The Weather Man Podcast, I talk about weather!

Flash flooding possible for parts of the Upper Midwest, along with severe weather... Burgeoning heat wave for the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and Northeast starting Monday and continuing through the week... Heavy rain and flash flooding possible for the central and northwest Gulf Coast through Tuesday... Late-season wet snow for the northern Rockies Monday and Tuesday... A very active pattern is in store for the Lower 48 this week which will feature a variety of weather hazards: Heavy rain and flash flooding: two areas are noted for the potential for flash flooding/heavy rain along with severe weather. The first over the Upper Midwest as multiple rounds of heavy rain push through the Dakotas into Minnesota, where there is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall (central MN) and a Slight Risk of severe weather (per SPC) on Monday (Nebraska northward to MN). The second will be near the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical moisture will surge northward and westward from southern Louisiana westward into Texas through Tuesday (and into Wednesday), including in and around the Houston metro area. In addition, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for possible future tropical development over the next few days. Rising temperatures over the northeastern 1/4 of the CONUS will approach and exceed record highs (including record warm overnight lows) over the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Northeast Mon/Tue (and beyond). High temperatures will climb well into the 90s for many areas, with upper 90s possible in the lower elevations in the East on Tuesday. Overnight lows may only drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s, offering little relief from the heat. The experimental HeatRisk outlooks shows Major to Extreme levels for many areas, owing to the duration of the upcoming heat wave. This is in stark contrast to the record cool temperatures Sunday morning over parts of the Northeast. Cool and snowy conditions will be impacting parts of the Northern Rockies over the next couple of days as a broader upper trough moves through the West. Temperatures will be well below normal for mid-June, and even near record cold for the date. The snow will be limited to higher elevations in Montana (especially above 7000ft), but accumulating snow is likely even down to 5000ft or so. This heavy and wet snow may cause some tree damage and power outages, and will likely make travel difficult across some of the passes. Hot/dry/breezy conditions over parts of the Southwest will result in a high fire danger over the next day or so, especially over northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and into western New Mexico. Critical fire conditions are forecast for these regions per SPC, with a broader Elevated risk for much of the Four Corners and even into the Sacramento/San Joaquin Valley on Monday.

Multiple rounds of locally heavy rain with the risk for flash flooding, as well as severe thunderstorms, expected in the north-central U.S.... Late-season wet snow for the northern Rockies beginning on Monday... .A heat wave will quickly spread from the Plains Sunday into the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley on Monday A plume of tropical moisture will bring the threat for heavy downpours and flash flooding to the central Gulf Coast... Some severe storms will be possible Saturday evening ahead of the cold front over the northern High Plains where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the threat of very large hail, significant damaging winds, & a few tornadoes. The front will progress southeastward through the day Sunday before stalling out Sunday evening, with the next round of storms expected along an axis from the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the Upper Missouri Valley. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect as clustering of storms with repetitive motions along the stalling front with abundant moisture available will lead to heavy rainfall rates/totals & the risk for flash flooding. A Slight Risk of severe weather is also in place for the threat of some large hail. Lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains ahead of another upper-level wave over the West will bring strengthening southerly flow, with the stalled front expected to begin slowly lifting back to the north as a warm front through the Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) has been introduced as clustering/slow-moving storms along the boundary as well as still abundant moisture & impressive upper-level dynamics will promote more widespread, intense downpours & potentially numerous, significant incidents of flash flooding. This risk will continue into Monday evening/night, just beyond the current forecast period. A Slight Risk for the threat of some large hail & damaging winds is also in place. Another impact from this unseasonably strong series of upper-level systems for mid-June will be much colder air sweeping southward to the west of the cold front, particularly into the northern Rockies. High temperatures will be mostly in the 60s Sunday from the Pacific Northwest east through the northern Great Basin & into the northern Rockies. These cooler temperatures will spread further southward in the Great Basin & into the northern Plains by Monday. Highs for the mountain valleys of the northern Rockies will only be in the 40s & 50s. Precipitation chances will also pick up here Monday, with a Winter Storm Watch in effect for the potential of several inches of snow at higher mountain elevations. While a mostly cold rain is expected at lower elevations, a few of the higher mountain valleys may see some snow mix in. To the south, an impressive flow of moisture from the Caribbean on the western side of the ridge will stream into the central Gulf Coast over the next couple of days.

