Stansberry Investor Hour

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by the founder and president of Chisholm Exploration, Cactus Schroeder. Cactus kicks off the conversation by describing the current economics of the oil industry, why rig counts are deceptive, what's happening with the Haynesville Shale and Marcellus Shale, and the upside in natural gas. He also explains why the Barnett Shale has become so attractive, how Chisholm Exploration differs from the oil majors, and how these larger companies essentially control the price of oil. (4:18) Next, Cactus discusses why his company prefers oil to natural gas, earthquakes as a side effect of drilling, and how the Biden administration has been hampering exploration and pipeline development. He also details his experience in the Eastern Shelf region, including both good and bad wells and royalty interests. (21:52) Lastly, Cactus covers the oil major he finds the most interesting today, the green-energy movement, and what's on the horizon for oil. He brings up Saudi Arabia cutting oil production in an effort to make prices reach $100 per barrel, the consequences of the war in Gaza, and the ongoing fight between land ownership and mineral rights in different states. (31:03) Dan and Corey close things out by discussing the consequences of the Drug Enforcement Administration moving to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug. They analyze what has been happening with cannabis stocks since the announcement and the tax implications behind the move. Plus, they talk about Starbucks' recent disappointing earnings report and what weight-loss drugs becoming more available could mean for the economy and certain stocks. (53:32)

David Trainer, the founder and CEO of New Constructs, joins the show. He kicks off the conversation by describing how his company takes value investing to the next level with AI. He explains that the days of buying stocks and holding them forever are gone. Today's investing landscape requires investors to be more agile, and AI helps with this. David specifically mentions how he uses AI to sort through millions of financial filings, footnotes, and data points to give him an edge and produce better results. However, he warns that AI is only as good as the data that goes into it. (3:49) Then, David talks in depth about how humans are still involved in the investing process, including making decisions when the AI is unsure how to interpret certain findings. He breaks down how New Constructs' technology is giving clients a competitive advantage and augmenting the rest of their strategy. Plus, David discusses the importance of using both technicals and fundamentals when investing, and he shares why expectations matter so much to valuation. (14:34) Lastly, David names the two sectors he finds most attractive and two that folks should avoid. This segues into a conversation about a recent pump-and-dump scheme used to take advantage of retail investors, why the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission doesn't take action even when it should, and the damage done by years of low interest rates. (33:35) Dan and Corey close things out by discussing inflation and the hotter-than-expected numbers for the personal consumption expenditures index. They cover unrealistic investor expectations for rate cuts, the government's misplaced priorities, and the very real consequences of this persistent inflation on workers and small businesses. (51:20)

David Daglio, the chief investment officer and global investment strategist of wealth- advisory firm TwinFocus, joins the show. He kicks things off by describing himself as a contrarian, and he explains that understanding who you are as a person will lead to the best investing results. After, he goes into detail on how TwinFocus looks for creative "straw hat" solutions that the market isn't seeing. Plus, he talks about risk premiums, the current opportunity in natural gas, and the 30-year discount in gold-mining stocks. (3:29) Next, David discusses the advantages and disadvantages of working at a large firm versus being an individual investor. He shares that individual investors have the advantage of not being overloaded with information, plus they're their own boss and can make their own decisions. David also details the three conditions TwinFocus looks for before jumping into an investment, the importance of recognizing your own intellectual biases, and how market skepticism can be a huge opportunity. (15:29) Lastly, David talks about "net-net" companies in the biotech sector that are trading for less than their total assets... he breaks down what capital imbalance is and how to spot it... and he explains that the savviest investors try to be like Spock from Star Trek, valuing facts over feelings. (28:49) Dan and Corey close out the podcast by discussing the Stansberry Research editorial meeting that happened last week. This meeting brings Stansberry's editors and analysts together to discuss different investing ideas and pertinent world news. One of the hot topics at the meeting was the presidential election in November. Dan and Corey emphasize that the best investors keep politics out of their investing decisions and stick to their core strategy regardless of which candidate takes office. (49:22)

