Additionally, as storms overlap with saturated soil from earlier rainfall and train behind one another, numerous instances of flash flooding are possible. The greatest risk for flash flooding is across southwestern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee, where a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. By Thursday, the overnight thunderstorm activity is anticipated to sink southward and impact areas from the Southern Plains to the Southeast. Very large hail appears probable across parts of central Texas and into the ArkLaTex region, with a broader region of severe hail and damaging wind potential extending through the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. Areas of flash flooding are also possible along this corridor stretching between eastern Texas and central Georgia. As the associated cold front continues to push south and east on Friday, the scattered thunderstorms threat is expected to linger, but remain confined to the Southeast. A long duration heavy precipitation event is also ongoing throughout the Northern Rockies and parts of the northern High Plains through at least Thursday. The upper low over the Northern Plains continues to funnel moisture into favorable upslope regions of Montana and Wyoming. Heavy snow remains probable into tonight across the higher elevated ranges, with moderate rainfall in the lower elevations. As the upper low weakens and becomes more elongated, precipitation is also expected to weaken while also sliding southward into the central/southern Rockies. Additionally, the well below average temperatures are forecast to remain throughout the Rockies with a warmer trend beginning by the end of the week. Warm weather for the final few days of the workweek can be expected across the Northwest, Southeast, Gulf Coast, and southern Texas. Locations in these regions can anticipate highs around 10 to 15 degrees above average, with a few daily record highs potentially being tied/broken. As far as actual high temperatures go, southern Texas will be by far the hottest with highs into the triple digits and upper 90s. Low-to-mid 90s are forecast across Florida on Thursday, with 80s and 90s throughout the rest of the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest will also need to break out the summer clothing and stay hydrated as highs soar into the 80s by Friday, with low 90s possible in localized interior valley locations from central Californ

Severe thunderstorm and flash flood threat forecast across much of the Midwest, Tennessee and Lower Mississippi valleys, as well as into parts of the Southern Plains over the next few days... ...Heavy snow to impact the Northern Rockies with well below average temperatures throughout much of the Rockies and Intermountain West... ...Triple digit and potentially record-breaking heat over southern Texas on Wednesday and Thursday... A mature and vertically stacked low pressure system over the Northern Plains, along with its attached frontal boundaries, are expected to be the driving force behind much of the impactful weather to affect the Lower 48 over the next few days. This low is expected to begin weakening tonight and slide eastward into the Ohio Valley by Thursday before approaching the Mid-Atlantic by early Friday. As it eventually makes the trek eastward, several chances for severe weather and heavy rain are possible from the Midwest and Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. The threat this evening starts in the Midwest, specifically over Indiana, western and central Ohio, and northern Kentucky. A few storms in this region could produce large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few (some strong) tornadoes. Additionally, isolated flash flooding is possible from downpours associated with the strong thunderstorms. By Wednesday, the severe weather and heavy rain threat is expected to shift southward along a gradually lifting warm front extending from the mid-Mississippi to the Ohio Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rather expansive Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from northeast Texas to far western Virginia, which includes much of the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and middle to lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely in this region, with all modes of severe weather possible. The greatest flash flooding threat also overlaps with the risk of severe thunderstorms, centered over Kentucky and Tennessee as well sections of neighboring states. Residents and visitors are advised to have multiple ways of receiving warnings and never drive across flooded roadways. As the cold front shifts further south on Thursday the active weather will reposition to the Southeast and Gulf Coast States, where additional rounds of scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are possible.