Scattered severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain possible across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and parts of the Central Plains through this evening... ...Severe weather and flash flood risks shift to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend... ...Above average summer heat continues across much of the Southern Tier before expanding into the Midwest by Sunday... A summer weather pattern ripe for mid-June is expected through this weekend across CONUS, with scattered areas at risk for strong thunderstorms and building heat across the southern and middle sections of the country. After a few days of drenching rain throughout the central and southern Florida Peninsula, lingering showers and storms could spawn scattered instances of renewed flooding across far southern Florida tonight before rain chances diminish this weekend. This same plume of tropical moisture is forecast to slide toward the central Gulf Coast on Sunday and could lead to areas of heavy rain throughout southern Louisiana and Mississippi. Meanwhile, a cold front progressing across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon has led to showers and thunderstorms that could contain intense rainfall rates and gusty winds. A few of these storms could turn severe through this evening as the cold front eventually pushes offshore by early Saturday. Following this cold front, a refreshingly dry airmass in place should lead to beautiful weather this Father's Day weekend throughout the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley. A developing storm system over the north-central U.S. will lead to active and stormy weather extending from the Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. The first round of showers and storms associated with a leading system is forecast to spark thunderstorm activity across the Central High Plains late this afternoon through the overnight period. A few storms could contain large hail, damaging wind gusts, and intense rainfall rates capable of leading to flash flooding. After weakening overnight, these showers could push into the Upper Midwest by Saturday, with redeveloping storms extending from the central Plains to the Middle Missouri Valley. Multiple rounds of heavy rain could lead to areas of flash flooding between eastern Nebraska and northern Wisconsin. Additionally, the trailing and stronger system organizing over the Northern Plains on Saturday will help produce strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern Montana and North Dakota. By the end of the weekend a frontal boundary is expected to bisect the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, creating a focus for additional rounds of showers and storms. The other main weather story this weekend will be the simmering heat impacting areas from the Southwest to the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Highs are forecast to reach the triple digits throughout much of the Desert Southwest, with upper 90s stretching from the Southeast to parts of the Southern Plains. Above average temperatures are also forecast across the central Great Basin and northern Plains ahead of a cold front, with well below average temperatures encompassing the Pacific Northwest. By Sunday, an upper level ridge is anticipated to begin building across the Eastern U.S., with anomalous heat starting in much of the Midwest, Central Plains, and Tennessee Valley. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 90s, with maximum heat indices near 105 degrees. When combined with warm overnight lows, major heat risk could affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Be sure to remain weather aware and follow proper heat safety!

There is a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over parts of southern Florida for tonight... ...There are Severe weather concerns over portions of the Northern/Central High Plains as well as portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Friday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Advisories over Southern California, Southwest, Central Plains, and Southern High Plains... In Florida, ongoing rounds of thunderstorm activity are expected to continue through Friday before subsiding just in time for the weekend. A quasi-stationary surface front and upper trough axis swinging through the Gulf of Mexico/Southeast U.S. will continue focusing tropical moisture across the Florida peninsula over the next couple of days. Intense thunderstorms will occur tonight, when storms will bring several more inches of rainfall, in some cases, over the very saturated and vulnerable soils/surfaces and urban areas of southern Florida. There is now a High Risk (at least 70%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over parts of southern Florida, particularly along the I-75 corridor from Naples to Fort Lauderdale and down to Miami. There remains a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall across the central-southern peninsula through Friday, with a Marginal Risk (at least 5%) in place through Saturday when conditions are likely to improve. A closed mid-level low will degrade into an open shortwave trough while it swings through the Southwest and Rockies this weekend. This shortwave feature will promote thunderstorm activity across the High Plains beginning Friday afternoon and continuing into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) over parts of eastern Colorado, southwestern Nebraska and eastern Kansas. Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible along the Front Range into the Central Plains Friday afternoon/evening. A complex of storms are expected to develop over western Pennsylvania Friday afternoon and propagate into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast that evening. Tonight, convection is expected to flare up along a cold front pushing through the Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis along the front could promote enhanced hourly rainfall rates. Thus, a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for portions of the Midwest, from southeastern Iowa/northeastern Missouri across north-central Illinois and into northwestern Indiana. Totals of around an inch of rain are expected with isolated amounts closer to two inches possible in certain spots. Excessive Heat concerns will wane over the Southwest this weekend as the mid-level disturbance shifts into the Plains along with an upper ridge. The newly developing ridge over the Central U.S. will increase Excessive Heat threats across the eastern half of the country heading into next week.