Gary Mishuris of Silver Ring Value Partners talks about today's market being one of the most challenging periods for bottom-up investing since 2007. In terms of the quality of a business versus its stock price, there isn't a lot of opportunity right now. But he emphasizes that transparency and candor with clients is essential, as is prioritizing the long-term process over short-term performance. (5:19) Next, Gary describes what sets Silver Ring Value apart from other fund managers. He shares why he left the "sausage factory" of larger firms behind, how his firm makes money for clients rather than off of clients, and how his unique temperament and behavioral models allow him to make better investing decisions. (14:38) Gary also goes into detail on the psychology behind investing and compares it with a game of poker. He talks about trying to avoid making mistakes, continuously learning from past errors, the importance of having guardrails in place, and cutting your losses. (21:44) Then, Gary explains why you should never be ashamed to change your mind, even when you haven't received any new information. It's OK to reanalyze the same set of facts and admit that you were wrong, and he cites several examples of investors who have learned and grown from their past mistakes. (31:21) Lastly, Dan and Corey discuss the consumer price index and gold. Inflation came in hotter than expected, while gold has broken out to new highs. Dan and Corey speculate on how long gold's bull run can last. Plus, they detail gold being a good hedge for retirement against the government's money-printing addiction. (48:18)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing inflation staying persistently higher, rampant government spending and money-printing, and the repercussions of the Federal Reserve's decade-plus of low interest rates. (0:41) Next, Cambria Investment Management's Meb Faber joins the conversation to talk about the exchange-traded funds ("ETFs") at Cambria and why the team focuses on shareholder yield when picking stocks for these ETFs. He breaks down the importance of shareholder yield in mega-bubble markets like today's and urges investors to pay more attention to it. (24:25) Meb then discusses managing risk on a portfolio level, including focusing on quality and value. He also covers why emerging and foreign markets are so attractive today, the opportunity in fixed-income investments like bonds and Treasury bills, and how higher interest rates have changed the game. (38:21) Finally, Meb describes himself as a value investor and shares which areas of the economy he's most concerned about. He talks about inflation driving commodities sharply higher, gold hitting new highs, and why investing at all-time highs can still be a smart choice. (56:43)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by reviewing the most recent PCE number, what's happening with inflation, and the current state of the economy. (0:41) Next, real estate expert and entrepreneur George Gammon joins the conversation and explains how he became a self-described "macro addict" without any formal education in the world of finance or economics. Plus, he discusses why he considers himself a libertarian and why most investors and billionaires would fall into this category, even if they don't self- identify as such. (21:59) Further, George describes how his investment style is influenced by being a libertarian. By default, his view is that the government is always going to do the wrong thing, resulting in unintended, net-negative consequences. George also goes into detail on the similarities between value investing and trend following. He argues that successful value investors are always looking for a catalyst so that they can catch the trend at its very beginning stages, while stereotypical investors are happy to catch the middle portion of the trend. (34:16) Lastly, George explores the biggest differences between retail investors and professional investors. He details the strategy that the best hedge-fund managers use: starting with a macro view and then looking at the fundamentals and the narrative later. George emphasizes that these experts spend most of their time deciding how to position themselves and using asymmetry to stack the odds in their favor like in a game of blackjack. (46:32)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by arguing against the Federal Reserve potentially cutting rates this year. They point out that inflation is persistently volatile, gas prices are soaring and hurting everyday consumers, and the Fed is "pretending that everything is OK," according to Corey. Dan also brings up the fact that 2024 being an election year may have something to do with this. (0:43) Next, Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet joins the conversation to discuss the biotech industry. He explains that he doesn't see biotech as a sector, and rather he looks bottom up at biotech companies to find a drug that will have a macroeconomic effect. Because only 6% of drugs that start a Phase I trial succeed, he says being selective is crucial. Dave also describes the three phases of drug testing and the importance of efficacy and safety data. (17:55) After, Dave talks all things weight-loss drugs. He reflects on how he knew Ozempic was going to be a blockbuster drug from his boots-on-the-ground research, the incredible room for growth in this area, and the unprecedented amounts of money that biotech companies are spending on factories to develop these weight-loss drugs. (24:36) Further, Dave discusses why the obesity epidemic has worsened over the decades and how exactly weight-loss drugs work to increase metabolism and suppress appetite. It involves something he calls the "winter switch." Plus, Dave brings up the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approving these drugs for the purpose of reducing strokes and heart attacks by nearly 20%. (32:40) Lastly, Dave talks about the widespread economic implications behind weight-loss drugs and other areas of the market that could be impacted, such as the airline industry. However, Dave emphasizes once again that any mass changes are still years away due to supply constraints. (41:20)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing both bubbles and "anti-bubble" stocks. Dan mentions how the S&P 500 Index's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, with data going back to 1871, is currently in the top 1%. He even believes this is the biggest mega- bubble in all of recorded history. (0:41) Next, Porter & Co. analyst Erez Kalir joins the conversation and shares his financial philosophy. He talks about investing legends who have influenced his investing style, the importance of avoiding labels, and how successful investing is similar to using a Swiss Army knife. Plus, Erez explains the yin and yang of macroeconomics versus security-specific fundamentals and how there are extreme periods where one can entirely dominate the other. (13:00) After, Erez goes into detail about biotech – the sector's history in the stock market, how it's shaped by interest rates, and how you can find companies trading at an extreme discount with negative enterprise value. He argues that not being able to time the markets is merely a myth, and he shares the seven factors he uses to evaluate whether a biotech stock is worth buying. (21:59) Lastly, Erez explains why the conditions are right for biotech stocks today. He covers the sector being hated and how this gives savvy investors a chance to break away from the herd and profit. (38:36)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing famed economist Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini and his current bullish stance. They explore whether Dr. Doom is correct in his optimism, if gold's new all-time highs are here to stay, and what could happen next with bitcoin. (0:41) Next, Stansberry Research editor Brett Eversole joins the conversation and talks about where he thinks stocks will go this year thanks to the election. After, he analyzes the overall health of the market using several different metrics, urges investors to invest based on the size of a company's market capitalization, gives his thoughts on whether small-cap stocks can catch up to the rest of the market, and reviews moments of extreme volatility in history. (16:49) Further, Brett describes a shareholder yield fund and how it works. He points out that if you buy companies that return a lot of cash to shareholders, those companies tend to go up a lot over time. He also discusses the strategies he uses in his True Wealth publication to find winning stocks, buy in at the right time, and protect capital. (29:35) Finally, Brett explains why he isn't investing in individual Chinese stocks today, but he provides one unique way to still profit from China that you may have never heard of. (47:15