The active spring pattern continues across much of the Plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... ...Severe weather threat Monday afternoon into Monday night from the Central to Southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley, spreading into the Ohio Valley Tuesday... ...Heavy rains and flooding possible across portions of the Northern High Plains and eastern portions of the Central to Southern Plains... ...Elevated to Critical Fire weather conditions across the Southern High Plains... ...Late season heavy snows for the Northern Rockies... ...Much below average temperatures expected across the Great Basin, Central to Northern Rockies, while above average temperatures are forecast across much of the Plains to the east coast... There is no let up in sight for the active Spring time weather pattern across large portions of the nation. The next strong frontal boundary is forecast to push into much of the Plains tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity currently beginning to develop across portions of the Central Plains is expected to continue strengthen and expand across portions of the Central to Southern Plains late this afternoon into Monday night and spread eastward into the Lower Missouri Valley by early Tuesday. There is a moderate to high risk of severe weather across portions of the Central to Southern Plains with large hail, high winds and tornadoes possible. Along with the severe weather threat, heavy rains are also likely across eastern portions of the Central to Southern Plains from from the eastern Dakotas, south through southwest Minnesota, much of Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. Across these areas the expected heavy rains may lead to areas of flash and river flooding. Heavy rains and flooding also possible across portions of the Northern High Plains from eastern Montana into far northeast Wyoming. This next batch of heavy rains will be falling well to the north of portions of Texas that have seen very heavy amounts over the past week. The heavy rain, flooding and severe weather threat will be pushing farther to the east during Tuesday with areas from the Ohio Valley, northward into the Great Lakes having the potential for highly impactful weather. This impactful weather will likely continue across the Ohio Valley region on Wednesday and expand into the Tennessee Valley and Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley as addition heavy rains, severe storms and flooding develop ahead of the next strong system to push into the Mississippi Valley by mid week. No precipitation is expected over the next few days across the Southern High Plains. This along with lower relative humidities and windy conditions will support an elevated to critical fire weather threat over the next several days from southeast Colorado, the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region, south through much of New Mexico and far West to Southwest Texas. Red Flag warnings are currently in effect across these area for the extended period of fire weather danger.

A deep upper low will bring windy and much colder weather across a large portion of the western U.S. as well as heavy mountain snow through the next couple of days. Heavy rain and possibly severe thunderstorms over southern Texas and Mid-Mississippi Valley this evening will taper off as a higher threat of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms quickly emerges over the north-central Plains later on Monday. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain threats will shift east into the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A rapidly intensifying cyclone will bring wind-swept rain across the northern High Plains Monday into Tuesday with wet snow across the high-elevations of the northern Rockies. A rather vigorous and deep upper-level low continues to push farther into the western U.S. bringing windy and much colder weather across a large portion of the region. Heavy wet snow across the higher elevations of the Great Basin and a good portion of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies will expand eastward into the central Rockies by tonight. This system will also bring quite a bit of wind, especially as a potent cold front passes through the Four Corners region to Wyoming this evening, before spreading into the Rockies and much of the High Plains on Monday as a cyclone is forecast to intensify rapidly over the northern High Plains. An additional foot or more of heavy wet snow is expected to accumulate along the Cascades in Oregon, as well as much of the northern and central Rockies through Tuesday. In addition, severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Plains later on Monday ahead of a potent cold front. These thunderstorms will tend to intensify and track toward the north-northeast into the northern Plains and the upper Midwest Monday night where the potent cold front and a warm front collide. Meanwhile, the center of the deep cyclone will then track across the northern Plains with wind-swept rain impacting the northern High Plains on Monday. The cyclone center is forecast to meander over the northern Plains on Tuesday with the threat of heavy rain and high winds continuing across northern/eastern Montana while cold air wrapping around the deep cyclone will support heavy wet snow over the northern Rockies. Meanwhile across the eastern two-thirds of the country, the strong to severe thunderstorms found over southern Texas into the mid-Mississippi Valley are expected to gradually taper off into scattered showers and thunderstorms later tonight as the associated upper-level disturbance weakens. Farther east along the East Coast, some showers and embedded thunderstorms over the Mid-Atlantic as well as a large swath of moderate rainfall over New England are expected to slide off the coast by Monday morning. Meanwhile, the scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms associated with the weakened upper-level disturbance will slide eastward and bring unsettled weather across the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast and up into the Mid-Atlantic states through Tuesday. Also on Tuesday, the Ohio Valley, Midwest, into the Great Lakes will see more widespread showers and possibly severe thunderstorms moving in as the lead frontal systems from the northern Plains cyclone quickly arrive. The cool and dreary weather from the Mid-Atlantic to New England will gradually give way to warmer temperatures. In contrast, much cooler weather will continue to penetrate the western U.S. with the passage of the deep and vigorous upper trough/low along with windy and inclement weather closer to the elongated cyclone. Finally, windy and dry conditions are forecast to raise the danger of wild fires across the southern Rockies through the next few days.