The threat for Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding continues over central and southern Florida through Friday... ...There's an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over parts of the Southwest, and western Texas... A stationary boundary bisecting the Florida Peninsula will be the focus for thunderstorm activity across much of the state over the next couple of days. A complex of storms slowly moving through south-central Florida late this afternoon and into the early evening will produce heavy to excessive rainfall leading to significant flash flooding. Storms should move into the Keys tonight before reloading for another round of storms on Thursday and Friday. There are Slight Risks (at least 15%) in effect for parts of central/southern Florida with the potential for upgrades over the next couple of days. Digging mid-level energy will support thunderstorm activity across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate somewhere ahead of a cold front propagating through the Upper Midwest Thursday afternoon before moving into the eastern Iowa, northern Illinois/Indiana. Storms should congeal into an MCS and push farther into the Midwest Thursday night. There's an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms in southern Iowa, northwest Illinois and northern Missouri for late Thursday afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. This vort max will shift the convective threat into the interior Northeast on Friday afternoon and evening, where scattered storms with severe wind gusts will be possible. The upper low that has been spinning just off the coast of southern/Baja California will move into the Western U.S. on Thursday before influencing more thunderstorm activity over parts of the Central Plains this Friday. Storms are forecast to initiate on the lee side of the Central Rockies on Friday afternoon and propagate eastward into the Central Plains that evening. An upper-level ridge over the West will degrade and shift eastward as the closed low move into the region over the next 24 hours. Temperatures will moderate a bit, particularly over the Four Corners as well as California's central valley, where Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches will come to an end tonight. Anomalous temps should shift into the Northwest and northern tier late this week beneath the ridge. In the meantime, Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories remain in effect across parts of the Southwest into western Texas.

...A prolonged heavy to Excessive Rainfall event will continue across southern Florida through the end of the work week... ...Severe Storms possible over parts of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through mid-week... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over Northern/Central California, Southwest, and western Texas on Tuesday... Shortwave energy responsible for this afternoon/evening's thunderstorm activity over parts of south-central Texas, where a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect, will go on to reinforce heavy rainfall across southern Florida this week. The severe threat in Texas will be related to a MCS that will propagate into a moist and unstable environment this afternoon/early evening. The main threat from this cluster of storms will be a severe-wind risk. Mid-level energy cycling through the southern periphery of a parent low will influence severe thunderstorm potential across the Upper Midwest on Wednesday afternoon/early evening and then another chance over parts of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Slight Risks of Severe Thunderstorms are in effect for those areas, with large hail and severe gusts possible. A few tornadoes may occur over the Upper Midwest tomorrow in addition to the hail and winds. Meanwhile, a quasi stationary surface front with emerging and retrograding shortwave energy aloft will support a prolonged heavy to excessive rainfall event across southern Florida for the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms will occur across other parts of the state to a lesser extent. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding are in effect for southern Florida through the end of the work week, where we are forecasting well over 7 inches of rain. Elsewhere, upper ridging will build over the Southwest while a mid-level low moves into southern California. This will support strong southerly flow leading to anomalously mild temperatures across much of the West over the next few days. Temperatures in the 90s to 100s will be between 15-25 degrees above average, particularly across parts of the Great Basin, and Intermountain West. There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches in effect for parts of California's Central Valley, the Southwest and western Texas. Little to no overnight relief, as far as temperatures go, will lead to potential impacts to those without adequate cooling/hydration. Below average temperatures across the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys will moderate as we head into late week.