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing Warren Buffett's recent letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. In it, he honored his late colleague and friend Charlie Munger, plus gave updates on some of Berkshire's businesses. Dan and Corey also cover Apple switching its resources over from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence. (0:41) Next, Rick Rule – president and CEO of Rule Investment Media – joins the conversation. He goes into depth on models, such as the discounted cash flow model. He talks about the flaws with models, why models are only useful for apples-to-apples comparisons, and how a model can be used on exploration companies or similar companies that don't have revenues. (24:32) After, Rick goes into detail on the uranium market. He describes why uranium companies have mothballed production, what makes uranium so unique in the natural resources world, the differences between the spot and term markets, and how to interpret uranium companies' financials. (33:18) Lastly, Rick calls out several commodities that present good investing opportunities today. He describes one of them as "stupidly cheap"... another he says is hated by investors and its market is in disarray... and the final two, he explains, are being sold off because of an incorrect belief that we don't need internal-combustion engines anymore. Rick even goes one step further and namedrops specific companies that could be worth looking into to take advantage of these price discounts. (49:15)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing new highs in the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index, and chipmaker Nvidia's stock. They analyze what these new highs mean, whether the U.S. is still in a mega-bubble, what's happening with the Japanese economy, and if Nvidia can continue its outperformance. (0:41) Next, Chaikin Analytics Chief Market Strategist Pete Carmasino joins the conversation and describes his investing style. He notes that he mainly looks at price. By using technical analysis and studying the fundamentals, trends, and the relative strength versus the market, he can decipher whether a stock is overbought. (20:28) Further, Pete talks about the importance of risk management and taking advantage of tactical moves. He gives investors advice for how to determine when something is a tactical sell or a tactical buy, discusses the relationship between technicals and fundamentals, and explains why he looks at both offensive and defensive sectors for investing opportunities.(25:55) Pete then details why he's never too bullish or bearish at any given time, plus how the Chaikin Analytics Power Gauge system helps him find potential winners. He describes his process for interpreting the signals and discusses the fundamentals he needs to see to be interested in a stock. (39:47) Lastly, Pete hammers home the importance of rates – particularly the unemployment rate, since the Federal Reserve uses it to determine the federal-funds rate. He also shares the top five subsectors currently and names a few stocks within those sectors that could be worth keeping an eye on. (51:15)

Dan and Corey kick things off by discussing bitcoin hitting a new multiyear high. They also critique a popular bullish argument for bitcoin, which is based off the U.S. dollar collapsing. After, they talk about the S&P 500 Index surpassing 5,000 for the first time ever and whether this level is sustainable in the long term. (0:40) Next, Harley Bassman of Simplify Asset Management joins the conversation and explains a concept called "convexity." He covers the three kinds of risk in bond investing, why short convexity is always lurking during market downturns, and why negative convexity is so difficult for investors to process. (24:53) Harley also goes into detail on mortgage-backed securities funds. He describes what mortgage bonds are, why they yield more than corporate bonds, and how the Federal Reserve plays a huge role in all of this. (32:20) Lastly, Harley talks about Simplify and how it offers a unique service by jamming derivatives of all kinds (futures, options, etc.) into ETFs so civilians can invest in them. He also discusses what it was like working at Merrill Lynch during the great financial crisis, gives general investing advice, and explains what pin risk is. (48:55)