A deep upper low will bring heavy mountain snow and windy conditions across a large portion of the western U.S. through the next couple of days... ...A slight chance of severe thunderstorms across Texas and upper Midwest into Sunday will shift into the central Plains by later on Monday... ...Critical fire danger is forecast for the southern Rockies... A rather vigorous and deep upper-level low currently approaching the West Coast will result in the next wave of active and stormy weather to quickly sweep through the western U.S. and into the Great Plains during the next couple of days. Moderate to heavy rain and high-elevation heavy wet snow are already reaching into the West Coast in earnest, especially across central to northern California. The precipitation will expand quickly inland across the Great Basin and a good portion of the Pacific Northwest through tonight, reaching into the northern Rockies on Sunday, followed by the central Rockies on Monday. This system will bring quite a bit of wind, especially across southern California and Nevada through tonight, from the Four Corners region to Wyoming on Sunday before overspreading much of the High Plains on Monday. Two feet or more of heavy wet snow is expected to accumulate along the Cascades in Oregon, with a foot along the Sierra Nevada, and a foot or more for portions of the northern Cascades, Great Basin, as well as northern and central Rockies through Monday. In addition, severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Plains later on Monday ahead of a potent cold front. Meanwhile, the center of an elongated deep low pressure system is forecast to track across the northern Plains with wind-swept rain impacting the northern High Plains on Monday.

Heavy rain, significant flooding, and severe weather concerns remain across parts of eastern Texas and the southern Plains through the weekend... Heavy mountain snow and gusty winds to enter much of the West, Great Basin, and Rockies over the next few days... Below average temperatures and showers impact the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast into the end of the weekend... Slow-moving thunderstorms containing intense rainfall rates are ongoing this afternoon throughout parts of southeastern Texas just north of the Houston metro area, which are leading to a continuing threat of flash flooding. Ongoing significant to catastrophic flooding throughout parts of eastern Texas from prior heavy rain will only exacerbate the flash, urban, and river flooding threat from additional rainfall into this evening. Newly formed thunderstorms developing off a southern High Plains dryline could lead to isolated to scattered flash flooding across central Texas as well tonight, but the main hazard associated with these storms are forecast to be associated with giant hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. Farther north, a potent cold front exiting the central High Plains and progressing into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Saturday is also expected to spark a line of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain and severe thunderstorms, mainly throughout parts of Kansas and Nebraska. By this weekend, the aforementioned cold front is expected to continue progressing eastward through the Midwest and Ohio Valley. The tail end of of this frontal boundary reaching westward to the southern Plains will be the focus for additional thunderstorm activity and the potential for flash flooding. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for central and north-central Texas on Saturday, with the threat area shifting east on Sunday, extending from eastern Texas to southwest Missouri and far southeast Kansas. Additionally, severe thunderstorms are possible, with the greatest risk anticipated on Saturday in the Permian Basin of West Texas. Several storms may produce large to giant hail and a couple strong tornadoes. An anomalously strong upper-level low entering northern California on Saturday night is forecast to spread moderate to heavy precipitation and gusty winds into the western U.S. and Great Basin this weekend. Heavy mountain snow in the Sierra Nevada and Oregon Cascades is likely to add up to over a foot (mainly above 6000 feet) on Saturday. As the system continues to swing eastward, gusty southerly winds up to 60 to 80s mph are possible in the central Great Basin and the Sierra Nevada, where High Wind Warnings have been issued. The associated precipiation and gusty winds will shift eastward as the upper-level low crosses the Intermountain West on Sunday. Residents and visitors through are advised to check local conditions before traveling, especially throughout exposed elevated roadways. Showers are also expected to dampen the first weekend in May throughout much of the Great Lakes and eastern United States. Most precipitation should remain scattered, with thunderstorm chances in the Southeast, Ohio and Tennessee valleys. A backdoor cold front sinking through the Mid-Atlantic today will allow for additional shower activity and below average temperatures this weekend. Highs are only expected to reach the 50s and 60s as cloud cover and cool air streaming off the Atlantic keep temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below average between the Mid-Atlantic and New England when compared to climatology for the dates.