A very stormy and wet week is in store for the Florida Peninsula as a steady plume of rich, tropical moisture from the western Caribbean begins to overspread the area ahead of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped just to the north. Multiple rounds of intense downpour producing storms (rain rates of 2"+ per hour) are expected not only through the current forecast period (Wednesday evening), but are likely to continue into the weekend. Slight Risks (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall are in effect both Tuesday and Wednesday for the threat of flash flooding, particularly for urban areas, and a higher threat level may be necessary if confidence in day-to-day storm locations increases. While antecedent conditions are dry in the region, the threat outside urban areas may also increase with each day as the heavy rainfall begins to lead to wetter soils more susceptible to flooding. Further west, additional storms are expected along the boundary along the immediate Gulf Coast and into portions of Texas the next couple of days. While the available moisture will not be as high and rain rates/totals are not forecast to be as heavy as further east, there will still be an isolated risk of flash flooding, most likely over central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has also included a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 2/5) over the Edwards Plateau Tuesday where some of the more intense storms could produce some large hail and damaging winds. Showers and thunderstorms continue ahead of a frontal system passing through the northern/central Plains this evening. The system will lift northeastward into the Upper Midwest Tuesday with some showers and storms expected, though totals will likely remain light to moderate as storm coverage/intensity decreases. Another system will approach and move into the Pacific Northwest early Tuesday and pass through the northern Rockies by Wednesday, though little to no precipitation is expected across the region. As the system enters the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by Wednesday afternoon, better moisture streaming northward will bring a greater chance of thunderstorms. The SPC has included a Slight Risk over portions of the Upper Midwest for the threat of very large hail and damaging winds. Much of the West will remain well-above average this week as an upper-level high begins to build in over the Southwest and northern Mexico. The greatest threat from the heat will stretch from the central California valleys into portions of southern Nevada/Arizona Tuesday before expanding even further east into southern New Mexico and far west Texas by Wednesday. Here, heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as temperatures soar well into the 100s and nighttime lows in the 70s and low 80s provide little relief. The risk from the heat is characterized as 'Major' (level 3/4) which considers impacts that will be felt by the entire population that are without effective cooling or adequate hydration, not just those individuals more sensitive to heat. Much above average temperatures will also spread into portions of the north-central U.S. by Wednesday, with many highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s from the central/northern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, temperatures will begin to warm-up and return closer to normal over the next couple of days for much of the Interior Northeast/Ohio Valley following many highs in the 60s Monday. Most of the eastern/southern U.S. will be near average with highs in the 70s/80s for the Northeast, 80s in the Mid-Atlantic, and 80s and 90s from the Southern Plains into the Southeast.

Thunderstorms to be most active across the High Plains into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Southeast... ...Hot weather to begin returning to parts of the West early this week... The same cold front that was associated with severe thunderstorms and areas of flash flooding from eastern Colorado into southern Missouri on Saturday will continue to slowly move south through Monday night before stalling near the Gulf Coast. Low level convergence near the front and a region of anomalous moisture extending from the Southeast into the southern Plains and northward into the northern High Plains will help support numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. A few of the storms will be capable of becoming severe and/or producing flash flooding as highlighted by Marginal and Slight Risks of severe thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall generated by the Storm Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center. Temperatures will be pleasantly cool north of the front, with high temperature departures expected to be 10-20 degrees below average across the southern High Plains and Great Lakes region on Monday. Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday but remain below average from Texas/Oklahoma into the middle Mississippi Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. Cloud cover from scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will help to keep temperatures down for parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast today, but a drier trend is likely through Tuesday for these areas. An upper level trough across the western U.S. will be preceded by a weak cold front at the surface which will move eastward through Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms will be possible from eastern Wyoming into adjacent portions of South Dakota and western Nebraska on Monday as the cold front moves into the Great Plains. The cold front will not make much southern progress across the western U.S. however, and a shift toward zonal flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will be accompanied by warming temperatures through mid-week for the West. High temperatures are expected to reach dangerously hot levels for portions of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valley in California as well as southern Nevada into southern Arizona. Excessive Heat Watches have been posted for these regions in anticipation of the expanding heat early this week with forecast departures ranging from 10 to 20 degrees above average on Tuesday.