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing debt spirals, death spirals, their effect on things like GDP and economic growth, and the increasing reliance on debt spending. They point out that the U.S. government's annual interest payment on debt will soon surpass the budget for national defense. Dan also speculates that the government is using illegal immigration as a means to depress wages. (0:41) Next, crypto expert Eric Wade joins the conversation by discussing his current thoughts on the crypto market as a whole. He notes that the U.S. just approved bitcoin spot ETFs, which will allow investors to profit from bitcoin without actually holding the token. He also brings up the bitcoin halving that's happening this April, AI's role in crypto, and how crypto is being used to solve real-world problems. Eric briefly name-drops two such cryptos that have real- world applications today. (22:08)After, he goes into detail on his new book called America vs. Americans: How Capitalism Has Failed a Capitalist Nation and What We Can Do About It. This book focuses on American "laborism," the shortcomings of our current capitalist system, and how all of this could be improved. Eric describes that government, economics, and politics are a lot closer together than they should be. He explores the history of capitalism and talks about the glaring flaws of the economic system that preceded it – mercantilism. (35:30) Eric then transitions into talking about laborism and how it could be an upgrade from capitalism. He spends the rest of the episode detailing how it could pull millions of folks out of poverty, why it would be so closely tied to education, and the fact it would call for a hard currency and a smaller government with less government intervention. As he explains, it could solve many of the country's problems. (42:35)

Dan and Corey begin the show by discussing evidence that we're still in a bear market. They bring up equal-weight indexes fizzling out since December, the now "Magnificent Six" tech stocks still dominating, and the possibility of a decade long sideways market. After, contrarian trader Jason Shapiro of digital publishing company Crowded Market Report joins the conversation and gives an overview of his trading style, his financial journey, and how his strategy differs from many other traders'. While others are looking to ride the trend, Jason explains that he's looking to "fade" it and find when the trend will turn. When speaking specifically about putting the risk-reward ratio in his favor over time, he says the discounting mechanism in the market is not price – it's participation. This segues into a discussion about how Jason's process works. He gives advice to individual investors who are just starting out, including warning of the dangers of following trends and "copy trading." He also details how trading goes against human nature. Then, Jason discusses automation in his field of work – when he uses it and when he ignores its advice – and provides some examples of his strategy in action. He emphasizes that market confirmation should always come first Lastly, Jason explains why he's so adamant about sharing his approaches and techniques with everyday investors that they can't find in traditional financial media. And you won't want to miss Jason's answer to the final question... He shares what he believes is the real secret behind making money in the markets.

Dan and Corey kick things off by discussing Argentine President Javier Milei's incendiary speech at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. They start by quoting some passages from it and covering the main themes – from the negative consequences of government intervention to potentially abolishing the central bank. After, they talk about why this type of rhetoric from a politician would never fly in the U.S., even though it reflects a lot of people's feelings. Next, Stansberry Research Director of Research Matt Weinschenk joins the conversation and elaborates on what type of investor he considers himself to be. He brings up value investing, the importance of bottom-up business-quality analysis, and how he uses quantitative tools to find the best businesses. Matt then explains the "Stansberry Score," which ranks nearly 5,000 stocks from first to last. It assigns each stock both an overall number and letter grade, plus letter grades for financials, capital efficiency, and valuation. Investors can use it to check ratings on stocks they may be interested in, or they can use it to find hidden gems. If you're interested in learning more about this tool and trying it for free, you can check it out at StansberryAnnouncement.com. Matt also goes into detail on The Quant Portfolio. This new portfolio is fully optimized and uses Stansberry Score data to evaluate each stock. Entirely using computers and algorithms, it looks at the relationships between each stock and picks out the best ones that will work together to provide the highest returns. And so far, it's blowing the market out of the water! Matt emphasizes that in the past two years of live testing, The Quant Portfolio is up 20%, while the market is only up 5. Lastly, Matt talks all things econometrics – what it is, whether it's worth studying, and its interplay with machine learning.