The active weather pattern to continue across the Central to Southern Plains with potential for additional severe weather, heavy rains and flash flooding... ...Wetter weather pattern for the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, along with cooler weather... ...Strong front to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California this weekend producing widespread heavy precipitation and late season mountain snows... The recent active spring weather pattern across large portions of the central U.S. expected to continue over the next few days. A surface frontal boundary currently stretching from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes and a second front forecast to sink southward from the Central Plains into the Southern Plains will be the focus for the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is possible across portions of the Central to Southern Plains near these fronts, along with heavy rains and localized flash flooding. Flood watches are currently in effect across portions of southern Oklahoma, eastern Texas into northwest Louisiana. Moderate to major river flooding is occurring across these area from recent heavy rains, with additional heavy rain potential possibly exacerbating ongoing flooding conditions. While conditions have been wet across the Central to Southern Plains toward the Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley of late, drier conditions have persisted farther to the east. Some relief from the recent dry weather across the east on tap over the next few days with some much needed rains falling from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Cooler temperatures also expected for the late week and into the weekend across portions of the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Record high temperatures across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley on Thursday will replaced with much cooler temperatures from a combination of cloud cover, rainfall and winds blowing off the still cool western Atlantic. A strong cold front will be pushing inland into the Pacific Northwest late Friday and into northern California on Saturday. This front will be producing some late season heavy precipiation totals across much of northern California, north through the Oregon Cascades, southern Washington Cascades and from the Olympic Range of Washington, southward along the Washington and Oregon coasts. Late season snows are possible through the Oregon and Washington Cascades and the northern to Central Sierra Range with accumulations in excess of a foot possible across the northern Sierra. In addition to the heavy precipitation and late season snows associated with this strong front, temperatures will be much below average across much of the West coast on Saturday with highs 10 to 20 degrees colder than average. These colder than average temperatures are expected to persist through Sunday while also spreading farther inland into the Great Basin and portions of the Southwest.

Severe thunderstorm and flash flooding threat exists across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight before expanding into the Mississippi Valley on Thursday... Critical Fire Weather potential over portions of the Southern High Plains through this evening. Cool and snowy in parts of the Northwest with above average and potentially record breaking temperatures into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday A very active start to May is underway throughout much of the central and southern Plains as scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing this afternoon are forecast to continue into the overnight hours. Low pressure strengthening over the central High Plains and an attached warm front extending through the mid-Mississippi Valley will help draw ample moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, convection forming off a southern High Plains dryline should push eastward across parts of Oklahoma and Texas, with several storms potentially containing very heavy rainfall and training over similar regions. The flash flooding risk is highest across parts of central and eastern Texas through tonight, where a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. Several inches of rain falling over sensitive and previously saturated terrain could lead to numerous flash floods, with a few significant flooding events possible. Additionally, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall extends northward into central Oklahoma and all of north-central Texas, with a separate Slight Risk in effect from north-central Kansas to western Iowa. These regions can also expect scattered thunderstorms containing intense rainfall rates and possible instances of flash flooding through early Thursday. These evening and overnight thunderstorms are also expected to contain damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes from West Texas to south-central Kansas. These regions fall within an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms issued by the Storm Prediction Center. As the low pressure system and attached cold front gradually swings eastward into the Upper Midwest and Mississippi Valley on Thursday, showers and thunderstorms are also expected to expand eastward. Scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are possible between a large area stretching from the Midwest to southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, with the threat becoming more isolated across the Plains and Deep South on Friday. Residents and visitors are reminded to have multiple ways to receive warnings and never drive across flooding roadways. One additional hazard in the central U.S. due to the potent weather system impacting the region will be the increased fire weather concerns over the southern High Plains through this evening. Low relative humidity combined with gusty winds and dry terrain could cause wildfires to develop easily and spread rapidly. Red Flag Warnings are in effect and stretch from eastern New Mexico to southeast Colorado, far west Oklahoma, and the northwest Texas Panhandle. Elsewhere, a weather pattern consisting of upper-level riding over the East and troughing over the Northwest will support cooler weather in the northern Rockies and Northwest with summer-like warmth spreading from parts of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. In addition to the below average temperatures in the Northwest, snow is likely across the high terrain of the northern Rockies through Friday. Meanwhile, the above average warmth throughout the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic could break daily high temperature records on Thursday as highs reach into the upper 80s and low 90s. Cooler in New England

Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall concerns for parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Plains through mid-week... ...Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall now in place for the Ark-La-Tex Thursday... ...Critical Fire Weather potential over portions of the Southern High Plains on Wednesday... ...Cool and snowy in the Northwest; above average conditions continue across much of the Central and Eastern U.S.... Mean ridging over the eastern U.S. with an energetic upper-level trough over the north-central/northwestern U.S. will keep most of the active weather over the next few days over portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday evening as an upper-level wave/surface frontal system over the Central Plains moves to the northeast through the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center through Tuesday evening from central Iowa southwestward through northeastern Kansas for the threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Additional storms further to the southwest along a trailing cold front will lead to a risk for some locally heavy rainfall totals as storm motions stall in tandem with the slowing cold front. Some scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible from southeastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in place. As this system departs to the into the Great Lakes, another upper-level wave approaching from the west over the Rockies will help to reinforce/organize the trailing frontal system over the Central High Plains. This will bring yet another round of showers and thunderstorms across the Plains Wednesday. Severe storms are expected ahead of a dryline over portions of the Central/Southern Plains. A broad Slight Risk is in place for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, with a localized Enhanced Risk over southwest Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma. Dry, windy conditions behind the dryline will also bring a heightened threat of wildfires, with a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the Southern High Plains. Storms are expected to cluster/expand in coverage into the evening hours Wednesday as the frontal system lifts into the Middle Missouri Valley. A southern stream upper-level wave will help lead to a second area of enhanced convective development over portions of southern Oklahoma into much of the eastern half of Texas. In both cases, plentiful moisture and a strong low level jet will help foster locally intense rainfall, with Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall for the threat of scattered flash flooding. Both areas of storms are forecast to continue into the day Thursday with daytime heating bringing the potential for additional development from the Upper-Mississippi Valley south-southwestward through the Lower Missouri Valley and into the Ark-La-Tex. A broad Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for the region, with a targeted Moderate Risk (level 3/4) now in place for the Ark-La-Tex. Wet antecedent conditions due to rainfall from any initial storms followed by the prospects of additional development will continue the threat for flash flooding.

Severe weather threat returns to the northern and central Plains on Tuesday, followed by severe weather and heavy rain/flash flooding threats farther down the central Plains on Wednesday... ...More high-elevation snows expected across the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies for the next couple of days... ...Warmer than average temperatures across the southern tier states to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic but cold and windy across the Northwest... The weather pattern that keeps sending fast-moving disturbances across the western U.S. will continue to form new low pressure systems in quick succession over the mid-section of the country through the next couple of days. The latest low pressure system that brought severe weather and flash flood emergencies over eastern Texas, together with widespread cold rain across the northern U.S., to wet snow near the Canadian border, will weaken as it tracks northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Canada on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the heaviest thunderstorms and severe weather associated with the trailing front had moved off the Louisiana coast. Less intense showers and thunderstorms are expected to push eastward across the Mid-South, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys toward the Appalachians and New England on Tuesday, before becoming more widely scattered along the Eastern Seaboard into Wednesday morning. Snowfall on the order of 6-12 inches are forecast to accumulate over parts of the Cascades and northern Rockies increasing to nearly 2 feet over the higher elevations of Glacier National Park. As the surge of cold air pushes through the Northwest on Tuesday with the leading cold front reaches the northern and central Plains, a couple of low pressure systems are forecast to develop. The low pressure system that will move across the upper Midwest will bring a threat of severe thunderstorms across the northern and central Plains ahead of the trailing cold front on Tuesday. Another low pressure system will develop over the central Plains on Tuesday, this system will bring a higher threat of severe weather and more widespread heavy rain threat farther south into the central Plains later on Wednesday as the system intensifies. Temperature-wise, fast-moving cold upper troughs propagating through the Northwest and Northern Plains/Upper Midwest will keep things cooler than average today. More cold air will push through the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a warming trend will send afternoon temperatures as high as the lower 90s for the next couple of afternoons across the central to southern High Plains. Temperatures will also be well above average along the East Coast on Tuesday followed by a slight cool down on Wednesday as a back-door cold front dips south from New England.