.Dual threats of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding this evening through Saturday night across the central High Plains into the southern Missouri... ...Temperatures will be above average for the West and Southeast while it will be cooler than average from the central Plains into portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast through Monday... Higher end threats for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will exist this evening into early Sunday morning across the central U.S. Anomalous moisture is already in place from the central High Plains region, eastward across Kansas into southern Missouri near a cold front in the region. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over eastern portions of Colorado and southern Missouri through the remainder of the evening and favorable wind shear will support severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of severe thunderstorms extending from eastern Colorado into western Kansas through Sunday morning, while a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of flash flooding is in place by the Weather Prediction Center over southern Missouri. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will favor the potential for several inches of rain through Sunday morning. The cold front over the central U.S. is expected to continue advancing south into the southern Plains and east into the southern Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures to the central U.S. Forecast high temperatures on Monday are expected to be about 20 degrees colder compared to the expected high temperatures for today. Cooler than average temperatures are also expected for the Great Lakes region where reinforcing cold fronts will move through the region through Monday in addition to showers and thunderstorms. Across the western and southeastern U.S., warmer than average high temperatures are in the forecast through Monday, although a break is coming from some of the excessive heat experienced over the past few days across California, the Desert Southwest and Texas. A cold front will move through the West over the next couple of days which will bring some relief from the high temperatures along with an increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms (hail and wind) is forecast by the Storm Prediction Center over portions of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming for Sunday ahead of an upper level trough which will help to drive the cold front inland.

Threats for severe weather and flash flooding for portions of the Central Plains into the middle/lower Missouri River Valley through Saturday... ...Excessive heat over the West and Southwest through Saturday but some relief coming on Sunday... Most of the active weather across the lower 48 will focus across the central portion of the nation through the weekend in the form of severe thunderstorms and potential for flash flooding. Anomalous moisture will pool in the vicinity of a pair of frontal boundaries located over the Central Plains this evening. Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through this evening near a stationary front currently in place across Nebraska, with threats for large hail and damaging straight line winds in addition to tornadoes. An organized thunderstorm complex is likely to form tonight and translate toward the southeast toward the lower Missouri Valley, carrying a risk for flash flooding with high rainfall rates and possibly 4-5 inches of rain by Saturday morning. Severe weather (mainly hail and wind) and flash flood potential will focus a little farther south on Saturday as a cold front moves through the central Plains. The threat region will extend from the central High Plains, through southern KS into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Spotty rainfall totals in excess of 3 inches will be possible in addition to the severe thunderstorms. Out West, an upper level ridge in place over the western U.S. will maintain the hot weather on Saturday that has been impacting the region over the past couple of days. However, the upper level ridge will be displaced and weakened with the approach of an upstream trough axis and associated surface cold front. The cold front is forecast to arrive early on Sunday and advance south and east during the day which will lower the magnitude of hot weather. Temperatures however, are still likely to remain up to roughly 10 degrees above average on Sunday. Across the Great Lakes region into the Northeast, temperatures will run 5 to 15 degrees below average beneath the influence of upper level troughing this weekend. The region will remain unsettled however, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms beneath the upper trough and with a surface low/cold front tracking eastward through Sunday. East of the Appalachians, from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast, high pressure will keep temperatures near to slightly above average for the weekend but with little to no chances for precipitation. The one exception will be across the Florida Peninsula where high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s may challenge a few daily maximum temperature records on Saturday and Sunday. In addition, diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected each day but with a focus across southern Florida where access to better moisture will reside.

Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect across the California's Central Valley and much of the Desert Southwest... ...A couple rounds of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall possible across portions of the Central Plains toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley Friday and Saturday... A strong upper-level ridge associated with the ongoing heat wave over the Southwest is forecast to reach its peak intensity today (Thursday) before sliding off slowly toward the southern Plains during the next couple of days. Widespread high and low temperature records being tied or broken between California Nevada and Arizona today will expand a bit northward into Oregon and Washington on Friday and Saturday. Highs in the 90s and 100s followed by lows ranging from the upper 50s to mid 70s will lower by a couple of degrees each day. HeatRisk will peak between Major and Extreme today for much of the West, with California's Central Valley and the Desert Southwest being of particular concern due to their lower elevations and some urban areas. Little to no overnight relief from the heat will affect those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Mid-level energy propagating through the Florida peninsula will support scattered thunderstorms that may become severe this evening. Meanwhile, a couple days of Major to Extreme Heat Risk, particularly over urban areas are forecast for the southern half of the peninsula. Several high and low temperature records may be tied or broken on Friday and Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front moving across the East Coast today. Locally heavy rainfall may occur over portions of the Interior Northeast and southern New England into the evening. Things mostly clear out across the East Coast on Friday, save for parts of northern/central New England where some light showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible. A lingering upper-level low will keep temperatures cooler than normal across the northern tier states along with windy conditions into the weekend. The associated instability will also support occasional showers across the Great Lakes for the next couple of days. We shift our attention to the Central U.S. on Friday as a low pressure system emerges from the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Central Plains and move generally east toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley as organized clusters of thunderstorms that day. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms across south-central Nebraska into northern Kansas due to the potential of damaging wind gusts and some hail. Excessive Rainfall will be more likely farther downstream from eastern Kansas into western Missouri. By Saturday, the thunderstorms and heavy rain are expected to push farther southeast toward the mid-Mississippi Valley when colder air from the northern Plains begins to edge southward. The best chance for these storms to develop will be from Friday afternoon into the evening from eastern Oklahoma to northern Arkansas and southern Missouri.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to move through the eastern U.S. for the next couple of days with locally heavy to excessive rainfall possible over the central Appalachians through tonight... Over the next couple of days, a shift in the weather pattern will continue to push the active weather across the eastern U.S. This shift in the weather pattern will also sustain a heatwave across the southwestern U.S. High temperatures well up into the 100s this afternoon across the Central Valley of California could soar a couple degrees higher Thursday afternoon. The Desert Southwest will likely see temperatures soaring into the 110s Thursday afternoon, with Las Vegas' high temperature challenging/reaching its earliest 112 degrees on record. Widespread high and low temperature records may be tied or broken through Friday. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for California's Central Valley as well as much of the Desert Southwest including southeastern California, southern Nevada and western/southern Arizona. Record warm low temperatures at night will not offer much chance to cool off either. The heat is forecast to expand northward across the Great Basin and into the interior Pacific Northwest on Friday with highs reaching well up into the 90s. Meanwhile, the heat across southern Texas is forecast to become less intense over the next couple of days. Much cooler, damp, and windy conditions will gradually spread from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes through the next couple of days behind the cold front trailing south from a deep low pressure system over southern Canada. The system will push steadily eastward, providing a break in the active weather over the mid-section of the country while spreading showers and embedded thunderstorms across the Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and down toward the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. The inclement weather will reach into much of the East Coast on Thursday as the cold front continues its eastward progress. There appears to be a greater chance for New England to see some locally heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms later on Thursday as a warm front lifting northward meets the eastward-advancing cold front. More rounds of showers are expected for the interior Northeast on Friday as addition energy rotates across the Great Lakes toward New England. By later on Friday, a low pressure system will be organizing over the central Plains with support from upper-level energy ejecting eastward from the central Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop and expand ahead of the system over the central Plains by Friday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will also develop over the central Rockie

Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain possible from the lower Mississippi Valley across the south-central Plains and through the upper Midwest through tonight... ...Growing Excessive Heat concerns over portions of California's central valley region as well as the Desert Southwest with Heat Risk persisting over southern Texas... Over the next couple of days, a shift in the weather pattern will gradually push the active weather that has been persisting over the mid-section of the country toward the eastern U.S. This shift in the weather pattern will also bring a heatwave into the western U.S. A low pressure system currently advancing across the northern Plains has prompted High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. This system will act as a catalyst for the weather pattern change as the trailing front marches across the country through the next couple of days. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be most active ahead of the cold front across the Midwest and farther south where it meets a low pressure wave over Oklahoma, where the chance of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will be the highest through tonight. By Wednesday, the system will push steadily eastward, ending much of the active weather over the mid-section of the country while bringing widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms across the Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and down toward the lower Mississippi Valley. The inclement weather will reach into much of the East Coast on Thursday as a cold front continues its eastward progress. There appears to be a greater chance for New England to see stronger thunderstorms later on Thursday as a warm front lifting northward meets the eastward-advancing cold front. Much cooler, damp, and windy conditions will gradually spread from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes through the next couple of days behind the cold front and a deep low pressure system over southern Canada. On the opposite side of the country, a heatwave is in store for the southwestern portion of the country as a strong ridge of high pressure intensifies and takes control. Areas of particular concern for the heat include the low elevation regions of California's central valley, where high temperatures will likely climb well up into the 100s at the hottest location while 110s will be common over the interior desert region including Las Vegas, NV especially by Thursday afternoon. There is a good chance for the temperature to top 112 degrees in Las Vegas on Thursday, which would become the city's earliest observed 112 degrees on record. Widespread temperature records are also expected to be tied or broken elsewhere across much of the aforementioned areas. Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches extend from the central valley down through southern California's deserts, southern Nevada and southern/western Arizona. Heat Risk will peak over California's central valley on Wednesday before expanding into the Desert Southwest later this week. Little overnight relief will make for dangerous conditions for those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Meanwhile, Heat Risk over southern Texas peaks today but is expected to persist for the next few days.