Dan and Corey kick off the show by discussing car-rental company Hertz selling one-third of its electric-vehicle ("EV") fleet and planning to reinvest in gas-powered cars. They talk about the reasons for this move, why EVs might not be a popular choice as rentals, signs that oil and gas companies are still thriving, and how the green-energy transition could lead to higher inflation. Next, welcome Stansberry Research analyst Greg Diamond joins the conversation and analyzes the current volatility in the markets. He explains that investors and the financial media believe the Federal Reserve has beaten inflation and is going to start cutting rates soon. But as Greg notes, the opposite is most likely to happen. He also goes into detail on his study of cycles. Then, Greg predicts important inflection points for 2024, describes how legendary trader W.D. Gann influenced his trading strategy, and explores the potential ramifications of the Fed ending its bank lending program in March. He also details why he'll be trading sectors for the first half of the year rather than individual stocks. Lastly, Greg talks about correlations between the S&P 500 and specific exchange-traded funds. He assesses what it means for the markets when divergences happen and how extreme volatility leads to great buying opportunities. As Greg sums things up, "I think it's going to be a rough ride for bulls and bears."

Dan and Corey begin the show by discussing Disney. They cover the company's ongoing proxy battle with Nelson Peltz, its recent deal with activist investor ValueAct Capital, the negative impacts of its "wokeism," the new Star Wars director's controversial past comments, and whether the stock is worth buying today. (0:40) Next, Jeff Muhlenkamp joins the conversation and gives his reaction to a "surprising" 2023. Plus, he talks about what's in store for the markets this year, why it's unclear whether we're headed for a recession or not since, and how you should structure your portfolio to protect you no matter what happens. (26:23) Then, Jeff explains what he learned from the great financial crisis in 2008 and how he applies it to his investing strategy today. He gives investors advice on everything from keeping some cash on hand to handling stocks that soar quickly. (35:40) Lastly, Jeff discusses regional banking (44:00), two notable stock buys (46:47), and his process for picking stocks (51:31). He details which metrics he looks at, why financial newsletters are good places to look for ideas, and how to know when to exit a stock.

Dan Ferris and Corey McLaughlin kick the episode off by reviewing their list of Top 10 Potential Surprises from 2023 and seeing if any of the surprises materialized. Included in this list was what could happen to the S&P 500 Index, meme stocks GameStop and AMC Entertainment, inflation, bitcoin, mortgage rates, and gold. (0:32) After, Dan and Corey share their new list of potential surprises for 2024... Magnificent Seven perform poorly (9:38) S&P 500 negative annual return (13:16) Rate cuts (15:58) Gold hits $3,000 (19:15) Bitcoin falls 50%-plus (24:04) PCE at 4% (28:08) Donald Trump presidency (31:51) Nasty recession (37:27) 10-year yields above 4% (42:15) S&P 500 drops 20% in a single day (44:52

On this week's special mailbag episode of Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan Ferris and Corey McLaughlin are answering some of the most interesting questions they've received in recent weeks from subscribers. They tackle everything that has been on your mind – and a few things that you probably haven't even considered. Dan and Corey kick things off with questions about whether the green-energy movement and threats to eliminate fossil fuels will boost the price of oil... the broken housing market in the U.S. and what it means for homebuilders... nuclear energy's potential as a big source of power in America... and where uranium prices are headed next based on the supply-and-demand picture. Next, Dan and Corey address a listener who hates that they let the cat out of the bag on the upside in farmland... and respond to another listener who wants them to talk more about specific stocks and less about the Federal Reserve. Plus, Dan and Corey answer questions about political correctness, the love of money being the root of all evil, how to profit from war, and why they prefer U.S. Treasurys to money-market funds. Finally, Dan and Corey discuss the threat the high national debt level poses for the U.S., the development of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as a geopolitical and economic power, and whether the U.S. losing its world reserve currency status would really be such a bad thing.

Dan and Corey kick off the podcast by discussing 2023 as a whole. They talk about the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new all-time high recently and investors looking forward to the Federal Reserve cutting rates. Plus, they go over what they're bullish on for 2024 – including homebuilders, bitcoin, and energy, among others. Next, author and hedge-fund manager Hari Krishnan joins the podcast to discuss his toolbox of strategies for profiting after a market sell-off. He notes that there are times that are great for buying credit, while other times aren't so good. And the same principle applies to other areas of the market as well, like with volatility. The conversation then shifts to how the average investor could utilize Hari's strategies. He gives a few examples of what to do in different scenarios. And he especially emphasizes the importance of having a plan. Further, Hari details how he assesses and categorizes risk. He describes why he looks at consistency across different asset classes and how this helps him find winning investments. Plus, Hari talks about the cycles of volatility, using equities as an example. He explains that risk taking drives the market upward, which leads to even more risk taking. It then becomes a vicious cycle that feeds on itself until it breaks. Finally, Dan asks Hari for his opinions on the S&P 500 Index's recent rally. Hari brings up the fact that there are currently high levels of complacency in the markets, and he argues that now is a great time for investors to think about hedges for their portfolios. He finishes by urging investors to look beyond the U.S. stock market and to broaden their opportunities with other asset classes.