More rounds of excessive rainfall and severe weather expected to push east and southeast toward the Lower Mississippi Valley through tonight into Monday... ...High-elevation snow is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday... ...Warmer than average temperatures spread from Midwest to Mid-Atlantic; colder weather returns to the Northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest with warming trend across the central/southern High Plains... More active and unsettled weather is forecast to continue across the mid-section of the country through the next couple of days as multiple disturbances embedded within a slow-moving upper-level trough traverse the western U.S. toward the Great Plains. The low pressure system responsible for the latest outbreak of strong to severe thunderstorms across the central to southern Plains today will continue to track northeast across the upper Midwest on Monday. Another bout of strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected to impact areas farther east across the ArkLaTex region through tonight as the trailing cold front associated with the low pressure system edges farther to the east. In addition, heavy downpours associated with these storms will result in flooding concerns across the region. By Monday, the highest threat of severe weather and heavy rain will shift farther southeast toward to central Gulf Coast region, mainly over Louisiana, as the front begins to weaken. A lower risk of severe weather and heavy rain will extend farther northeast into the Tennessee Valley on Monday. Meanwhile, widespread cold rain is expected to continue through tonight across the northern Plains, upper Midwest and toward the lower Great Lakes ahead of the low pressure system and the associated warm front, with embedded thunderstorms closer to the center of the low. Temperatures could be cold enough to support wet snow Monday morning across portions of the northern Plains into the upper Midwest. The rain will then shift eastward into the western portion of New England, down across the Ohio Valley toward the Appalachians on Tuesday as the low center moves into southern Canada. On the warm side of the low pressure system, strong southerly flow will bring very warm air northward into the East Coast through the next couple of days with high temperatures climbing well into the 80s and possibly into the lower 90 degrees for the interior Mid-Atlantic. These temperatures will be in contrast to the cool temperatures expected for the Pacific Northwest by Monday as the next upper-level trough from the Pacific is forecast to push inland. This trough will bring widespread high-elevation snow and lower elevation rain across the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies on Monday with increasingly windy conditions as a low pressure system begins to develop over the northern High Plains into southern Canada. By Tuesday, the main front will move fairly quickly across the northern and central Plains, with rapid development of showers and thunderstorms expected across the upper Midwest in the afternoon ahead of a warm front and a low pressure wave. Some thunderstorms may begin to erput across the central Plains into Texas east of a dry line. Farther west, warm downslope winds from the southern Rockies will set a warm trend across the southern High Plains with high temperatures reaching into the 80s and lower 90s by Tuesday afternoon.

More rounds of excessive rainfall and severe weather expected to push eastward across the southern Plains tonight reaching into lower Mississippi Valley on Monday... ...Snow over central Colorado gradually tapers off tonight but high-elevation snow is forecast to spread inland from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies on Monday... ...Critical Fire Weather Risk over portions of the Southern High Plains... ...Warmer than average temperatures spreads from Midwest into Mid-Atlantic on Sunday while well below average temperatures shift from the Four Corners and Rockies into the Northern Plains... More active and unsettled weather is forecast to continue across the mid-section of the country through the remainder of the weekend into Monday. Multiple disturbances embedded within a slow-moving upper-level trough responsible for the active weather are currently developing another low pressure system over the central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to erupt in the warm and unstable air ahead of the low pressure system east of a dry line from northern Texas through central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A moderate risk of severe weather is forecast through tonight per the Storm Prediction Center with the possibility of large hail, damaging winds and multiple tornadoes. In addition to the severe weather, intense rainfall rates are expected to accompany these thunderstorms at times, leading to a moderate to locally high potential of flash flooding to occur in these areas through tonight. By Sunday, the main area of thunderstorms will push farther eastward toward the mid- and lower Mississippi Valley with a slightly lower threat of severe weather. Meanwhile, the heaviest rains should push farther southeast into the ArkLaTex region as the trailing cold front associated with the low pressure system begins to weaken. The center of the low is forecast to track northeast across the central Plains on Sunday, reaching into the upper Midwest on Monday. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms can be expected to extend northeast across these areas including the Midwest ahead of a warm front to the east of the low pressure center. Meanwhile, the threat of heavy rain will push farther southeast into the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley as the cold front pushes eastward. Meanwhile, snow on the backside of the low pressure system is forecast to gradually taper off tonight over central Colorado, and so will the areas of mixed rain/snow extending into the Four-Corners as the system moves farther away into the central Plains. Meanwhile, another low pressure system will begin to move away from the Great Lakes into Canada with scattered showers ending over the upper Great Lakes but continuing from the lower Great Lakes into New England. Strong southerly flow behind a high pressure system will bring very warm air northward into the East Coast through the next couple of days with high temperatures climbing well into the 80s to possibly near 90 degrees for the interior Mid-Atlantic. These temperatures will be in contrast to the cool temperatures expected for the Pacific Northwest by Monday as the next upper-level trough from the Pacific is forecast to push inland. This trough will bring widespread high-elevation snow and lower elevation rain across the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies on Monday with increasingly windy conditions as a low pressure system begins to develop over the northern High Plains into southern Canada. Meanwhile, dry and warm winds sinking down the southern Rockies will continue to keep a critical fire weather risk over the southern High Plains.