On Tuesday, a reinforcing cold front will move out of the Northern Rockies and merge with the front over the Mississippi Valley, producing showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain over the Upper/Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Wednesday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease slightly over the Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Lower Mississippi Valley, Southern Plains, Central/Southern Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over the region on Wednesday. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Also, on Wednesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms will end. However, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the eastern third of the lower forty-eight states. Meanwhile, on Monday, rain and snow melt will produce heavy runoff over parts of the Northwest and Northern Intermountain Region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. In addition, early Tuesday, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest and inland to the Northern Intermountain Region and weaken by Wednesday. The system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain Region. Furthermore, a developing upper-level ridging will build over California and continue over southern/western Texas, aiding in spawning Excessive Heat Warnings, Excessive Heat Watches, and Heat Advisories over Central/Southern California and western/southern Texas and Central California. Moreover, the ridging will create the first round of dangerous heat this season. The hottest temperatures so far for the West will build in California and the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the heat will create record-breaking daily high temperatures for portions of California�s Central Valley. Be sure to break your heat exposure by avoiding outdoor time at the hottest times of the day. Check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours.

On Monday, the threat of severe thunderstorms moves east of the dryline as upper-level energy moves over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley from Monday through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, the energy that produces the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains from Monday through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms will decrease slightly over the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains. Therefore, there will be a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over the area. However, the threat of excessive rainfall will continue over the Upper/Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, onshore flow and a steady stream of upper-level energy over the Pacific Northwest will trigger rain and snow melt over parts of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Intermountain Region from Sunday into Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Pacific Northwest through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Additionally, the heavy rain and snow melt will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Moreover, heavy rain and snow melt will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region on Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region from Monday into Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Furthermore, a developing upper-level ridging will build over California and continue over southern/western Texas, aiding in spawning Heat Advisories over western/southern Texas and Central California.

On Sunday, a cold front extending from the Northern Plains to the Great Basin will move eastward to the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley by Monday, producing showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central High Plains from Sunday through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is a threat of severe thunderstorm wind gust, of 65 knots or greater. Moreover, a second area of severe thunderstorms will also occur over the Southern High Plains on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains from Sunday through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain over the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Monday, the threat of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall will decrease slightly over the Middle/Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, there will be a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall over the area. Meanwhile, onshore flow and a steady stream of upper-level energy over the Pacific Northwest will trigger rain and snow melt over parts of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Intermountain Region from early Saturday into Monday. On Sunday the rainfall will increase, therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Pacific Northwest from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Additionally, the heavy rain and snow melt will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Moreover, on Monday, the rain and snow melt will produce heavy rain over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region on Monday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Furthermore, a developing upper-level ridging over southern Texas will aid in spawning Heat Advisories over Western Texas.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday, over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains on Saturday, and Northern/Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday, Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast/Southeast on Saturday, and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains on Sunday... ...There are Heat Advisories over southern Texas... Moisture streaming northward over the Plains and a dryline over western Texas will aid in creating showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central/Southern High Plains through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. A second area of showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. A third area of showers and severe thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Saturday, the same set-up over the Southern Plains, moisture streaming northward over the Plains, and a dryline over western Texas will create showers and severe thunderstorms over the region. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central/Southern High Plains from Saturday through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains on Thursday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains and Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday and over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains on Saturday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday/Friday and Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast on Saturday... ...There are Heat Advisories over southern Texas... A front extending from the Northern Plains to the Southern High Plains will slowly move to the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Southern High Plains and stall by Friday evening, then dissipating on Saturday. Moisture streaming northward over the Plains and a dryline over western Texas will aid in creating showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there will be an added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the Southern High Plains. In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains and Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains and Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Friday, the front over the Central/Southern High Plains will create showers and severe thunderstorms over the region. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central/Southern High Plains from Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Additionally, a second area of severe thunderstorms will occur over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley from Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will also create heavy rain from the moisture stream northward from the Western Gulf of Mexico over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Friday through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

More active weather across the mid sections of the nation, with additional rounds of thunderstorms, heavy rains, flash flooding and severe weather... ...Heat to continue across Southwest to South Texas and much of Florida, while building across the inland valleys of California... ...Cooler than average temperatures for the Plains and large portions of the eastern U.S... No let up to the recent very active weather pattern across the mid section of the nation over the next few days. Heavy rains, flash flooding and severe weather that has been focusing across the Southern Plains over the past two days will be re-focusing farther to the north Wednesday evening across the Northern to Central High Plains ahead of a strong cold front pushing eastward across this area. This thunderstorm activity has the potential to produce severe weather, heavy rains and isolated flash flooding overnight into early Thursday across the Northern to Central High Plains as the thunderstorms push eastward. By late Thursday afternoon, strong southern stream mid to upper level disturbances are expected to push into the Southern Plains, initiating another round of active and potentially impactful thunderstorms. Additional heavy rains, flash flooding and severe weather are possible across a large portion of the Southern Plains from North Texas, across much of Oklahoma, Kansas, southern Nebraska and eastern Colorado. No big changes expected to the recent heat across Southwest to South Texas and across much of Florida, with much above average temperatures expected to persist across these regions over the next few days. There will continue to be the potential for record high afternoon temperatures across portions of central to Southwest Florida Thursday and Friday along with record high morning low temperatures across the Florida Keys Thursday and Friday mornings. Hot temperatures also expected to be expanding across the interior valleys of California over the next two days with high temperatures reaching the middle to upper 90s. These temperatures, however, will remain below record values for these dates. In contrast to the above mentioned hot temperatures, cooler than average temperatures are forecast across much of the Plains due to the ongoing wet weather and cloud cover. Cooler than average temperatures are also expected to persist large portions of the eastern U.S. from the Lower Lakes, through the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

.Active central U.S. weather pattern to continue. Heavy rains, flash flooding and severe weather possible... ...Heat continues across southern Texas and much of Florida. Hot temps begin to build in the interior California Valleys... ...Cooler than average temperatures expected across the mid section of the nation and much of the East.. The very active and highly impactful late spring weather pattern will continue across the central U.S. over the next several days. Initially activity will concentrate across portions of the Southern Plains from Oklahoma into Texas from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, where there will be potential for thunderstorms to produce heavy rains, localized flash flooding and severe weather. By late Wednesday into Thursday, a strong frontal boundary will be pushing eastward into the Northern to Central High Plains. This will help focus the next round of active weather farther to the north as thunderstorms blossom Wednesday afternoon across eastern Montana, eastern Wyoming and northeast Colorado and then push east into the Northern to Central High Plains. Severe weather, heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will be possible across these areas. The focus for the next round of impactful thunderstorms on Thursday will then be shifting back to the south across portions of the Central and Southern Plains across eastern Nebraska, much of Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas. Additional heavy rains, flash flooding and severe thunderstorms will be possible across these areas as well. The active central U.S. weather pattern will keep temperatures below average over the next few days due to the clouds and rainfall. Hot temperatures, however, look like they will continue across southern Texas and across large portions of Florida. Record high afternoon temperatures and record high morning low temperatures are possible across portions of South and Southwest Florida over the next two days. Record high morning lows also possible across portions of South and coastal Texas Wednesday and Thursday morning. Heat will also be increasing by mid to late week in the interior valleys of California. However, temperatures are expected to remain below record high values. A broad mid to upper level trough centered from eastern Canada, south through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast will support below average temperatures mid to late week across large portions of the East. Widespread scattered afternoon showers are possible Tuesday from the Lower Lake into the Ohio Valley and on Wednesday across the Central Appalachians into portions of the Mid-Atlantic.